The predictions thread
POSTED BY: kpo
UPDATED: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 18:54
VIEWED: 144481
PAGE 17 of 127
Quote:
Originally posted by Kwicko:Quote:
Originally posted by kpo:
To be fair I'll post one of mine:
kpo on Rick Perry: "If I were a betting man I'd put money on him as next president."
Oops.
It's not personal. It's just war.
Well, to be fair, we can leave this one up for four more years and see how it goes for him in 2016.
But I think your comment on your prediction was the most accurate, and sums up the way Texans now feel about him, too: "Oops."
That might just make the list of top 10 worst predictions...
It's not personal. It's just war.
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Quote:
Originally posted by kpo:
Ezra Klein thinks Romney will be a stronger prospect in a general election than he is in the current Republican primary, and that a contest between him and Obama would be quite tight.
Well, yes and no.
Yes, it was quite tight according to pundits, but not really that tight where it counted (in the Electoral College), and Romney was much weaker against the president than he was against his own field of worthless also-rans (he actually BEAT them).
"I supported Bush in 2000 and 2004 and intellegence [sic] had very little to do with that decision." - Hero
"I was wrong" - Hero, 2012
Mitt Romney, introducing his running mate: "Join me in welcoming the next President of the United States, Paul Ryan!"
Rappy's response? "You're lying, gullible ( believing in some BS you heard on msnbc ) or hard of hearing."
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Quote:
Originally posted by kpo:
Auraptor predicts that Obama's health care reform will be ruled unconstitutional, or repealed after the November elections.
Nope, and nope. Constitutional, and now certain to stand.
Barney Frank expects that Obama will be re-elected in November, barring any big jolts to the economy.
Yes indeed.
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Quote:
Originally posted by Kwicko:Quote:
Kwicko wrote:
Obama squeaks it out in the electoral college, taking Ohio and Wisconsin, while Romney edges Florida, Virginia, Iowa, and Colorado, but still comes up just shy of the 270 needed.
Nope. Obama took every one of those, and then some.
One thing I noticed during this thread was that liberals' predictions stayed close to what the polls were showing, and often erred on the side of pessimism. Conservative predictions were often quite different to what the polls were saying, and more often erred on the side of optimism. Just an interesting commentary on liberal/conservative mentality...
It's not personal. It's just war.
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Quote:
Originally posted by kpo:Quote:
Originally posted by Kwicko:Quote:
Kwicko wrote:
Obama squeaks it out in the electoral college, taking Ohio and Wisconsin, while Romney edges Florida, Virginia, Iowa, and Colorado, but still comes up just shy of the 270 needed.
Nope. Obama took every one of those, and then some.
One thing I noticed during this thread was that liberals' predictions stayed close to what the polls were showing, and often erred on the side of pessimism. Conservative predictions were often quite different to what the polls were saying, and more often erred on the side of optimism. Just an interesting commentary on liberal/conservative mentality...
It's not personal. It's just war.
That's the subject of many articles these last few days - how the left actually beleived math - whereas the right tended to believe in a fiction that was based on rejecting said math.
Reminds me of the climate change debate....
Excuse me while I soak in all these sweet, sweet conservative tears.
"We will never have the elite, smart people on our side." -- Rick "Frothy" Santorum
"Goram it kid, let's frak this thing and go home! Engage!"
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Quote:
Originally posted by Kwicko:
Auraptor: "The GOP will beat Obama by double digits in November."
Storymark: "Mitt Romney will be the GOP's John Kerry."
Yes to Story's prediction, quite a resounding NO to Rappy's.
Since Romney LOST by double digits, rappy's prediction wasn't merely wrong, but literally the opposite of what happened.
ETA: Oh, my bad, Romney didn't lose by double digits - he lost by TRIPLE digits...
Excuse me while I soak in all these sweet, sweet conservative tears.
"We will never have the elite, smart people on our side." -- Rick "Frothy" Santorum
"Goram it kid, let's frak this thing and go home! Engage!"
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Quote:
Originally posted by Kwicko:
Well, yes and no.
Yes, it was quite tight according to pundits, but not really that tight where it counted (in the Electoral College), and Romney was much weaker against the president than he was against his own field of worthless also-rans (he actually BEAT them).
"I supported Bush in 2000 and 2004 and intellegence [sic] had very little to do with that decision." - Hero
"I was wrong" - Hero, 2012
Mitt Romney, introducing his running mate: "Join me in welcoming the next President of the United States, Paul Ryan!"
Rappy's response? "You're lying, gullible ( believing in some BS you heard on msnbc ) or hard of hearing."
I realize this isn't the place to address this, but 538 blog had an interesting analysis on the state by state demographics. What I got out of it is that it doesn't help republicans that the red states are getting redder. OTOH it helps democrats that many many swing states are edging bluer.
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Ooh, that's a good article Kiki - here it is: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/08/as-nation-and-part
ies-change-republicans-are-at-an-electoral-college-disadvantage/
NateSilver - "If the parties continue down the same paths, however, this won’t be the last election when most of the swing states turn blue."
The alternative path he suggests is if Republicans moderate their tone on social issues, and try to appeal to hispanics more - but that won't be easy given how deeply dug in conservatives are on these issues, it seems to me. Party civil war?
All in all I think my bold (pre-November) prediction is looking good:
Quote:
kpo - "I'm going to make the rather bold prediction that Democrats will win 4 out of the next 5 presidential elections."
It's not personal. It's just war.
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Hahahahaha:
Grover Norquist (2004) - "The Democratic Party is Toast"
http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/features/2004/0409.norquist.html
Only Catpirate has achieved more spectacularly wrong predictions in one go.
It's not personal. It's just war.
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Jim Jones, CRFB (non-partisan think tank) - "We are perilously close to trillion-dollar yearly interest payments, 7 percent yields on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds, 10 percent home mortgage rates and 13 percent rates on car loans"
CaveTroll - "that "quantitative easing" that the Fed has been doing? It's devaluing the worth of the dollar."
Signy - "Sooner or later, the value of the dollar will fall... not "because of" our debt, but our debt will make the effects worse for us than otherwise might be."
kpo thinks the economy will be better than it is now in a couple of years.
It's not personal. It's just war.
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