Did Bush lie? It doesn't matter any more.
POSTED BY: Geezer
UPDATED: Tuesday, July 11, 2023 18:35
VIEWED: 11007
PAGE 8 of 11
Quote:
Originally posted by SignyM:
It's a tennet of science that you can never prove a hypothesis, only disprove it. So if your hypothesis doesn't work in all cases, it must be modified.
If you look at the poorest nations, you will also see that they are generally capitalist and often have elections as well.
I propose a different hypothesis. I believe that I can show, both historically and geographically, that the introduction of capitalism invariably leads to greater disparity in wealth, which occurs both nationally and internationally. The USA, being the sole world superpower, has managed to export its poverty to other nations (like Peru, Nigeria, and Nicaragua) and therefor capitalism cannot serve as a basis for worldwide prosperity, only for localized prosperity.
Pulled off the 50 bottom countries on the UN report (beginning with Botswana, #128) and started checking their governments and economies in the CIA fact book. Just have 12 so far. The seven that have a democratic form of government of some type have had that type of government for less than 30 years, following either a colonial or internal authoritarian regieme. The others are a couple of monarchies, and communist or military governments. In the few cases where stats are available, the percent of the workforce employed in industry hovers around 5%, making me wonder if the capitalist label is a good fit. I'll finish tonight and provide you with a nice spreadsheet, if you'd like.
I'll look into the "exporting poverty" in a while. Got a meeting now.
Edit: Looks like the meeting resulted in some homework. May be a bit later on the stats.
"Keep the Shiny side up"
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Rue and SignyM,
Sorry, but it looks like you lost one in the Socialist ranks.
Hungary Socialists Pick Businessman for PM
Updated: Wednesday, Aug. 25, 2004 - 3:25 PM
By KARL PETER KIRK
Associated Press Writer
BUDAPEST, Hungary (AP) - The ruling Socialist Party chose one of Hungary's richest businessmen on Wednesday to become the new prime minister, resolving a split with a smaller party that had threatened to undo the center-left governing coalition.
Full story at:
http://wtop.com/index.php?nid=105&sid=250849
"Keep the Shiny side up"
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While you're taking care of business, let me toss out some thoughts as idle speculation. Each one, unfortuantely, deserves a full discussion- something neither one of us probably has the time for.
My hypothesis is that "pure" capitalism progressively concentrates money into fewer and fewer hands. The wealth disparity inevitably creates poverty and unemployment, and by reducing aggregate demand eventually leads to an economic depression (which is distinct from stock market crash and other speculative failures).
Some say that unemployment, poverty, and cyclical economy is the cost of system that is extraordinarily good at creating technological progress and raising the standard of living overall. There are several lines of observation and theory that are generally called on to support this idea.
While acknowldeging brutality during industrialization- such as the slums of London- people often point to the USA, UK, EU, Japan, and the other developed nations as the "happy ending" of the capitalist story. Given time, all nations will be similarly prosperous.
The other aspect that is often pointed to is technological development- the discovery of electronics (for example) and the implementation of labor-saving devices which make production a thousand-fold (or more) efficient than production by hand.
The third aspect that people often point to is a more theoretical one. The difference between the aggregate value of goods produced and the aggregate demand (created mainly by "labor costs") is usually called "profit". However, any time you produce more than you consume, you could also call it "savings". It may be ENFORCED saving, but it's saving nonetheless. This is the power of capitalism.
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Just tossing out another point/ observation: It occurred to me that the UN Index of Human Development contains parameters that are not particularly sensitive to increases in economic polarization. For example, indexes based on averages- average life span, average per capita income, even average per capita energy consumption- fall prey to the problem of "averages: If you have ten baseball players sitting on a bench and nine of them make $50,000 a year and the tenth makes $10 million, the average income is over $1 million.
More sensitive indicators would be infant and maternal mortality (deaths per thousand), percent adult literacy, poverty rates etc.
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Infant mortality, maternal death rates, literacy rates and average lifespan are all good indicators of overall social well-being. A very wealthy but small group can't improve those averages enough to overcome the figures of the larger group.
