Trump's Budget
POSTED BY: JEWELSTAITEFAN
UPDATED: Monday, July 13, 2026 16:10
VIEWED: 32160
PAGE 24 of 32
Updated with the CBO.
I think I will go forward with data from the Monthly Treasury Statement each month. It has already been shown that CBO distorts and Fakes their data, and the more accurate MTS is usually less than a week later.
I won't redo all the past years, but will look up the FY2019 data.
The projected Deficit numbers will continue to be from CBO, since I have not seen Treasury delve into that. I should check OMB.
https://fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/mts/
https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/mts/mts0819.p
df
CBO still has this new format to their report, which again tried to hide the numbers, since highly partisan Deep State CBO was too incompetent to report clearly.
This looks like an interesting resource linky:
https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/major-recurring-reports#9
https://WWW.CBO.Gov/about/press-center
Apr 2018 CBO estimate:
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53821#section2
These data sources actually seem to correlate to the figures in the Budget Statements.
I'll try to post some data to breakdown how the projections progress.
The 1st column is Category and Fiscal Year. Categories are Revenue, Outlays, Surplus/Deficit (estimate) and Surplus/Deficit (Actual, or corrected). Projected is the figure that CBO projected for the FY, most recent at the time of the report. Proportional Percent is the cumulative Deficit compared to the actual FY Total. For the newest year, % Projection is based upon the historical proportion for that month of the cycle.
Each FY has 2 groups. First group is the individual month data. Second group is the cumulative Deficit for that FY so far.
Figures in Billions.
CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept
Rev16 $211 $205 $350 $314 $169 $228 $438 $225 $330 $210 $231 $358
Out16 $347 $270 $364 $258 $362 $336 $332 $277 $323 $323 $338 $323
S/D16 -136 -$65 -$14 +$55 -193 -108 +106 -$53 +$06 -113 -107 +$35
Rev16 $211 $416 $766 1079 1248 1476 1915 2139 2469 2679 2910 3268
Out16 $347 $617 $981 1240 1601 1936 2268 2545 2868 3191 3529 3852
S/D16 -136 -201 -216 -160 -353 -459 -353 -405 -399 -512 -619 -585
Projt -414 -414 -414 -544 -544 -534 -534 -534 -534 -534 -590 -590
Port% 23.2 34.4 36.9 27.4 60.3 78.5 60.3 69.2 68.2 87.5 106% 100%
Rev17 $222 $200 $319 $344 $172 $217 $456 $240 $339 $231 $226 $348
Out17 $267 $337 $347 $293 $364 $393 $273 $327 $426 $276 $336 $342
S/D17 -$46 -137 -$27 +$51 -192 -176 +182 -$87 -$87 -$45 -109 +$06
Rev17 $222 $422 $741 1085 1257 1473 1929 2168 2509 2738 2966 3314
Out17 $267 $604 $951 1243 1607 2000 2273 2600 3028 3307 3642 3982
S/D17 -$46 -183 -210 -159 -351 -527 -344 -432 -520 -568 -675 -668
Projt -594 -594 -594 -559 -559 -559 -559 -559 -693 -693 -693 -693
Port% 06.9 27.5 31.6 23.9 52.8 79.2 51.7 65.0 78.2 85.4 101% 100%
Rev18 $235 $210 $326 $362 $157 $213 $515 $217 $314 $225 $219 $343
Out18 $299 $344 $352 $311 $373 $420 $297 $361 $389 $301 $430 $227
SDEst -6$2 -134 -$26 +$51 -216 -207 +218 -144 -$75 -$75 -211 +116
Act18 -$63 -139 -$23 +$49 -215 -209 +214 -146 -$74 -$77 -214 +118
Rev18 $235 $445 $770 1131 1287 1499 2012 2224 2539 2766 2985 3328
Out18 $299 $643 $998 1306 1679 2097 2394 2754 3146 3448 3880 4110
SDEst -$62 -198 -228 -174 -392 -598 -382 -530 -607 -682 -894 -782
Act18 -$63 -202 -225 -176 -391 -600 -386 -532 -606 -683 -897 -779
Projt -873 -873 -873 -873 -873 -873 -804 -792 -793 -793 -793 -793
%Prj7 -911 -734 -713 -736 -741 -757 -747 -815 -776 -799 -885 -782
%Prj6 -271 -588 -609 -644 -648 -765 -640 -766 -890 -779 -845 -782
Port% 08.1 25.9 28.9 22.6 50.2 77.0 49.6 74.7 77.8 87.7 115% 100%
Rev19 $253 $205 $312 $340 $171
Out19 $353 $408 $324 $331 $398
SDEst -$98 -203 -012 +$09 -227
Act19 -100 -205 -013 +$09 -234
Rev19 $253 $458 $771 1111 1282
Out19 $353 $761 1088 1421 1819
SDEst -$98 -303 -317 -310 -537
Act19 -100 -305 -318 -310 -544
Projt -985 -985 -985 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897
%Pjt8 1212 1170 109
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Updated with the MTS, which came out sometime Thursday - the 9th Business Day of the month.
