2025 Wide Release Prediction Game Thread
POSTED BY: 6ixStringJack
UPDATED: Tuesday, April 28, 2026 17:16
VIEWED: 30539
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Disney's The Fantastic Four: First Steps grossed an estimated $5.8M internationally this weekend. Estimated international total stands at $232.8M, estimated global total stands at $490.1M.
https://bsky.app/profile/boxofficereport.bsky.social/post/3lx5qc2ujqc2
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August 1st, 2025:
Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
It's looking like Fantastic 4 is going to end up getting spanked by Superman in the end.
It may have posted a stronger opening weekend by a few million dollars, but after 7 days the Domestic total for both movies after 1 week was $177.7 Million for Superman and only $158.4 Million for Fantastic 4.
It took 11 days for Superman to have a sub-$10 Million day. It only too 6 days for Fantastic Four to drop under $10 Million.
Including Preview Thursday, Superman had a 51% drop from opening weekend to 2nd weekend. Projections I've seen all think that FF4 will fall at least 60% this weekend from last.
The only saving grace FF4 may have is the international numbers, but I think that's too early to tell right now. FF4 has an international share 4% higher than Superman did. We'll see what happens on Monday. 4% doesn't sound like much, but that's 4% both ways and even if this does end up flopping or coming close to breaking even, we're still talking about nearly half a billion here so 4% is still nothing to sneeze at, and could easily be the difference between losing money and barely breaking even.
On paper right now, FF4 had a $200,000,000 budget. I'm not sure that I believe this because it's one of the cheaper budgets I've seen for a Disney/Marvel movie in a while and they say there was quite a bit of changes made after the initial test audiences rejected their intended cut.
But I hear that instead of doing full-blow re-shoots on this one, more of the changes came from simply cutting more out of the movie. That checks out since it's only got a 1hr 40min (100 minute) runtime. According to Google AI, the average run time for all Disney/Marvel movies combined has been 2hr 11min (131 minutes). That leads me to believe that any "fixes" they made here, however disjointed they may have left some parts of the movie, were much, much cheaper than what they had to spend to fix movies like Blacktain Anti-America and the black not-Ariel live-action Little Mermaid reboot nobody asked for.
Will FF4 make $500 Million?
Yeah. I think so. Unless the ticket sales fall off of a cliff this weekend and drop something stupid like -70% or more, I don't see it not making half a Billion.
But people should check back in a year from now and see what Bruce has the production budget for this movie set at then. I've caught Disney now on more than one occassion apparently fessing up to what movies ACTUALLY cost to make long after they've fallen out of the news cycle, and even Bruce doesn't mention that when it happens.
That makes me wonder how much they're paying Bruce not to mention it, really. Because I can't see any other reason why he wouldn't. He's one of very few people who are privy to that info, and even fewer who have current knowledge of changes made like this long after anybody else would even be thinking to look at it.
I don't consider him a stupid person, but I don't understand why he wouldn't say anything about this because there would be money in it for him to do so.
...
But the more I think about it though, how much money really would be in it for Bruce to blow the lid on stuff like that when it happened? Probably only a fraction of the money that would be hoovered up all over the place... especially by ambulance-chasing anti-woke YouTube channels that have been hemmoraging viewers all year.
And Bruce has worked up his relationships in Hollywood for a long time, however tight or not they are right now. Probably better and safer for him to just stay out of that and silently update those numbers as he gets them like he's been doing.
I'm right again.
It almost gets boring after a while...
Fantastic Four:
https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Fantastic-Four-The-First-Steps-(2025
)#tab=box-office
$490,525,335 after Weekend 5. It will make around $500-$600k per
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The Jaws re-release fell only just $120k short of taking first place this week on Preview Thursday.
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"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon
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Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
I'm right again.
It almost gets boring after a while...
Fantastic Four:
https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Fantastic-Four-The-First-Steps-(2025
)#tab=box-office
$490,525,335 after Weekend 5. It will make around $500-$600k per day this week, and another $3-$4 Million on weekend 6, maximum. Just barely making the $500 Million I thought it would after next weeks internationals are added in, with very little left in the gas tank.
