2025 Wide Release Prediction Game Thread
POSTED BY: 6ixStringJack
UPDATED: Tuesday, April 28, 2026 17:16
VIEWED: 30539
PAGE 25 of 53
maybe winners exist while almost everything else crashes....expensive flops exit the stage? or will Trump bail out Hollywood??
Warner Bros and DC winning, Disney/Marvel and Universal does good
Hollywood struggles on the international stage
who else makes money, the Japanese anime guys and gaming companies, small US and European indie studios, the Chinese, Fantawild, the SKorea tv show, Disney/Pixar animated toons, Wanda Pictures, Wai Keung Lau, Japanese Sony, the phone games, Toho, and Xbox and Nintendo.
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Box Office: ‘Superman’ Leaps Past $300M Globally, Nears $200M Domestically
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/box-office-superma
n-300-globally-1236319665/
WB Superman expected to cross 400M this weekend, heat wave in Europe some say theaters don’t have AC.
big drops in Asia, just American fatigue or comicbook fatigue in general or Superhero fatigue? Japan doesnt really like DC.
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More weird international numbers. I archived them this time, but Box Office Mojo is replicating what the-numbers shows now so it probably won't be changed.
https://archive.ph/3pr6O
Now we're up to $142.8 Million internationally. Doesn't make sense that they'd put those numbers out on Friday night / Saturday morning.
That may be accurate if it's up to date as of Thursday. Because even with just a $95 Million opening weekend internationally, I would expect somewhere around $170-$200 Million at the end of Weekend 2, since the 1st week and 2nd weekend combined is usually pretty close to double the first weekend for the internationals.
It would also mean that yes, Superman should fairly easily cross $400 Million by Sunday night.
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"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon
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Quote:
big drops in Asia, just American fatigue or comicbook fatigue in general or Superhero fatigue? Japan doesnt really like DC.
Not sure on this one. Box Office Mojo doesn't even show that it was released in China at all. Bruce's number is still stagnant at the $6.6 Million early number for China. I think my old man may have mentioned that he heard China was shutting it down from because of unrelated (to Hollywood) political/economic issues, but if that's really the case I haven't seen any documenatation about that, and he may have just been getting that confused with earlier reports that it might not have even got a Chinese release from a few weeks ago.
Right now, There's $52 Million unallocated in the "Rest of World" money on Bruce's International Tab, which we have already discovered over time doesn't necessarily mean other countries not on his list, but just that he hasn't taken the time or doesn't yet know the country by country breakdown of the international numbers at this point in time.
And honestly, I'm not sure if that 2nd bump is even new money, or it's some of the 1st weekend money put back after they put it up and took it down the other night. Who knows what the international total really is right now? Near impossible to figure out because of how it is presented even when they're presenting it on a regular schedule. Absolutely impossible for us to track at all when they pull these kinds of stunts.
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"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon
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Marvel/Disney admits Superman is doing good
Kevin Feige on Marvel Studios’ Future, Focusing on Lower Budgets, Less TV and More Robert Downey Jr.: ‘Look at “Superman,” It’s Clearly Not Superhero Fatigue’
https://variety.com/2025/film/news/marvel-kevin-feige-robert-downey-jr
-miles-morales-1236465488/
Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Absolutely impossible for us to track at all when they pull these kinds of stunts.
I know Japan was notoriously Late often 6 months to almost a year behind the rest, it got faster over the years as people demanded it get to screens quicker with DVDs and streaming
maybe the translator voice over actors were waiting for a big payment, they are much faster now
it said 11th-12th of July 2025 in Japan
However the Japanese market has been shriking as the SKorea one was growing and India and China box office numbers grew, they say Jurassic World Rebirth beat 'Superman' in south Korea
There is also a popular Japan Anime in competition with Superman
Kokuho
'In post-war Japan's economic boom, gangster family-born Kikuo Tachibana finds himself adopted by a kabuki actor.'
