The Iraqi Election

I think you're being unduly cynical here. While cynicism is always welcome, I think that there's a real possibility this will work.

Clearly, the US will manipulate the elections, and try to keep a pro-US govt. But in the long term, the presence of a stable system for each group to express its concerns has its benefits. It's important that the Sunnis get a say, and it may be that special rules of a supermajority may need to be installed to take account of the distribution, or again, the three state solution can be invoked.

I think that keeping this running will be a very difficult task, and if the Bush admin is willing to do nothing else but focus on it, then I'm willing to say there's a chance.

If this happens, which is a big if, I may have to concede that this was worthwhile. I will never be a fan of pre-emptive war, and cannot help but think that there were better plans to do it by.

One counter here, I hear from the Bush crowd this argument: "We tried for a decade to do it the other way, and it didn't work."

No. We tried for 8 years the Clinton way. The Clinton way was clearly much worse than the Bush way in that it killed a lot more people and created no progress at all. It was abominable.

Then there were two years of Bush trying it the Clinton way, but he was really just biding time until he got the okay to do it the Bush way.

But I still have to think that there was a better choice than either the Clinton way or the Bush way. If this had been a Reagan/Bush Sr. operation, he would have sent in an elite team to take out Saddam and replace him proabbly with someone in Saddam's own govt. who we would have made a pre-arranged deal with to start the transformation to democracy. Something like that. Anyway, I can't help but feel that the creation of a new Al Qaeda breeding ground, the destruction of the Iraqi infastructure, and feuling of anti-American sentiment worldwide, which has allowed socialists to gain power in Spain, Brazil, and now Bolivia, plus of course 2000 American lives and countless Iraqis is a very high price to pay.

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Quote:

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Originally posted by dreamtrove:
I think you're being unduly cynical here.

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I think you're being unduly optimistic here. As long as the U.S. is manipulating the elections, there will always be a very vocal (and very correct) minority group in Iraq with the ability to sway people against the government using the idea that Iraqi sovereignty is a front for U.S. puppeteering. The 'stable system' you talk about will collapse unless the overwhelming insurgent and al-Qaida (notice, some of you, how the two aren't the same thing?) presence in the country is neutralized. After this story today:
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/national/252583_cheney19.html
I don't see it happening. The highlight of this link is the fact that Cheney made a surprise visit to Iraq, of which two things happened.
1. No one in the Iraqi government was notified for fear that there might be a leak
2. Iraqi 'security forces' weren't given guns (the assumption being that so many agents have infiltrated even trusted forces that we have no faith in them). From the article:

The daylong tour of Iraq was so shrouded in secrecy that even Iraqi Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari and President Jalal Talabani were kept in the dark. The prime minister said he was surprised when he showed up for what he thought was a meeting with the U.S. ambassador and saw Cheney.

And

U.S. forces guarded Cheney with weapons at the ready while Iraqi soldiers, who had no weapons, held their arms out as if they were carrying imaginary guns.

Today, we also released Mrs. Anthrax and Dr. Germ from prison, after the troops worked hard to capture them. Any bets on how long it takes them to find a position back in the halls of Iraqi power? I'm betting faster than we'd like, unless something happens.

Fun stuff, no? Sorry, DT, but I can't see this turning out any other way then bad. I'd ask for a Christmas miracle, but apparently there's a War On Christmas going on and I'm one of those godless liberal devils out there telling people Happy Holidays, so I don't think Jesus will grant me one.

Quote:

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I can't help but feel that the creation of a new Al Qaeda breeding ground, the destruction of the Iraqi infastructure, and feuling of anti-American sentiment worldwide, which has allowed socialists to gain power in Spain, Brazil, and now Bolivia, plus of course 2000 American lives and countless Iraqis is a very high price to pay.

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Oh, but most of the R's in this country would disagree with you. I'm not even sure what our objectives are anymore; we removed Saddam, found no weapons, this will be the, what, third historical vote they've had. When do we get to leave? Probable answer - never (at least not if we want it to get worse).

And I'd like to throw out this little gem - every billion dollars spent shooting people and building schools in Iraq that we blew up in the first place is a billion dollars that doesn't get spent in our own schools, where kids are shooting each other and some schools haven't seen a fresh coat of paint in a decade. They cut head start and programs for gifted and disabled kids to pay for this little field trip, so in 10, 15 years when everyone is complaining because the U.S. educational system is in a sorry state, I'd like them to remember stuff like this (and it isn't just GWB's fault either, but this is a topic for another thread).

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He looked bigger when I couldn't see him.

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7%,

I don't think the - what I would call justified - insurgency, is going to present too much of a problem as long as obtaining influence through due democratic process is easier than overthrowing the country by military force. Here I'm talking about groups like Al Sadr and the Mahdi and all those people who have a valid point about US occupation and its potential undue control over a puppet govt. I think Moqtada Al Sadr and co see this, that it is more benificial for Iraq to fight potentially damaging US control in a non-violent manner if possible.

