Trump's Budget

Quote:

---

Originally posted by second:

Quote:

---

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
You should try reading the news sometime. Even the Deep State admits that Trump's Tax Reform will be saving more than a $Trillion in the next 15 years.
The projections of Dem disaster was already in the Budgets from Obama, no new or further updates were needed. But Trump has vastly reduced those.

---

JewelStaiteFan, show me that fake news story with the $1 Trillion savings. I got stories that say there are no savings:

---

The Fake News story from the Deep State CBO:
http://fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=18&tid=61505&mid=10534
14#1053414


Today CBO released its Analysis of Trump's FY2019 Federal Budget.
To reconcile it's prior projections with Reality it had to begrudgingly increase the Revenues, decrease the Outlays, Deficit, and Debt, and increase the GDP - at least for FY2018. And these revisions are compared to the delusions they persisted with as of LAST MONTH, or 7 weeks ago.
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53884

The CBO report is from April 2018, which was delayed from January due to the legislation passed in November 2017, February, March 2018. It only includes non-legislative factors up to mid-February. It is https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53651
For comparison, I'll post on the same Table as Trump's projections.


The left has President's Federal Budget, FY2019, and then the CBO estimates from April 2018, and then the CBO Analysis from May 2018:

Year Rvnu Outl Defct NtGDP || CBRv CBOt CBD CBGDP || CBR CBOt CDOD CBGDP
2028 5818 6181 363 32602 || 5520 7046 1526 29803 || 5264 6351 1087 29803
2027 5506 5955 450 31089 || 5299 6615 1316 28677 || 5063 6029 $965 28677
2026 5231 5748 517 29647 || 5002 6322 1320 27608 || 4886 5778 $893 27608
2025 4946 5526 579 28253 || 4663 6015 1352 26595 || 4659 5553 $895 26595
2024 4675 5348 672 26900 || 4444 5688 1244 25583 || 4446 5305 $859 25583
2023 4386 5160 774 25605 || 4228 5500 1273 24621 || 4232 5202 $971 24621
2022 4089 4941 852 24369 || 4012 5288 1276 23716 || 4016 5055 1039 23716
2021 3838 4754 916 23194 || 3827 4949 1123 22872 || 3830 4775 $945 22872
2020 3609 4596 987 22067 || 3678 4685 1008 22034 || 3682 4548 $866 22034
2019 3422 4407 984 21003 || 3490 4470 $981 21136 || 3493 4448 $955 21136
2018 3340 4214 873 20029 || 3338 4142 $804 20103 || 3339 4131 $792 20103
2017 3316 3982 665 19177 || 3316 3982 $665 19178 || 3316 3982 $665 19178

In the left section, Trump's Budget, compared to Obama projections:
The Revenue projections are reduced from the exaggerated amounts Obama assumed. Deficits upcoming are increased due to more realistic projections. For 2017 the figures were updated from Obama's base projections and last year corrections. Trump's GDP is revised up, and Expenditures are revised down.
Trump's Budget accumulates $8.632 Trillion in Deficits by 2028.
Indicating the Federal Debt would add about $13 Trillion in that period.

Which holds true to historical practice. Democrats always exaggerate or overestimate Revenues and downplay or underestimate Expenditures, and Conservative Republicans always underestimate Revenue projections and overestimate Expenditure projections (but Democrats then find some pork to fill in the difference).

In the middle section, the CBO projections:
The Liberal biased practices of the CBO bloat the Expenditures, and undervalue the Revenues and long-term GDP, thus exaggerate the Deficits. The GDP in the short term is more because even the Liberal bias was unable to deny the reality of Trump's Fiscal Policies and subsequent GDP growth.
The CBO projections bloat the accumulative Deficits to $13.888 Trillion by 2028.
Indicating the Federal Debt would add about $20 Trillion in that period - practically doubling from it's current level. Which would exaggerate by $7 Trillion what Trump's Budget projected, or about 150%

The section to the right is the CBO Analysis of Trump's Budget.

