2025 Wide Release Prediction Game Thread
POSTED BY: 6ixStringJack
UPDATED: Tuesday, April 28, 2026 17:16
VIEWED: 30539
PAGE 10 of 53
Wait a minute...
Jack Black's A Minecraft Movie Beats His Super Mario Bros. Movie to Set New Box Office Record
https://people.com/jack-black-minecraft-movie-beats-super-mario-bros-b
ox-office-opening-11710286
This article and any article saying anything similar is an outright lie. This never happened. This is simply more media gaslighting and numbers manipulation.
These articles all claim that Minecraft made $157 Million and the Super Mario Bros Movie only made $146 Million on opening weekend.
But here's the lie...
Super Mario Bros. Movie's 3-Day haul: $146,361,865. This is the numbers for Friday, Saturday and Sunday (April 7-9th, 2023). This number does NOT include what it got on Thursday, because SMB was officially released on Wednesday night and did not have what would generally be considered a Thursday Preview night, which is always added into Friday's total.
Why is this a problem?
Because while SMB doesn't have the $26,566,130 that it grossed on April 6th, 2020, what would have been a typical Thursday Night Preview, Minecraft gets to add its own $10,550,000 Preview Thursday night as we usually do for a 4-day total and SMB gets screwed here.
The real results can be looked at one of two ways here...
1. Remove the $10,550,000 preview thursday number for Minecraft and give a straight 3-day total for each movie.
That leaves us with $152,203,003 opening for Minecraft vs. $146,361,865 for SMB. (The article is outdated and Minecraft made actually made $162 Million+, and not $157 Million).
In that instance, Minecraft still wins by almost $6 Million, but not by $16 Million.
2. Add back the Thursday for Super Mario Bros., which I think is the correct solution, since nearly all movies in the last few years not released on a holiday weekend other than Super Mario Bros and Top Gun II with their early Wednesday releases have had preview Thursday numbers added.
If you add the $26,566,130 SMB made on Thursday, now you've got $162,753,003 for Minecraft with the Thursday night added back in, but you have $172,927,995 for Super Mario Bros.
The Super Mario Bros. movie generated $10 Million more in the same time frame that the Minecraft movie counts get.
But wait... There's more...
We haven't talked about inflation yet...
Although it was only 2 years of inflation, the $172,927,995 that Super Mario Bros made Thursday-Sunday on opening weekend is worth $181,089,098.53 in 2025, which means it actually beat Minecraft by nearly $20 Million when both movies have Thursday included and inflation is calculated in.
Even if you remove Preview Thursday from both movies, Minecraft still loses by just over $1 Million once inflation is calculated in since the $146,361,865 that SMB made in 3 days is actually worth $153,269,215.85 in 2025.
Any way you look at it unless your intent is to be disingenuous, Super Mario Bros. did NOT lose to Minecraft last weekend.
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"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon
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And because of those truths above finally ironed out, my prediction for $650 Million max becomes even more sound than it already was. Once we found out that Minecraft did not in fact beat Super Mario Bros on opening weekend and then we just discovered today that Minecraft's first Monday was just less than half of what SMB did on their first Monday. (A comparison with no inflation calculated in. Just the straight numbers from each day).
I've said that I won't have a real solid prediction on this one until after we know what the 2nd weekend drop is, but knowing all that I know right now I will make a firm statement that Minecraft will not breach $1 Billion worldwide, like many analysts are now predicting, no matter how well it does.
The one benefit it does have over SMB is that the numbers that it makes today have no inflation adjustment, it's got just short of a 5% edge on every dollar it makes compared to what SMB had to make to reach nearly $1.4 Billion. In other words, the US dollar buys just under 5% less than it did 2 years ago.
That's not going to be enough to change anything outside of any close races it has in its future, but it is enough that it shouldn't be discounted. For every $1 Million that Super Mario made, Minecraft would need to make $1,047,194 to stay even if we were including inflation every step of the way. But that's not how Hollywood or the media report anything, so Minecraft does have that near 5% edge here, 2 years later.
