2025 Wide Release Prediction Game Thread
POSTED BY: 6ixStringJack
UPDATED: Tuesday, April 28, 2026 17:16
VIEWED: 30539
PAGE 27 of 53
Quote:
Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:
so are we looking at Domnestic Sub < 300m for the Fantastic Four movie? in some parts of the international market it is doing better than Superman
‘Superman’ Becomes First DC Pic in Years to Soar Past $300M Domestically
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/superman-box-offic
e-milestone-1236333843/
I got nothing against it except for the casting of Pedro Pascal. I want to see it fail just because of him.
Well that and fuck Disney anyhow. They have it coming to them.
BTW... Disney's park revenue is abysmal in 2025, Second.
I think you already know that because you haven't mentioned it once this year.
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It's looking like Fantastic 4 is going to end up getting spanked by Superman in the end.
It may have posted a stronger opening weekend by a few million dollars, but after 7 days the Domestic total for both movies after 1 week was $177.7 Million for Superman and only $158.4 Million for Fantastic 4.
It took 11 days for Superman to have a sub-$10 Million day. It only too 6 days for Fantastic Four to drop under $10 Million.
Including Preview Thursday, Superman had a 51% drop from opening weekend to 2nd weekend. Projections I've seen all think that FF4 will fall at least 60% this weekend from last.
The only saving grace FF4 may have is the international numbers, but I think that's too early to tell right now. FF4 has an international share 4% higher than Superman did. We'll see what happens on Monday. 4% doesn't sound like much, but that's 4% both ways and even if this does end up flopping or coming close to breaking even, we're still talking about nearly half a billion here so 4% is still nothing to sneeze at, and could easily be the difference between losing money and barely breaking even.
On paper right now, FF4 had a $200,000,000 budget. I'm not sure that I believe this because it's one of the cheaper budgets I've seen for a Disney/Marvel movie in a while and they say there was quite a bit of changes made after the initial test audiences rejected their intended cut.
But I hear that instead of doing full-blow re-shoots on this one, more of the changes came from simply cutting more out of the movie. That checks out since it's only got a 1hr 40min (100 minute) runtime. According to Google AI, the average run time for all Disney/Marvel movies combined has been 2hr 11min (131 minutes). That leads me to believe that any "fixes" they made here, however disjointed they may have left some parts of the movie, were much, much cheaper than what they had to spend to fix movies like Blacktain Anti-America and the black not-Ariel live-action Little Mermaid reboot nobody asked for.
Will FF4 make $500 Million?
Yeah. I think so. Unless the ticket sales fall off of a cliff this weekend and drop something stupid like -70% or more, I don't see it not making half a Billion.
But people should check back in a year from now and see what Bruce has the production budget for this movie set at then. I've caught Disney now on more than one occassion apparently fessing up to what movies ACTUALLY cost to make long after they've fallen out of the news cycle, and even Bruce doesn't mention that when it happens.
That makes me wonder how much they're paying Bruce not to mention it, really. Because I can't see any other reason why he wouldn't. He's one of very few people who are privy to that info, and even fewer who have current knowledge of changes made like this long after anybody else would even be thinking to look at it.
I don't consider him a stupid person, but I don't understand why he wouldn't say anything about this because there would be money in it for him to do so.
...
But the more I think about it though, how much money really would be in it for Bruce to blow the lid on stuff like that when it happened? Probably only a fraction of the money that would be hoovered up all over the place... especially by ambulance-chasing anti-woke YouTube channels that have been hemmoraging viewers all year.
And Bruce has worked up his relationships in Hollywood for a long time, however tight or not they are right now. Probably better and safer for him to just stay out of that and silently update those numbers as he gets them like he's been doing.
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Superman WB doing poor in Europe / Asia and Marvel F4 has done poorly in Europe Asia
Marvel Disney plans? Trouble making 1 Billion Marvel, maybe fix it and just add more 'stars' from the comicbook and put Hulk into a Spider-Man film
attempts at jump starting the cashcow?
Mark Ruffalo Returning as the Hulk for ‘Spider-Man 4’
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/spider-man-brand-n
ew-day-mark-ruffalo-1236232140/
SUPERMAN ready to cross the 550M mark at Global BoxOffice this weekend, after hitting a 225.3M intl. cume over 78 markets overseas on THU.
Eyeing a 640M-700M Global run, depending on how TheFantasticFour affects its legs.
https://x.com/Luiz_Fernando_J/status/1951325455308693544
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Quote:
Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:
Mark Ruffalo Returning as the Hulk for ‘Spider-Man 4’
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/spider-man-brand-n
ew-day-mark-ruffalo-1236232140/
That's a mistake. Nobody wants to see Mark Ruffalo anymore.
Bring back Ed Norton if you want to fix The Hulk.
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the 2nd Fridays
Superman
$16,565,362 /
$194,348,824
Minecraft
$20,500,779 /
$220,862,512
Thor Love And Thunder
$16,565,362 /
$194,348,824
F1 the movie
$6,960,390 /
$90,467,676
The Batman year 2021-ish moved to 2022
$18,614,979 /
$191,135,805
Fantastic Four
$11,700,000 /
$170,127,635
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FF4 falls just over 64% from Friday to Friday after removing Thursday preview numbers from the original Friday. (Recorded by the industry with Thursday previews included, it's an 80% drop).
