Mars: yes or no?
POSTED BY: MAL4PREZ
UPDATED: Tuesday, June 30, 2026 16:09
VIEWED: 12050
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Watch it if you haven't, it's mind-boggling:
So what do you think? Land or wreck? Only a few hours left to make a prediction... Landing time is 1:30 AM EST.
My take: On one hand, NASA crashed a Mars lander not too long ago (in the minds of middle aged people like me) because some moron forgot to covert units. (I've never made such a stupid mistake in my life! *cough*cough*) On the other hand, they must be feeling somewhat confident, to have put this movie out and upped the PR. All in all, I have to put my virtual money on success. I think they're going to pull it off.
Anyone else care to guess?
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Let's call it cautious optimism.
There's an awful lot to go wrong with this kind of landing, but I'm hoping they pull it off. Or will have pulled it off, because they won't know until about 14 minutes after the fact, at best.
"I supported Bush in 2000 and 2004 and intellegence [sic] had very little to do with that decision." - Hero
"The groin cup and throat protector have about as much ballistic protection as the kneepads I wear when I'm doing a job that requires me to be on my knees." - Troll
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Quote:
Originally posted by Kwicko:
Let's call it cautious optimism.
I admit, in the end that's all I have. I hope it makes it, so I'm rooting for that. The pictures from the other Rovers are just so damned good. I want more.
I cry BS about one thing on the 7 minute video: they say 0% margin of error. No way. They wouldn't have gone ahead if they didn't very well know the margins of errors. Mars has an atmosphere, and I've seen before that there is weather of a sort. What if there is high pressure and the air density is 5% above or below what they expect? Will the landing still work? What if there are winds? What if the orientation of the attitude adjustment engines are 0.5° off? What if the fuel burns 0.1% hotter than they planned in their "ideal case"? What if all those uncertainties make them come in 4° too high? Too low? Can they correct this?
Trust me, these calculations have been made, long ago, and provision and margins of error have been laid in. And yet, the real thing always has surprises.... I really hope the surprises are within acceptable bounds. And that everyone was clear about whether they are using feet or meters.
No, the error analysis for this mission is stunningly interesting to me. I can't imagine what the people who planned this are thinking and feeling right now. Imagine you're a mom who supported your girl's dream to do the balance beam, and now there she is, in the Olympics, about to do the mount in front of a worldwide audience, but she's down there on her own and you're in your seat in the crowd and can't say a thing she'll hear. She will succeed or fail, all on her own.
Yes, I've been watching too much Olympics.
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tick tick tick tick tick
SignyM: I swear, if we really knew what was being decided about us in our absence, and how hosed the government is prepared to let us be, we would string them up.
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hopefully yes, but i won't get to see it live. damn music lesson
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looks like a big YES from all the kissin' and huggin' at the NASA control room.
see the pics later
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This was the shiniest thing I've ever seen! Congratulations to all involved!
(There's about a 35-second lag in the audio from the NASA-TV feed)
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Quote:
Originally posted by MAL4PREZ:
I admit, in the end that's all I have. I hope it makes it, so I'm rooting for that. The pictures from the other Rovers are just so damned good. I want more.
I cry BS about one thing on the 7 minute video: they say 0% margin of error. No way. They wouldn't have gone ahead if they didn't very well know the margins of errors. Mars has an atmosphere, and I've seen before that there is weather of a sort. What if there is high pressure and the air density is 5% above or below what they expect? Will the landing still work? What if there are winds? What if the orientation of the attitude adjustment engines are 0.5° off? What if the fuel burns 0.1% hotter than they planned in their "ideal case"? What if all those uncertainties make them come in 4° too high? Too low? Can they correct this?
Trust me, these calculations have been made, long ago, and provision and margins of error have been laid in. And yet, the real thing always has surprises.... I really hope the surprises are within acceptable bounds. And that everyone was clear about whether they are using feet or meters.
No, the error analysis for this mission is stunningly interesting to me. I can't imagine what the people who planned this are thinking and feeling right now. Imagine you're a mom who supported your girl's dream to do the balance beam, and now there she is, in the Olympics, about to do the mount in front of a worldwide audience, but she's down there on her own and you're in your seat in the crowd and can't say a thing she'll hear. She will succeed or fail, all on her own.
Yes, I've been watching too much Olympics.
And to top it off, it all has to be done on the fly by the craft itself. It needs some sort of autonomous control system to account for those errors on the fly, because in this case, the "mom" or "coach" isn't just in the stands - the stands are 15 minutes away, so any coaching is going to come well after the performance is already over.
By all indications, it worked beautifully, though. I'm stunned and overjoyed by this news.
"I supported Bush in 2000 and 2004 and intellegence [sic] had very little to do with that decision." - Hero
"The groin cup and throat protector have about as much ballistic protection as the kneepads I wear when I'm doing a job that requires me to be on my knees." - Troll
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Quote:
Originally posted by cljohnston108:
This was the shiniest thing I've ever seen! Congratulations to all involved!
(There's about a 35-second lag in the audio from the NASA-TV feed)
Thank you for the video. I missed footage of this last night. Wow. So cool! And they got images within minutes.
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I didn't dare hope. un-FREAKING-believable!
THANKS! for the link Kwicko.
SignyM: I swear, if we really knew what was being decided about us in our absence, and how hosed the government is prepared to let us be, we would string them up.
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