The Aquaman 2 Failure Thread

POSTED BY: 6ixStringJack
UPDATED: Sunday, March 3, 2024 02:57
VIEWED: 3280
PAGE 1 of 3

It appears that removing Amber Heard from the trailers and diminishing her role severely is not going to save this movie, and as I've speculated in other threads leading up until now, the winnings Warner Bros. got from Barbie is not going to only be carrying three comic book flops in 2023, but four.

Here's BoxOfficePro's predictions for Aquaman 2:

Opening Weekend Range: $32M-$42M
Domestic Total Range: $105M-$168M

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-aquaman-an
d-the-lost-kingdom-and-migration/

It's tracking 25% above Shazam II and 62% below Black Adam in presales.


According to Variety, Aquaman 2's Production Budget was $205 Million. That's the Death Sentence right there.

https://variety.com/2022/film/news/batman-robert-pattinson-aquaman-dc-
studios-james-gunn-peter-safran-1235460483/


As we've seen so far this year, even reaching 100% of your Production Budget worldwide on Opening Weekend is not a guarantee that you'll break even, and I don't believe that Aquaman 2 is even going to come close to $205 Million on opening weekend.

Unfortunately, I can't do any comparisons to the first movie because it was released internationally and had already made $360 Million (with $189 Million of that from China) weeks before it was released in the US.

But Captain Marvel made over $1 Billion and look where The Marvels is at now.


As for DC in 2023...

Shazam II cost $125 Million to make and only grossed $132 Million Worldwide. (It made $6 Million in China)

The Flash cost $200 Million to make and only grossed $266 Million Worldwide. (It made $25 Million in China)

Blue Beetle cost $120 Million to make and only grossed $129 Million Worldwide. (It wasn't even shown in China)


So... Unless China has some strange love for shirtless underwater men that I'm unaware of, I think it's pretty safe to say that China's put the comic book trash behind them. There's a decent chance that the $190 Million that China had already put into the first Aquaman before it was released in the States is on par with the entire global box office take for the sequel.

And Aquaman 2 was the most expensive DC movie of 2023. Probably due to reshoots and diminishing Amber Heard's presence.

And people are already asking the question "Will Amber Heard be in Aquaman 3?"

Silly simps. There will be no Aquaman 3.




I won't make any predictions about the final box office until after it's been out for a weekend or two, other than to say that the chances of this thing making the $512 Million it needs to break even are about as good as Disney learning their lesson and making money in 2024.

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seems like another over expensive high cost production, out of control Budgets again

Aquaman was 2018 before Covid it made money, most crashed post Covid and after they started filling up movies with this weird 'Message' diversity transexual Gay Black Lesbian stuff everywhere

Maybe it can be a success but the market is tough now, Spider-Man No Way Home made profits but a lot of superhero stuff is crashing

Quote:

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Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:

62% below Black Adam in presales.

---

Not a good sign but I think its too early to predict...however there seem to be too many big expensive movies fighting for that small piece of turf where you can make profit.

Isn't Musk dating her again, maybe he will spam ads on twitter aka 'X' and brainwash everyone into going?

There is a contest to hold top position with Ferrari, Beyonce, Silent Night, Wonka, 'Rebel Moon' could eat some profits but its also Vacation time, more kids going to the movies and I'm not sure if it will have staying power into January. 'The Beekeeper' probably ends its chance at big profits.

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Quote:

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Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:

Quote:

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Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:

62% below Black Adam in presales.

---

Not a good sign but I think its too early to predict...however there seem to be too many big expensive movies fighting for that small piece of turf where you can make profit.

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Yeah. You're right. It may be too early to predict. I could be eating crow again here like I did with Songbirds and Snakes. Only time will tell.

That's why I wasn't going to put an actual dollar amount on any predictions until at least 1 or 2 weekends in the theaters.

One thing for sure though... Even though Aquaman 1 got $1 Billion+ in the theaters, Aquaman 2 will not be the first Comic Book movie of 2023 to break the $1 Billion mark.

I'm just about 99.99% confident that this won't make the $512 Million it needs to break even. I think it will come in at quite a bit lower than this.

Quote:

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Isn't Musk dating her again, maybe he will spam ads on twitter aka 'X' and brainwash everyone into going?

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I don't know if they're dating. But I do know that when there was talks to remove her completely from the film he had a fit about it and was able to keep her in the movie.

You are right to bring this point up. I don't know about brainwashing, but he does have a very large circle of influence these days, particularly among a crowd that would overlap with those who would otherwise want to see this movie fail.

Quote:

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There is a contest to hold top position with Ferrari, Beyonce, Silent Night, Wonka, 'Rebel Moon' could eat some profits but its also Vacation time, more kids going to the movies and I'm not sure if it will have staying power into January. 'The Beekeeper' probably ends its chance at big profits.

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I've heard about Beekeeper, but I really don't know anything at all about it yet. Don't know about Rebel Moon either.

Beyonce seems to be a general dud worldwide, as does Silent Night.

I could be wrong, but I don't really expect all that much out of yet another Willy Wonka movie.


