2025 Wide Release Prediction Game Thread
POSTED BY: 6ixStringJack
UPDATED: Tuesday, April 28, 2026 17:16
VIEWED: 30539
PAGE 19 of 53
Thunderbolts might not beat Nu Captain America, its stuck right behind on its heels and earning less and now the box office is busy so it will have trouble picking up any more money. Thunderbolts has been in theaters for less than four weeks and it’s about $50m ish behind
https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons-extended/Sinners
-(2025)/Captain-America-Brave-New-World-(2025)/Thunderbolts-(2025)#tab=day_by_day_comparison
4th Wednesday almost the same $179,165,966 vs $176,310,746
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Quote:
Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:
Thunderbolts might not beat Nu Captain America, its stuck right behind on its heels and earning less and now the box office is busy so it will have trouble picking up any more money. Thunderbolts has been in theaters for less than four weeks and it’s about $50m ish behind
https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons-extended/Sinners
-(2025)/Captain-America-Brave-New-World-(2025)/Thunderbolts-(2025)#tab=day_by_day_comparison
4th Wednesday almost the same $179,165,966 vs $176,310,746
Nah... Thunderbolts already lost this race, unfortunately.
That's just bad timing for them is all. Blacktain Anti-America had zero competition surrounding it for weeks in the worst box-office 1st quarter I've seen.
Where Thunderbolt fails now is the international box office. Even though it looks like Thunderbolts will almost certainly beat Anti-America in the states if given the same amount of time before it gets yanked, It's still down $53 Million from Anti-America worldwide.
That's a gap far too wide to cross at this point, even if Bruce surprises with an extra $10-$15 Million international.
They both lost Disney money, and along with their other failure so far this year that I already forgot about, they're about $900 Million in the hole so far and those losses will gobble up most of what Lilo and Stitch ends up making. The only way they end up in the black again off of L&S is if it grosses around $1.2 Billion or more worldwide. After that they start making money again in 2025 until they (probably) lose money on Fantastic Four and some other bullshit movie I heard is still coming out from them this year that I've already forgot and nobody wants.
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"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon
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Tom Cruise’s ‘Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning’ Rules China Box Office
https://variety.com/2025/film/news/tom-cruise-mission-impossible-china
-box-office-1236415430/
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Quote:
Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:
Tom Cruise’s ‘Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning’ Rules China Box Office
https://variety.com/2025/film/news/tom-cruise-mission-impossible-china
-box-office-1236415430/
2 weekends in and it's still $47 Million from breaking even with just the production budget.
Not going to matter on this one. This is the final nail for Paramount.
That's what you get for spending $400 Million and making Disney look frugal with their budgets, you dumb shits.
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"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon
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KARATE KID: LEGENDS added another $12M international this weekend, $26M total.
https://x.com/ERCboxoffice/status/1929206292104593492
UK ($3.4M)
GER ($2.2M)
Middle East ($1.4M)
Warner Bros.'s Sinners grossed $5.27M this weekend (from 2,138 locations). Total domestic gross stands at $267.13M.
https://x.com/BORReport/status/1929614479916257516
Daily Grosses
FRI - $1.560M
SAT - $2.160M
SUN - $1.550M
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Didn't have much hope for Karate Kid.
Sounds like a blip. You know if they broke the bank on that budget or not? I can't even be arsed to look it up, honestly.
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"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon
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Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Didn't have much hope for Karate Kid.
Sounds like a blip. You know if they broke the bank on that budget or not? I can't even be arsed to look it up, honestly.
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"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon
Quiet night around here. So I did look it up since Bruce didn't have it.
Variety said that it was $45 Million and that they expect it to make a profit due to the "modest" budget. To be fair to them, sadly, $45 Million does appear to be pretty modest in 2025, considering we've had 2 horror movies this year that were $50 Million and $90 Million already.
Worldwide Gross is just a few bucks over $46 Million, so unless anything crazy happens like a complete loss of interest by Weekend 2, I concur with their statement.
