Russia Invades Ukraine. Again
POSTED BY: captaincrunch
UPDATED: Sunday, September 6, 2026 21:09
VIEWED: 562266
PAGE 1043 of 1104
EU opens first accession talks cluster for Ukraine and Moldova after years of delays and vetoes, marking the formal start of negotiations on core political and legal standards.
By Benjamin Murdoch | June 12, 2026
https://euromaidanpress.com/2026/06/12/eu-opens-accession-talks-cluste
r-for-ukraine-and-moldova/
The breakthrough comes after Hungary’s prolonged veto over the start of accession negotiations with Ukraine was lifted.
Budapest had previously blocked progress over disputes, including minority rights in Ukraine’s Zakarpattia Oblast, which borders Hungary and contains a number of ethnic Hungarians, stalling the launch of negotiation clusters despite Ukraine receiving candidate status in 2022.
The recent shift followed a change in Hungary’s political leadership and an agreement on minority rights, removing a key obstacle to advancing the accession framework.
Croatia is the last country to join the European Union, officially becoming a member on July 1, 2013.
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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Hiking the road inside the 'kill zone' in Ukraine
By Francis Farrell, Olena Zashko
Jun 13, 2026
We followed Ukraine’s 24th Mechanized Brigade on the "road of life" between the front-line cities of Druzhkivka and Kostiantynivka.
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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Can Ukraine Isolate Crimea?
Phillips P. OBrien
Jun 14, 2026
https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/i/201895015/can-ukraine-isolate-c
rimea
Ukraine now has the mass and technical capabilities to wage a methodical and practically daily campaign against Russian logistics linking Crimea to the mainland to the north. If maintained, that will have major implications for the Russian army in Ukraine and the occupying forces in Crimea. For Russian forces at the front, that means they will have no chance of getting supplies sent through Crimea up to them. For Crimea, that means nothing will get in from the north. And as shipping and air supply is practically impossible, that means vital commodities such as fuel and even water (Crimea is rather dry) can only come from the Kerch side.
That is a big problem for the Russians, too. Damage to the Kerch bridge over the last few years means the Russians have been severely restricting the amount of fuel and other hazardous cargo they are willing to send over that bridge (they do not want the Ukrainians to turn fuel trucks and trains into bombs—as they did earlier in the war. And this spring, Ukraine has attacked the ferries that are operating on the Kerch side as well—reportedly doing great damage.
So if the Northern route remains closed and Russia cannot find a way to significantly increase traffic from the Kerch end, Crimea is, for all intents and purposes, cut off. That turns the peninsula from a strategic asset to a major strategic and political headache. The Russians will have to move heaven and earth to try to get supplies into their military and population there.
Maps and more at https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/i/201895015/can-ukraine-isolate-c
rimea
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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O'Brian is an idiot.
Supplies aren't going from Crimea northward. They're going in reverse, southward INTO Crimea. And isolating Crimea isn't going to do anything except make yfe population miserable.
There is some talk that Kiev is going to try a landing on the Kinburn Spit, but the logistics of attacking the Kinburn Spit in Crimea suck even worse that Crimea launching an attack in the other direction. If Kiev tries that it'll be a short media victory (Ukraine flags on the spit) followed by a lot of dead Ukrainian soldiers.
*****
I think it's more interesting to contemplate what happens after Russia achieves a military victory i.e. occupation of Dontesk, Lugansk, Kherson, Zaparozhiy.
Since the idea was to ensure Russia's western border, without follow-on agreements (with who?) that Ukraine is demilitarized and neutral, Russia has merely pushed its border problem westward. And unlike Iran, which has a natural geographic hold on a world chokepoint and therefore lots and lots of leverage to enforce the terms of many agreement, Russia doesn't have a chokepoint on Ukraine or the west, unless it takes Odessa.
-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."- Henry Kissinger
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O'Brian is an idiot.
Supplies aren't going from Crimea northward. They're going in reverse, southward INTO Crimea. And isolating Crimea isn't going to do anything except make yfe population miserable.
There is some talk that Kiev is going to try a landing on the Kinburn Spit, but the logistics of attacking the Kinburn Spit in Crimea suck even worse that Crimea launching an attack in the other direction. If Kiev tries that it'll be a short media victory (Ukraine flags on the spit) followed by a lot of dead Ukrainian soldiers.
*****
I think it's more interesting to contemplate what happens after Russia achieves a military victory i.e. occupation of Dontesk, Lugansk, Kherson, Zaparozhiy.
Since the idea was to ensure Russia's western border, without follow-on agreements (with who?) that Ukraine is demilitarized and neutral, Russia has merely pushed its border problem westward. And unlike Iran, which has a natural geographic hold on a world chokepoint and therefore lots and lots of leverage to enforce the terms of many agreement, Russia doesn't have a chokepoint on Ukraine or the west, unless it takes Odessa.