Opening Day: $57,265,566 - $24,400,000 = $32,865,566
This Friday: $11,700,000
Superman's 2nd Friday: $16,565,362
2nd Saturday: $23,026,404
2nd Sunday: $18,858,328
Superman's 2nd Friday drop, with the Thursday Previews included was -70% compared to FF4's -80% drop.
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36+ Million to enter the Top50 Worldwide
413 + Million to enter the Top10 on international Box Office
movie F1 did poor domestically but had a huge overseas percentage
1 Ne Zha 2 China $1,994,564,524
2 Lilo & Stitch $1,019,270,728
3 A Minecraft Movie $954,585,398
4 Jurassic World Rebirth $736,406,546
5 How to Train Your Dragon $609,978,139
6 Mission: Impossible—The Final Reckoning $592,101,824
7 Superman $531,606,392
8 F1: The Movie $528,270,512
9 Tang Tan 1900 China $452,502,745
10 Captain America: Brave New World $413,640,021
11 Thunderbolts* $382,376,746
12 Sinners $365,821,942
13 Final Destination: Bloodlines $285,330,814
14 The Fantastic Four: First Steps $268,917,087
15 Disney’s Snow White $205,679,463
16 Creation of the Gods II: Demonic Confrontation China $158,047,338
17 Detective Conan: One-eyed Flashback Japan $150,588,900
18 28 Years Later $150,032,064
19 Dog Man $145,567,655
20 Elio $138,254,785
21 Mickey 17 $133,016,530
22 From the World of John Wick: Ballerina $131,793,612
23 Bridget Jones: Mad About The Boy $130,131,295
24 Dead To Rights China $112,893,177
25 Boonie Bears: Future Reborn China $104,582,715
26 Karate Kid: Legends $103,341,152
27 The Accountant 2 $103,223,366
28 A Working Man $98,011,278
29 The Amateur $96,000,836
30 Legends of the Condor Heroes: The Gallants China $89,406,052
31 Smurfs $73,535,958
32 The King of Kings $73,402,808
33 The Lychee Road China $69,881,843
34 The Monkey $63,683,002
35 Den of Thieves 2: Pantera $58,371,507
36 The Dumpling Queen China $52,777,038
37 One of Them Days $51,347,454
38 Materialists $50,800,875
39 Until Dawn $50,174,192
40 I Know What You Did Last Summer $49,537,093
41 Operation Hadal China $49,286,339
42 Flight Risk $48,703,174
43 She’s Got No Name China $46,443,031
44 Black Bag $43,434,248
45 M3GAN 2.0 $39,035,507
46 The Phoenician Scheme $38,767,466
47 Volshebnik Izumrudnogo goroda Russian $37,938,360
48 Demon Slayer -Kimetsu no Yaiba- The Movie: Japan $37,500,000
49 A Gilded Game China $37,341,690
50 Companion $36,709,101
Disney's The Fantastic Four: First Steps has passed the $350M global mark.
https://x.com/BORReport/status/1952022929816055845
The film grossed an estimated $39.6M internationally this weekend. Estimated international total stands at $170.3M, estimated global total stands at $368.7M.
I was thinking 750 but the international numbers are bad, it could be 317 + 275? = 592?
much lower than my Domestic '390' its only doing 350 global now
anyways Marvel might even spin this as a 'win' with Baseball Caps, Funfair Rides, comics, toys, Download games etc
they want Fantastic Four to be a household name like Avengers or 'Superman' but its not happening
Fantastic Four early 90s unreleased film flop = zero money
Fan4 cartoons, games, comics = unknown money
Fantastic Four 2005 film = $333.5 million
Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer Box office $301.9 million
Fantastic Four 2015 film Box office $167.9 million
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Clownfish TV incorrectly reporting today that FF4 fell 80% from last weekend. They got things mixed up and were applying the Friday with Preview week to week number as if that were the full weekend drop.
According to The-Numbers and the early projections, it was "only" a -66% drop.
Still though, with a weak international number on this one already, that's BAD news.
We're talking $40 Million now for weekend 2, when Superman had $58 Million on weekend 2.
And let's not forget, even though FF4 is going to be the first Marvel movie of 2024 to make any money, if it does make any, it won't be all that much and certainly won't cover the losses of the ones that came before it.
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At least 1 out of 3 of the Pedro Pascal movies currently in theaters is a major box office failure. One of them has made a few bucks.
Eddington cost anywhere from $25 to $50 Million to make, depending on the source. It hasn't grossed $10 Million. It has been projected by A24 to only gross $150k today. Major loss for A24 on this one. (These budget numbers come from sources like Variety and Deadline. Bruce does not have a Production Budget number for this movie listed.)
The Materialists, another A24 film, has a production budget of $20 Million according to Bruce. This one has made a few bucks with a total worldwide current gross of $62 Million. (At least a $7 Million profit here, but I don't think A24 spends much on marketing so maybe $10 Million???).
In any event, that movie is done too with only $42k being reported as the projection by A24 today. One if not both of these movies will likely be dropped out of most if not all theaters on Friday, leaving A24 with a loss of at least $20 Million, but as much as $40 Million on Pedro Pascal movies in 2024.
If FF4 doesn't gross $500 Million, or if it comes to light that Disney spent more than it is admitting it did, it will be another flop for Pedro in 2024.
I think it should probably hit $500 Million, but I'm not so sure.
I wouldn't ever expect there to be 2 Pedro movies in the theaters at once again, let alone 3. In fact, we might not see much more of him at all in the future.
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"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon
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