"NOW Do You Believe in Global Warming?"
POSTED BY: Niki2
UPDATED: Monday, August 27, 2012 01:07
VIEWED: 17646
PAGE 13 of 13
Let me try to explain, Mal4. Actually, Oonj did a better job than I will, but I'll try my usual, over-long method. I just went through this with Raptor--tho' I doubt he understood it--on another subject. In my opinion those of us who either weren't there and have to get our information from other sources, or in this case aren't scientists ourselves who have taken the measurements, etc., only CAN "believe" or not believe. We can't "know" for ourselves, we have to accept someone else's word for it. There are many, many scientific things around us which we do not have the knowledge to understand personally, so we have to either have faith that those who are explaining them to us are accurate, or dismiss what they say. Ergo, "belief".
Small example: I took my dogs sulkying at the Ponds an hour or so ago, just before sunup. We startled a skunk, who ran right across the path, causing the stupid dogs, of course, to give chse. He hit the brush, which the sulky can't go through, with the result that the dogs ended up all tangled up and me pulled in after them. I didn't realize until I'd untangled them that my foot hurt. It's sprained, much ouch. Now, I KNOW my foot hurts. Having been through the experience, I know WHY my foot hurts. So it's not a matter of "belief". That's simple. I've also seen for myself melting ice caps (via video) and am aware of the incredible heat the rest of the country is experiencing (via video). But there can be many explanations for why both of those things are happening, and I'm not scientist enough nor have taken readings enough even if I COULD understand them to KNOW whether that's because of climate change or not. I have to trust scientists. Ergo, belief.
Now, Raptor has explained that he mostly listens to talk radio, and virtually all of that from conservative sources. Ergo, the explanations he's been given for these things happening is that they are NOT caused by global warming, and aside from the usual propaganda, he's told it's because OTHER scientists have determined it's not. So he "believes" there's no global warming, or that if there is, the causes are natural and other than man made.
Do you see what I'm saying? Those of us not directly involved have no choice but to believe or disbelieve. The REASONS we choose between the two come from within us and are complex, involving denial, fear, desire to try to attain the most accurate information, politics of course, and others. Neither he nor I can "know". I, and some scientists, believe we've passed tipping point; other scientists believe we can reverse the situation. There's where real "belief" comes into play; which do you believe? Can you KNOW one or the other?
That's the best I can do to try and explain why I say "believe" rather than "know". I did, by the way, kind of do as you suggested: Rather than asking if they found *such-and-such* new evidence convincing, I listed the nine criteria scientists put together, such as lack of biodiversity, acidification of the oceans, etc., and asked how else THEY would explain them. Haven't checked to see if I got an answer, and if so what it might be, but I will.
Nonetheless, in my opinion, asking whether people believe OR giving them evidence and asking if they find it convincing is a waste of time; those who don't "accept" if you will that these things are happening and will affect us won't be convinced by any facts or evidence...they are given "reasons" to believe otherwise, in Raptor's case because the only sources from which he gets his "facts" have a stake in presenting supposed "scientific" evidence from "scientists" with their own agenda which is contrary to what most relatively unbiased scientists have come to agree. Hell, many of these type
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Rappy and I went through this many threads ago: the Vostok ice cores, and so-called climate-gate. Having gone through this with him IN DETAIL, he chooses to ignore the bulk of the evidence and clings to his one or two irrelevant "facts" instead. Let's give rappy a rest: the guy is as irrelevant to this discussion as he is to discussions about the economy, radical Muslims, the Iraq war, or anything else.
I understand what you say about "belief" Niki, but the problem is that people really DO need to be making decisions about real things, and it is incumbent on us as a species to do the best we can to suss out the reality of the situation. If we don't, then we'll just die off as a species. We seem to be able to think a great deal about which team is going to win, and we think an awful lot about religion and other inexplicables, so why not think about real, important stuff too?
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Sig, everything you said. In spades. I do what I can, and will continue to, and if I find other ways to do more, of which I am capable and willing, I'll do those things too.
The difference is that I believe we've passed tipping point, and I have no hope of OUR government in particular doing anything about anything, or even making decisions about the real things--to me this being the "realist" of all. At this point it would take global agreements to make even a dent in what's happening, and the numbers are against us even then, especially what with America being the biggest, the baddest, the richest and the most destructive. So I just do what I can personally and occasionally give in to pissing into the wind a bit.
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Quote:
Originally posted by mal4prez:
Niki - your own language reveals something sad. Global warming is not a belief system. It makes no sense to ask whether anyone BELIEVES in it or not. Evidence supports it, or not. Personal belief has no bearing on the matter.
Exactly why I reply with " no ", when anyone asks if I 'believe' in evolution. It's not a matter of belief. I acknowledge it as fact, based on the body of known evidence.
That one really ticks off the fundies. At first, they think they have a convert, but then when I explain further, you'd have thought I just told them their puppy got run over in the street.
" We're all just folk. " - Mal
" AU, that was great, LOL!! " - Chrisisall
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Quote:
Originally posted by Auraptor:
If I believe YOU, and ignore real science
C'mon, what is this 'real science' Auraptor, and where do we find it? This shouldn't be so hard to answer...
I notice PirateNews posted a website link called real-science.com earlier - is that the 'real science' you were talking about?
It's not personal. It's just war.
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Bumping this to offer one teeeny piece of good news, and some info on what the rest of the world is doing:Quote:
It is a chilly morning in Olenguruone village on the southern flank of the Rift Valley, but Gloria Chepng’etich is warming up to the task at hand.
Spread neatly on her workbench are bamboo splices that the 21-year-old will weave into floor mats over the next hour or so.
