Cinema
2025 Wide Release Prediction Game Thread
POSTED BY: 6ixStringJack
UPDATED: Tuesday, April 28, 2026 17:16
VIEWED: 30539
PAGE 18 of 53
Sunday, May 25, 2025 8:09 PM
Quote:6ixStringJack, you are full of shit. Barry Diller, famous at Paramount, exited the movie business. He knows why the business is dying and there is nothing about politics. It is all about the personalities running Hollywood. Actually, it is a LACK of personality. The new owners have none. They are human zeros and their taste in entertainment is execrable/excretion/putrid. So the human zeros end up dumping the product on streaming a couple of weeks after it premieres in the movie theaters. The dumping is killing movie ticket sales.
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
This is having a much larger negative impact on traditional cable TV than it ever will have on movie theaters.
People aren't going to see movies because there's still a glut of half-assed DEI projects that were too far completed to outright cancel, there's a shortage of movies in general still because of the actor/writer's strikes and because all the venture capital dried up and they used that opportunity to slash more than half of the movies and shows they were planning on making. Which is why you never saw a cartoon for My Racist Baby and you haven't heard a word out of race grifter Kendi for years now.
And Joe Biden*'s economy made going to the theaters cost so much that people are making real decisions about which movies they can afford to see in a theater right now.
Hollywood only continues its downward slide for one or both of 2 reasons.
1. They continue the woke DEI shit that nobody wants to pay to see.
2. The economy continues to tumble.
At least right now, it doesn't look like either of those things are going to happen.
And, other than just giving up and dying, with nowhere really left to go but up, Hollywood should start posting some improvements over the coming years.
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"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon
Diller Speaks: Hollywood’s Most Fearsome Legend Bares His Soul
By Maer Roshan | May 21, 2025
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/business-news/barry-diller-
interview-hollywood-legacy-memoir-who-knew-1236222652/
Your book captures a version of Hollywood that’s almost mythic now. You write about these operatic, over-the-top characters — Robert Evans, Marvin Davis — who make their modern equivalents seem anemic. Do you feel nostalgic for that time?
It certainly was a time of more flamboyance. The business required big personalities, extremes, people who operated without restraint. That used to be the fun — and the engine — of the entertainment business. Now it’s different. Everyone is more cautious and conformist now. Worried about being canceled or sued. The rough edges have been sanded off. We’ve gone from a town to a spreadsheet. And obviously that can’t help but impact the creative output as well.
You mean because Hollywood is now run by tech companies?
That’s part of it. Netflix, Amazon, Apple — they control the game now. But they don’t have any real roots in this community. They didn’t grow up yearning for Hollywood. They don’t care about its history, its mythology. Their interests are driven by entirely different models. Amazon doesn’t care if your movie is good — they care if it helps keep people subscribed to Prime and buying socks. Not exactly a recipe for greatness.
Do you think that true of Netflix as well?
Netflix won’t even tell you how many people watched your movie. Why? Because they don’t want you to know. Their business is entirely algorithmic. They care about satisfaction across a vast catalog. Your individual film? It’s just another tile in the grid. It’s no big deal if it succeeds or fails.
So how do you make something that lasts in this environment?
That’s the problem. Great work doesn’t sit in the culture anymore. It’s gone in a flash. One hand clapping in a forest. We used to have shows that 50 million people watched on the same night. Now? If something gets 7 million, it’s a smash hit. There’s just too much. Too many op
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Sunday, May 25, 2025 11:02 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by second:Quote:6ixStringJack, you are full of shit.
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
This is having a much larger negative impact on traditional cable TV than it ever will have on movie theaters.
People aren't going to see movies because there's still a glut of half-assed DEI projects that were too far completed to outright cancel, there's a shortage of movies in general still because of the actor/writer's strikes and because all the venture capital dried up and they used that opportunity to slash more than half of the movies and shows they were planning on making. Which is why you never saw a cartoon for My Racist Baby and you haven't heard a word out of race grifter Kendi for years now.
And Joe Biden*'s economy made going to the theaters cost so much that people are making real decisions about which movies they can afford to see in a theater right now.
Hollywood only continues its downward slide for one or both of 2 reasons.
1. They continue the woke DEI shit that nobody wants to pay to see.
2. The economy continues to tumble.
At least right now, it doesn't look like either of those things are going to happen.
And, other than just giving up and dying, with nowhere really left to go but up, Hollywood should start posting some improvements over the coming years.
--------------------------------------------------
"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon
No. I'm not.
It's why I'm better at this than people who are paid to do it.
Not going to bother reading any of that wall of text that I know was written by a moron because you decided to post it.
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"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon
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Monday, May 26, 2025 4:54 PM
Quote:Trump is a fast talker but a slow reader, prone to boredom after 50 words. Trumptards are the same.