I don't expect any major blockbusters to be around to destroy Aquaman 2. I think the general rejection of all things comic book in 2023 will be enough, and even without a super strong contender against it, the box office is stuffed full of alternatives of varying quality, subject matter and success right now.

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Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

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I don't think poor little Amber should get all the blame if this is a bomb, I'm sure there are plenty of people who'd love to take a dump on Depp's bed sheets. If it does tank it'll be because the fan base is fed up with a weak script, unfunny one liners and bad CGI. How many Super Hero flicks this year does this one make?

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Quote:

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Originally posted by whozit:
I don't think poor little Amber should get all the blame if this is a bomb, I'm sure there are plenty of people who'd love to take a dump on Depp's bed sheets.

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Yeah. It won't be Heard's fault at all. I was just making the point that even though they did everything they could to minimize her screen time after the fact it's not going to make any difference.

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If it does tank it'll be because the fan base is fed up with a weak script, unfunny one liners and bad CGI. How many Super Hero flicks this year does this one make?

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Seven.

1 minor Disney flop. 1 major Disney flop. 1 by Disney that made a little bit of money but under-performed. Soon to be 4 Warner Bros flops.

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Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

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Quote:

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Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:

Quote:

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Originally posted by whozit:
I don't think poor little Amber should get all the blame if this is a bomb, I'm sure there are plenty of people who'd love to take a dump on Depp's bed sheets.

---

Yeah. It won't be Heard's fault at all. I was just making the point that even though they did everything they could to minimize her screen time after the fact it's not going to make any difference.

Quote:

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If it does tank it'll be because the fan base is fed up with a weak script, unfunny one liners and bad CGI. How many Super Hero flicks this year does this one make?

---

Seven.

1 minor Disney flop. 1 major Disney flop. 1 by Disney that made a little bit of money but under-performed. Soon to be 4 Warner Bros flops.

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

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Geez, once apon a time Lucasfilm, the MCU and the DCU use to print money, now they burn it.

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Quote:

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Originally posted by whozit:
How many Super Hero flicks this year does this one make?

---

Quote:

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SIX: Seven.

1 minor Disney flop. 1 major Disney flop. 1 by Disney that made a little bit of money but under-performed. Soon to be 4 Warner Bros flops.

---

Quote:

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whozit:
Geez, once apon a time Lucasfilm, the MCU and the DCU use to print money, now they burn it.

---

Yeah...

Let's put a dollar sign on it too.


LUCASFILM:

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Production Budget: $300,000,000
source: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Indiana-Jones-and-the-Dial-of-Destin
y-(2023)#tab=summary
Worldwide Gross: $381,561,976 (127% of Production Budget)

Net Gain/Loss [2.5x RoT]: -$368,438,024

Willow TV Show
Production Budget: $105.9 million
source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/carolinereid/2023/08/15/revealed-the-aban
doned-streaming-series-that-cost-disney-100-million/
Worldwide Gross: $0 (Disney+ Only, and pulled from Disney+ shortly after. Available only by pirating now)

Net Gain/Loss [2.5x RoT]: -$105,900,000



MARVEL:

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania
Production Budget: $200,000,000
source: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Ant-Man-and-the-Wasp-Quantumania-(20
23)#tab=summary
Worldwide Gross: $463,635,303 (232% of Production Budget)

Net Gain/Loss [2.5x RoT]: -$36,364,697


Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol 3.
Production Budget: $250,000,000
source: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Guardians-of-the-Galaxy-Vol-3-(2023)
#tab=summary
Worldwide Gross: $845,468,744 (338% of Production Budget)

Net Gain/Loss [2.5x RoT]: +$220,468,744


The Marvels
Production Budget: $275,000,000
source: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Marvels-The-(2023)#tab=summary
Worldwide Gross: $197,458,371 (72% of Production Budget)

Net Gain/Loss [2.5x RoT]: -$490,041,629


Secret Invasion TV Show:
Production Budget: $212,000,000
source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/carolinereid/2023/07/08/disney-shells-out
-212-million-on-secret-invasion
Worldwide Gross: $0 (Disney+ Release; worst reviewed Marvel property ever)

Net Gain/Loss [2.5x RoT]: -$212,000,000




DC:

Shazam: Fury of the Gods
Production Budget: $125,000,000
source: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Shazam-Fury-of-the-Gods-(2022)#tab=s
ummary
Worldwide Gross: $132,192,362

Net Gain/Loss [2.5x RoT]: -$180,307,638


Blue Beetle
Production Budget: $120,000,000
source: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Blue-Beetle-(2023)#tab=summary
Worldwide Gross: $128,772,124

Net Gain/Loss [2.5x RoT]: -$171,227,876


The Flash
Production Budget: $200,000,000
source: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Flash-The#tab=summary
Worldwide Gross: $266,516,138

Net Gain/Loss [2.5x RoT]: -$233,483,862


Aquaman 2
Production Budget: $205,000,000
source: https://variety.com/2022/film/news/batman-robert-pattinson-aquaman-dc-
studios-james-gunn-peter-safran-1235460483
Worldwide Gross: $0

Net Gain/Loss [2.5x RoT]: -$512,500,000



TOTAL LUCASFILM LOSSES IN 2023: $474,338,024

TOTAL MARVEL LOSSES IN 2023: $517,937,582 *

TOTAL DC LOSSES IN 2023: $1,097,519,376 **


* The Marvels is still making a small amount worldwide in theaters and will chip away at the Marvel figure.

