Friday (2nd week) estimates--WE'RE IN SERIOUS TROUBLE!

POSTED BY: StakeTheLurk
UPDATED: Monday, October 10, 2005 15:14
VIEWED: 34383
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ANTHONYT

Saturday, October 8, 2005 11:55 PM

Let's pretend that the pre-screenings don't count.

Let's pretend that there were 200 pre-screenings.

Let's pretend that there were 400 people at each pre-screening.

Let's pretend a ticket to a movie costs 10 dollars US.

Let's pretend that all of these inflated values are true.

That's 800,000 bucks. That's less than 1/50th of what the movie needs to get a sequel.

So, no, fret not that the pre-screenings are hurting our box-office numbers. The fans were always a small percentage of the people who needed to see this movie for it to be successful.

--Anthony

"Liberty must not be purchased at the cost of Humanity." --Captain Robert Henner

CARDIE

Sunday, October 9, 2005 12:17 AM

Sometimes something is great but doesn't have wide appeal to the typical audiences that go to the movies. There are movie fans who scorn television and would probably stay away from a movie based on a television show. There are people who don't like the Western elements, even if they are toned way down in the film.

We have always wanted to blame someone for the fact that Firefly/Serenity isn't something that has mass appeal. That's why we love it, because it's unique.

I'm just grateful we got the film, and that it gave a kind of closure to the series.

Variety's formula for predicting the overall domestic gross of a film is to double the grosses for the first ten days. That's looking like about $32 million if this weekend's trend continues.

Cardie

SNEAKER98

Sunday, October 9, 2005 12:28 AM

Girlfriend and I are going to see it tonight.

It aint much, but it's a bit of help.

"I do the job... and then I get paid. Go run your little world."
-Malcolm Reynolds

SADLITTLEKING

Sunday, October 9, 2005 12:51 AM

I agree with you, Cardie. Unfortunately, Firefly/Serenity just doesn't have the mass appeal to pull in the big box office numbers. It's not a well-known franchise and there's really no huge celebrity to draw people in. Serenity is a fine movie with fine actors who get the job done. It all comes together well, but it's just not the rollercoaster ride movie-goers generally flock to.

I'm grateful to Universal for giving us Serenity and doing a good job at marketing it. I saw the TV spot for it plenty of times before the movie released and I'm seeing the new TV spot saying "Ebert & Roeper give Serenity two thumbs up." plenty of times. But sometimes that just doesn't help. If people aren't interested or have just decided that they'll wait for the DVD release, then that's how it goes. Nothing anyone can do about that really.

And if this is the only movie we get, I'm fine with it. I just desperately needed to see that boat flyin' again. I think all fans needed it and that's what we got. We helped in getting to this point and no one can take that away from us. Where we go from here, if the DVD doesn't pull in enough to justify a sequel, is anybody's guess. Perhaps doing TV movies every year or so would be a good idea. I think Sci-Fi Channel could be open to an idea like that. A Firefly TV movie would certainly put every other Sci-Fi Channel original movie to shame.

But even if it ends here, man was it a hell of a ride while it lasted. Thank you, Joss, and thank you, Universal.

TENTHCREWMEMBER

Sunday, October 9, 2005 1:23 AM

It takes more than one kick to my groin to get me riled (and no, I am not explaining that reference ). Today was that second kick, and I am still reeling, trying to figure out how it is I ended up standing behind the jackass when it kicked. Gorram mules...

Mass appeal. Hrm...and in 1977 everyone KNEW what Star Wars was, right? It had mass appeal going into it, right? George Lucas was a household name, because of all those great TV shows he made, such as X-wing: the Series, right? (Yes, I made that last part up, so put away the torches, would-be-flamers)

WRONG!

No one had even heard of Star Wars. And it ran FOREVER that year because there was nothing else, except JAWS to go see.

Here is some numbers for all the nay-sayers to consider:

Star Wars IV (1977) - opening weeking $1.5 mil
http://www.filmsite.org/starw.html

$1.5 mil adjusted from 1977 to 2005 dollars - $4.87 mil
http://www.westegg.com/inflation/

Firefly (2005) - opening weekend $10.1 mil
$10.1 mil adjusted from 2005 to 1977 dollars - $3.1 mil

So in a nut shell, ticket for ticket (adjusting), Serenity has, with a fall opening, done TWICE the box office take Star Wars did with an early summer opening.

Never thought I'd say this about (apparently) Browncoats, but some of you really need perspective. I'm not saying Serenity will be bigger than Star Wars (truly I hope not, because Star Wars sucks now *THANKS ALOT LUCAS THE HUTT!*) and I'm not saying it will gross enough to have a sequel (but I'd like to have faith it will). What I am saying is that the movie IS NOT and WILL NOT be a flop. Waterworld...that was a flop. Perspective, people, perspective.

We've gotten more than we ever should have, and some of you...some of you have gotten more than you obviously deserve.

Thank you, Joss, for a movie worth watching.
Thank you, Universal, for letting him make that movie.

"You really believe that?"- the Operative
"I do."- Malcolm Reynolds

With damaged calm,
TCM

CHRONICTHEHEDGEHOG

Sunday, October 9, 2005 2:04 AM

Actually, Waterworld made nearly $100 million profit at the box office. Not what I'd call a flop...

GREENEO

Sunday, October 9, 2005 2:26 AM

I would love to do my part and round up a bunch of people to see it again this weekend but I just can't handle that kind of depression. Saw it twice on opening weekend and was bummed out of my mind for the rest of the week. Wonder if the melancholy of the film has anything to do with the numbers.

MARTING

Sunday, October 9, 2005 2:34 AM

It's 2005, times changed a lot since 1977.. not really objective to compare.

What bugs me the most is all these movies entering theaters this week. It's like the busiest week in months... so how is postponing the movie from april 22 to sept 30 a good thing?

Again, april 22 release would have hardly had any competition.

Ok, it is true that when universal set the date to sept 30 that at that time only a few movies were planned for this week, and that others got added later.. but its just saddening that this release date turned out as a really bad one.

One thing nobody can do a thing about is that the box office is in a slump this year, and a lot of good movies have had poor results (and the bad good.. says enough about the general audience i guess)

With current results it seems the best we can hope for is that in total it will make 40 million domestic, 20 international and 40+ on DVD.. that would be enough to warrant a sequal

DANIELWSC

Sunday, October 9, 2005 2:48 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by chronicthehedgehog:
Actually, Waterworld made nearly $100 million profit at the box office. Not what I'd call a flop...

Water world is an interesting example. It tanked in the US ($88M) but did boffo business worldwide ($255M). We can hope...

KELSO

Sunday, October 9, 2005 2:50 AM

Realistically, we are probably looking at $25m-$30m domestically and $15m-$20m overseas. Which would put the worldwide gross at $40m-$50m. Hell, even that's pretty optimistic.

I feel confident that Serenity will make back it's production budget (worldwide), but barely. We had better be prepared to buy DVDs in bulk.

EDIT: Just want to add that I would love to be proven wrong!

-------
Well, here I am.

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