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
No. I'm not.
It's why I'm better at this than people who are paid to do it.
Not going to bother reading any of that wall of text that I know was written by a moron because you decided to post it.
Hollywood is killing itself with stunts that inflate the cost of production. And the unnecessary risk of injury and death doesn't increase the profitability.
Quote:
Mission: Impossible (1996) 5.7 (worldwide box office is 5.7 times production budget)
Mission: Impossible (2000) 4.6
Mission: Impossible (2006) 2.7
Mission: Impossible (2011) 4.8
Mission: Impossible (2015) 4.6
Mission: Impossible (2018) 4.4
Mission: Impossible (2023) 2.0
Mission: Impossible (2025) 0.5 (worldwide box office is 0.5 times production budget)
https://www.the-numbers.com/custom-search?searchterm=mission+impossibl
e
‘Mission: Impossible’ Stunts, Ranked By the Danger They Posed To the Health and Safety of Tom Cruise
Whether he's scaling the world's tallest building, holding his breath for six straight minutes, or jumping from plane to plane in the latest installment, Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning, there's nothing Tom Cruise won't do to entertain us. We've ranked his greatest stunts in order of riskiness.
By William Goodman | May 23, 2025
https://www.gq.com/story/mission-impossible-stunts-ranked-by-danger-to
m-cruise
Since its big-screen debut in 1996, the Mission: Impossible franchise has distinguished itself from other spy-movie franchises because it has one thing its competitors don't: Tom Cruise—and more specifically, Tom Cruise risking life and limb to entertain us by performing insane stunts. With each subsequent Ethan Hunt adventure, we get more stories (like this one, from the pages of GQ) about Tom Cruise doing something extremely risky in order to enthrall an audience, whether he's learning to hold his breath underwater for six minutes or scaling the exterior of the world's tallest building.
In the series' seventh installment, Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning, Hunt states to a character that their life “will always be more important to me than my own,” which feels like a declaration of Cruise’s guiding philosophy when it comes to stunt work. Recall Matt Damon's story about a dinner conversation he had with Cruise about a stunt in Ghost Protocol and the safety coordinator who deemed the stunt too dangerous for Cruise to execute; the punch line of that story is Cruise telling Damon “So, I get a new safety guy.”
Cruise fulfills his mission statement in the latest and purportedly final Mission: Impossible film, Mission: Impossible — Final Reckoning, by first hanging off the wing of a biplane and then jumping from it to another, nearby plane—establishing a new benchmark for both blockbuster-film stunt performance and actorly self-endangerment. As the franchise races into the sunset on a speeding bullet train, we’ve ranked the craziest stunts from the Mission series by degree of danger, from least to most.
11. Tom Shatters a Giant Fish Tank (Mission: Impossible, 1996)
Danger Level: Mild
An exploding fish tank feels like small potatoes in the larger scope of the Mission series, but Cruise has said the stunt was indeed “very crazy.” Talking to Graham Norton in 2018, Cruise recalled that he and the stunt coordinator couldn’t get on the same page about the timing of the explosion, resulting in a Who’s On First-like back and forth about whether the “go” was on the count of three or the count of one. Considering the sequence involved a detonation, glass, and plenty of water, the potential for danger was high, but hardly life-threatening.
10. Tom Does a Free Solo Climb (Mission: Impossible 2, 2000)
Danger Level: Unnecessarily high.
Cruise’s wholehearted approach to dangerous stunt work began in earnest with John Woo’s Mission: Impossible 2. The ac
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Monday, May 26, 2025 10:58 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by second:Quote:Trump
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
No. I'm not.
It's why I'm better at this than people who are paid to do it.
Not going to bother reading any of that wall of text that I know was written by a moron because you decided to post it.
Shut the fuck up.
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"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon
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Monday, May 26, 2025 11:02 PM
Gross...
https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Lilo-and-Stitch-(2025)#tab=box-offic
e
Keep buying shit, people.
I don't want to hear any complaining out of you about Disney live action remakes when you're still giving them a $340 Million opening weekend in 2025.
You get what you deserve.
Meanwhile, if this movie hits a about $1.3 Billion, Disney will break even for the year so far. So at least it's not as if they're going to be doing well even if this performs great. They've already suffered three massive flops costing them just around $900 Million for the year before this dropped.
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"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon
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Tuesday, May 27, 2025 12:01 AM
Well... Maybe this one actually isn't shit...
https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Lilo-and-Stitch-(2025)#tab=summary
Quote:
Audience approval for Lilo & Stitch is sky-high, with CinemaScore reporting an “A” rating, and an “A+” from younger fans. The audience is 36% male, 64% female, and breaks down as 56% “general audience”, 29% parents and 15% kids, per Disney. That general audience score is notable, and one of the reasons the film is doing these numbers. 30% of the audience is 25–34, a demographic that will include some parents with kids, but many who are not. The audience is culturally diverse too: 39% Hispanic, 34% Caucasian, 12% African-American, 8% Native American/Other, and 7% Asian.