** The entire $512 Million hole that Aquaman 2 has caused DC/Warner Bros. has already been added to this, so depending on how well it does in theaters this could be quite a bit less than it is right now.


Obviously Aquaman 2 is going to make some money back. At the very least I think it will make half the money it needs to break even worldwide even in the worst case scenario.

But it is funny looking at the figures right now and seeing that collectively all the comic book properties and Lucasfilm properties in 2023 have lost over $2 Billion.




Warner Bros. got really lucky it had Barbie in 2023.

My tables here are from all the way back on Halloween, so I don't know if WB is still the 2nd most profitable studio in 2023 anymore, but without Barbie

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Quote:

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Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:

Quote:

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Originally posted by whozit:
How many Super Hero flicks this year does this one make?

---

Quote:

---

SIX: Seven.

1 minor Disney flop. 1 major Disney flop. 1 by Disney that made a little bit of money but under-performed. Soon to be 4 Warner Bros flops.

---

Quote:

---

whozit:
Geez, once apon a time Lucasfilm, the MCU and the DCU use to print money, now they burn it.

---

Yeah...

Let's put a dollar sign on it too.


LUCASFILM:

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Production Budget: $300,000,000
source: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Indiana-Jones-and-the-Dial-of-Destin
y-(2023)#tab=summary
Worldwide Gross: $381,561,976 (127% of Production Budget)

Net Gain/Loss [2.5x RoT]: -$368,438,024

Willow TV Show
Production Budget: $105.9 million
source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/carolinereid/2023/08/15/revealed-the-aban
doned-streaming-series-that-cost-disney-100-million/
Worldwide Gross: $0 (Disney+ Only, and pulled from Disney+ shortly after. Available only by pirating now)

Net Gain/Loss [2.5x RoT]: -$105,900,000



MARVEL:

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania
Production Budget: $200,000,000
source: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Ant-Man-and-the-Wasp-Quantumania-(20
23)#tab=summary
Worldwide Gross: $463,635,303 (232% of Production Budget)

Net Gain/Loss [2.5x RoT]: -$36,364,697


Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol 3.
Production Budget: $250,000,000
source: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Guardians-of-the-Galaxy-Vol-3-(2023)
#tab=summary
Worldwide Gross: $845,468,744 (338% of Production Budget)

Net Gain/Loss [2.5x RoT]: +$220,468,744


The Marvels
Production Budget: $275,000,000
source: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Marvels-The-(2023)#tab=summary
Worldwide Gross: $197,458,371 (72% of Production Budget)

Net Gain/Loss [2.5x RoT]: -$490,041,629


Secret Invasion TV Show:
Production Budget: $212,000,000
source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/carolinereid/2023/07/08/disney-shells-out
-212-million-on-secret-invasion
Worldwide Gross: $0 (Disney+ Release; worst reviewed Marvel property ever)

Net Gain/Loss [2.5x RoT]: -$212,000,000




DC:

Shazam: Fury of the Gods
Production Budget: $125,000,000
source: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Shazam-Fury-of-the-Gods-(2022)#tab=s
ummary
Worldwide Gross: $132,192,362

Net Gain/Loss [2.5x RoT]: -$180,307,638


Blue Beetle
Production Budget: $120,000,000
source: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Blue-Beetle-(2023)#tab=summary
Worldwide Gross: $128,772,124

Net Gain/Loss [2.5x RoT]: -$171,227,876


The Flash
Production Budget: $200,000,000
source: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Flash-The#tab=summary
Worldwide Gross: $266,516,138

Net Gain/Loss [2.5x RoT]: -$233,483,862


Aquaman 2
Production Budget: $205,000,000
source: https://variety.com/2022/film/news/batman-robert-pattinson-aquaman-dc-
studios-james-gunn-peter-safran-1235460483
Worldwide Gross: $0

Net Gain/Loss [2.5x RoT]: -$512,500,000



TOTAL LUCASFILM LOSSES IN 2023: $474,338,024

TOTAL MARVEL LOSSES IN 2023: $517,937,582 *

TOTAL DC LOSSES IN 2023: $1,097,519,376 **


* The Marvels is still making a small amount worldwide in theaters and will chip away at the Marvel figure.

** The entire $512 Million hole that Aquaman 2 has caused DC/Warner Bros. has already been added to this, so depending on how well it does in theaters this could be quite a bit less than it is right now.


Obviously Aquaman 2 is going to make some money back. At the very least I think it will make half the money it needs to break even worldwide even in the worst case scenario.

But it is funny looking at the figures right now and seeing that collectively all the comic book properties and Lucasfilm properties in 2023 have lost over $2 Billion.




Warner Bros. got really lucky it had Barbie in 2023.

My tables here are from all the way back on Halloween, so I don't know if WB is still the 2nd most profit

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