Friday (2nd week) estimates--WE'RE IN SERIOUS TROUBLE!
POSTED BY: StakeTheLurk
UPDATED: Monday, October 10, 2005 15:14
VIEWED: 34383
PAGE 3 of 8
Quote:
Originally posted by 3HeadedMonkey:Quote:
Originally posted by MartinG:
I have to comment at Universal for this. This is a marketing disaster. Way to ruin a film!
ugh. first Firefly gets cancelled and everyone blames Fox and tells them to go f*** themselves. This was understandable i guess, but universal was kind enough to give joss whedon full reins on a movie and now since the movie isnt doing well in the BO, you guys are blaming Universal now??? omg....
sometimes movies just dont do well in the BO. no reason to go blaming universal for it. they already did alot for us already.
I gotta agree with you too, I don't think people should be blaming Universal so much. This film shouldn't exist! Can't people see that? We're very very lucky that it does, and more than lucky than to have seen it become a #2 movie rather than the straight to DVD release that looked likely a year or so back.
Taking into account the low budget as well, Serenity is a succesful movie. And people are saying it flopped! I wanted a huger success as much as the next person, but we shouldn't be disappointed that the film couldn't make the last few steps of a very long journey.
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Quote:
Originally posted by AnthonyT:
I agree. Blaming Universal is just a grasp by an angry, defeated person, trying to find someone to blame.
Universal bankrolled this movie against all logic. Universal let Joss do what he wanted. Universal gave us pre-screenings. Universal bought so much advertising I saw the trailer on TV at least a dozen times. I've seen it on the web even more.
Don't kick Universal. This little 40 million dollar movie based on a failed TV show has gotten much more attention than logic would allow.
--Anthony
"Liberty must not be purchased at the cost of Humanity." --Captain Robert Henner
Let me point out clearly that I'm greatful that Universal made this movie possible, however im commenting their marketing capabilities. I have seen absolutely NO marketing at all in the week before release.. it's like the whole movie didn't exist. That, while i got absolutely loaded with adverts for A History Of Violence.
Everything Universal did sounded very promising up till the actual week of release.. then it went silent.. why? i havent got a clue..
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I hate to say it, but know what? I don't care any more. Reason is cause I'm not scared of not getting another movie or season of Firefly. Hell if we just get a book or more comics that'll be fine for me.
"I'm a leaf in the wind. Watch as I soa-" 
Big Damn Fansite - Where the Browncoats gather.
http://www.freewebs.com/bigdamnfansite
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To quote Douglas Adams, DONT'T PANIC!
Let's not put down Universal. It's always easy to be a Monday morning quarterback.
So we did just 1.6 million on Friday night. That's one night. Last weekend we did 10.1 million alltogether for three nights.
Let's assume we do no better on Saturday or Sunday. (I think it'll pick up a bit, what with the matinees, but lets be pessimistic.) 1.6 million times three equals 4.8 million, or nearly half what we took in last week. A 50% drop in the second week of release isn't unusual.
Serenity reportedly has to do $50 million domestic to guarantee a sequel. The total gross so far is $14,300,000, as of Friday. Add in Saturday and Sunday at $1.6 million each (total of $3.2 million) and we have $17,500,000. That's more than a third of the way there after just two weekends.
Let's not forget that Serenity had a very modest budget (only $40 million); it doesn't have to be a runaway hit for Universal to see it as a viable property.
And let's remember that the $50 Mil domestic/$80 mil worldwide figure that's been bandied around so much is what is necessary to guarantee a sequel. Nothing says Universal can't decide to pick it up even if it doesn't soar theatrically. I'm optomistic that home video sales will be through the roof.
And in the meantime, we've got to hold this gorram valley! I've seen the movie four times so far, and I'm not through yet.
"She's tore up plenty. But she'll fly true." -- Zoë Washburn
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Quote:
Originally posted by MartinG:
I have seen absolutely NO marketing at all in the week before release.. it's like the whole movie didn't exist.
Everything Universal did sounded very promising up till the actual week of release.. then it went silent.. why? i havent got a clue..
