Real World Event Discussions

"NOW Do You Believe in Global Warming?"

POSTED BY: Niki2
UPDATED: Monday, August 27, 2012 01:07
VIEWED: 17646
PAGE 12 of 13

1KIKI

Wednesday, July 25, 2012 9:14 PM

It depends on how far global warming can go. As I have heard - and it makes sense to me - the problem with models is that they can only model the very narrow parameters of the recent past. Once things have changed beyond those parameters, your past knowledge is useless. You can't know what mechanisms are active, and how they interact with each other. Your model is broken. You can no longer use it to predict anything.

The question for me is: will the earth be driven to new extremes it hasn't seen and recovered from in the past?

Some people claim that we will never become Venus. And maybe that's true. After all, the atmosphere of Mars is 90% CO2 and > IT'S < not Venus. OTOH Mars doesn't have a toasty molten core providing its own heat AND receives far less solar radiation (by a radius SQUARED factor where the radius is the distance from the sun. So the drop off from going further out is extreme.) And everything I've seen indicates global warming is a positive feedback process. To date I haven’t seen a negative feedback brake. Also, everything I've read indicates that once the OCEANS are broken (ie when the Siberian Traps erupted) recovery is iffy. At least there are thermal vent organisms that I would hope are isolated enough from the effects of global warming. OTOH what I have read is that the growing theory of life on earth came from off the planet - maybe Mars, maybe asteroids, maybe elsewhere. SHOULD the planet become sterilized, that means that the planet might have to wait for another chance at life.

In short - I don't have an answer.

SignyM: I swear, if we really knew what was being decided about us in our absence, and how hosed the government is prepared to let us be, we would string them up.

NIKI2

Wednesday, July 25, 2012 9:26 PM

C'mon, KPO, you know he won't do either. In the interest of clarification (and in the hopes this can stop being threadjacked into a Raptor back and forth), I'll provide the answers.

As to what Obama said, as I posted in that thread, here is the entire quote:

Quote:
"If you were successful, somebody along the line gave you some help. There was a great teacher somewhere in your life. Somebody helped to create this unbelievable American system that we have that allowed you to thrive. Somebody invested in roads and bridges. If you’ve got a business -- you didn’t build that. Somebody else made that happen.

So we say to ourselves, ever since the founding of this country, you know what, there are some things we do better together. That’s how we funded the G.I. Bill. That’s how we created the middle class. That’s how we built the Golden Gate Bridge or the Hoover Dam. That’s how we invented the Internet. That’s how we sent a man to the moon. We rise or fall together as one nation and as one people.

As to the science of global warming, here is some simple scientific facts as to whether we are past tipping point or not:

Quote:
A team of 30 scientists across the globe ( http://www.stockholmresilience.org/research/researchnews/tippingtoward
stheunknown/contactdetails.4.1fe8f33123572b59ab800010646.html) have determined that the nine environmental processes named above must remain within specific limits, otherwise the "safe operating space" within which humankind can exist on Earth will be threatened.

The group has set numeric limits for seven of the nine so far (chemical pollution and aerosol loading are still being pinned down). And the researchers have determined that the world has already crossed the boundary in three cases: biodiversity loss, the nitrogen cycle and climate change.

Up to 30% of mammals, birds and amphibians will be threatened with extinction in this century;
Biodiversity loss has happened faster in the past 50 years than at any other time in human history;
We're losing ice sheets; sea levels are rising; weather patterns are changing;
Carbon dioxide is making the oceans more acidic, causing the loss of corals, shellfish and plankton;
Widespread fertilizer use is changing the nitrogen and phosphorous cycles even more than the carbon cycle;
Excess nitrogen and phosphorous pollute our rivers, lakes, oceans and atmosphere;
Global freshwater use doubles every 20 years, at more than twice the rate of population growth;
We've already passed the tipping point of climate change, biodiversity loss and nitrogen levels;
We're about to pass the tipping point of freshwater consumption, ocean acidification, land use and phosphorous levels.

Jon Foley, director of the University of Minnesota’s Institute on the Environment, and a leader of the group, lays out the limits and their implications for human action in an article ( http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=boundaries-for-a-heal
thy-planet) in Scientific American‘s April issue. http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/2010/03/19/is-earth-p
ast-the-tipping-point/

Can the earth survive all that, even with us completely gone?

NIKI2

Wednesday, July 25, 2012 9:30 PM

Thanx, Kiki, that makes sense to me. And of course I don't have an answer either, nor really does anyone else; all we can do is theorize. But it's not just global warming at work...see my above post. Given the combination of all those things, in addition to global warming, I'm not sure what to think, aside from the fact that our particular species is pretty much headed for extinction. It's the planet I care about now, and I'll never know. I care about people, mind you, but I believe at this point all we can do is stave off the inevitable for as long as possible, and I weep for coming generations.