Part of that has to do with the ratios of how many people are in one group vs the other. Plus there are other factors that have to do with biological and logical limits, and the mathematics of averages.
With lifespan, you can't raise the lifespan of the small group enough to touch the average. A few people would have to live for thousands of years to make a difference. That is why lifespan is such a powerful metric. It takes A LOT to bring up the average even 6 months.
Infant mortality looks at a limited post-natal timeframe, which reflects months of pre-natal maternal care. It's not something you can change drastically unless you've improved pre-natal conditions enough, for enough women, long enough to be reflected in the average. Plus there is a natural limit in how good the numbers can get for a small, wealthy and healthy group. You can't have an infant mortality of less than zero, and that limits its effects on the overall average. Maternal death rates also fall under these factors.
Literacy has similar considerations. A small wealthy group can't be super-literate. Well, I guess they can be, but it isn't measured, and so rates do reflect overall conditions, rather than the extreme advantages of a small group.
Edited: So, in sum, for a small group to affect the averages of a much larger group, they have to have extreme values. Some parameters (lifespan, infant mortality, maternal mortality, and literacy rates - come to think of it vaccination rates as well) can't attain the extreme values required to skew the average.
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Geezer,
I am against capitalism as a dead-end path that leads ultimately to planet-wide destruction. I'm not in favor of socialism per se, but I see it as an improvement over capitalism. I do favor sanity. In fact I have thought of a society which starts at the current technological level, makes use of its guarantees, but redirects economic (and social) goals. I have not seen anything like it discussed anywhere, I can't reference you to papers or other works, and I prefer not to explain it until I have researched and developed it. Rest assured it is not socialism.
"Even if you're the independent subsistence farmer, the cage isn't under your control." I take it you have not lived in another culture. This culture has conformed itself specifically to support the capitalist economic system, but the strictures go beyond economic. You can't choose certain things in the US, not because they are forbidden or too expensive, but because they don't exist.
"Capitalist democracies are generally the most technologically advanced countries." Let me refer you again to "Guns, Germs and Steel". Your impressions (they're too formless to be called ideas) are untenable. You don't take into account the military advantage of 1400's western technology, which led to advantage for western cultures in general; and to obliteration, conquest and colonization around the globe. You casually mention the history of colonization without seeming to realize that other countries were ravaged for centuries by the capitalist countries you continue to portray as benign.
"But lets look at this overall, instead of picking one country or area. Here's a link to a nice map of life expectancy by country."
This is a crock, and so obvious it's an insult. Don't stoop so low, it doesn't become you.
Sub-Saharan Africa has only recently emerged from colonialism. I hope I don't need to enumerate the instability, social destruction, poverty, and lack of development left in the wake. They suffer from many things. But mostly, they suffer not from a lack of capitalism, but from an excess of being on the wrong end.
It's no surprise the Chinese lifespan isn't as long as in western countries. But western countries have a vastly different history than the entire rest of the world (the topic of Guns, Germs and Steel). The divergence starts with the scientific and technological revolution of the Renaissance, 4 centuries before the advent of capitalism. From the Renaissance followed military conquest and colonization; later, mechanization; and finally capitalism, which begat more colonization. Having been the conquerors puts western countries at an advantage over the conquered.
So it is more meaningful (and honest) to compare two non-western countries similar to each other that differ mainly in their economic system - China and India. They both have massive populations. Until recently they were both rural, uneducated, non-industrial countries. Which has the better lifespan? But if you wonder if genetic or other unknown differences account for China's advantage, Kerala, which is a socialist state IN India far outstrips the whole of India.
Whether or not Russia has achieved capitalism, it certainly is no longer communist. And it was at the death of communism that lifespan dropped. Communism was better than whatever took its place.
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Quote:
Originally posted by SignyM:
While you're taking care of business, let me toss out some thoughts as idle speculation. Each one, unfortuantely, deserves a full discussion- something neither one of us probably has the time for.
I'll give my Cliff Notes opinions, though.
Quote:
My hypothesis is that "pure" capitalism progressively concentrates money into fewer and fewer hands. The wealth disparity inevitably creates poverty and unemployment, and by reducing aggregate demand eventually leads to an economic depression (which is distinct from stock market crash and other speculative failures).