NOTIFY: Y  | REPLY  | REPLY WITH QUOTE  | PERMALINK  | TOP  | HOME

Quote:

---

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

The preceding/underlying $7 Trillion is the Legacy costs and increases from Obamanomics.

---

During the 2016 presidential campaign, Trump promised he would "eliminate" the nation’s debt in eight years. "Eliminate". Did you see that word? That means zero.
www.thebalance.com/trump-plans-to-reduce-national-debt-4114401

Instead, his budgets would add $9.1 trillion during that time. It would increase the U.S. debt to $29 trillion according to Trump's own budget estimates from the White House, not from Congress, not from the Treasury, but from the White House. That is a very poor showing, especially when the economy is booming. Trump can't make his outlays less than or equal to his receipts. So sad. So incompetent.
www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/budget-fy2020.pdf

We know that $500 billion in taxes are not collected each year. That would go at least halfway to keeping the National Debt from increasing, but only if Donald will collect the money owed. He has not tried for the last 2 years to collect so we won't see him trying in the next 6 years. But he could, if he wanted to! I look forward to Donald sharing his tax returns with the public to encourage Americans to not cheat on taxes. He doesn't cheat and he will prove it!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tax_evasion_in_the_United_States#Estimat
es_of_lost_government_revenue

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

NOTIFY: Y  | REPLY  | REPLY WITH QUOTE  | PERMALINK  | TOP  | HOME

Quote of the Day: Spend, Spend, Spend

From Mitch McConnell, advising President Trump on deficit reduction:

Mulvaney and Vought, among others, have sought to convince Trump to care more about cutting spending and the deficit. But Trump has rebuffed many of their proposed cuts as deficits soar. Trump recently told West Wing aides that Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) told him no politician had ever lost office for spending more money. Two people with direct knowledge confirmed that McConnell delivered that message in a June phone call about budget sequestration.

This confirms that Republicans are the party of fiscal irresponsibility.

www.washingtonpost.com/politics/his-own-fiefdom-mulvaney-builds-an-emp
ire-for-the-right-wing-as-trumps-chief-of-staff/2019/07/14/85c5ebdc-942b-11e9-b570-6416efdc0803_story.html


The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

NOTIFY: Y  | REPLY  | REPLY WITH QUOTE  | PERMALINK  | TOP  | HOME

BEA released a report today, but the numbers seem goofy. It claims the 1st Calendar Quarter had $201.0 B increase of Current-Dollar GDP. Says this is the same as in the last report.

And 2nd Calendar Quarter increase of 239.1 B, to a level of 21.34 Trillion.


Last month it said the 1st Cal Q was 195.0 B, to level of 21.06 T.

I need to look into this more, to find what their errors are.


21.06 plus revised 0.0060 would be 21.06 or 21.07 T, and then another 0.2391 T would be 21.30 or 21.31 T.

NOTIFY: Y  | REPLY  | REPLY WITH QUOTE  | PERMALINK  | TOP  | HOME

Quote:

---

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
BEA released a report today, but the numbers seem goofy. It claims the 1st Calendar Quarter had $201.0 B increase of Current-Dollar GDP. Says this is the same as in the last report.

And 2nd Calendar Quarter increase of 239.1 B, to a level of 21.34 Trillion.


Last month it said the 1st Cal Q was 195.0 B, to level of 21.06 T.

I need to look into this more, to find what their errors are.


21.06 plus revised 0.0060 would be 21.06 or 21.07 T, and then another 0.2391 T would be 21.30 or 21.31 T.

---

The CY Q1 increase of 201.0 could be wrong - and is certainly not the same as the 195.0 figure from the last month's report.
The CY Q2 increase of 239.1 Billion could be wrong.
The CY Q2 total level of 21.34 Trillion could be wrong.
At least one of these 3 is certainly wrong, and perhaps more than one of them is incorrect.

The 26 July Release and Tables:
https://www.bea.gov/system/files/2019-07/gdp2q19_adv_1.pdf
Current Dollar GDP, Calendar Year Quarters:
First Quarter was 201.0
Second Quarter was $239.1 Billion. Total of $21.34 Trillion.