I know that Bruce is a closeted Trump hater. That much is clear from years of gleaning his political position over years of reading his articles. He is much more intelligent than your average "journalist" out there, and knows better than to drag politics into his website, which is why the-numbers will outlive much of his competition... but the mask always slips every once in a while.
That being said, I don't think he puts any outright false stats out there either. The only "false" things he does is what the entire industry does... things like never counting inflation so they can always say the word "record breaking" even though most of the records stopped being broken in the 1970s, before many of us were born.
So if he puts out the current Cinema Score at an A/A+, I'm not going to double check that claim. The audience, particularly the kids, seem to love it.
I do think it's kind of weird though that 56% of the people watching this are neither kids or parents/guardians taking kids to see it.
I guess the creepy dudes who have no business going out in public to watch a kids movie in theaters full of kids are in good company and can just disappear into the crowd when more than half of any random showing of the movie this weekend was childless adult babies going to see it.
Also to note... Disney should be thanking the Mexican Americans this weekend. While the current trending has a minority percentage almost exactly in line with their demographic makeup of the country everywhere else, white people did not go out to see this one at only roughly 1/3 of the audience in attendance. Hispanics came out and were nearly 40% of the audience in the states on Opening Weekend.
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"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon
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Tuesday, May 27, 2025 11:32 PM
Quote:On one hand, Mission Impossible [2025], has worldwide box office of 0.5 times production budget.
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Shut the fuck up.
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"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon
On the other hand, a live action version of Disney cartoon from 2002 has worldwide box office of 4.2 times production budget.
Maybe audiences do NOT want to pay to see billionaire Tom Cruise indulge in his hobby of being a semi-pro stuntman. For example, nobody pays multi-billionaire Jeff Bezos to indulge in his hobby of being a semi-pro astronaut. His company, Blue Origin, pays. Tom Cruise's company should pay, not movie audiences.
Mission: Impossible (2025)
https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Mission-Impossible-The-Final-Reckoni
ng-(2025)#tab=summary
Lilo & Stitch (2025)
https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Lilo-and-Stitch-(2025)#tab=summary
Lilo & Stitch (2002)
https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Lilo-and-Stitch#tab=summary
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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Thursday, May 29, 2025 2:52 AM
So Thunderbolts seems to have caught Nu Captain America or its at least right on the heels of Captain America Brave New World
so maybe $410+ ?
Lilo & Stitch is strong, a kids animation
Final Destination Bloodlines 2025 is doing ok, it has a Budget $50 million, the Original Final Destination had a Budget of around $20 million
$23.0M internationally this weekend. Estimated international total stands at $92.5M.
https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/32977-final-destination-blood
lines/page/2/#comments
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Thursday, May 29, 2025 4:52 AM
The Latest ‘Mission Impossible’ Is a Movie That Missed the Vibe Shift
https://chroniclesmagazine.org/web/the-latest-mission-impossible-is-a-
movie-that-missed-the-vibe-shift/
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"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon
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Thursday, May 29, 2025 10:53 PM
April 27th:
Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
-44% drop for the weekend. $22,720,000.
Worldwide Total after Weekend 4: $816,567,000
It wrapped up Weekend 3 with $695,526,515, or $121 Million for the week.
Let's be super conservative and say it only drops -40% week to week from here on out...
Weekend 5: $889 Million (+72 Million)
Weekend 6: $932 Million (+43 Million)
Weekend 7: $957 Million (+26 Million)
Weekend 8: $972 Million (+15 Million)
Weekend 9: $981 Million (+9 Million)
Weekend 10: $986 Million (+5 Million)
Weekend 11: $989 Million (+3 Million)
Weekend 12: $991 Million (+2 Million)
It gets close if we give it 3 full months and straight -40% drops from here on out.
But I don't see either of those scenarios playing out, let alone both of them.
Weekend 8 + 3 Days: $940 Million Worldwide
https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Minecraft-Movie-A-(2025)#tab=box-off
ice
They're behind schedule.
$230k domestic on Wednesday.
Minecraft will not be a $1 Billion movie. Most likely not even if you were rounding up since it's still about $10 Million short of being able to do that with the $1 days far behind it at this point.
But at $940 Million worldwide, that's up in the air. I could easily see Bruce pull $10+ Million out from under the international couch cushions with a number that big.
It still did $300 Million better than the high end of my original prediction. Congrats on the win regardless.
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"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon
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