2025 Wide Release Prediction Game Thread
POSTED BY: 6ixStringJack
UPDATED: Tuesday, April 28, 2026 17:16
VIEWED: 30539
PAGE 31 of 53
Quote:
Snow White is out of the top15
will post an update
Quote:
36+ Million to enter the Top50 Worldwide
413 + Million to enter the Top10 on international Box Office
movie F1 did poor domestically but had a huge overseas percentage
1 Ne Zha 2 China $1,994,564,524
2 Lilo & Stitch $1,019,270,728
3 A Minecraft Movie $954,585,398
4 Jurassic World Rebirth $736,406,546
5 How to Train Your Dragon $609,978,139
6 Mission: Impossible—The Final Reckoning $592,101,824
7 Superman $531,606,392
8 F1: The Movie $528,270,512
9 Tang Tan 1900 China $452,502,745
10 Captain America: Brave New World $413,640,021
11 Thunderbolts* $382,376,746
12 Sinners $365,821,942
13 Final Destination: Bloodlines $285,330,814
14 The Fantastic Four: First Steps $268,917,087
15 Disney’s Snow White $205,679,463
Disney's Snow White knocked out of the top 15 since this was posted,
Final Destination Bloodlines rose up a little, How to Train Your Dragon gained, Demon Slayer Anime Japan Kimetsu no Yaiba The Movie rises, a historic China War Drama Set during the Nanjing Massacre called 'Dead To Rights' and a new very profitable horror movie 'Weapons' from WB
Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Maybe Weapons does better than I thought despite the Conjuring coming out this weekend?
Many expected a growth in horror movies by the studios since they have proven to be very profitable post-Covid but not all studios have been learning this lesson
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Top 7 for Friday,
https://x.com/BORReport/status/1964358709175607402
1. #TheConjuringLastRites - $34.50M
2. #Hamilton - $3.90M
3. #WeaponsMovie - $1.45M
4. #FreakierFriday - $960K
5. #CaughtStealingMovie - $940K
6. #TheRoses - $784K
7. #LightOfTheWorld - $700K
Weapons will break $250M at the worldwide #boxoffice. Budget was just $38M!
https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/33573-weapons-os-thread-100m-
os-2324m-ww/page/2/#comments
not that cheap low budget horrors can take on the big silly video game inspired Minecraft but let's compare anyways
A Minecraft Movie (2025) vs. The Conjuring: Last Rites (2025) vs. Weapons (2025)
https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons-extended/Minecra
ft-Movie-A-(2025)/Conjuring-The-Last-Rites-(2025)/Weapons-(2025)#tab=day_by_day_comparison
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Box Office: 'The Conjuring: Last Rites' Set For $75M Franchise Record Bow
https://deadline.com/2025/09/box-office-conjuring-the-last-rites-12365
08461/
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Quote:
Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Maybe Weapons does better than I thought despite the Conjuring coming out this weekend?
Many expected a growth in horror movies by the studios since they have proven to be very profitable post-Covid but not all studios have been learning this lesson
What? Are you taking lessons for Lying By Omission from MSNBC?
The whole post:
Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Maybe Weapons does better than I thought despite the Conjuring coming out this weekend?
Bruce predicts only a -27% drop for some reason this weekend on Weapons, even with a projected $66.8 Million for Conjuring. I would have thought there would be some serious overlap between the two and Weapons would have been buried under it.
So far, he's not right. It's dropped -44% from Friday to Friday, but looking just at F/F drops rarely paints the weekend picture, so I guess we wait and see.
ETA:
Well... he does mention this at the end of his prediction article...Quote:
With all the returning films coming out of a slight uptick thanks to Labor Day last weekend, we might see some steep drops on the chart when we get the numbers on Saturday and Sunday. The model partially accounts for that, but drops of 40% or more for all the returning films are quite likely, in my opinion.
... which is basically what I said on the 2nd regarding Fantastic 4's smaller than expected Labor Day Weekend drop:Quote:
I fully expect FF4 to end up taking a larger than normal dive next weekend to make up for this temporary bump it got with zero new competition.
