Real World Event Discussions

US denies jet flew over Venezuela

POSTED BY: GinoBiffaroni
UPDATED: Thursday, January 14, 2010 00:03
VIEWED: 9450
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Monday, January 11, 2010 3:08 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Geezer:
Quote:

Originally posted by GinoBiffaroni:
or the US did buzz them with a P-3 like he says...



Can you think of any good reason for the US to do so?

"Keep the Shiny side up"



as in the case of China or Cuba... no

other than to keep the piss off with them and Columbia going in order to pressure the Colombians...

Mind you I accept that all the info isn't public

Doesn't change flying military aircraft into someone else's airspace is against international law

Maybe like in the Iraq case I posted above, they are looking to get somebody shot down



Either your with the terrorists, or ... your with the terrorists

Life is like a jar of Jalapeño peppers.
What you do today, might Burn Your Ass Tomorrow"

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Monday, January 11, 2010 1:18 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Geezer:
Quote:

Originally posted by GinoBiffaroni:
or the US did buzz them with a P-3 like he says...



Can you think of any good reason for the US to do so?

"Keep the Shiny side up"




Aw, crap - now we need valid REASONS for trying to pick shit with other nations?

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Monday, January 11, 2010 2:35 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by GinoBiffaroni:
...other than to keep the piss off with them and Columbia going in order to pressure the Colombians...



Chavez will take care of that on his on. He needs external or 'class' enemies to keep folks' minds off what his government is doing.

For example, he's gonna blame rising prices for imports - which now cost twice as much due to his economic policy - on merchants 'speculation', and encourage folks to 'denounce' any merchant who won't sell his goods for less than it now costs him to buy them wholesale - with the threat of the National Guard 'nationalizing' any businesses that are denounced.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8451056.stm

"Keep the Shiny side up"

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Monday, January 11, 2010 6:26 PM

Due to his economic policy ? Thats completely discounting what is going on with the global economy...

Venezuela does not operate in a vacuum


As for " the threat of the National Guard 'nationalizing' any businesses that are denounced. "

is that any different than using the IRS or local law enforcement in the US to seize businesses operating outside the laws the government comes up with ?

" Why would the US do that ? "

Why are the US deployed down there to begin with ?

Perhaps that might be a great place to start the inevitable cost cutting




Either your with the terrorists, or ... your with the terrorists

Life is like a jar of Jalapeño peppers.
What you do today, might Burn Your Ass Tomorrow"

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Monday, January 11, 2010 6:35 PM

Quote:

Well, yeah. Along with most every country in the world, at one time or another. Has it ever worked out well in the long run?
Well -yes, son, it has. Just ask the Chinese.

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Monday, January 11, 2010 6:46 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by JKiddo:
Quote:

Well, yeah. Along with most every country in the world, at one time or another. Has it ever worked out well in the long run?
Well -yes, son, it has. Just ask the Chinese.




Oh, Signy - why must you hate America?

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Monday, January 11, 2010 11:54 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by GinoBiffaroni:
Due to his economic policy ? Thats completely discounting what is going on with the global economy...


Sorry, but the economic policy we've been discussing, the two-tier devaluation of the Bolivar, is what's gonna cause prices on imports in Venezuela to go up(especially in the short term), not the world economic situation. The devaluation is also what Chavez is referencing in his 'speculation' comments.

Quote:

As for " the threat of the National Guard 'nationalizing' any businesses that are denounced. "

is that any different than using the IRS or local law enforcement in the US to seize businesses operating outside the laws the government comes up with ?


Although it really doesn't matter in this situation what the US does or doesn't do, especially to folks in Venezuela who may lose their businesses by decree if they're denounced: yes. For one thing, there has to be due process in the U.S. Charges filed and trials held, not just presidential decrees.

Quote:

" Why would the US do that ? "

Why are the US deployed down there to begin with ?


Well, in the Netherlands Antilles it's probably mostly Navy planes for weather monitoring and joint training to support defense treaties with the Dutch. In Columbia it's for the drug war, which I agree should be cut.

BTW, hate to nitpick, but it should really be "Either you're with the terrorists, or ... you're with the terrorists".


"Keep the Shiny side up"

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Tuesday, January 12, 2010 12:16 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Geezer:
Originally posted by GinoBiffaroni:
Due to his economic policy ? Thats completely discounting what is going on with the global economy...

Sorry, but the economic policy we've been discussing, the two-tier devaluation of the Bolivar, is what's gonna cause prices on imports in Venezuela to go up(especially in the short term), not the world economic situation. The devaluation is also what Chavez is referencing in his 'speculation' comments.