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"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon
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Early indicators that despite the "unexpected" success of Minecraft, it's not going to be doing anything close to Super Mario Bros by the end.
https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons/Minecraft-Movie-
A-(2025)/Super-Mario-Bros-Movie-The-(2022)#tab=day_by_day_comparison
First Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday numbers for both movies...
Super Mario: $20,110,945 / $15,459,585 / $10,757,435
Minecraft: $9,927,119 / $12,763,670 / $7,758,325
Minecraft's number isn't done rising by a long shot, but it will lose momentem and drop off to a flat line quite a bit before SMB did.
At least for now, $650 Million worldwide still sounds correct to me.
EDITED TO ADD: It should also be noted that Super Mario had a 156 day run in the theaters. Though I don't expect WB to do something stupid like put this on streaming after only 30 or 45 days while it was still making a good buck for them in the theaters, I don't expect Minecraft to be in the theaters more than 90 days max.
That's really just a side-note though, since in the last 60 or so days Mario only grossed around $2 Million domestically. It was probably done more as a courtesy to fans who wanted to see it for the 8th time than anything else, and just speaks to how bad the box office was in 2023 that there wasn't anything else showing that would have been a more lucrative movie to show.
I'm sure if mega-plex cinemas didn't exist, SMB wouldn't have been playing on the 16th screen tucked all the way in the back and wouldn't have gotten more than 90 days anywhere.
I won't pretend to know the deep ins and outs about the business or exactly how movie profits are handled, or the contracts for when a theater gets a higher or lower percentage of the tickets and when that triggers. We'll probably never know any of that. But looking at the SMB domestic run, I think even despite that movie's success one could argue that it didn't need to be in theaters more than 45 days. By Day 45 it had already grossed $541.8 Million. On day 156, it had $575 Million.
Everything post 45 days there is better than a lot of small movies would make in that time, so I can see the argument for it. It's just when I look at the last few weeks it was hanging on in the end I don't see any financial reason for the decision not to remove it much earlier. Hardly seems worth keeping the lights on and the theater heated at those grosses, let alone paying staff and all the other overhead. But I guess when you're AMC and you have 32 screens with half of them being empty 90% of the time, you just show anything you already got the deal made for even when nobody's there to watch it.
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"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon
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Before squandering money on taking your children to the movies, watch A Minecraft Movie (2025) on your TV:
A.Minecraft.Movie.2025.1080p.TeleSync.Brighter.Version.X264.COLLECTiVE
Bittorrent Link: 0C11720BC7D348B531517C7B96B0D66325592B5F
https://x1337x.cc/torrent/6377783/A-Minecraft-Movie-2025-1080p-TeleSyn
c-Brighter-Version-X264-COLLECTiVE/ <-- the final / is necessary to avoid a 404 error.
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Before squandering money on taking your children to the movies, watch A Minecraft Movie (2025) on your TV:
HD copy of this movie was leaked before opening night and people still came out to see this one, and didn't see your Snow White.
Shut up, retard.
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"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon
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James Cameron adjusting to a world where half of his theater audience stays home to watch his movies for free on TV:
James Cameron Says Blockbuster Movies Can Only Survive if We ‘Cut the Cost in Half’
Apr 9, 2025 2:22pm PT
https://variety.com/2025/film/news/james-cameron-blockbuster-movies-ai
-cut-costs-1236365081/
“And it’s not just hypothetical,” he continued. “If we want to continue to see the kinds of movies that I’ve always loved and that I like to make and that I will go to see — ‘Dune,’ ‘Dune: Part Two,’ or one of my films or big effects-heavy, CG-heavy films — we’ve got to figure out how to cut the cost of that in half. Now that’s not about laying off half the staff and at the effects company. That’s about doubling their speed to completion on a given shot, so your cadence is faster and your throughput cycle is faster, and artists get to move on and do other cool things and then other cool things, right? That’s my sort of vision for that.”