ETA2:
And a deeper look at Friday's numbers in general appear to support this theory all around.
Friday to Friday drops:
Weapons: -45%
Freakier Friday: -47%
Caught Stealing: -71%
The Roses: -68%
Fantastic Four: -43%
The Bad Guys 2: -62%
Superman: -62%
The Naked Gun: -70%
F1: The Movie: -55%
Jurassic World Rebirth: -66%
Nobody 2: -81%
Toxic Avengare Unrated: -90%
Honey Don't: -90%
Lilo & Stitch: -93%
Which was in reference to the last paragraph of the previous post:
Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
It will probably make another $5 or $6 Million in the US this weekend. Although, now that I look at the new movies that just came out, The Conjuring is probably going to overlap that audience by quite a bit and there might be a pretty big fall for Weapons this time around, so maybe not.
Oh well. WB should be more than pleased at this result even if it nosedives now. It's done well.
Weapons fell -49% for Weekend 5. Bruce's model said it would only fall -27%.
Weapons made $5,370,000 on weekend 5, which was right in between the $5-$6 Million I predicted it was going to make on Weekend 5.
I was right... again.
Bruce's model was wrong... again.
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"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon
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Pledge to Boycott Israeli Institutions Complicit in Genocide Adds Hundreds Of Signatories, Including Emma Stone, Peter Sarsgaard, Lily Gladstone, and Elliot Page
https://deadline.com/2025/09/film-workers-for-palestine-ava-duvernay-o
livia-colman-1236511823/
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Hamilton not a Lefty movie that was supposed to come out Pre-Covid..its a historical movie
impossible to match 1997 Titanic
Hamilton (2020) vs. Oppenheimer (2023) vs. Gladiator (2000)
https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons-extended/Hamilto
n-(2020)/Oppenheimer-(2023)/Gladiator-(2000)#tab=day_by_day_comparison
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Dwayne Johnson Movie ‘The Smashing Machine’ Looks To Bust Way Into A24 Record Books With $20M Opening – Box Office Forecast
https://deadline.com/2025/09/dwayne-johnson-the-smashing-machine-box-o
ffice-projection-1236529047/
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How the mighty have fallen.
Gotta write a positive spin by calling the lowest weekend opening for a Dwayne Johnson movie an A24 success story.
That dude's career is pretty much over man. Turns out he was kind of a cunt that got too high on his own farts.
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The Democrats are the party of Murder.
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Quote:Who is going to the movies when they can watch the same for free on streaming in October?
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
How the mighty have fallen.
Gotta write a positive spin by calling the lowest weekend opening for a Dwayne Johnson movie an A24 success story.
That dude's career is pretty much over man. Turns out he was kind of a cunt that got too high on his own farts.
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The Democrats are the party of Murder.
https://www.primetimer.com/features/the-smashing-machine-release-date-
cast-and-character-where-to-watch-and-more
Who is going to a fictionalized 2025 version of the 2002 HBO documentary titled The Smashing Machine: The Life and Times of Extreme Fighter Mark Kerr?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Kerr_(fighter)#In_popular_culture
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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Quote:
Originally posted by second:Quote:Who is going to the movies when they can watch the same for free on streaming in October?
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
How the mighty have fallen.
Gotta write a positive spin by calling the lowest weekend opening for a Dwayne Johnson movie an A24 success story.
That dude's career is pretty much over man. Turns out he was kind of a cunt that got too high on his own farts.
--------------------------------------------------
The Democrats are the party of Murder.
https://www.primetimer.com/features/the-smashing-machine-release-date-
cast-and-character-where-to-watch-and-more
Who is going to a fictionalized 2025 version of the 2002 HBO documentary titled The Smashing Machine: The Life and Times of Extreme Fighter Mark Kerr?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Kerr_(fighter)#In_popular_culture
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
Who is going to make the movies when nobody pays to see them?
Every single streaming service on the planet including Netflix has done nothing but lose money every quarter they've been in existence.
If they don't figure out how to get asses back in seats, they'll just stop making anything new for you to pirate.
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The Democrats are the party of Murder.
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