I think I will go forward with data from the Monthly Treasury Statement each month. It has already been shown that CBO distorts and Fakes their data, and the more accurate MTS is usually less than a week later.
I won't redo all the past years, but will look up the FY2019 data.
The projected Deficit numbers will continue to be from CBO, since I have not seen Treasury delve into that. I should check OMB.
https://fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/mts/
https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/mts/mts0819.p
df
CBO still has this new format to their report, which again tried to hide the numbers, since highly partisan Deep State CBO was too incompetent to report clearly.
This looks like an interesting resource linky:
https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/major-recurring-reports#9
https://WWW.CBO.Gov/about/press-center
Apr 2018 CBO estimate:
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53821#section2
These data sources actually seem to correlate to the figures in the Budget Statements.
I'll try to post some data to breakdown how the projections progress.
The 1st column is Category and Fiscal Year. Categories are Revenue, Outlays, Surplus/Deficit (estimate) and Surplus/Deficit (Actual, or corrected). Projected is the figure that CBO projected for the FY, most recent at the time of the report. Proportional Percent is the cumulative Deficit compared to the actual FY Total. For the newest year, % Projection is based upon the historical proportion for that month of the cycle.
Each FY has 2 groups. First group is the individual month data. Second group is the cumulative Deficit for that FY so far.
Figures in Billions.
CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept
Rev16 $211 $205 $350 $314 $169 $228 $438 $225 $330 $210 $231 $358
Out16 $347 $270 $364 $258 $362 $336 $332 $277 $323 $323 $338 $323
S/D16 -136 -$65 -$14 +$55 -193 -108 +106 -$53 +$06 -113 -107 +$35
Rev16 $211 $416 $766 1079 1248 1476 1915 2139 2469 2679 2910 3268
Out16 $347 $617 $981 1240 1601 1936 2268 2545 2868 3191 3529 3852
S/D16 -136 -201 -216 -160 -353 -459 -353 -405 -399 -512 -619 -585
Projt -414 -414 -414 -544 -544 -534 -534 -534 -534 -534 -590 -590
Port% 23.2 34.4 36.9 27.4 60.3 78.5 60.3 69.2 68.2 87.5 106% 100%
Rev17 $222 $200 $319 $344 $172 $217 $456 $240 $339 $231 $226 $348
Out17 $267 $337 $347 $293 $364 $393 $273 $327 $426 $276 $336 $342
S/D17 -$46 -137 -$27 +$51 -192 -176 +182 -$87 -$87 -$45 -109 +$06
Rev17 $222 $422 $741 1085 1257 1473 1929 2168 2509 2738 2966 3314
Out17 $267 $604 $951 1243 1607 2000 2273 2600 3028 3307 3642 3982
S/D17 -$46 -183 -210 -159 -351 -527 -344 -432 -520 -568 -675 -668
Projt -594 -594 -594 -559 -559 -559 -559 -559 -693 -693 -693 -693
Port% 06.9 27.5 31.6 23.9 52.8 79.2 51.7 65.0 78.2 85.4 101% 100%
Rev18 $235 $210 $326 $362 $157 $213 $515 $217 $314 $225 $219 $343
Out18 $299 $344 $352 $311 $373 $420 $297 $361 $389 $301 $430 $227
SDEst -6$2 -134 -$26 +$51 -216 -207 +218 -144 -$75 -$75 -211 +116
Act18 -$63 -139 -$23 +$49 -215 -209 +214 -146 -$74 -$77 -214 +118
Rev18 $235 $445 $770 1131 1287 1499 2012 2224 2539 2766 2985 3328
Out18 $299 $643 $998 1306 1679 2097 2394 2754 3146 3448 3880 4110