Unless marketing for this was a low-budget affair, which I honestly wouldn't know because we're 5 months into 2025 and I have yet to see a single commercial, it's probably not going to make all that much in the end, but it shouldn't lose any money for Sony or Columbia Pictures.
As time passes and I don't obsess over these movies any longer, I couldn't say with absolute certainty now, but I can't think of a single example where a movie didn't make money as long as it recouped at least 100% of the production budget worldwide after the first weekend. This one passed that test, even if just by only $1 Million.
It needs $112.5 Million to break even at RoT2.5x. If it doesn't buck the usual trend, it should be sitting somewhere just under $100 Million by the end of next weekend, and it will be making money, likely during or right before the start of Weekend 3. But by weekend 4 we're already looking at Domestic number of maybe $2 or $3 Million tops.
But hey... $30-$40 Million in profit off of a $45 Million investment ain't half bad. If I had a money printing machine where I could nearly double my money, I'd be using it every chance I had.
This is actually a real good example of what the studios need to get back to.
Make 8 of these movies instead of 1 Mission Impossible movie. Not only aren't you wasting all your budget on some high-priced prima-donna that most American's can't stand to look at anymore*, but you'd be putting 8 times as many actual working people to work and/or keeping those people 8 times as gainfully employed than if they were only making the one movie.
Your bonus is if you lose on one or two of them, you aren't betting the farm on them and you can always luck into one or two of those eight movies being a mega-hit that brings in a ton of cash.
Let's get away from CGI and overpriced actors and back to making good movies again.
*I love Tom Cruise. I wasn't referring to him specifically, although I'm sure with a PB of $400 Million, he was insanely overpaid for this latest MI movie given how bad the last one did and how much worse this one will do by comparison.
Can't blame his Agent for taking advantage of Paramount if they let him do it. They've got to know that Cruise has just about maybe 1 Top Gun and 1 Edge of Tomorrow sequel left in him before his action days are done. That won't mean the end of his career necessarily. I don't expect him to hop from that straight to redbox/netflix like Bruce Willis and idiot Robert Deniro. And as much as I love Nic Cage, Cruise will never be in that desperate situation to be doing movies with those types of budgets either.
Is there place in Cinema in 2025 and beyond for the Next Paul Newman?
If the answer to that is yes, I can't see a more fitting Golden Years era of Cruise's career than to follow in Newman's footsteps and make some great old man roles.
Who's up for a 3rd entry in the Poolhouse Saga, possibly some 70 years after the first movie?
I'm game.
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Release date November 2025
Wicked: For Good first trailer reveals new songs, a wedding, and the first glimpse of Dorothy as fans try to figure out who will play the iconic character
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-14782659/Wicked-Good-tra
iler-songs-wedding-Dorothy.html
Fantastic Four remake
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After all the good press I was hearing about this since last year, I've now been hearing quite a bit of questions asking if this is going to lose money for Disney too.
Sounds like they made it another Girl Boss turd, with Pedro Pascal more than happy to play his recurring role as The Cuck.
You go, Girl!
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"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon
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The Karate Kid is back, and this time with Legends. But is it any good?
https://www.smh.com.au/culture/movies/the-karate-kid-is-back-and-this-
time-with-legends-but-is-it-any-good-20250604-p5m4uw.html
‘Lilo & Stitch’ Nears $800M Global, ‘Mission: Impossible – Final Reckoning’ Tops $450M & ‘Ballerina’ Bows To $51M WW
https://deadline.com/2025/06/lilo-stitch-mission-impossible-ballerina-
global-box-office-1236426946/
Gavin Newsom Demands Trump Administration Remove National Guard From L.A. Amid ICE Protests: ‘Rescind the Order. Return Control to California’ Article
https://variety.com/2025/biz/news/gavin-newsom-demands-trump-remove-na
tional-guard-la-protest-1236422793/
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