'Obamacare' will reduce US workforce, report finds
POSTED BY: Geezer
UPDATED: Monday, February 17, 2014 19:37
VIEWED: 8753
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Quote:
President Barack Obama's health law will cut the US workforce by the equivalent of more than two million workers, budget analysts say.
The reductions will begin in 2017 after the law's provisions take full effect, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) said in its report.
Lower-income workers will be hardest hit, limiting their hours to avoid losing federal subsidies.
Conservatives and the White House promptly clashed over the findings.
In Tuesday's report, the nonpartisan CBO said work hours would be reduced by the equivalent of 2.3 million full-time workers by 2021. It had previously estimated the health law would result in 800,000 fewer workers.
'Making it worse'
The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, commonly known as Obamacare, will result in a slower rate of employment growth over the next decade, according to the findings.
The congressional analysts say there will be fewer workers because healthcare subsidies would "reduce incentives to work" and pose an "implicit tax on working" for those returning to a job with health insurance.
The CBO said some US businesses may also decide to reduce their workforce to fewer than 50 full-time employees to avoid having to provide health insurance as mandated under the law.
The report also found US workers nearing retirement may opt to work shorter hours to retain healthcare subsidies until they qualify for Medicare, a federal health programme for the elderly.
Employees may also face lower wages due to tax levees and penalties against their employers, the report found.
The CBO findings provided fodder for conservatives, who are expected to make the health law a major issue in November's midterm elections.
"The middle class is getting squeezed in this economy, and this CBO report confirms that Obamacare is making it worse," Republican House of Representatives Speaker John Boehner said in a statement.
'Empowered'
But the White House said the impact on the workforce would be due to voluntary steps by workers rather than businesses cutting jobs.
The glitches that plagued the healthcare website during its October rollout would probably result in one million fewer enrolled participants than initially anticipated, the CBO found.
Six million people are now forecast to sign up for coverage by this year.
The president's Democratic allies have been trying to distance themselves from the issue in the lead-up to November's elections.
The law will leave people "empowered to make choices about their own lives and livelihoods", said White House Press Secretary Jay Carney.
He added that the law would allow participants the freedom to retire early or become stay-at-home parents.
Those polls will determine which political party holds sway in Congress for the final two years of Mr Obama's presidency.
Republicans say the law, America's most sweeping social legislation in decades, is an unacceptable government intrusion into healthcare. They have voted to repeal the act more than 40 times.
A Gallup poll on Tuesday found Americans continue to be more likely to disapprove of the law, by 51% to 41%.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-26041966
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Knew that was coming, figured it would be here by this morning. Only question was which one of you would put it up first.
Note the reasons the CBO cites:Quote:
In its latest U.S. fiscal outlook, the nonpartisan CBO said the health law would lead some workers, particularly those with lower incomes, to limit their hours to avoid losing federal subsidies that Obamacare provides to help pay for health insurance and other healthcare costs.
....
CBO said the expected drop in work hours between 2017 and 2024 would result largely from worker decisions not to participate in the labor force, rather than from higher unemployment or the inability of part-time workers to find full-time hours.
"The estimated reduction stems almost entirely from a net decline in the amount of labor that workers choose to supply, rather than from a net drop in businesses' demand for labor," CBO said. http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/04/us-usa-fiscal-obamacare-idUS
BREA131B120140204
So they're not saying it will cut JOBS, but cut the WORK FORCE, and I know why. We know a lot of people, JUST LIKE MY HUSBAND, who worked long past retirement age (in his case, to 75) purely because of healthcare costs. Health care has risen so dramatically that even Medicare isn't any guarantee you won't lose your home, and everything else, if you get sick, so employer-provided medical insurance has kept many in the work force past retirement. He was down to 30 hours a week, the minimum he could work and still get medical insurance for both of us. Now some of those can retire, and those jobs will open up for other, younger people.