SDEst -$62 -198 -228 -174 -392 -598 -382 -530 -607 -682 -894 -782
Act18 -$63 -202 -225 -176 -391 -600 -386 -532 -606 -683 -897 -779
Projt -873 -873 -873 -873 -873 -873 -804 -792 -793 -793 -793 -793
%Prj7 -911 -734 -713 -736 -741 -757 -747 -815 -776 -799 -885 -782
%Prj6 -271 -588 -609 -644 -648 -765 -640 -766 -890 -779 -845 -782
Port% 08.1 25.9 28.9 22.6 50.2 77.0 49.6 74.7 77.8 87.7 115% 100%
Rev19 $253 $205 $312 $340 $171
Out19 $353 $408 $324 $331 $398
SDEst -$98 -203 -012 +$09 -227
Act19 -100 -205 -013 +$09 -234
Rev19 $253 $458 $771 1111 1282
Out19 $353 $761 1088 1421 1819
SDEst -$98 -303 -317 -310 -537
Act19 -100 -305 -318 -310 -544
Projt
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Updated with 27 Nov report data.
Updated with new GDP data from 29 August, using the New Revised data from July 2019:
$201.0 B for 2019Q2 (est).
The 4th consecutive Quarter showing the prior 4 Quarters increased more than $1 Trillion GDP - which never before happened in a 4 Quarter span.
The last several reports have been persistently rounding off the figure totals by 3 or 4 digits, so that the figures I'm posting are based upon addition, stacked many times, and could be subject to correction.
Here I'll include a column showing how far behind the pace the Obamanomics years were.
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
This data does appear to be listed under Calendar Year Quarters as opposed to Fiscal Year Quarters elsewhere.
Yes, this is Table.1.1.5 (use the Modify button to adjust dates) at this link:
https://bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?
This GDP data is from BEA News Release Archives. Current-Dollar GDP.
I noticed a trend among the BEA data. The figures from BEA do not match other info. But they make monthly reports, each Quarter has an Advanced Estimate, then 2nd Estimate, then 3rd Estimate, before the final figure.
With new data from 27 July 2018:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
00 09890.4 10002.9 10247.7 10319.8 10107.4 10252.3
01 10439.0 10472.9 10597.8 10596.3 10526.5 10581.8 10659.7 --133
02 10660.3 10789.0 10893.2 10992.1 10833.6 10936.4 11212.0 --380
03 11071.5 11183.5 11312.9 11567.3 11283.8 11458.2 11764.3 --460
04 11769.3 11920.2 12109.0 12303.3 12025.4 12213.7 12316.5 --291
05 12522.4 12761.3 12910.0 13142.9 12834.1 13036.6 12868.8 --55
06 13332.3 13603.9 13749.8 13867.5 13638.4 13814.6 13421.1 +217
07 14037.2 14208.6 14382.4 14535.0 14290.8 14451.9 13973.3 +317
08 14681.5 14651.0 14805.6 14835.2 14743.3 14712.8 14525.6 +218
09 14559.5 14394.5 14352.9 14420.3 14431.9 14448.9 15077.9 --646
10 14628.0 14721.4 14926.1 15079.9 14838.8 14992.3 15630.2 --791
11 15240.8 15285.8 15496.2 15591.9 15403.7 15542.6 16182.5 --779
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16603.8 16784.9 17288.1 --344
14 17083.1 17102.9 17425.8 17719.8 17392.7 17521.7 17840.3 --448
15 17838.5 17970.4 18221.3 18331.1 18090.3 18219.3 18392.6 --302
16 18354.4 18409.1 18640.7 18799.6 18551.0 18707.2 18944.8 --394
17 18979.2 19162.6 19359.1 19588.1 19272.3 19485.4 19497.1 --225
18 19831.8 20041.0 20411.9 20658.2 20210.7 20500.6 20049.4 +161
19 20865.1 21066.1 2134?.?
