McCain now ahead of Obama and Clinton
POSTED BY: Skywalken
UPDATED: Wednesday, March 26, 2008 19:07
VIEWED: 6581
PAGE 3 of 5
Here's an interesting analysis of Senator McCain's prospects by a blogger:
"Even before he knows who his opponent will be, the 2008 presidential election looks to be developing into a shoe-in for Senator John McCain and the Republicans.
Granted, there is a lot of time between now and November, and a lot can happen in a very short time when it comes to presidential elections. Heck, three of the four names on the ballot have yet to be determined. How then, can one reasonably project the winner of an election that hasn't even begun? The answer lies in a multitude of factors that will make a Democratic victory in November extremely unlikely, if not impossible.
This may come as a bit of a surprise to those paying attention. For one thing, Senator McCain is the candidate for the party that produced the sitting president, who also happens to be one of the most unpopular presidents in American history. Additionally, voting trends in House and Senate races the past two years have overwhelmingly favored the Democrats. On top of all that, McCain is extremely unpopular among conservatives who have long been the GOP's electoral bread-and-butter.
So how does this add up to an easy victory for McCain in November? The answer lies in a multitude of factors:
1. Match-up dynamics - McCain matches up far better in a one-on-one contest against a Democrat than he ever did in a primary field full of Republicans. His broad appeal may have hurt him among conservatives, but will help him lure in independent and crossover voters.
2. Conservatives will vote for him anyway - The conservative faction of the Republican Party will turn out in force to vote for McCain, whether they like him or not. In fact, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if conservatives turn out in record numbers to support the candidate they said they'd never vote for. The reason for this is that conservatives don't really vote for their candidate as they vote against liberals and Democrats. Regardless of who the Democrats' candidate turns out to be, the GOP's conservative base will have plenty of reason to show up to the polls to vote against him or her.
3. The Democratic Primaries - Democrat voter haven't helped out their own cause much by dragging out their party's primary until the bitter end. Supporters of both candidates have been somewhat embittered by what they consider unfair tactics being deployed by the other. McCain and the GOP have at least a two-month head start to began putting together a case against either Clinton or Obama. This time will also aide them in fundraising activities. In addition to all this, until one of them wins, Senators Clinton and Obama will continue to spend precious campaign funds beating up each other, which helps neither of them defeat Senator McCain.
4. Florida and Michigan - The DNC shot itself in the foot when Howard Dean made the decision to strip the two potential swing-states of their delegates to the national convention. In what has largely been seen as a slight to the voters of these two states, the Democratic nominee will have some catching up to do if he or she were to win either of these two states. No matter who wins the Democrat Primary, there will be loyal Democrat voters who will inevitably feel as though their candidate was given the shaft by the party.
5. The Obama preacher issue - Like it or not, Senator Obama's association with his radical church and pastor will still be a major issue in November if he wins the Democrat nomination. This effect will be exacerbated by his middle name (Hussein), regardless of whether it's fair or not. The Democratic Party leaders know this, and it will be intriguing to see whether or not and to what extent they pressure the Superdelegates, if in fact Obama finishes with more popular delegates. The Superdelegate system exists for just this scenario --- if the voters choose the wrong candidate (the one less likely to win the main election). If Obama wins the popular delegate count, the question becomes whether or not the party has the fortitude to actually use the s
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Not a bad subjective summary, but you know, I think the author has severely underestimated the backlash and blowback effect of back to back Bush.
As I mentioned in another thread, Fremgirl is a staunch law and order conservative, and according to her, after this debacle she ain't never, ever, not in a million years ever voting for a Republican ever again.
Unfortunately she includes Ron Paul in that, no matter how she feels about him or his policies, that (R) means no way in hell.
Strangely, one of my southern contacts, who has some leanings toward the whole white supremacy concept (idiotic, you ask me) is cussin and spittin all the while planning to vote for Obama although he'd rather be roasted in boiling oil, cause the Republicans failed utterly on immigration, and every other platform that seemed to matter to him - and the thought of "that woman" in charge offends him utterly since he doesn't trust her not to try outlawing his guns (he collects em) or to do anything about "all these foreigners" either...
So I get to laugh as he cusses and spits about having to not only change his voter registration, but throws a genuine hellfire and brimstone tirade about the only candidate he can possibly stomach being... a, well, you know what he called him.
And yeah, I yanked his chain about it too.
"So, you mean to tell me the Klan is votin Obama ?"
What he said after that, I'll not repeat here, bwahahaha.
As for Dean, I suspect he might have done that little bit of sandbagging intentionally in return for what the DNC did to him, could be he's holding a bit of a grudge.