And in case the response is "yeah, now all those people will collect Social Security sooner...", you should know that most of them, again like my husband, went on working AFTER they started collecting Social Security, since we knew once he finally quit, whatever we had was going to start going downhill because we'd have to start paying supplemental medical insurance to make up for what he lost. As it has, we are now without his paycheck, and paying several hundred dollars more each month in Part D drug coverage (which doesn't cover much, and neither of us is using, but if you don't pay it from the start and someday need a prescription, they charge you FROM DAY ONE--thanx Bush) and supplemental health insurance.
So the ramifications are both bad and good, if you will, but we know what we'll be hearing from the right:Quote:
....become fodder for partisan attacks in this year's congressional election battle....Republicans, who have already made Obama's Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA) a top campaign issue for November, seized on the CBO report....
Here we go...
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Quote:
Originally posted by Niki2:
So they're not saying it will cut JOBS, but cut the WORK FORCE,
You're right. The BBC article says "workforce" in both the title and the body of the article.
Your point?
Quote:
...and I know why. We know a lot of people, JUST LIKE MY HUSBAND, who worked long past retirement age (in his case, to 75) purely because of healthcare costs. Health care has risen so dramatically that even Medicare isn't any guarantee you won't lose your home, and everything else, if you get sick, so employer-provided medical insurance has kept many in the work force past retirement. He was down to 30 hours a week, the minimum he could work and still get medical insurance for both of us. Now some of those can retire, and those jobs will open up for other, younger people.
That could be one reason. But as the article you cited above notes, a lot of it is folks working less hours so they can stay under the 400% of poverty level cutoff for ACA subsidies. So they're basically taking a crapshoot as to whether their lower income will be made up for by the subsidy and lower out-of-pocket expenses.
And it's a good deal for some, Using the Kaiser Subsidy calculator Kiki introduced in another thread, we have a 60 year old woman living in Albany Ga. and making $47,000, paying $12,264 for insurance with no subsidy. If she drops her income by $2,000, to $45,000, She'd receive a $7,989 subsidy, for a net $5,989 benefit.
http://kff.org/interactive/subsidy-calculator/#state=ga&zip=31763&
amp;locale=Dougherty&income-type=dollars&income=45000&employer-coverage=0&people=1&alternate-plan-family=individual&adult-count=1&adults%5B0%5D%5Bage%5D=60&adults%5B0%5D%5Btobacco%5D=0&adults%5B1%5D%5Bage%5D=21&adults%5B1%5D%5Btobacco%5D=0&adults%5B2%5D%5Bage%5D=21&adults%5B2%5D%5Btobacco%5D=0&adults%5B3%5D%5Bage%5D=21&adults%5B3%5D%5Btobacco%5D=0&child-count=0&child-tobacco=0
ETA: It is interesting that the CBO figure for workforce reduction went from 800,000 to 2.3 million. Wonder why the got the original figure so wrong.
"When your heart breaks, you choose what to fill the cracks with. Love or hate. But hate won't ever heal. Only love can do that."
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Funny, I saw several reports debunking this last night - and realized I was surprised none of our right wingers had tried to run with it.
I didn't really expect one of ya to push it AFTER it had been shot down.
"Goram it kid, let's frak this thing and go home! Engage!"
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Cmon now, Story.
Yes you did.
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Quote:
Originally posted by BlueHandedMenace:
Cmon now, Story.
Yes you did.
I should have been more clear - I expected it, yes. I just thought they'd get to it sooner, when the rest of the echo chamber was all lathered up.
"Goram it kid, let's frak this thing and go home! Engage!"
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Quote:
Originally posted by Storymark:
Funny, I saw several reports debunking this last night - and realized I was surprised none of our right wingers had tried to run with it.
I didn't really expect one of ya to push it AFTER it had been shot down.
So what part of the BBC story, or my response to Niki's, post, do you disagree with?
"When your heart breaks, you choose what to fill the cracks with. Love or hate. But hate won't ever heal. Only love can do that."