New altered data starting 26 July 2019:
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16603.8 16784.9 17288.1 --344
14 17083.1 17104.6 17432.9 17721.7 17335.6 17527.3
15 17849.9 17984.2 18219.4 18344.7 18099.8 18224.8
16 18350.8 18424.3 18637.3 18806.7 18554.8 18715.1
17 18991.9 19190.4 19356.6 19611.7 19287.7 19519.4
18 19918.9 20163.2 20510.2 20749.8 20335.5 20580.3
19 20897.8 21098.8 21340.2 21542.0
This data meshes well. Taking the average of the 4 FY Quarters produces the FY figure listed by Treasury, except for FY 2017. This is because each quarter has the data multiplied by 4, to present as a full year's rate.
Something to note: Obama constantly projected that he would generate repeated increases to GDP of over $1 Trillion from one year to the next. Yet Obamanomics never allowed growth like that to occur. Not one single year did the GDP grow by $1 Trillion. Not during Obamanomics, nor ever before. But Trump accomplishes this feat, in only his very first full year - even though Obama's overly optimistic predictions did not identify it would be possible this soon.
Peak Quarters of growth: (including all-time Top 10 prior to Trump)
347.0 FY2018 Q3
328.3 FY2014 Q3
307.2 FY2018 Q1
288.8 FY2014 Q4
271.6 FY2006 Q2
255.1 FY20
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Updated with 20 Dec report data.
Updated with new GDP data from 29 August, using the New Revised data from July 2019:
$201.0 B for 2019Q2 (est).
The 4th consecutive Quarter showing the prior 4 Quarters increased more than $1 Trillion GDP - which never before happened in a 4 Quarter span.
The last several reports have been persistently rounding off the figure totals by 3 or 4 digits, so that the figures I'm posting are based upon addition, stacked many times, and could be subject to correction.
Here I'll include a column showing how far behind the pace the Obamanomics years were.
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
This data does appear to be listed under Calendar Year Quarters as opposed to Fiscal Year Quarters elsewhere.
Yes, this is Table.1.1.5 (use the Modify button to adjust dates) at this link:
https://bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?
This GDP data is from BEA News Release Archives. Current-Dollar GDP.
I noticed a trend among the BEA data. The figures from BEA do not match other info. But they make monthly reports, each Quarter has an Advanced Estimate, then 2nd Estimate, then 3rd Estimate, before the final figure.
With new data from 27 July 2018:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
00 09890.4 10002.9 10247.7 10319.8 10107.4 10252.3
01 10439.0 10472.9 10597.8 10596.3 10526.5 10581.8 10659.7 --133
02 10660.3 10789.0 10893.2 10992.1 10833.6 10936.4 11212.0 --380
03 11071.5 11183.5 11312.9 11567.3 11283.8 11458.2 11764.3 --460
04 11769.3 11920.2 12109.0 12303.3 12025.4 12213.7 12316.5 --291
05 12522.4 12761.3 12910.0 13142.9 12834.1 13036.6 12868.8 --55
06 13332.3 13603.9 13749.8 13867.5 13638.4 13814.6 13421.1 +217
07 14037.2 14208.6 14382.4 14535.0 14290.8 14451.9 13973.3 +317
08 14681.5 14651.0 14805.6 14835.2 14743.3 14712.8 14525.6 +218
09 14559.5 14394.5 14352.9 14420.3 14431.9 14448.9 15077.9 --646
10 14628.0 14721.4 14926.1 15079.9 14838.8 14992.3 15630.2 --791
11 15240.8 15285.8 15496.2 15591.9 15403.7 15542.6 16182.5 --779
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16603.8 16784.9 17288.1 --344
14 17083.1 17102.9 17425.8 17719.8 17392.7 17521.7 17840.3 --448
15 17838.5 17970.4 18221.3 18331.1 18090.3 18219.3 18392.6 --302
16 18354.4 18409.1 18640.7 18799.6 18551.0 18707.2 18944.8 --394
17 18979.2 19162.6 19359.1 19588.1 19272.3 19485.4 19497.1 --225
18 19831.8 20041.0 20411.9 20658.2 20210.7 20500.6 20049.4 +161
19 20865.1 21066.1 2134?.?