My understanding is this economic policy is a response to the global economic crisis, a projected lowering of oil revenues, etc

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/chavezs-snap-devaluat
ion-sparks-panic-in-the-aisles-1863904.html


" The move is nonetheless a humiliation for Mr Chavez, who changed the official name of the currency to the "strong bolivar" three years ago, promising an end to devaluations. While the government had used gushing oil revenues to pay for social programs during the boom years, the falling price of oil after 2008 and the global financial crisis have sent the economy into recession. Away from formal currency controls, the value of the bolivar had already collapsed on the black market to about one-third of its official level. "

And this gamble is also a political move, such as the " stimulus " programs in the US

" Devaluing the currency: What happens next ...

When Harold Wilson, the British Prime Minister, devalued sterling in 1967, he told the public that "the pound in your pocket" would be worth the same. He was being a bit disingenuous. It depends what you are buying with it.

A weaker currency means that buying goods from abroad is suddenly more costly – but politicians routinely hope there will be compensating benefits. If imports are more expensive, the reverse is true: exports are cheaper, something which can boost the export sectors of an economy.

That happened when the pound was devalued again in 1992, crashing out of the Exchange Rate Mechanism. Since then, the value of sterling has fluctuated according to trading on global financial markets.

Venezuela, by contrast, runs a system that fixes the exchange rate of its currency, the bolivar. And like Britain in 1992, it has found that global economic realities eventually catch up.

A country cannot go forever with an exchange rate that is out of sync with the balance of its economic interactions with the rest of the world. So while Venezuelans last week needed only 2.15 bolivars to buy one US dollar's-worth of goods from abroad, this week they need 4.3 bolivars. That means that imported goods suddenly cost more – something that will inevitably hit the pockets of consumers, but Hugo Chavez has his eye on a specific offsetting benefit. The US dollars that his government makes from selling Venezuelan oil will go further inside the country. Whether they go into infrastructure investment or straightforward giveaways to the poor, Mr Chavez now has more bounty to spend ahead of September's elections. "

So it is what it is, protecting jobs, creating infrastructure projects ( a bit cheaper ) to get or keep this moving until oil prices bounce back

Quote:

As for " the threat of the National Guard 'nationalizing' any businesses that are denounced. "

is that any different than using the IRS or local law enforcement in the US to seize businesses operating outside the laws the government comes up with ?
Although it really doesn't matter in this situation what the US does or doesn't do, especially to folks in Venezuela who may lose their businesses by decree if they're denounced: yes. For one thing, there has to be due process in the U.S. Charges filed and trials held, not just presidential decrees.




There are examples of Presidential decrees in the US where due process has not existed, but that is not for this thread...

I do not know what the legal process down there is , or how this will play... have to wait and see what happens when this law is enforced.

Quote:

" Why would the US

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Tuesday, January 12, 2010 4:28 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by GinoBiffaroni:
My understanding is this economic policy is a response to the global economic crisis, a projected lowering of oil revenues, etc


Per the article you cite, it seems to me that Pres. Chavez artifically kept the Bolivar strong against the dollar when he thought it would benefit him, and is now betting that he and his buddies will rake in more Bolivars selling oil, and screw the folks who have to pay more for consumer goods. I expect that the next election there will be a farce, making the elections in Afghanistan and Iraq, for example, look like models of democracy.

Quote:

There are examples of Presidential decrees in the US where due process has not existed, but that is not for this thread...

I agree. What the U.S. did or didn't do relating to American businesses isn't germane to what Venezuela's government does to business in Venezuela at all.

Quote:

I think the war on drugs would be better attacked on the treatment and rehabilitation side, with possible savings in law enforcement and related budgets... but I am no expert.

You'll get no argument from me on that. U.S. drug policy for quite a while has been a massive waste of time, money, and lives.

"Keep the Shiny side up"

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Tuesday, January 12, 2010 4:49 AM

Well, I don't think we will agree on Venezuelas economic policy...

It could go either way, boosting corruption as well as saving jobs by boosting exports and assisting the lower class folk who are not in the market for high price imports...

I can only point out in that same cite Britain did the same in 1967, and again in 1992 to mixed results.

I am not sure what an election more of a farce than Afghanistan might look like, Monty Python scripted perhaps... If they maintain the international monitoring they have had in their previous elections I have hopes they will do fine... While Chavez might not be popular with wealthy landowners down there, his base seems to be the folk who were disenfranchised peasants under previous regimes, and this economic policy seems to protect their interests... ie jobs, food, healthcare.

I wonder if the other options for him were to borrow tons of money to keep things running, or slash the services the social support net offer... this may have been the best of bad choices... at least in the short term.



Either you Are with the terrorists, or ... you Are with the terrorists

Life is like a jar of Jalapeño peppers.
What you do today, might Burn Your Ass Tomorrow"

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