Whatever puny bit of respect I had for his party, and it weren't much, I lost when they shafted him for not toeing the party line instead of serving the people - and lost all respect for him when in response he kowtowed to the bastards.
Neither party is worth a shit, nor are their candidates, and other than the general drift and direction of the corruption, it's six o one, and half dozen to the other, but time has a way of makin people forget - public perception seems to be that Clinton screwed Lewinksy, but Bush screwed us all...
Which ain't true, cause it weren't Bush that stuck us with NAFTA, but try tellin folk anythin these days...
Anyhow, I suspect you could prolly dig up the bones of Carl Panzram, slap a (D) on them and make a fair showing off the blowback alone, simply cause it's not an (R).
Not hard to beat a pack of laughingstocks, all you have to do is manage to just be not AS stupid or corrupt - and it's pretty shameful that the two berks offered from the other side have trouble with this.
-Frem
"THIS is civilisation ? thank Crom I am a barbarian!"
-Conan
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Obama is fading fast & his "negatives" are only now beginning to explode in the media. The Dems are in a real pickle 'cause he's their candidate. He has the delegate lead and Hillary cannot catch him...Only the super delegates can alter the Dem's fate...but if they toss aside Obama for a "more electable" Hillary, then they will have created another set of problems for themselves. The Dem. Convention looks to be a real hum-dinger.
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Yep, I may bust on the Repugs for incompetence in the world domination game, but goddamn, man...
The Dems are incompetent even getting to the table!
They oughta change the party motto.
"The Democratic Party, snatching defeat from the jaws of victory since 1988 and counting!"
If they weren't so damn wishywashy and gutless, they coulda not only had this one on a plate, but made a case for RICO prosecution/persecution (however you wanna look at it) of their opposition.
The fact that there's any competition in this at all is due to something best called...
Parity of Incompetence.
-F
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Yeah, can't disagree with you on this. A strong Dem candidate should be ahead in the national polls for President by something like 65% to 35%...even with the Dem Congress approval rate in the low 20's, the Dems should never have been in a horse race with McCain. I cannot believe that McCain is polling so strongly. I cannot think of one reason why actually. I think the fallout over the Obama mess(s) is going to rip the party apart shortly, even before the Convention. Hillary smells blood in the water. She must be working on those super delegates night & day....playing on their fears of a McCain presidency. Poor Howard Dean...in his wildest nightmares he never could have imagined a scenario like this. And the real hoot in all this for me personally is ...the media. They don't know what the hell to do. They alternatively attack Hillary, and then they attack Obama. I honestly never thought I'd see a day when the media would hound them so hard...I really don't get it...or is it that they just have nothing else to do right now? MSNBC, if anybody actually watched that network, is taking great joy in this....Dan Abrams & Olbermann are excoriating every word they say, and calling them on the carpet for it....I keep looking to verify that I'm seeing this on MSNBC...what the hell is going on. I can't believe for a minute they support McCain, so is this Dem bashing just a new sport for them....ie why just limit your hateful attacks to Republicans when you can double or triple your fun by doing the same to Democrats.
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Quote:
why just limit your hateful attacks to Republicans when you can double or triple your fun by doing the same to Democrats.
Exactly!
Imma equal opportunity flamer, save some for the Greens too, that sellout creep Nader shouldn't get a pass neither.
-F
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Rasmussen now has McCain ahead of Obama by 7 percent, McCain ahead of Clinton by 10 percent.
Today, it's McCain's 49% to Obama's 42% and McCain's 51% to Clinton's 41%.
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Well, fuck me...
Canada is looking more cozy each day...
-Danny
Listen well... will you marry me?
Not now, Boy
Are you well in the Suffering?
You've been the most gracious of hosts
I may be invited, girl, but I'm not coming in
Hey, Hey!
If it was up to me (you had your hold)
I would've figured you out
Way before the year clocked out
Oh, I hope you're waiting
The Band of the week is... Coheed and Cambria
Gott weiß ich will kein Engel sein.
http://www.myspace.com/otherrandomdude
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Today, Rasmussen has McCain ahead of Clinton by 7 percent, 49% to 42%. McCain is ahead of Obama by 9 percent, 50% to 41%.
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Quote:
Originally posted by Skywalken:
Today, Rasmussen has McCain ahead of Clinton by 7 percent, 49% to 42%. McCain is ahead of Obama by 9 percent, 50% to 41%.
I think we might be seeing a trend here. It looks like McCain and Clinton are splitting up the votes of those deserting Obama.
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