FF4 made $2,465,280 at the Domestic Box Office this week. Right about $550k per day every day except for Cheap Seat Tuesday where it managed to break $800k. So exactly in line with where I predicted they'd be, plus a few extra bucks in the bank because of that Tuesday number.
https://www.the-numbers.com/news/259830830-Weekend-predictions-Weapons
-and-Caught-Stealing-in-close-race-for-the-box-office-crown
Bruce predicts $3,420,000 for Weekend 6.
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"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon
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Well... looks like it actually made over 5 Million on the 3-day.
I'm not going to count that as a loss for me though, because without any new flicks coming out Bruce got pretty much every prediction he had for the weekend wrong too, with Superman also making $1 Million more than he thought it would, because it was a "Popcorn Flick" weekend.
Terrible news for Hollywood in general this weekend though. They didn't even make $55 Million this weekend in the entire US Box Office for all movies combined.
Ouch.
I fully expect FF4 to end up taking a larger than normal dive next weekend to make up for this temporary bump it got with zero new competition.
All that being said, FF4 right now has $507 Million worldwide now, which is a profit of $7 Million if Disney isn't lying about the $200 Million budget. They've been caught doing so quite a few times already, so I'll have to remember to come back to this in about a year and see what the actual budget was. FF4 likely won't cross $525 Million and might stall out before hitting $520 Million before it's out of theaters.
Nobody in Hollywood spends $200 Million plus massive marketing expenses to get a $7 Million return on investment. Don't expect a sequel. And if the next Avengers movie takes a shit as well, that just might finally be the end of Comic Book movies for a long time.
Fingers crossed.
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"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon
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Warner Bros.'s Weapons grossed $784K on Wednesday
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Quote:
Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:
Warner Bros.'s Weapons grossed $784K on Wednesday
https://bsky.app/profile/boxofficereport.bsky.social/post/3lxzv3i2s222
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$241 Million on a $38 Million budget?
Not too shabby.
It made way more money after breaking even than Superman and Fantastic 4 did combined.
Sounds like it could be an interesting flick from the synopsis.
ETA: Superman and FF4 combined have made $58,282,821 after breaking even combined.
So far, Weapons has made $145,940,178 after breaking even.
And even though this is a WB flick, I doubt that they needed to hit 2.5x to break even because I doubt they spent enough on marketing to bump them much past a 2.0x breakeven point.
And if you remove Thursday previews from the first weekend, all three weekend drops so far were in the mid to high 30s.
It will probably make another $5 or $6 Million in the US this weekend. Although, now that I look at the new movies that just came out, The Conjuring is probably going to overlap that audience by quite a bit and there might be a pretty big fall for Weapons this time around, so maybe not.
Oh well. WB should be more than pleased at this result even if it nosedives now. It's done well.
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"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon
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Maybe Weapons does better than I thought despite the Conjuring coming out this weekend?
Bruce predicts only a -27% drop for some reason this weekend on Weapons, even with a projected $66.8 Million for Conjuring. I would have thought there would be some serious overlap between the two and Weapons would have been buried under it.
So far, he's not right. It's dropped -44% from Friday to Friday, but looking just at F/F drops rarely paints the weekend picture, so I guess we wait and see.
ETA:
Well... he does mention this at the end of his prediction article...
Quote:
With all the returning films coming out of a slight uptick thanks to Labor Day last weekend, we might see some steep drops on the chart when we get the numbers on Saturday and Sunday. The model partially accounts for that, but drops of 40% or more for all the returning films are quite likely, in my opinion.
... which is basically what I said on the 2nd regarding Fantastic 4's smaller than expected Labor Day Weekend drop:
Quote:
I fully expect FF4 to end up taking a larger than normal dive next weekend to make up for this temporary bump it got with zero new competition.
ETA2:
And a deeper look at Friday's numbers in general appear to support this theory all around.
Friday to Friday drops:
Weapons: -45%
Freakier Friday: -47%
Caught Stealing: -71%
The Roses: -68%
Fantastic Four: -43%
The Bad Guys 2: -62%
Superman: -62%
The Naked Gun: -70%
F1: The Movie: -55%
Jurassic World Rebirth: -66%
Nobody 2: -81%
Toxic Avengare Unrated: -90%
Honey Don't: -90%
Lilo & Stitch: -93%
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"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon
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Snow White is out of the top 15
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