I have to look up some of that stuff you mentioned to understand further, but I thank you for what you've given me.

Smiled at the concept that life came from off-planet. Happened to catch "Mission to Mars" last night JUST when I was getting ready for bed, so of course had to watch it again. Lovely hopeful vision, but I'm afraid I can't buy it...sadly.

AURAPTOR

Thursday, July 26, 2012 12:58 AM

Obama is lying.

Quote:
"Well, the problem is you left out the sentence that I made before so what I said was together we build roads and we build bridges and so if you've got a business, you didn't build that...Meaning the roads and the bridges, not your business. And anybody who actually watched the tape knows that's what I was referring to. That's a point I've made millions of times and that's a point Mr. Romney has made as well so I think it's just a bogus issue.

The full quote, in context....

“If you’ve been successful, you didn’t get there on your own, ” Obama said. “You didn’t get there on your own. I’m always struck by people who think, well, it must be because I was just so smart. There are a lot of smart people out there. It must be because I worked harder than everybody else. Let me tell you something – there are a whole bunch of hardworking people out there. If you were successful, somebody along the line gave you some help. There was a great teacher somewhere in your life. Somebody helped to create this unbelievable American system that we have that allowed you to thrive. Somebody invested in roads and bridges. If you’ve got a business. you didn’t build that. Somebody else made that happen.”

'Business' is singular.

IF YOU'VE GOT A BUSINESS, YOU DIDN'T BUILD THAT

Roads and Bridges ...are plural. Meaning MANY roads and bridges. He did't say ALL that, referring to many or several bridges. He could have, but he didn't. Or maybe Obama also meant that someone else BUILT those teachers ? It's utterly nonsensical to believe Obama WASN'T talking about building a small business, as the word "that" is literally in the same sentence as the word " business ", to which 'that' refers. Yes, small business owners did, indeed BUILD THAT.

The captain had it right....

" We're all just folk. " - Mal

" AU, that was great, LOL!! " - Chrisisall

MAL4PREZ

Thursday, July 26, 2012 1:35 AM

Niki - your own language reveals something sad. Global warming is not a belief system. It makes no sense to ask whether anyone BELIEVES in it or not. Evidence supports it, or not. Personal belief has no bearing on the matter.

KPO

Thursday, July 26, 2012 3:14 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by AURaptor:

Obama is lying.

Quote:
"Well, the problem is you left out the sentence that I made before so what I said was together we build roads and we build bridges and so if you've got a business, you didn't build that...Meaning the roads and the bridges, not your business. And anybody who actually watched the tape knows that's what I was referring to. That's a point I've made millions of times and that's a point Mr. Romney has made as well so I think it's just a bogus issue.

The full quote, in context....

“If you’ve been successful, you didn’t get there on your own, ” Obama said. “You didn’t get there on your own. I’m always struck by people who think, well, it must be because I was just so smart. There are a lot of smart people out there. It must be because I worked harder than everybody else. Let me tell you something – there are a whole bunch of hardworking people out there. If you were successful, somebody along the line gave you some help. There was a great teacher somewhere in your life. Somebody helped to create this unbelievable American system that we have that allowed you to thrive. Somebody invested in roads and bridges. If you’ve got a business. you didn’t build that. Somebody else made that happen.”

'Business' is singular.

IF YOU'VE GOT A BUSINESS, YOU DIDN'T BUILD THAT

Roads and Bridges ...are plural. Meaning MANY roads and bridges. He did't say ALL that, referring to many or several bridges. He could have, but he didn't. Or maybe Obama also meant that someone else BUILT those teachers ? It's utterly nonsensical to believe Obama WASN'T talking about building a small business, as the word "that" is literally in the same sentence as the word " business ", to which 'that' refers. Yes, small business owners did, indeed BUILD THAT.

Thanks Auraptor, I enjoyed that. Now could you answer my questions about the nature of real science?

It's not personal. It's just war.

KPO

Thursday, July 26, 2012 3:25 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by mal4prez:
Niki - your own language reveals something sad. Global warming is not a belief system. It makes no sense to ask whether anyone BELIEVES in it or not. Evidence supports it, or not. Personal belief has no bearing on the matter.

But face it Mal4, the majority of people are not scientists, and are not capable of reviewing all the evidence, and interpreting it. The evidence may be clear to climate scientists, but it simply isn't to the man on the street; this man to a large extent has to take it on faith (or not) that the scientists know what they are doing, and are telling him the truth.

So I would contend that for the majority of people 'belief' is the right word.

It's not personal. It's just war.