-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."- Henry Kissinger
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
O'Brian is an idiot.
Supplies aren't going from Crimea northward. They're going in reverse, southward INTO Crimea. And isolating Crimea isn't going to do anything except make yfe population miserable.
There is some talk that Kiev is going to try a landing on the Kinburn Spit, but the logistics of attacking the Kinburn Spit in Crimea suck even worse that Crimea launching an attack in the other direction. If Kiev tries that it'll be a short media victory (Ukraine flags on the spit) followed by a lot of dead Ukrainian soldiers.
*****
I think it's more interesting to contemplate what happens after Russia achieves a military victory i.e. occupation of Dontesk, Lugansk, Kherson, Zaparozhiy.
Since the idea was to ensure Russia's western border, without follow-on agreements (with who?) that Ukraine is demilitarized and neutral, Russia has merely pushed its border problem westward. And unlike Iran, which has a natural geographic hold on a world chokepoint and therefore lots and lots of leverage to enforce the terms of any agreement, Russia doesn't have a chokepoint on Ukraine or the west, unless it takes Odessa.
-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."- Henry Kissinger
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1. Failure to “Know the Enemy and Know Yourself”
Sun Tzu’s most famous maxim states: “If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles.”
The Kremlin’s strategy suffered from what The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) describes as a profound failure of intelligence.
Based on flawed reports from the FSB’s 5th Service, Russian leadership believed the Ukrainian state would collapse instantly.
According to investigative reports by The Washington Post, Russia “knew” a phantom version of Ukraine, failing to account for the military modernization undertaken by Kyiv since 2014.
Simultaneously, Russia overestimated its own “self”—believing its military was a peer to NATO when, in reality, it lacked the logistical depth for a multi-front invasion.
https://www.dagens.com/war/four-points-from-the-art-of-war-that-explai
ns-why-putins-war-in-ukraine-is-such-a-disaster
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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2. Disregarding the “Moral Law”
The first of Sun Tzu’s Five Constant Factors is the Moral Law, which ensures the people are in accord with their ruler. For Ukraine, this was their greatest asset.
Business Insider reported in 2024 that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was actually offered an emergency escape via train, but he never accepted the offer. Zelenskyy’s refusal to flee unified the populace in a “death ground” struggle.
Zelenskyy has also famously been quoted by the Associated Press for saying: “I need ammunition, not a ride”.
Conversely, as documented by human rights monitors and intercepted communications released by Ukrainian intelligence (SBU), many Russian soldiers were unaware they were entering a hot war. When the purpose of a conflict is opaque to those fighting it, morale evaporates.
Sun Tzu warns that a spiritless army cannot win; the Russian “will to fight” has consistently lagged behind the existential motivation of the Ukrainian defenders.
https://www.dagens.com/war/four-points-from-the-art-of-war-that-explai
ns-why-putins-war-in-ukraine-is-such-a-disaster
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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3. The Danger of Prolonged Warfare
Sun Tzu was a fierce critic of long campaigns: “There is no instance of a country having benefited from prolonged warfare.”
Russia’s “Thunder Run” on Kyiv was a gamble on a “swift stroke” victory.
According to analysis from War on the Rocks, when the initial decapitation strike failed at Hostomel Airport, the war shifted into a resource-draining stalemate.
By failing to secure a quick victory, Russia allowed the West time to mobilize. This delay enabled the delivery of high-tech systems like HIMARS, which U.S. Department of Defense briefings later credited with halting Russian momentum.
https://www.dagens.com/war/four-points-from-the-art-of-war-that-explai
ns-why-putins-war-in-ukraine-is-such-a-disaster
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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4. Ignoring “Heaven and Earth” (Terrain and Logistics)
The factors of Heaven (weather) and Earth (terrain) were catastrophically neglected.
Russia launched its invasion during the Rasputitsa (mud season). Satellite imagery from Maxar Technologies famously captured a 40-mile convoy on a paved road, with Reuters reporting on March 1, 2022, that it was unclear if the convoy had stalled completely, but that it was not making much progress – if any.
By ignoring the “Earth”—the restrictive Ukrainian marshes and urban bottlenecks—Russian forces forfeited their numerical advantage. They became entangled in what Sun Tzu called “Difficult Ground,” where the defender holds every advantage.
As noted by military analyst Michael Kofman, this lack of geographical foresight turned Russian armor into sitting ducks for mobile Ukrainian anti-tank teams.
https://www.dagens.com/war/four-points-from-the-art-of-war-that-explai
ns-why-putins-war-in-ukraine-is-such-a-disaster
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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