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/2025W28/?area=JP
1
Kokuho
2
Superman
3
F1: The Movie
4
Lilo & Stitch
5
Dollhouse
6 -
King of Prism - Your Endless Call- Minna Kirameki! Prism Tours
7
Uta No Prince-Sama: Maji Love Taboo Night Xxxx
8
Frontline Kosai Sekine
9
Baban Baban Ban Vampire
10
Drop
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Superman is below Minecraft, a good contest with Jurassic World Rebirth, Superman seems to be with Thor Love and Thunder box office, doing 'The Batman' numbers slightly stronger start to Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3
Friday
$16,565,362 /
$194,348,824
Saturday
$23,026,404 /
$217,375,228
Sunday
$18,858,328 /
$236,233,556
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Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
More weird international numbers. I archived them this time, but Box Office Mojo is replicating what the-numbers shows now so it probably won't be changed.
https://archive.ph/3pr6O
Now we're up to $142.8 Million internationally. Doesn't make sense that they'd put those numbers out on Friday night / Saturday morning.
That may be accurate if it's up to date as of Thursday. Because even with just a $95 Million opening weekend internationally, I would expect somewhere around $170-$200 Million at the end of Weekend 2, since the 1st week and 2nd weekend combined is usually pretty close to double the first weekend for the internationals.
It would also mean that yes, Superman should fairly easily cross $400 Million by Sunday night.
Yup. My actual thinking was $410 Million, but I didn't bother saying it because I didn't know for certain what was going on with those internationals. Looks like my instincts were right though.
It looks as though the internationals have been reconciled according to Bruce, and that these are now the current international numbers at roughly $172 Million after the 2nd weekend.
Superman is now at $408 Million worldwide.
It only needs about $155 Million now to break even. It should probably be pretty close to 2/3rds of the way there by the end of next weekend, and another $50-$60 Million should be easy to recoup in the few weeks after that. They'll probably make a few bucks on this one before it goes to streaming.
Depending on its legs, it could even make $100-$150 Million for the studio, especially if the rest of the summer box office is pretty weak and if FF4 takes a huge shit like a lot of people assume it will.
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"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon
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if you go 410 then I'll go Low
I'll say 750-760,
Domestic '390' plus 360 overseas or maybe international numbers even lower
its certainly not 40-35% USA and 60-65% international
after Superman remake?
‘The Fantastic Four: First Steps’ Expected To Be Big With $190M-$210M Global Box Office Opening ($100-110M Domestic, $90-100M Overseas)
https://deadline.com/2025/07/fantastic-four-box-office-opening-1236465
209/
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Quote:
Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:
if you go 410 then I'll go Low
$410 was just about what I thought it would look like after last weekend if I was right about the state of internationals, while saying getting past $400 Million (reported in one of the articles) was something I was in agreement with. It turned out being $408. I didn't say what I thought we were still going to get.
Quote:
I'll say 750-760,
Domestic '390' plus 360 overseas or maybe international numbers even lower
its certainly not 40-35% USA and 60-65% international
I agree with you here. $750 sounds about right. It's not going to go over $800 unless a summer miracle happens for it and everything else ends up flopping and people are still watching this thing well into next month.
Quote:
after Superman remake?
‘The Fantastic Four: First Steps’ Expected To Be Big With $190M-$210M Global Box Office Opening ($100-110M Domestic, $90-100M Overseas)
https://deadline.com/2025/07/fantastic-four-box-office-opening-1236465
209/
My prediction on this one opening weekend is that it won't crack $100 Million in the US. I think they're doing whatever damage control they can do to try to save this thing last minute, but the opening weekend predictions just keep getting revised down.
By the end, I expect Disney to lose more money with FF4 and I also expect them to keep Kevin Feige around like they do Kathleen Kennedy because at this point I'm sure both of them have some huge blackmail material against either Bob Iger and/or somebody else big enough that they are unfirable no matter how much damage they do at Disney.
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"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon
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Unless the Marvel fan boys were out in force last night, my sub-$100 Million prediction may have been premature. It grossed $2 Million more than Superman did on preview Thursday and is already 25% on its way to $100 Million before the weekend starts.
Bruce says his model is telling him $157, but he personally thinks that somewhere around $125 sounds right.
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"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon
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