If there ever could be a "pure" capitalism, this would probably be true, but pure capitalism in a democratic system is as unlikely to exist as pure marxist socialism. Laws against some of the worse elements of capitalism (monoply, environmental damage, minimum wage, right of labor to organize, etc.) are forced by the voting populace.
Quote:
Some say that unemployment, poverty, and cyclical economy is the cost of system that is extraordinarily good at creating technological progress and raising the standard of living overall. There are several lines of observation and theory that are generally called on to support this idea.
I think that there should be ways to ameliorate these problems within the capitalist system. The Swedish "Middle Way" where taxes on the fruits of a capitalist economy support universal social programs might be worth examining.
Quote:
While acknowldeging brutality during industrialization- such as the slums of London- people often point to the USA, UK, EU, Japan, and the other developed nations as the "happy ending" of the capitalist story. Given time, all nations will be similarly prosperous.
I can't go back in time and resolve the brutality of industrialization, but conditions have improved remarkably for the workers in the industrialized countries you mention. Efforts are underway to improve conditions in countries we export jobs to, but admittedly more could be done.
Quote:
The other aspect that is often pointed to is technological development- the discovery of electronics (for example) and the implementation of labor-saving devices which make production a thousand-fold (or more) efficient than production by hand.
And I tend to believe that the capitalist system supports this better than any other. It provides the incentive (profit)to invest capital in developing advances.
Quote:
The third aspect that people often point to is a more theoretical one. The difference between the aggregate value of goods produced and the aggregate demand (created mainly by "labor costs") is usually called "profit". However, any time you produce more than you consume, you could also call it "savings". It may be ENFORCED saving, but it's saving nonetheless. This is the power of capitalism.
I'd say profit is the excess of payment received for goods over the total cost of producing them but we're on the same page. I see profit as money that's either re-invested in the business to improve it, invested in some other enterprise, banked, in which case the bank invests it, or spent, giving someone else a profit.
"Keep the Shiny side up"
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Quote:
Originally posted by rue:
Geezer,
I am against capitalism as a dead-end path that leads ultimately to planet-wide destruction. I'm not in favor of socialism per se, but I see it as an improvement over capitalism. I do favor sanity. In fact I have thought of a society which starts at the current technological level, makes use of its guarantees, but redirects economic (and social) goals.
If you can get everyone to agree with this, that would be fine. Otherwise the only way to accomplish it would be an authoritarian regime. I'm against that.
Quote:
"Even if you're the independent subsistence farmer, the cage isn't under your control." I take it you have not lived in another culture. This culture has conformed itself specifically to support the capitalist economic system, but the strictures go beyond economic. You can't choose certain things in the US, not because they are forbidden or too expensive, but because they don't exist.
I'm not sure what your response has to do with my point that every society has strictures on it.
Quote:
"Capitalist democracies are generally the most technologically advanced countries." Let me refer you again to "Guns, Germs and Steel". Your impressions (they're too formless to be called ideas) are untenable. You don't take into account the military advantage of 1400's western technology, which led to advantage for western cultures in general; and to obliteration, conquest and colonization around the globe. You casually mention the history of colonization without seeming to realize that other countries were ravaged for centuries by the capitalist countries you continue to portray as benign.
Capitalist democracies aren't the most technologically advanced? who is, then?
I'm aware of the history of western arms and conquest, mostly done by monarchies, as I recall.
I'm aware of the evils of colonialism. I didn't think that I'd have to define it every time I used the term. Please quote where I ever pictured colonialism as benign.
Quote:
"But lets look at this overall, instead of picking one country or area. Here's a link to a nice map of life expectancy by country."
This is a crock, and so obvious it's an insult. Don't stoop so low, it doesn't become you.
Insult you? The idea never crossed my mind. Maybe that's beacuse my thoughts are "too formless to be called ideas".
The map is accurate as far as I can tell. why a crock, then? because it doesn't support what you believe?
Quote:
Sub-Saharan Africa has only recently emerged from colonialism. I hope I don't need to enumerate the instability, social destruction, poverty, and lack of development left in the wake. They suffer from many things. But mostly, they suffer not from a lack of capitalism, but from an excess of being on the wrong end.
