2025 Wide Release Prediction Game Thread
POSTED BY: 6ixStringJack
UPDATED: Tuesday, April 28, 2026 17:16
VIEWED: 30539
PAGE 26 of 53
The FantasticFour: FirstSteps
1st Friday
Superman $56,109,755 Minecraft $57,113,324 Fantastic Four $57,000,000
https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons-extended/Superma
n-(2025)/Minecraft-Movie-A-(2025)/Fantastic-Four-The-First-Steps-(2025)#tab=day_by_day_comparison
However overseas reports and gossip are bad, Trump tariff might have backfired or else people just have Superhero fatigue for international cinema numbers
Strong domestic numbers
‘Fantastic Four: First Steps’ Flying ‘Superman’s Route Toward Great $125M Opening – Box Office
https://deadline.com/2025/07/box-office-fantastic-four-first-steps-123
6468412/
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Fantastic Four First Steps is doing good but more talk of it struggling in Asia
https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/32965-the-fantastic-four-firs
t-steps/page/7/#comments
Jurassic World Rebirth (2025) vs. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (2025) vs. The Batman (2022)
https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons-extended/Jurassi
c-World-Rebirth-(2025)/Fantastic-Four-The-First-Steps-(2025)/Batman-The-(2021)#tab=day_by_day_comparison
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$125 is still not a great opening. During Marvel's heyday, that number would have been the biggest flop for them by far all year. It only looks good when all the other comic book flicks you put out all year were flops and the only comic movie your competition put out all year was a minor success.
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"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon
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Fantastic Four - This Movie Shocked Me
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comicbook super hero movies are back! but is that a good thing?
Fantastic Four, similar numbers to the movies ThorRagnarok, Iron Man 2, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3, Spider-Man Homecoming
https://variety.com/2025/film/box-office/fantastic-four-first-steps-bo
x-office-opening-weekend-1236471441/
2006 vs 2013
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdown/sd1715336708/?ref_=bo_shs_sd
How important is international box office to Hollywood?
https://stephenfollows.com/p/important-international-box-office-hollyw
ood
The first time international box office revenues for Studio movies surpassed domestic was in 1997, mostly due to the strong global performance of just three films: Titanic (70% of the global intake came internationally), Men in Black (57%) and The Lost World (63%). But it wasn't until 2003 when international revenue dominated the domestic market for good
China - $6.5M / $4.5M
Asia/Oceania - $36M / $32.5M
EU - $27.5M / $36.5M
LATAM - $23M / $27M
https://x.com/meJat32/status/1949508984035238059
quote
Asia is a complete disaster for F4. In the good old days, it would have earned over $125M in Asia & China.
In contrast, the EU was bad for Supe with exception of UK.
Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:Quote:
I'll say 750-760,
Domestic '390' plus 360 overseas or maybe international numbers even lower
its certainly not 40-35% USA and 60-65% international
I agree with you here. $750 sounds about right. It's not going to go over $800 unless a summer miracle happens for it and everything else ends up flopping and people are still watching this thing well into next month.
its really starting to drop now, it struggled in Asia, could it go as low as 650? Lower again if numbers keep falling like a rock?
'Superman' makes $24.9M in 3rd weekend, crossed 500 Million on international numbers...possibly a lower 675 finish...I will stay on my original prediction 750
so its almost 300 Mil Domestic so 60% of the money is Domestic and 40% International
Wednesday
$6,637,061 /
$259,851,416
2nd Thursday
$4,790,162 /
$264,641,578
3rd Friday
$7,100,000 /
$271,742,000
3rd Saturday
$9,850,000 /
$281,592,000
3rd Sunday
$7,910,000 /
$289,502,000
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We'll see. The-Numbers has been down for a while, so I can't really check anything now. Too much of a variance between them and what BoxOfficeMojo shows for me to make any meaningful comparison.
Not really a big deal in the end, if they're not lying about the $225 Million budget. They only need about $60 Million more to cover that before they make at least some money. What's the last DC comic book movie that can say that it made money? I forget at this point.
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"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon
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Warner Bros. & Apple's F1 The Movie grossed $6.31M this weekend (from 2,615 locations). Total domestic gross stands at $165.66M.
Daily Grosses
FRI - $1.826M
SAT - $2.502M
SUN - $1.977M
https://bsky.app/profile/boxofficereport.bsky.social/post/3lv2ddfyzus2
u
Eternity an upcoming American romantic comedy-fantasy film about dead people with romance and jokes?
Superman overseas is suffering, it is having trouble finding money at the International Box Office. Logan had a bad domestic but very good overseas, Iron Man 2 had a good overseas almost 50/50 The Batman good overseas, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3 had a very strong overseas, A Minecraft Movie very strong overseas, Jurassic World Rebirth very strong overseas, for whatever reason the New Superman and New Fantastic Four seem to be crashing overseas...superhero fatigue in Asia and Europe?
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in a smaller more limited comicbook market for theatrical films the two movies are definitely eating each other?
Fantastic 4 Opens Strong But Superman May Be Stronger
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I'll bet if they cast John Krazinski as Mr. and Sydney Sweeny as Ms. Fantastic, this movie would have made close to $1 Billion.
Good luck making sequels to this a decade from now when the actress playing Sue is 47 years old and the actor playing Reed is 60.
Nice forward thinking there, everyone. Pat yourselves on the back. Good job. Well done.
You guys and gals done yet? Are you tired of losing money every single time you're at bat?
Fire EVERYONE in Hollywood who has been making decisions and/or has been managing other people in the last decade.
START with completely hollowing out every HR and/or DEI Departments.
Everyone who actually WORKS for a living in Hollywood should stay, assuming that they themselves weren't DEI hires. That caveat to that, of course, would be that if the DEI hire in question is actually pretty good at the job, by all means they should remain gainfully employed. But don't keep people around who under-perform. It's really quite simple and it's how things used to work when the world used to work. Shouldn't be that hard to go back to.
All Hollywood needs is some genuine creative talent, backed by a workforce of knowledgeable and talented people to do the camerawork, cinematography, editing and sound, and some good, solid management who understands what it takes to make a product that people want to see.
At one time, we had that.
We had a lot of things we took for granted that we don't have anymore.
Maybe some of them are worth taking back and fixing.
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"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon
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so are we looking at Domnestic Sub < 300m for the Fantastic Four movie? in some parts of the international market it is doing better than Superman
‘Superman’ Becomes First DC Pic in Years to Soar Past $300M Domestically
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/superman-box-offic
e-milestone-1236333843/
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