New altered data starting 26 July 2019:
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16603.8 16784.9 17288.1 --344
14 17083.1 17104.6 17432.9 17721.7 17335.6 17527.3
15 17849.9 17984.2 18219.4 18344.7 18099.8 18224.8
16 18350.8 18424.3 18637.3 18806.7 18554.8 18715.1
17 18991.9 19190.4 19356.6 19611.7 19287.7 19519.4
18 19918.9 20163.2 20510.2 20749.8 20335.5 20580.3
19 20897.8 21098.8 21340.2 21542.5
This data meshes well. Taking the average of the 4 FY Quarters produces the FY figure listed by Treasury, except for FY 2017. This is because each quarter has the data multiplied by 4, to present as a full year's rate.
Something to note: Obama constantly projected that he would generate repeated increases to GDP of over $1 Trillion from one year to the next. Yet Obamanomics never allowed growth like that to occur. Not one single year did the GDP grow by $1 Trillion. Not during Obamanomics, nor ever before. But Trump accomplishes this feat, in only his very first full year - even though Obama's overly optimistic predictions did not identify it would be possible this soon.
Peak Quarters of growth: (including all-time Top 10 prior to Trump)
347.0 FY2018 Q3
328.3 FY2014 Q3
307.2 FY2018 Q1
288.8 FY2014 Q4
271.6 FY2006 Q2
255.1 FY20
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Updated with the MTS for Nov 2019.
I think I will go forward with data from the Monthly Treasury Statement each month. It has already been shown that CBO distorts and Fakes their data, and the more accurate MTS is usually less than a week later.
I won't redo all the past years, but will look up the FY2019 data.
The projected Deficit numbers will continue to be from CBO, since I have not seen Treasury delve into that. I should check OMB.
https://fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/mts/
https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/mts/mts0819.p
df
CBO still has this new format to their report, which again tried to hide the numbers, since highly partisan Deep State CBO was too incompetent to report clearly.
This looks like an interesting resource linky:
https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/major-recurring-reports#9
https://WWW.CBO.Gov/about/press-center
Apr 2018 CBO estimate:
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53821#section2
These data sources actually seem to correlate to the figures in the Budget Statements.
I'll try to post some data to breakdown how the projections progress.
The 1st column is Category and Fiscal Year. Categories are Revenue, Outlays, Surplus/Deficit (estimate) and Surplus/Deficit (Actual, or corrected). Projected is the figure that CBO projected for the FY, most recent at the time of the report. Proportional Percent is the cumulative Deficit compared to the actual FY Total. For the newest year, % Projection is based upon the historical proportion for that month of the cycle.
Each FY has 2 groups. First group is the individual month data. Second group is the cumulative Deficit for that FY so far.
Figures in Billions.
CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept
Rev16 $211 $205 $350 $314 $169 $228 $438 $225 $330 $210 $231 $358
Out16 $347 $270 $364 $258 $362 $336 $332 $277 $323 $323 $338 $323
S/D16 -136 -$65 -$14 +$55 -193 -108 +106 -$53 +$06 -113 -107 +$35
Rev16 $211 $416 $766 1079 1248 1476 1915 2139 2469 2679 2910 3268
Out16 $347 $617 $981 1240 1601 1936 2268 2545 2868 3191 3529 3852
S/D16 -136 -201 -216 -160 -353 -459 -353 -405 -399 -512 -619 -585
Projt -414 -414 -414 -544 -544 -534 -534 -534 -534 -534 -590 -590