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http://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/obamacare-cbo-report-jobs
It won't reduce the workforce. It will reduce the number of hours worked for many people, who will CHOOSE to work fewer hours to keep their own costs down.
Reducing the hours worked by the equivalent to 2.0 million "jobs" doesn't remove 2.0 million jobs or workers from the workplace. If anything, it will ADD jobs and workers to the workforce. Note that this isn't employers cutting hours or eliminating jobs that they no longer need done; it's workers not working those hours. The work is still there, so workplaces will actually have to hire more people to do the work that still needs to be done.
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Thanx for clarifying that so succinctly, EC. The point is that it won't increase unemployment, most likely it will make more jobs available. Quote:
"I think it’s important to distinguish between people choosing to work less and jobs being lost," said Larry Levitt, vice president at the non-partisan Kaiser Family Foundation. "For example, some people in their late 50s and early 60s would like to retire because they have health issues but have kept working for the health benefits. Some of them can now retire because they can’t be discriminated against for having a pre-existing condition and may get help paying their premiums."
Nobody is saying you misrepresented anything, Geezer, tho' your title obviously highlights the reduction in workforce and your choice of articles doesn't give all the information. But the fact remains that the right has
leapt on the CBO report and is broadcasting all over everywhere that "Obamacare Will Cost 2 Million Jobs!!!!", which is a flat-out lie.Quote:
ObamaCare could lead to loss of nearly 2.3 million US jobs, report says
...nearly 2.5 million workers could opt out of full-time jobs over the next 10 years -- allowing employers to wipe 2.3 million full-time jobs off the books. http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2014/02/04/obamacare-expected-to-lead-
to-loss-nearly-25-million-american-jobs-report-says/
From the NRCC (National Republican Congressional Committee):Quote:
Non-partisan CBO report admits #ObamaCare is hurting the economy, will cost 2.5 millions jobs. http://nrcc.me/1doOOA8 http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/fact-checker/wp/2014/02/04/no-cbo-
did-not-say-obamacare-will-kill-2-million-jobs/Quote:
This Shocking Government Report Confirms That ObamaCare Will Cost America 2 Million Jobs
A new report from the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office should pour cold water on Democrats who continue to deny that ObamaCare is a massive burden on the economy.
According to the CBO, ObamaCare will push approximately 2 million workers out of the labor market by 2017, as the law’s perverse incentives and regulations roll into effect. The latest estimate from the CBO is substantially larger than its previous analysis.
The report also finds that the economic burden is most likely to be felt among low-wage employees. Instead of trying to score political points by attempting to raise the minimum wage, shouldn’t Democrats focus on repealing ObamaCare and providing real economic relief to American workers? http://www.nrcc.org/2014/02/04/shocking-government-report-confirms-oba
macare-will-cost-america-2-million-jobs/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=tweets_social_twitter_20140204_e_AB_v2
That is a simple, flat-out LIE...no jobs will disappear. Note the NRCC article says the "economic burden is most likely to be felt among low-wage employees"...but that's completely ass-backwards from what the report actually says!Quote:
No, CBO did not say Obamacare will kill 2 million jobs
Here we go again. During the 2012 campaign, The Fact Checker had to repeatedly explain that the Congressional Budget Office never said that the Affordable Care Act “killed” 800,000 jobs by 2021. Now, the CBO has released an updated estimate, nearly the triple the size of the earlier one: 2.3 million in 2021.
...the health insurance subsidies in the law (are) a substantial benefit that decreases as people earn more money, so at a certain point, a person has to choose between earning more money or continuing to get the maximum help with health insurance payments. In other words, people might work longer and harder, but actually earn no more, or earn even less, money.
Look at this way: If someone says they decided to leave their job for personal reasons, most people would not say they “lost” their jobs. They simply decided not to work.
The CBO, in its sober fashion, virtually screams that t
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