Russia Invades Ukraine. Again
POSTED BY: captaincrunch
UPDATED: Sunday, September 6, 2026 21:09
VIEWED: 562266
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Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:Quote:
Originally posted by THG:Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:Quote:
Originally posted by THG:
EV's are looking better, now that Trump has the cost of gas going through the roof.
Until rates for electricity go up.
AFA Russian logistics across "the front" collapsing...
• Crimea is not "the front". Ukies have made life more difficult for the civilian population in Crimea, but that hasn't stopped Russia from moving forward across the entire front, including in the south.
• If drone attacks on roads and bridges were enough to collapse an army, Kiev would have collapsed two years ago. Ukraine's "drone wars" are irritating but not strategic.
It does look as if Ukraine is planning some sort of media incursion, sending in a relatively small contingent as deep as possible to video themselves planting flags. They'll be wiped out, just like the Kursk offensive, the 2023 southern offensive, and the ridiculous plays for Rabotyn and Krynky were wiped out
Yes, electric costs could be a problem. However, the American voter can insist that these large data centers have to provide their own power. Too late to help us but building them in the low temperature of space may be the best way forward. Cooling the chips is a lot of the problem. And they are having some success dealing with that.
As for the rest of your post regarding Ukraine; wrong. You, are heading for a major clash with reality.
The way I understand it, THGR, is that Russian military staff and policy planners view the SMO as a series of related probabilistic differential equations. Everything happens at a rate, each with its error band:
Russia marches forward at a certain rate.
Russian loses military and economic capability at a certain rate.
Ukraine loses at a certain rate.
EU economies decline at a certain rate.
USA weapons stockpiles are used up at a certain rate, and produced at a (lower) rate.
Popular opinion changes at a certain rate.
Some rates are linear, some are higher order, occasionally they experience a step change, like the introduction of new technology like drones or the change of a particular government or the opening of a new front.
I don't have information needed to make accurate predictions. But this is war, and losses are inevitable on both sides. The question is, who is losing more faster? AFAIK it's Ukraine and the EU.
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"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."- Henry Kissinger
Are you for real?
T
Russian Forces PANIC Amid Being Cut off From Crimea; Putin’s Frontline COLLAPSE Begins
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Quote:New footage shows Russian defense plant in Cheboksary after Ukraine's strike
Originally posted by second:
Ukrainian Flamingo missiles strike military plant in large-scale attack on Russia, Zelensky confirms
By Volodymyr Ivanyshyn, Tania Myronyshenaune | June 10, 2026 1:45 pm
Russian defenses failed to stop the Ukrainian attack
By Daryna Vialko | Wed, June 10, 2026 - 21:58
https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/new-footage-shows-russian-defense-plan
t-in-1781116909.html
The missiles traveled more than 1,500 kilometers before striking workshops producing navigation and automation systems for the Russian military.
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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Vladimir Solovyov complains about his shrinking stature and elections in Armenia
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A Twist in Ukraine’s Drone Campaign Is ‘Really Hurting the Russians’
Midrange attacks, using upgraded drones that Ukraine produces in huge numbers, are causing fuel shortages and complicating troop rotations.
By Marc Santora Reporting from Dnipro, Kyiv and eastern Ukraine
June 10, 2026
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/10/world/europe/ukraine-midrange-logis
tics-strikes.html
First Ukraine assembled an arsenal of millions of drones that, along with Russia’s own buildup, turned a 25-mile-wide strip along the front line into a killing ground. Then Kyiv expanded its reach deep into the Russian heartland as it targeted oil infrastructure and military factories, making long-range violence in the war a two-way street.
Now, Ukraine is focusing on the middle ground — the critical roads and railways, in some cases more than 100 miles from the front, that feed Russian troops and matériel into battle. Kyiv is calling the effort a “logistics lockdown,” and it is systematically reshaping the battlefield, at least until Russian forces find a way to adapt.
Ukraine is wreaking havoc on unarmored trucks and trains in the battlefield’s rear, using drones with upgraded engines and batteries, integrated Starlink communication systems and new artificial-intelligence capabilities. The ramped-up attacks are causing fuel shortages, complicating troop rotations and reducing Russian military activity on the front.
May was the first month since 2023 in which Russia suffered a net loss of territory, according to the Ukrainian research group DeepState. On Monday, Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky, the top Ukrainian military commander, said Ukraine had reclaimed in May nearly 40 square miles more than it lost.
The attacks on Russian logistics are part of a synchronized, multilayered campaign that covers the close-in “kill zone,” the midrange resupply zone in Russian-occupied parts of Ukraine, and the territory far inside Russia where Ukraine has hit sites producing crucial weapon technology.
“That’s what’s new, and that’s what is really hurting the Russians,” said Mick Ryan, a retired Australian general who is a fellow at the Lowy Institute, a research group in Sydney.
The coordinated campaign has made it hard for Moscow to generate momentum, with its spring and summer offensives so far failing to achieve notable results.