Port% 23.2 34.4 36.9 27.4 60.3 78.5 60.3 69.2 68.2 87.5 106% 100%
Rev17 $222 $200 $319 $344 $172 $217 $456 $240 $339 $231 $226 $348
Out17 $267 $337 $347 $293 $364 $393 $273 $327 $426 $276 $336 $342
S/D17 -$46 -137 -$27 +$51 -192 -176 +182 -$87 -$87 -$45 -109 +$06
Rev17 $222 $422 $741 1085 1257 1473 1929 2168 2509 2738 2966 3314
Out17 $267 $604 $951 1243 1607 2000 2273 2600 3028 3307 3642 3982
S/D17 -$46 -183 -210 -159 -351 -527 -344 -432 -520 -568 -675 -668
Projt -594 -594 -594 -559 -559 -559 -559 -559 -693 -693 -693 -693
Port% 06.9 27.5 31.6 23.9 52.8 79.2 51.7 65.0 78.2 85.4 101% 100%
Rev18 $235 $210 $326 $362 $157 $213 $515 $217 $314 $225 $219 $343
Out18 $299 $344 $352 $311 $373 $420 $297 $361 $389 $301 $430 $227
SDEst -6$2 -134 -$26 +$51 -216 -207 +218 -144 -$75 -$75 -211 +116
Act18 -$63 -139 -$23 +$49 -215 -209 +214 -146 -$74 -$77 -214 +118
Rev18 $235 $445 $770 1131 1287 1499 2012 2224 2539 2766 2985 3328
Out18 $299 $643 $998 1306 1679 2097 2394 2754 3146 3448 3880 4110
SDEst -$62 -198 -228 -174 -392 -598 -382 -530 -607 -682 -894 -782
Act18 -$63 -202 -225 -176 -391 -600 -386 -532 -606 -683 -897 -779
Projt -873 -873 -873 -873 -873 -873 -804 -792 -793 -793 -793 -793
%Prj7 -911 -734 -713 -736 -741 -757 -747 -815 -776 -799 -885 -782
%Prj6 -271 -588 -609 -644 -648 -765 -640 -766 -890 -779 -845 -782
Port% 08.1 25.9 28.9 22.6 50.2 77.0 49.6 74.7 77.8 87.7 115% 100%
Rev19 $253 $205 $312 $340 $171
Out19 $353 $408 $324 $331 $398
SDEst -$98 -203 -012 +$09 -227
Act19 -100 -205 -013 +$09 -234
Rev19 $253 $458 $771 1111 1282
Out19 $353 $761 1088 1421 1819
SDEst -$98 -303 -317 -310 -537
Act19 -100 -305 -318 -310 -544
Projt -985 -985 -985 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897
%Pjt8
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Updated with the MTS for Dec 2019.
I think I will go forward with data from the Monthly Treasury Statement each month. It has already been shown that CBO distorts and Fakes their data, and the more accurate MTS is usually less than a week later.
I won't redo all the past years, but will look up the FY2019 data.
The projected Deficit numbers will continue to be from CBO, since I have not seen Treasury delve into that. I should check OMB.
https://fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/mts/
https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/mts/mts0819.p
df
CBO still has this new format to their report, which again tried to hide the numbers, since highly partisan Deep State CBO was too incompetent to report clearly.
This looks like an interesting resource linky:
https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/major-recurring-reports#9
https://WWW.CBO.Gov/about/press-center
Apr 2018 CBO estimate:
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53821#section2
These data sources actually seem to correlate to the figures in the Budget Statements.
I'll try to post some data to breakdown how the projections progress.
The 1st column is Category and Fiscal Year. Categories are Revenue, Outlays, Surplus/Deficit (estimate) and Surplus/Deficit (Actual, or corrected). Projected is the figure that CBO projected for the FY, most recent at the time of the report. Proportional Percent is the cumulative Deficit compared to the actual FY Total. For the newest year, % Projection is based upon the historical proportion for that month of the cycle.
Each FY has 2 groups. First group is the individual month data. Second group is the cumulative Deficit for that FY so far.
Figures in Billions.
CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept
Rev16 $211 $205 $350 $314 $169 $228 $438 $225 $330 $210 $231 $358
Out16 $347 $270 $364 $258 $362 $336 $332 $277 $323 $323 $338 $323
S/D16 -136 -$65 -$14 +$55 -193 -108 +106 -$53 +$06 -113 -107 +$35
Rev16 $211 $416 $766 1079 1248 1476 1915 2139 2469 2679 2910 3268
Out16 $347 $617 $981 1240 1601 1936 2268 2545 2868 3191 3529 3852
S/D16 -136 -201 -216 -160 -353 -459 -353 -405 -399 -512 -619 -585
Projt -414 -414 -414 -544 -544 -534 -534 -534 -534 -534 -590 -590
Port% 23.2 34.4 36.9 27.4 60.3 78.5 60.3 69.2 68.2 87.5 106% 100%
Rev17 $222 $200 $319 $344 $172 $217 $456 $240 $339 $231 $226 $348
Out17 $267 $337 $347 $293 $364 $393 $273 $327 $426 $276 $336 $342
S/D17 -$46 -137 -$27 +$51 -192 -176 +182 -$87 -$87 -$45 -109 +$06
Rev17 $222 $422 $741 1085 1257 1473 1929 2168 2509 2738 2966 3314
Out17 $267 $604 $951 1243 1607 2000 2273 2600 3028 3307 3642 3982
S/D17 -$46 -183 -210 -159 -351 -527 -344 -432 -520 -568 -675 -668
Projt -594 -594 -594 -559 -559 -559 -559 -559 -693 -693 -693 -693
Port% 06.9 27.5 31.6 23.9 52.8 79.2 51.7 65.0 78.2 85.4 101% 100%
Rev18 $235 $210 $326 $362 $157 $213 $515 $217 $314 $225 $219 $343
Out18 $299 $344 $352 $311 $373 $420 $297 $361 $389 $301 $430 $227
SDEst -6$2 -134 -$26 +$51 -216 -207 +218 -144 -$75 -$75 -211 +116
Act18 -$63 -139 -$23 +$49 -215 -209 +214 -146 -$74 -$77 -214 +118
Rev18 $235 $445 $770 1131 1287 1499 2012 2224 2539 2766 2985 3328
Out18 $299 $643 $998 1306 1679 2097 2394 2754 3146 3448 3880 4110
SDEst -$62 -198 -228 -174 -392 -598 -382 -530 -607 -682 -894 -782
Act18 -$63 -202 -225 -176 -391 -600 -386 -532 -606 -683 -897 -779
Projt -873 -873 -873 -873 -873 -873 -804 -792 -793 -793 -793 -793
%Prj7 -911 -734 -713 -736 -741 -757 -747 -815 -776 -799 -885 -782
%Prj6 -271 -588 -609 -644 -648 -765 -640 -766 -890 -779 -845 -782
Port% 08.1 25.9 28.9 22.6 50.2 77.0 49.6 74.7 77.8 87.7 115% 100%
Rev19 $253 $205 $312 $340 $171
Out19 $353 $408 $324 $331 $398
SDEst -$98 -203 -012 +$09 -227
Act19 -100 -205 -013 +$09 -234
Rev19 $253 $458 $771 1111 1282
Out19 $353 $761 1088 1421 1819
SDEst -$98 -303 -317 -310 -537
Act19 -100 -305 -318 -310 -544
Projt -985 -985 -985 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897
%Pjt8
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You Should Be Absolutely Furious Over Donald Trump’s $1 Trillion Deficit
Is it fair to be mad about the debt, given the way Republicans spent years calling for spending cuts when we were still fighting our way out of the recession? Given the way Trump has added to the red ink in large part by slashing taxes for the wealthy? Given that the debt will inevitably be weaponized as an excuse to attack spending on important government programs the second a Democrat is in office? Absolutely. You should be furious about it.
Around the time Trump entered office, the CBO projected that the budget gap was on pace to hit $775 billion by 2020, or 3.6 percent of the economy. Capitol Hill’s forecasters now think it will reach $1.015 trillion instead, equal to about 4.6 percent of GDP. That extra percentage point is what we should probably think of as the Trump bump. It’s a result of both the GOP’s 2017 tax bill (no, it did not pay for itself) and increased military expenditures.
More at https://slate.com/business/2020/01/trumps-billion-dollar-deficit-shoul
d-make-you-furious.html
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
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Yup. And it would have been 3 Trillion had Hillary won.
There's no putting the shit back in that horse, I'm afraid.
Smoke if you got 'em.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Quote:Not even one Democrat voted for Trump's tax cut bill, but there were enough Republican Congressmen to get it to Trump's White House for a signature. If Hillary was in the White House, she would veto it. The GOP doesn't have the 2/3rds majority to override that veto. One simple veto is worth about $10 trillion in higher taxes on the wealthiest 1 percent of American tax payers, who can well afford to pay as I know from experience.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Yup. And it would have been 3 Trillion had Hillary won.
There's no putting the shit back in that horse, I'm afraid.
Smoke if you got 'em.
"Republicans pass historic tax cuts without a single Democratic vote"
www.axios.com/republicans-pass-historic-tax-cuts-without-a-single-demo
cratic-vote-1515110718-8cdf005c-c1c9-481a-975b-72336765ebe4.html
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
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GDP.