The other point I agree with you on. Al Qaeda, which is represented in Iraq By Al Zarqawi, a Jordanian, and by extension Zawahiri and Egyptian, and Bin Laden a Yemeni-Saudi. These people and their organization contrast markedly with the native insurgency in that, even if their active footsoldiers are Iraqi for the most part, they do not represent Iraqi interests. Any foreign special interests in Iraq, whether coming from the US, Britain and Russia (let's be fair, there's a complete list of folks here who think they have dibs on the oil) or whether it's coming from either an Al Qaeda or from an Iran backed group, ultimate does not have a place in the due democratic process of Iraq. For this reason they will continue to be a problem, which must be dealt with.

As far as Cheney being hated in Iraq and fearing for his life and generally feeling the need to act in a totally paranoid fashion, this is nothing new. He acts that way in the United States too. He came to the college where my sister teaches, and they had security teams sweep for bombs and try to ban potentially upstreporous liberal students from showing. A recent poll showed that Cheney's job approval rating is down around 25%, and for a long time has been staying a solid 10 points under Bush's. He's not a popular guy. They hate us in Iraq right now, I don't doubt that, I would hate us too if I were them. They're also going to need us if they don't want to get invaded and slaughtered by someone else.

I think our present agenda in Iraq is this:

The neocons in PNAC came up with a plan, and then they got into the whitehouse and they put that plan into action and it sucked. It was an utter disaster. Now they have a situation far different from the rosepedal parade they envisioned, and they're left with a mess, and a need to answer, what now? and they're response is "uhhh i dunno?"

The problem with these think tank globalist ideologues is that they do all their work through advanced planning. They spend years working out all the details. Then, they put their plan into action, and when it doesn't work, they don't know what to do. By their model, they'd have to go back to the drawing board and think about it for a few more years, but they don't have time.

You're not going to get a defense of GWB out of me, I guess that goes without saying. But we have inherited a debt, just like the deficit, because of bad policy, and now we have to deal with that. Iraq is an obligation whether we like it or not.

Consider this. If you know a guy who is a little over the edge, some nutcase with a huge weapons cache under ground, and you go over to his house, raid his fridge, set fire to his house and steal his car, then you yell at him until he promises to track you down and kill you. Then you turn around and run back to your house. What do you expect to happen?

The Bush plan seems to be to continually sock the guy in the jaw in hopes that he's like you more. But clearly there needs to be a plan here, or the result will be that he'll show up at your house with a howitzer.

Iraq is a guy who is predisposed towards violence, has been at war his entire life, and has a cache of oil under the ground capable of buying any weapons he wants. All he needs is the leadership of a true lunatic like Al Qaeda to go berzerk and start killing everyone in town.

What he needs in a new house, some really level-headed leadership from his actual friends, and a seat at your dinner table to try to understand that you were just trying t

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Post-election in Iraq:

http://news.independent.co.uk/world/middle_east/article334476.ece

From the article:

Quote:

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Iraq is disintegrating. The first results from the parliamentary election last week show the country is dividing between Shia, Sunni and Kurdish regions.

Religious fundamentalists now have the upper hand. The secular and nationalist candidate backed by the US and Britain was humiliatingly defeated.

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He looked bigger when I couldn't see him.

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I was annoyed with this (your comment about Cheney and security). I was present when the Vice-President visited us at a lunch after he toured the 1st Iraqi Mechanized Brigade. Except for the security detatchment NONE of us were allowed to carry weapons. Not the Iraqis, not the US Soldiers, not any of the other CFs.

So, your story is true in part, but you are taking only what you want to hear from it.

In addition, when the President visited us at Fort Polk, LA prior to us coming to Iraq we were once again not allowed to carry ANY weapons. We went through a metal detector before being allowed into the AIRFIELD.

There is security...and then there is being foolish about security. I'd rather the President safe than not. Same with the VP.



dutch
Advisor, Iraqi Army
www.maciraq.blogspot.com

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Then we are back to the tripartite solution to Iraq. Rather than losing the whole of Iraq to Iran-oriented Islamic fundamentalists, we should be able to salvage a Kurdistan. With aid, time, patience, AND TROOP W/DRAWAL we might actually be able salvage the Sunni center. The best we can do about Iran and southern Iraq is to keep our hands off. Our support is enough to taint pro-democracy groups.

EDITED TO ADD: Look at this from the Sunni and Kurdish standpoint. They face a national army which will probably be inimical to their interests. This national army will be supported and trained by the USA, which will claim that this represents some sort of "victory for democracy". Unless/ until we stop propping up this farcical government, the Shiites will have no reason to actually negotiate with other interest groups in Iraq. Civil war ensues.

Dutch- What say you?

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Please don't think they give a shit.

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