SIGNYM

Thursday, July 26, 2012 3:45 AM

"Shocking" Greenland Ice Melt: Global Warming or Just Heat Wave?
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2012/07/120725-greenland-ice-s
heet-melt-satellites-nasa-space-science/

New Antarctic ice shelf threatened by warming
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/09/us-antarctica-global-warming
-idUSBRE84811E20120509

Well, the Arctic ice is disappearing more than ever before, buildings on permafrost are leaning over and caving in, big chunks of the Greenland ice shield- which existed long before humans came on the scene- are breaking off. Same as the Antarctic. This year, the middle part of America is burning up... and, I mean burning, not just scorching. Last year, it was Texas and the middle of Russia. Next year.... who knows?

The "common man" (or woman) WOULD know by now that we are in deep trouble, if they (1) weren't constantly sedated and lied to by the media, (2) too afraid to look, and (3) felt like there was any prayer that they COULD do something effective.

Well, they can. but it means taking on those in power.

All of those great technical solutions aren't worth a cup of warm spit until TPTB are no longer in power.

MAL4PREZ

Thursday, July 26, 2012 5:11 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by kpo:
Quote:
Originally posted by mal4prez:
Niki - your own language reveals something sad. Global warming is not a belief system. It makes no sense to ask whether anyone BELIEVES in it or not. Evidence supports it, or not. Personal belief has no bearing on the matter.

But face it Mal4, the majority of people are not scientists, and are not capable of reviewing all the evidence, and interpreting it. The evidence may be clear to climate scientists, but it simply isn't to the man on the street; this man to a large extent has to take it on faith (or not) that the scientists know what they are doing, and are telling him the truth.

So I would contend that for the majority of people 'belief' is the right word.

It's not personal. It's just war.

If 40 million people believe in a stupid idea, it's still a stupid idea and belongs in the garbage. If you want to rise about trash level, you have to make an effort. It's not beyond anyone here (except those who we know will not even try) to do better than "belief" regarding something as important as this. It's certainly not beyond Niki.

Asking whether a handful of posters at some random sci-fi website "BELIEVE" in GW is not only a waste of typing, it's a step backwards. No matter what we say, the deniers will continue to believe what they believe and nothing will change that, and they LOVE having a chance to proselytize. You cannot break their belief-based denial, but by accepting their mentality you insult the reasonable minority who've looked at the evidence and formed conclusions based on an open mind and observation of nature, without reliance on blind belief.

Please read the following carefully: I DO NOT BELIEVE in anthropomorphic global warming. What's happened over the past ten years is that I find that observations/evidence of events on planet Earth support the theory of AGW. If you cannot see the difference in these two statements, you won't make any meaningful headway in this debate, but will continue to be a clucking chicken fluttering about the yard while the grown-ups talk at the table in the farmhouse. You'll be nothing but pointless noise in the background if you continue to address this as "belief".

What I suggest is that Niki ask whether folks find *such-and-such* new evidence convincing. It may sound like I'm pecking at silly wording things, but this is hugely important. The only way to bring up the level of the discourse is to NOT fall into the trap of asking what people *believe* about GW. Belief systems will not change: if you waste time taking that approach you are playing into the deist's game: a huge waste of time. Stick with evidence, not beliefs. No matter what. Otherwise, it is not science.

GW IS well-supported science. That's the whole point. Belief does not enter into it. If you let that word come in, you have failed to understand.

Added bonus re belief systems: I've known this song for a while, but tonight I sat down and really listened to it. I think it's about Darwin's discovery of evidence of evolution, and where that shift has left us: lost at sea, without our previous belief systems. Personally I find this idea freeing, but I can see that other people may see it as it is in the song: since Darwin did his thing, they're lost at sea. They no longer no solid ground of God creation/belief under their feet, and it scares them shitless:

Who could heed the words of Charlie Darwin,
Fighting for a system built to fail
Spooning water from a broken vessel
As far as I can see there is no land

...

Oh my God, the water's cold and shapeless.
Oh my God, it's all around.
Oh my God, life is dark and formless
Oh my God, it's all around

OONJERAH

Thursday, July 26, 2012 5:40 AM

Belief?

There are people, scientists, who know all about Global Warming/Climate Change.
They know if it is real or not. The rest of us can only choose to trust them --
or not.
After accurate knowledge of the situation, Belief is the most important thing
as I see it. This didn't happen so suddenly at all, and evidence about it has
been observed and reported for more than 50 years.

Because of disBelief in Global Warming, most of us here in America have chosen
to ignore it instead of taking responsibility both personally and politically.
If we could just be more factual and honest about the situation, we might have
changed our ways decades ago, when it could have made some difference.

Belief is needed to make constructive change.

=========================
I am convinced that life is 10% what happens to me and 90% of how I react to it. ~Charles R Swindoll