No argument there. so lets both leave Africa out of the equation as a special case.
Quote:
So it is more meaningful (and honest) to compare two non-western countries similar to each other that differ mainly in their economic system - China and India. They both have massive populations. Until recently they were both rural, uneducated, non-industrial countries. Which has the better lifespan? But if you wonder if genetic or other unknown differences account for China's advantage, Kerala, which is a socialist state IN India far outstrips the whole of India.
Whether or not Russia has achieved capitalism, it certainly is no longer communist. And it was at the death of communism that lifespan dropped. Communism was better than whatever took its place.
OK, then, lets compare two other countries that "Until recently ... were both rural, uneducated, non-industrial countries." Also in the same location. Say South Korea and North Korea. Should I go on with this, or do you see where I'm heading?
"Keep the Shiny side up"
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My Cliff Note responses! (more this weekend I hope!)
"If there ever could be a "pure" capitalism, this would probably be true, but pure capitalism in a democratic system is as unlikely to exist as pure marxist socialism. Laws against some of the worse elements of capitalism (monoply, environmental damage, minimum wage, right of labor to organize, etc.) are forced by the voting populace."
What you are saying is that democracies offer political feedback into the system, and that societies with feedback can't go too far astray from the welfare of the voting population.
In theory I agree, but in practice I think there are too many OTHER forms of control, each one requires a feedback loop. In addition, the interference of money in the voting process has virtually negated democracy's effectiveness.
"I think that there should be ways to ameliorate these problems within the capitalist system. The Swedish "Middle Way" where taxes on the fruits of a capitalist economy support universal social programs might be worth examining"
Yes, this is one possibility.
"I can't go back in time and resolve the brutality of industrialization, but conditions have improved remarkably for the workers in the industrialized countries you mention. Efforts are underway to improve conditions in countries we export jobs to, but admittedly more could be done."
However, at the expense of jobs in the USA. The problem is that capitalism inevitably creates unemployment and economic polarization- it is an irreducible feature of the way the system works.
"And I tend to believe that the capitalist system supports this better than any other. It provides the incentive (profit)to invest capital in developing advances."
Do you mean "discovering/ inventing" advances or "building/ implementing" advances? The first I would disagree with totally, the second I would disagree with partially.
Most of the major discoveries that I can think of- starting with language, fire, pottery/ weaving, agriculture, alphabet on through the printing press, microbes and the internet were made without the profit motive. The intnert, for example, started with a military project (DARPA)... but you're an IT person so you know this.
If you mean that capitalism is good at IMPLEMENTING discoveries, I agree- but only where there is a significant potential profit involved. Schooling (the implementation of math, language, printing and science), roadways, sewage systems, public health, affordable housing are all significant implementations that have been shunned by capitalism. These services are typically good in socialist nations (or sub-regions, like Kerala) and poor in capitalist countries.
"I'd say profit is the excess of payment received for goods over the total cost of producing them but we're on the same page. I see profit as money that's either re-invested in the business to improve it, invested in some other enterprise, banked, in which case the bank invests it, or spent, giving someone else a profit."
This is where "yes-but" comes in. Profit in capitalism is essentially directed three ways- (1) either reinvested to "improve" business which generally means to reduce labor costs. In the face of reduced demand, profit may also be used to (2) acquire other businesses, which generally leads to a net reduction in competition (monopolism) and (3) speculation, which is really based on the "bigger fool" theory. If you look at (1) and (2) you will see that they concentrate money.
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I'm going to insert myself into this conversation.
As far as I can tell colonialism worked hand in glove with capitalism. In the case of modern colonial history, it was the extension of capitalism though military and poltical means. So I don't think you can exclude Africa... or India, Latin America, the Phillipines, the Mideast etc. for that matter- as special cases. They ARE part of the capitalist system, just the part that gets the shitty end of the stick.
As part of that, I would look at the USA's 800+ military installations around the world as part of our empire. Our "fight against Communism" was not to make to world safe for democracy (we crushed a number of ths along the way) but to make the world safe for capitalism.
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