27 June:
https://www.bea.gov/news/2019/gross-domestic-product-first-quarter-201
9-third-estimate-corporate-profits-first-quarter
Fourth Quarter was 206.9
First Quarter was 195.0, to a level of $21.06 Trillion.


30 May:
https://www.bea.gov/news/2019/gross-domestic-product-1st-quarter-2019-
second-estimate-corporate-profits-1st-quarter
Fourht Quarter was 206.9
First Quarter was 183.7, to a level of 21.05.


26 April:
https://www.bea.gov/news/2019/gross-domestic-product-1st-quarter-2019-
advance-estimate
Fourth Quarter was 206.9
First Quarter was 197.6, to a leel of 21.06 Trillion.



FY Q1 (Calendar Year Q4) was already up to a level of $20.8651 Trillion. Due to cumulative rounding over the months, this figure technically could be off by as much as 5 Billion. But let us go with what we've been given.

With the Advance Estimate of FY Q2 at 197.6, this adds up to 21.0627 and rounds to 21.06 T. This could be in the range of 21.0550 to 21.0649 and still round as reported. (Q1 could have been 20.8574 to 20.8673)

With the Second Estimate of FY Q2 at 183.7, this adds up to 21.0488 and rounds to 21.05 T. This could be in the range of 21.0450 to 21.0549 and still round as reported. (Q1 could have been 20.8613 to 20.8712. Along with the previous month's restrictions, Q1 could have been 20.8613 to 20.8673)

With the Third Estimate of FY Q2 at 195.0, this adds up to 21.0601 and rounds to 21.06 T. This could be in the range of 21.0550 to 21.0649 and still round as reported. (Q1 could have been 20.8600 to 20.8699 - and the prior range is already more restrictive than this range.)

With this month's report of FY Q2 at 201.0 the total would add to 21.0661 but could still roam the range of 21.0623 to 21.0683 based on the prior months of information. However, no subtotal of rounding was provided, so this amount of 201.0 could be incorrect.

With this month's report of FY Q3 at 239.1 increase, the total would add to 21.3052 by calculation, and also roam the range of 21.3014 to 21.3074 (which would round to either 21.30 or 21.31) - which is not what was reported.

With this month's report of FY Q3 Total level of $21.34 Trillion, the FY Q3 Increase which would have been needed to achieve that would be about 274 Billion added to the prior 21.0661 Trillion level.

At this point a guess would need to be made about where the BEA errors are in their reporting.
Based upon the past years trends, the much more in-line increase for Q3 would be the one around 274 Billion. Even so, this still results in the slowest growth of a 4-Quarter span in the history of Trump.

I will try to make an update using 201.0 for FY Q2 Increase, 274 Billion for FY Q3 Increase, and 21.34 Trillion for FY Q3 Level. Of course, all of these figures are subject to revision and correction.

NOTIFY: Y  | REPLY  | REPLY WITH QUOTE  | PERMALINK  | TOP  | HOME

Updated with Wednesday's CBO.


I think I will go forward with data from the Monthly Treasury Statement each month. It has already been shown that CBO distorts and Fakes their data, and the more accurate MTS is usually less than a week later.

I won't redo all the past years, but will look up the FY2019 data.
The projected Deficit numbers will continue to be from CBO, since I have not seen Treasury delve into that. I should check OMB.

https://fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/mts/

https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/mts/mts0219.p
df

CBO still has this new format to their report, which again tried to hide the numbers, since highly partisan Deep State CBO was too incompetent to report clearly.



This looks like an interesting resource linky:
https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/major-recurring-reports#9

https://WWW.CBO.Gov/about/press-center

Apr 2018 CBO estimate:
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53821#section2


These data sources actually seem to correlate to the figures in the Budget Statements.
I'll try to post some data to breakdown how the projections progress.