Ukraine produces so many drones from its own factories that it can now launch more than 5,000 mid- and deep-range strikes every month, according to Ukrainian officials. Late last week, Ukraine’s defense minister, Mykhailo Fedorov, said that Ukrainian forces last month carried out twice as many strikes at least 30 miles from the front line as they did in April.
The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington think tank, found in a recent assessment that such strikes were helping to push the conflict into a new phase.
As the forces operate systems “capable of disrupting Russian forces throughout their operational depth,” according to researchers at the think tank, Ukraine has a “unique and time-constrained opportunity” to mount the sort of mechanized offensives that have become very difficult because of the threat of drones.
Jack Watling, a senior fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, a research group in London, wrote in Foreign Affairs that the war had reached a turning point, arguing that as Russia’s battlefield performance worsened, Ukraine had a chance to push Moscow toward a cease-fire.
In a field in Ukraine late last month, the commander of the Second Battalion of the First Separate Unmanned Aerial Systems Center said it was critical to seize the moment because the Ukrainian military’s advantage might not last.
As long as it does, “the main idea is for Russia to truly feel war, to know that distance does not provide safety,” said the commander, who under Ukrainian military protocol gave only his call sign, Whale.
As he spoke, soldiers scrawled messages of retribution on the wings of a dozen drones, each packed with thermobaric explosives.
The next day, Ukraine’s General Sta
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THGR, "The Enforcer“?
Really?
Quote:
The ramped-up attacks are causing fuel shortages, complicating troop rotations and reducing Russian military activity on the front.
Not that anyone can notice. In fact Russians seem to be going faster in the past couple of weeks.
-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."- Henry Kissinger
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Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
THGR, "The Enforcer“?
Really?Quote:
The ramped-up attacks are causing fuel shortages, complicating troop rotations and reducing Russian military activity on the front.
Not that anyone can notice. In fact Russians seem to be going faster in the past couple of weeks.
-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."- Henry Kissinger
Agreed, backwards...
T
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Quote:In fact, Russia must be losing if it passes a law that confiscates the property of Russians who say that Russia is losing:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
In fact Russians seem to be going faster in the past couple of weeks.
Russians abroad who criticize Kremlin risk losing their homes under Putin's new law
What could Russians do that would cost them their homes and savings?
By Kateryna Shkarlat | Wed, June 10, 2026 - 21:33
https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/new-footage-shows-russian-defense-plan
t-in-1781116909.html
Criticism of the war, calls for sanctions, or other actions that the Kremlin considers a threat to its interests could cost Russians their apartments, bank accounts, and other property, according to The Moscow Times. https://ru.themoscowtimes.com/2026/06/10/putin-podpisal-zakon-ob-arest
e-imuschestva-relokantov-za-kritiku-rezhima-a197870
Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a law allowing the seizure of property belonging to Russian citizens living abroad for so-called administrative offenses against Russia’s interests.
The document is set to come into force on September 1, 2026.
Under the law, grounds for property seizure may include "discrediting" the Russian army, calling for sanctions against Russia, distributing "extremist materials," "promoting Nazi symbols," as well as failing to pay fines imposed for such actions.
At the same time, the seizure may apply not only to real estate but also to funds held in bank accounts. The value of the property subject to restrictions is not limited by the amount of the fine.
The law also stipulates that if a citizen residing abroad cannot be notified about the initiation of proceedings, the court must appoint a defense lawyer. If the case is later dismissed, the lawyer’s fees will be reimbursed from the federal budget.
According to the explanatory note accompanying the document, the law is aimed at Russians who, after leaving the country, engage in activities allegedly contrary to Russia’s interests. The authors of the initiative argue that such measures will help suppress calls to violate Russia’s territorial integrity and constitutional order.
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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Putin and Trump are both trapped in losing battles against reality
The Ukraine and Iran wars are very different, but a common authoritarian delusion unites the men who started them
By Rafael Behr | Wed 10 Jun 2026
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/jun/10/putin-trump-ukra
ine-iran-wars-authoritarian
A strongman president, self-styled redeemer of national glory, is trapped in a conflict he can’t win but doesn’t know how to end without looking like a loser. A cult of infallibility prevents the leader admitting a strategic blunder even to himself. It could be Donald Trump or Vladimir Putin; Iran or Ukraine.
The conflicts and the regimes involved are also dissimilar in important ways. Russia’s campaign to eradicate a neighbouring democracy is nastier in conception and bloodier in execution than the bungled US effort to dislodge a dictatorship in Tehran. It has also gone on much longer. The first world war was shorter than a “special military operation” that was supposed to capture Kyiv within weeks. The Soviet Red Army repelled Nazi invasion and marched on Berlin in less time than it has taken Putin’s forces to occupy a tranche of eastern Ukraine, and they are not making any significant advances. The war has burned trillions of roubles and sacrificed hundreds of thousands of lives for no discernible dividend in national greatness.
The failure is too big for the Kremlin’s propaganda machinery to hide. Civilians hundreds of miles from the frontline see the plumes of black smoke from the oil refineries struck by long-range Ukrainian drones. They feel the depletion of their wages by inflation. They noticed how last month’s Victory Day parade, the high holy day of Russian militarism, was strangely modest. The traditional convoy of tanks and missiles couldn’t go ahead when the skies above Red Square were vulnerable to Ukrainian aerial mischief.