I don't know what channels you've been warching, but I've seen plenty of Serenity spots. Hear ads on the radio too, and even seen a billboard or two.
And the most recent ads stress the great reviews. It's not Universal's fault if the public has poor taste.
"She's tore up plenty. But she'll fly true." -- Zoë Washburn
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I'm over in the UK, so I guess I'm not part of the key audience that Universal will be watching, but nonetheless I have been to see Serenity EIGHT times since it came out over here a couple of days ago (including a marathon five times in one day!), and I have next week off from work, so I plan on watching it plenty more times yet.
By all means do whatever it takes to convince other people to go an see it, but it's important to keep seeing it yourself too. The weekend seems to be the key point which is being watched, so make sure you go to see it at least once every weekend or more if you can manage it.
The-numbers.com talks about 'Fanboy Effect' causing a films opening weekend to be artificially high - that only happens if the fans go to see it when it opens and then don't go again. More casual fans will do this, so it's up to each and every 'hardcore' fan to make up the numbers.
Chris
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I think part of the blame does rest with Joss for naming the damn thing "Serenity" in the first place; the movie itself is fantastic and if people actually went to see it I'm confident that it'd generate more of a buzz and non-fans would really enjoy it. And we should all be endlessly grateful to Universal for greenlighting it in the first place, even if the marketing could've pointed a little more at the general audience a little less at the fans.
But the biggest issue is that people aren't going to see the name "Serenity" and think big, epic sci-fi action movie. They won't know what it is, and subconsciously they're going to think the movie is as soft and elegant as the word. They might think it's some sappy low-budget romance movie, or a documentary on a stripper-come-pop star. Yes, it fits the film perfectly in a literary sense, but this isn't a literary novel, it's (supposed to be) something of a sci-fi blockbuster.
Just call it "Firefly"; or call it "The Signal". Or even "Terrifying Cannibals from Outer Space!", for crying out loud. None of those are the best titles, either, but they're better than "Serenity". Yes, even the last one. Remember, "Sky Captain and the World of Tomorrow" made more money than we did on its opening weekend.
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I know it's a totally different kind of movie, but as an example that not all is lost...the original Austin Powers movie debuted #2 to Breakdown, an okay but forgettable thriller film (much like one recently released starring Jodie Foster), and only made a modest amount of money (sure, it wasn't budgeted as high as Serenity, but it didn't totally wow people at the box office). It was decided to go ahead and do a sequel which went on to be highly successful, pulling in over $300,000,000 when all was said and done.
I know there are some different circumstances, but it's certainly not unprecedented to start out a film franchise with a non-blockbuster and become highly successful with a sequel if the studio believes in it and gives it the chance it needs. I think the international B.O. and DVD sales will give it the lift it needs to earn a second chance, at the very least for a direct-to-video sequel. Not the ideal situation, but better than no sequel at all...
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Now, I'm assuming that the box office figures that count are the ones since the movie officially opened in theaters...
If this is indeed the case, then I can't help but think that as cool as it was to see advance screenings of the BDM, the fact that there were so darned many of them that most of the 'hardcore' fans and Browncoats amongsdt us had alrready seen it by the time it was rolled out to cinemas - one group of guys I spoke to about it in my store in Liverpool said they'd already seen it 3 times at advance screenings! BEFORE IT WAS EVEN OFFICIALLY RELEASED TO THEATERS!!
Multiply the number of screenings around the globe by the numer of tickets sold and by the ticket price andf I'm sure that that'd come to quite a tidy sum in itself...
I'm also having trouble beieving that people are boycotting the movie due to certain events - what is up with that!?!
Anyhoo, all of those advance showings must've surely put a big dent in the box office takings figures...
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Quote:While the utility of the screenings as a marketing device may be debatable, Chris Buchanan has said that the money from the screening would be included in the opening box office. I think it shouldn't amout to more than $40,000, though--a blip in the statistics when it comes to box office.
If this is indeed the case, then I can't help but think that as cool as it was to see advance screenings of the BDM, the fact that there were so darned many of them that most of the 'hardcore' fans and Browncoats amongsdt us had alrready seen it by the time it was rolled out to cinemas.
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