The 1st column is Category and Fiscal Year. Categories are Revenue, Outlays, Surplus/Deficit (estimate) and Surplus/Deficit (Actual, or corrected). Projected is the figure that CBO projected for the FY, most recent at the time of the report. Proportional Percent is the cumulative Deficit compared to the actual FY Total. For the newest year, % Projection is based upon the historical proportion for that month of the cycle.

Each FY has 2 groups. First group is the individual month data. Second group is the cumulative Deficit for that FY so far.

Figures in Billions.

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept

Rev16 $211 $205 $350 $314 $169 $228 $438 $225 $330 $210 $231 $358
Out16 $347 $270 $364 $258 $362 $336 $332 $277 $323 $323 $338 $323
S/D16 -136 -$65 -$14 +$55 -193 -108 +106 -$53 +$06 -113 -107 +$35

Rev16 $211 $416 $766 1079 1248 1476 1915 2139 2469 2679 2910 3268
Out16 $347 $617 $981 1240 1601 1936 2268 2545 2868 3191 3529 3852
S/D16 -136 -201 -216 -160 -353 -459 -353 -405 -399 -512 -619 -585
Projt -414 -414 -414 -544 -544 -534 -534 -534 -534 -534 -590 -590
Port% 23.2 34.4 36.9 27.4 60.3 78.5 60.3 69.2 68.2 87.5 106% 100%


Rev17 $222 $200 $319 $344 $172 $217 $456 $240 $339 $231 $226 $348
Out17 $267 $337 $347 $293 $364 $393 $273 $327 $426 $276 $336 $342
S/D17 -$46 -137 -$27 +$51 -192 -176 +182 -$87 -$87 -$45 -109 +$06

Rev17 $222 $422 $741 1085 1257 1473 1929 2168 2509 2738 2966 3314
Out17 $267 $604 $951 1243 1607 2000 2273 2600 3028 3307 3642 3982
S/D17 -$46 -183 -210 -159 -351 -527 -344 -432 -520 -568 -675 -668
Projt -594 -594 -594 -559 -559 -559 -559 -559 -693 -693 -693 -693
Port% 06.9 27.5 31.6 23.9 52.8 79.2 51.7 65.0 78.2 85.4 101% 100%


Rev18 $235 $210 $326 $362 $157 $213 $515 $217 $314 $225 $219 $343
Out18 $299 $344 $352 $311 $373 $420 $297 $361 $389 $301 $430 $227
SDEst -6$2 -134 -$26 +$51 -216 -207 +218 -144 -$75 -$75 -211 +116
Act18 -$63 -139 -$23 +$49 -215 -209 +214 -146 -$74 -$77 -214 +118

Rev18 $235 $445 $770 1131 1287 1499 2012 2224 2539 2766 2985 3328
Out18 $299 $643 $998 1306 1679 2097 2394 2754 3146 3448 3880 4110
SDEst -$62 -198 -228 -174 -392 -598 -382 -530 -607 -682 -894 -782
Act18 -$63 -202 -225 -176 -391 -600 -386 -532 -606 -683 -897 -779
Projt -873 -873 -873 -873 -873 -873 -804 -792 -793 -793 -793 -793
%Prj7 -911 -734 -713 -736 -741 -757 -747 -815 -776 -799 -885 -782
%Prj6 -271 -588 -609 -644 -648 -765 -640 -766 -890 -779 -845 -782
Port% 08.1 25.9 28.9 22.6 50.2 77.0 49.6 74.7 77.8 87.7 115% 100%


Rev19 $253 $205 $312 $340 $171
Out19 $353 $408 $324 $331 $398
SDEst -$98 -203 -012 +$09 -227
Act19 -100 -205 -013 +$09 -234

Rev19 $253 $458 $771 1111 1282
Out19 $353 $761 1088 1421 1819
SDEst -$98 -303 -317 -310 -537
Act19 -100 -305 -318 -310 -544
Projt -985 -985 -985 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897
%Pjt8 1

NOTIFY: Y  | REPLY  | REPLY WITH QUOTE  | PERMALINK  | TOP  | HOME