She will then pass the handicraft to her colleague, Zipporah Sirui, who will finish it with touches of dye, blending it into a colorful mix of orange, red, and gray.
A single mat fetches around $50, enough for each of them to buy cooking flour and save some money for a rainy day.
PICTURES: Sustaining the Environment
Beyond their work, Chepng’etich and Sirui have something else in common – both are internally displaced persons (IDPs). They were among the thousands of families evicted by the Kenyan government from the Mau forest complex in 2009, following pressure by environmentalists to rehabilitate the area.
The complex, which comprises 16 blocks of forest on the western side of the Rift Valley, is the largest indigenous forest in East Africa, generating and capturing rainfall that is a crucial resource for Kenya and beyond and a significant factor in mitigating the regional effects of climate change.
The eviction of forest residents won the government national and international praise, with officials arguing that it would reduce illegal harvesting of forest resources and create space for reforestation in the complex. But the social and economic costs were high.
“We were sent to the Kurbanyat IDP camp,” says Chepng’etich. “For a long time we relied on relief food, but the officials started stealing it.”
Destitute and desperate is how officials with the BamCraft Project found the two, and hundreds of other IDPs. The project is a partnership of Kenya Forestry Research Institute (KEFRI), the United Nations Industrial Development Organization, and the government of Japan.
Now the IDPs are finding a new way to make a living – without cutting trees – by turning to bamboo farming.
At the nearby Kapkempu IDP camp, Hudson Sang’ has been piecing together refined bamboo planks, which he will craft into furniture, selling a set for about $100.
“We have about an acre of land under bamboo,” says Sang’. “After harvesting [the bamboo] we make tables, chairs, floor mats, baskets, brooms, necklaces, sugar dishes, smoking pipes, and even wine cups.”
The land has been loaned to Sang’ and other IDPs by well-wishers while they await permanent resettlement by the government. As a result of the bamboo project, he no longer has to worry about the forest guards who enforce a ban that since 2000 has restricted the harvesting of forest resources from all government forests.
The legislation requires Kenyans to seek permission from local authorities before cutting down any tree from their farms, but it does not apply to bamboo since the plant is classified as a giant grass, officials say.
The legislation prompted the Kenya Forestry Research Institute to investigate opportunities offered by nontimber products and their potential to reduce pressure on forests, says Gordon Sigu, a research scientist working with the institution.
“Our research has shown that the grass … can supplement the rising demand for timber both at home and abroad,” Sigu said.
He said bamboo grows very quickly and a farmer does not need a big area of land to cultivate it.
Farmers in central Kenya are pleased with bamboo’s commercial value, and a growing number of them are adopting bamboo farming to supply industrial fiber, as well as planks for the construction sector.
“Before I came to know about its value I used bamboo for fencing,” says Moses Kamiri, a farmer in central Kenya. “But the last harvest fetched me enough money to feed my family and pay school fees.”
The institute estimates that Kenya is home to 14 species of bamboo growing on some 150,000 hectares [370,000 acre
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Noooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo.
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Quote:
Originally posted by NewOldBrownCoat:Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
In just over 2 years I had turned 13k into 15.6k in my Roth IRA. I thought I was the Wall Street Kid.... So when the DOW dropped from around 15k down to 12k, I thought it would be a good time to invest in a name brand like GE. It topped out at about 42 bucks a share and I figured I was getting a bargain at 27 bucks a share. I also spent just about as much on US Bankcorp, which was giving a 5.25% dividend when savings accounts were giving less than 1%. Shortly after about 8k in those 2 purchases, the bottom fell out and I saw my 13k (plus 2.6k) turn into just over 6k in about 8 months. (This was money I'd already paid taxes on and didn't have a company match on either).
I rode it out. I didn't panic sell because I didn't need the money at the time. By the time I sold both of those stocks, they weren't worth as much as I'd paid for them, but they recovered greatly. My other big winners on the side lines helped push my final outcome to 13.2k. 200 bucks interest on 13k isn't too shabby for 4 years in this climate.
I just did the quick math. $200 interest on 13,000 over 4 year is .38 % a year simple interest, 1.5 + a tiny decimal % over the 4 years total. Depending on just what ammount under 1% those savings accounts were paying, you might have been better off overall.
No doubt I did make out, but that's only because I held on to my losers as well as my winners....
I was thrilled to see when I cashed out that I was still up 200 bucks.... No doubt more than I would have made in a bank in those 4 years, but easily 2,100 dollars less than my "peak".
The market, for people like you and I, is a scary place to live in. Sure... when times are good and everything is going up, it's all gravy.
Don't think you're smarter than people who work for the man and have 8 years of college under their belt though.
How many of them have a house that's paid for? I'm guessing ZERO.
As soon as I get my first real gig in this chapter in my life I'll be set....
I pay only 75 bucks now for basic bills and necessities over what I paid for rent when I was making 55k+ a year.
Give me a job today making 12-13 bucks an hour with health benefits and a 100% match on 3% 401k and I might as well have been a nobody winning the lotto.
In the mean time, my 8 buck an hour job pays the bills, and nothing more...
Tomorrow is another day....
"A government is a body of people, usually notably ungoverned." ~Shepherd Book
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Just re solar power - I caught this tidbit from a recent article
http://www.laboratoryequipment.com/news/2012/08/common-metals-can-make
-cheap-sustainable-solar-panels?et_cid=2808538&et_rid=290390323&linkid=http%3a%2f%2fwww.laboratoryequipment.com%2fnews%2f2012%2f08%2fcommon-metals-can-make-cheap-sustainable-solar-panels
With enough sunlight falling on home roofs to supply AT LEAST HALF of America’s electricity ... (emphasis mine)
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