Updated with 30 Jan 2020 report data.
Updated with new GDP data from 29 August, using the New Revised data from July 2019:
$201.0 B for 2019Q2 (est).
The 4th consecutive Quarter showing the prior 4 Quarters increased more than $1 Trillion GDP - which never before happened in a 4 Quarter span.
The last several reports have been persistently rounding off the figure totals by 3 or 4 digits, so that the figures I'm posting are based upon addition, stacked many times, and could be subject to correction.
Here I'll include a column showing how far behind the pace the Obamanomics years were.
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
This data does appear to be listed under Calendar Year Quarters as opposed to Fiscal Year Quarters elsewhere.
Yes, this is Table.1.1.5 (use the Modify button to adjust dates) at this link:
https://bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?
This GDP data is from BEA News Release Archives. Current-Dollar GDP.
I noticed a trend among the BEA data. The figures from BEA do not match other info. But they make monthly reports, each Quarter has an Advanced Estimate, then 2nd Estimate, then 3rd Estimate, before the final figure.
With new data from 27 July 2018:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
00 09890.4 10002.9 10247.7 10319.8 10107.4 10252.3
01 10439.0 10472.9 10597.8 10596.3 10526.5 10581.8 10659.7 --133
02 10660.3 10789.0 10893.2 10992.1 10833.6 10936.4 11212.0 --380
03 11071.5 11183.5 11312.9 11567.3 11283.8 11458.2 11764.3 --460
04 11769.3 11920.2 12109.0 12303.3 12025.4 12213.7 12316.5 --291
05 12522.4 12761.3 12910.0 13142.9 12834.1 13036.6 12868.8 --55
06 13332.3 13603.9 13749.8 13867.5 13638.4 13814.6 13421.1 +217
07 14037.2 14208.6 14382.4 14535.0 14290.8 14451.9 13973.3 +317
08 14681.5 14651.0 14805.6 14835.2 14743.3 14712.8 14525.6 +218
09 14559.5 14394.5 14352.9 14420.3 14431.9 14448.9 15077.9 --646
10 14628.0 14721.4 14926.1 15079.9 14838.8 14992.3 15630.2 --791
11 15240.8 15285.8 15496.2 15591.9 15403.7 15542.6 16182.5 --779
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16603.8 16784.9 17288.1 --344
14 17083.1 17102.9 17425.8 17719.8 17392.7 17521.7 17840.3 --448
15 17838.5 17970.4 18221.3 18331.1 18090.3 18219.3 18392.6 --302
16 18354.4 18409.1 18640.7 18799.6 18551.0 18707.2 18944.8 --394
17 18979.2 19162.6 19359.1 19588.1 19272.3 19485.4 19497.1 --225
18 19831.8 20041.0 20411.9 20658.2 20210.7 20500.6 20049.4 +161
19 20865.1 21066.1 2134?.?
New altered data starting 26 July 2019:
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16603.8 16784.9 17288.1 --344
14 17083.1 17104.6 17432.9 17721.7 17335.6 17527.3
15 17849.9 17984.2 18219.4 18344.7 18099.8 18224.8
16 18350.8 18424.3 18637.3 18806.7 18554.8 18715.1
17 18991.9 19190.4 19356.6 19611.7 19287.7 19519.4
18 19918.9 20163.2 20510.2 20749.8 20335.5 20580.3
19 20897.8 21098.8 21340.2 21542.5
20 21734.2
This data meshes well. Taking the average of the 4 FY Quarters produces the FY figure listed by Treasury, except for FY 2017. This is because each quarter has the data multiplied by 4, to present as a full year's rate.
Something to note: Obama constantly projected that he would generate repeated increases to GDP of over $1 Trillion from one year to the next. Yet Obamanomics never allowed growth like that to occur. Not one single year did the GDP grow by $1 Trillion. Not during Obamanomics, nor ever before. But Trump accomplishes this feat, in only his very first full year - even though Obama's overly optimistic predictions did not identify it would be possible this soon.
Peak Quarters of growth: (including all-time Top 10 prior to Trump)
347.0 FY2018 Q3
328.3 FY2014 Q3
307.2 FY2018 Q1
288.8 FY2014 Q4
271.6 FY2006 Q2
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