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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Nothing I haven't said a thousand times before.
Looking forward to finally closing the book on Cameron after his upcoming huge failure.
... Because he will not heed his own advice and The Smurfs in 3D III will end up being the most expensive movie ever made.
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Minecraft hit $200 Million today.
Maybe we should start a list of how many Disney movies put out in the last 5 years that it ends up beating?
Obviously, it beat Snow White. The Marvels didn't crack $200 Million so if we're not including inflation (as the media never does), it's already beat The Marvels too.
Likely next up is Blacktain Anti-America.
Oh, wait... I forgot that Blacktain already outgrossed Indy 5 by quite a bit.
We've probably got another half dozen to count before Minecraft spanks Blactain too.
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"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon
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Here's a good list of recent Disney failures and their final worldwide gross to start with...
Turning Red (2022): $12,271,142
The New Mutants (2020): $47,535,251
Mulan (2020): $69,973,540
Strange World (2022): $74,741,679
Haunted Mansion (2023): $117,449,790
A Wrinkle In Time (2018): $133,214,549
Onward (2020): $133,357,601
The Marvels (2023): $199,706,250
Jungle Cruise (2021): $210,469,803
Lightyear: (2022): $218,878,024
Wish (2023): $237,954,897
MINECRAFT (2025): $351,061,733
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (2023): $383,963,057
Solo (2018): $393,151,347
Blacktain Anti-America (2025): $413,120,592
Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania (2023): $476,073,180
...
Yup. Looks like we're coming for you next, Indy 5.
I'll have to update this with larger Disney flops shortly.
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"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon
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April 8th:
Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Like I said. It will do well, but I hope nobody at Warner Bros'. was expecting a $1.5 Billion surprise out of this one.
At least until weekend 2 numbers coming out, I'm still going with $650 worldwide max. If the numbers drop 50% or more everywhere, I'll already be right. If they drop less than that, this might be interesting.
Either way, it's still making at least a few hundred million for WB.
Bruce predicts 63% drop on weekend 2, or $60 Million. Variety has $60 million on the low end, to $82 Million, or 52.23%.
To which they add...
Quote:
Even if A Minecraft Movie makes $60 million to $70 million in its second weekend in North American theaters, the film is surely on its way to profitability.
Yes. There is zero question about whether or not this film will be profitable. That was already determined on opening weekend. The only thing that would have stopped that from happening is if it saw an -80% drop on weekend two like some of Disney's larger flops have seen in the last 5 years, and that would have had to have been matched the last week for the international numbers too. And though only half as large as Super Mario Bros first Monday was, you could tell from the business that Minecraft did during the week that there was never going to be anything close to an -80% dip on weekend two. So people who actually know what's going on here (unlike chronic TDS suffering Variety "journalists") already knew this film would be profitable by the time we saw Friday's numbers from opening night.
Minecraft needs $425 Million to break even. The numbers don't show it yet, but it's already got that with the international box office from Monday through Friday that is still unreported on top of the $371 Million worldwide it sits at currently. The US box office alone should get it to around $415 Million this weekend, possibly hitting that magical break even number if it does the high end of what Variety is predicting.
Once the International numbers for Monday through Sunday come in, Minecraft should have made no less than $50 Million profit for WB by EOD Sunday, however, it's much more likely to be closer to $150 Million profit by then.
And if it actually manages to hit $575 Million worldwide by the end of weekend two, than they're going to do better than my original high-end prediction of $650 Million. Though it will fall significantly and fast after the third week if it holds up like most movies that aren't hated do, it's still got at least one more week and good weekend to make some real profit here before those numbers start getting too small to really matter anymore. 4th weekend, while small by comparison should still be a significant addition, especially after the 4th weekend international numbers come in too. If they can manage $575 Million and all they'd need is $75 more million to beat my high-end prediction after weekend 2, they shouldn't have any problems with that. No way this thing makes a Billion though. It will fall well short of those predicitons.
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"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon
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