The predictions thread
POSTED BY: kpo
UPDATED: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 18:54
VIEWED: 144481
PAGE 16 of 127
Why conservative predictions about the election fared so badly:
Quote:
It is easy to close oneself off inside a conservative echo chamber. And right-leaning outlets like Fox News and Rush Limbaugh's show are far more intellectually closed than CNN or public radio. If you're a rank-and-file conservative, you're probably ready to acknowledge that ideologically friendly media didn't accurately inform you about Election 2012. Some pundits engaged in wishful thing; others feigned confidence in hopes that it would be a self-fulfilling prophecy; still others decided it was smart to keep telling right-leaning audiences what they wanted to hear.
...
On the biggest political story of the year, the conservative media just got its ass handed to it by the mainstream media. And movement conservatives, who believe the MSM is more biased and less rigorous than their alternatives, have no way to explain how their trusted outlets got it wrong, while the New York Times got it right. Hint: The Times hired the most rigorous forecaster it could find.
The whole article's a good read: http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2012/11/how-conservative-m
edia-lost-to-the-msm-and-failed-the-rankandfile/264855/
It's not personal. It's just war.
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What a diagram this is! How close to the mark were Conservative and liberal pundits' predictions?
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2012/11/pundi
t_scorecard_checking_pundits_predictions_against_the_actual_results.html
It's not personal. It's just war.
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Oh, missed this one, Hero predicts things won't go Obama's way in the swing states:
Hero - "Oh Obama, my old friend. Have you not heard the old Kilingon proverb that revenge is a dish that is best served cold? It is very cold...in Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, and possibly Pennsylvania if turnout is low in Philadelphia."
Is it me, or did Obama win every one of those states? 
It's not personal. It's just war.
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Riona - "remember how a while ago everyone said "allowing same sex marriage isn't a slippery slope thing, allowing that won't allow other things"? Now they're saying, "well go for it guys, no holds barred!". Next they'll want to lower the age of concent so we can be like Pakistan, where 12 year olds marry 50 year olds."
Hero foresees an Israeli attack on Iran: "They (Iran) know Isreal is coming, we know Isreal is going..."
Auraptor, on a possible conservative post-election exodus:
"I suspect many folks who we've never even heard about will do exactly that, sell what they can and get the hell out of dodge..."
"...we may not know their names, or even the companies they run, but if they do pull up and 'Shrug', it's going to cause some ripples."
"Rule of law and rights to property ownership are high on the list for countries to look into. It's gonna get bad here. Real bad."
"People who have worked their entire lives, very hard for their money, and yes, who DID build that, have an actual, tangible reason to be fearful of this President. He LITERALLY wants to take away from them what they earned."
It's not personal. It's just war.
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Quote:
Kwicko wrote:
Obama squeaks it out in the electoral college, taking Ohio and Wisconsin, while Romney edges Florida, Virginia, Iowa, and Colorado, but still comes up just shy of the 270 needed.
Nope. Obama took every one of those, and then some.
"I supported Bush in 2000 and 2004 and intellegence [sic] had very little to do with that decision." - Hero
"I was wrong" - Hero, 2012
Mitt Romney, introducing his running mate: "Join me in welcoming the next President of the United States, Paul Ryan!"
Rappy's response? "You're lying, gullible ( believing in some BS you heard on msnbc ) or hard of hearing."
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Quote:
Originally posted by kpo:
Here's an idea I've had, a bit of an experiment and something I've wanted to do for a while.
The point of this thread is to be a public record of people's predictions. You can post your own, or other people's that you've read and found interesting, so that we can all see in months and years to come who turned out to be accurate in their predictions, and who didn't. It's a chance to stick your neck out, or stick other people's out for them if you think their comments come out of a deluded partisan bubble.
I have one rule, and that is that people post their predictions in red font. The idea of this is that the predictions will stand out and be easy to find and read, and then all discussion can happen around them. Besides that one rule I'll just make a general plea to posters to be faithful when quoting other people, and to keep flame wars to a minimum.
How to post in red font
It's quite easy, post in red font by putting the code font color=red inside triangle brackets like this:. That goes before the text you want to be red. To turn off font color use this code: /font color inside triangle brackets, to return to ordinary font.
Here's a couple of predictions I've read recently and found interesting, to get the ball rolling (I'm paraprashing, from memory):
Auraptor: "The GOP will beat Obama by double digits in November."
Storymark: "Mitt Romney will be the GOP's John Kerry."
Yes to Story's prediction, quite a resounding NO to Rappy's.
"I supported Bush in 2000 and 2004 and intellegence [sic] had very little to do with that decision." - Hero
"I was wrong" - Hero, 2012
Mitt Romney, introducing his running mate: "Join me in welcoming the next President of the United States, Paul Ryan!"
Rappy's response? "You're lying, gullible ( believing in some BS you heard on msnbc ) or hard of hearing."
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Quote:
Originally posted by AnthonyT:
Hello,
I predict that as the election approaches, the opposition party will become more vehement and offensive, while the incumbent party will become more stringent in their defense of a president who has done little to recommend him.
--Anthony
Yup.
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Quote:
Originally posted by kpo:
George Soros predicts that if the Republicans win the white house in 2012 they will undergo a 'miraculous transformation' and decide the economy needs more stimulus.
Indeterminate, since it didn't happen.
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Quote:
Originally posted by Oonjerah:
Is a lighter shade of red ok? Spot of humor ok?
I predict that Gingrich, Paul, Romney & Santorum will be in a virtual dead heat before the Convention. The Republican party will drop them and nominate Arnold Schwarzenegger, pushing him as the governor who almost saved the California economy.
Air Force One will crash killing Obama on the same day that Biden suffers a heart attack with stroke. The Democrats will run Hillary Clinton.
Knowing that the neocon Republicans got us into this mess, very likely on purpose, and will continue to grind us down, I will vote Democratic no matter what.
Arnold will win by a substantial margin.
God will intervene to give Arnold the gifts of wisdom & humility. Arnold will tell Him to keep it, saying, "I've got this. You don't understand American politics anyway."
God will agree to Arnold's wishes; and I am not sacreligious enough to put words into His mouth as the Heavens close.
"All I suggest is a man hears what he wants to hear, and disregards the rest" ~Paul Simon
Not even close. Not even by a little.
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Quote:
Originally posted by kpo:
To be fair I'll post one of mine:
kpo on Rick Perry: "If I were a betting man I'd put money on him as next president."
Oops.
It's not personal. It's just war.
Well, to be fair, we can leave this one up for four more years and see how it goes for him in 2016.
But I think your comment on your prediction was the most accurate, and sums up the way Texans now feel about him, too: "Oops."
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