Official opinion polls have shown a drop in support for Putin, albeit from impossible heights to improbable ones. Since the data-collecting agencies are under state control, the blip is best interpreted as a symptom of factional jostling for influence within the regime. Pragmatists in the civilian administration might have flashed a glimpse of presidential vulnerability as a warning to hardliners in the security apparatus that their approach isn’t working. Polls tracked back towards the adulatory norm after a pause for “methodological” revision.
Any internal Russian lobby for ending the war runs into the problem that Putin sees the conflict as an existential struggle to avenge national honour against the perfidious west. He casts himself as the incarnation of national destiny, reaffirming Russian civilisational supremacy over borderlands to which it is historically entitled. Such a man doesn’t easily accept the prospect of dealing with Volodymyr Zelenskyy on equal terms as legitimate president of an independent country.
Trump’s worldview is less cluttered with antique mythology, more pumped with celebrity narcissism, but the effect is the same. He shares Putin’s concept of alpha powers whose interests override any sovereignty claims of lesser nations in their neighbourhoods. He was easily persuaded that Ukraine’s cause was hopeless and that Putin held all “the cards” because it would have offended his own sense of majesty to believe that someone in Zelenskyy’s geopolitical class could be a winner.
If the US president had been interested in the reality of Ukraine’s defensive campaign he might have observed the levelling effect of drones, allowing a smaller force to thwart an apparently overwhelming onslaught. He might even have considered the relevance of that asymmetry when judging whether Iran could be bombed into unconditional surrender. He might then have taken advice from people in the state department and CIA who had war-gamed an all-out campaign against the Islamic Republic under previous administrations. They concluded that regime change couldn’t be achieved from the air and that closure of the strait of Hormuz was a viable Iranian countermea
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Europe Plans to Crack Down on Russia—but for Real This Time
Trump and the Iran war gave Russia a boost. Brussels is fed up.
By Keith Johnson, a staff writer at Foreign Policy covering geoeconomics and energy.
June 10, 2026, 12:45 PM
https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/06/10/europe-russia-sanctions-package-t
rump-putin/?tpcc=recirc_latest062921
The European Union has proposed its 21st package of sanctions on Russia, a bid to finally bring the Russian war economy to heel, in a war that has now lasted as long as World War I.
The latest sanctions package is especially important because Moscow has received a shot of relief this spring, thanks to the Iran war and the Trump administration’s easing of sanctions. Russian energy revenues are now at more than two-year highs.
That explains why the European Commission is targeting energy this time, with measures meant to curtail Russian oil earnings; sanction more “shadow fleet” tankers; take aim at ports and refineries that allow Russia to do business even still; and limit the future sale of specialized gas tankers to Moscow. The latest proposed package also sanctions several more Russian banks, seeks to limit trade in items that can aid Russia’s defense industry, and will ban from Europe any Russian who has participated in the “special military operation” in Ukraine, as the Kremlin refers to it.
“Brick by brick, we are collapsing the foundations of Russia’s war economy,” European Union foreign-policy chief Kaja Kallas said Tuesday on X.
The latest EU sanctions are just a proposal and still need to be refined into final form and then passed by unanimous consent among the 27 EU states. The last 20 times, that was challenging because Hungary, previously Russia’s handmaiden inside Europe, sought to water down almost every attempt by Brussels to increase pressure on Moscow or offer relief to Kyiv. But Hungary has come in from the cold, leaving only a handful of possible objectors, such as Slovakia.
The package is timely because Russia is raking in money due to the fallout from the U.S.-Iran war, which drove up oil and natural gas prices. Additionally, the Trump administration has repeatedly offered Russia relief from previously levied sanctions to keep oil prices from exploding. The result has been a windfall for Moscow.
“The conflict in the Middle East and disruptions to global energy supply chains have eased some pressure on Russia,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in a statement. “So, the objective of our package could not be clearer. We want to maintain the full intensity of our sanctions.”
In May, Russia’s energy export revenues climbed another 2 percent over the already-high levels of April to 726 million euros per day, according to the Finland-based Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), which tracks Russian energy earnings during the war. Crude oil loadings at the key Baltic Sea port of Ust-Luga, which Ukraine hammered in March and April with drone strikes, were up almost 50 percent in May.
“Russia is sailing in terms of earnings from oil and natural gas,” said Isaac Levi, the head of Russia research at CREA.
“The sanctions were having a big impact before February of this year,” he said, but then the gulf between the price of discounted Russian crude oil and global benchmarks closed, as countries everywhere scrambled to replace missing barrels of oil due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. waivers in particular cleared up a backlog of stranded Russian tankers and allowed Russia to ramp up production at its oilfields.
“The Trump administration has basically dealt [Russian President Vladimir] Putin a blank check,” Levi said.
That sudden premium for Russian oil is one reason that one of the proposed EU measures—a tweak to the system it uses to try to cap the price at which Russia can sell its oil—is unlikely to do much, according to Levi. “The oil price cap is basically dead in the water,” he
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