2025 Wide Release Prediction Game Thread

POSTED BY: 6ixStringJack
UPDATED: Tuesday, April 28, 2026 17:16
VIEWED: 30539
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I'm really interested to see this Minecraft movie play out.

I have absolutely zero expectations or predictions for it. I don't really know if the media does either since I've seen projections from $600 Million to over $1 Billion worldwide.


I'm really not so sure of that though...

What is the underlying "story" of Minecraft? I never played it, but it's been big enough for long enough for me to have heard about it over the years.

I think it's really nothing more than a few highly-addictive yet simple gameplay loops, and if there is any real story associated with it, it's just a bare-bones deal. People weren't playing this game for a decade because of the story. It was those addictive loops that brought a steady stream of low-dose dopamine hits that kept people coming back for more. I could tell that was the case just from watching a little bit of gameplay here or there and I stayed FAR away from it because even though it appealed mostly to kids I could easily see myself getting trapped in those gameplay loops like I've done before in games like Torchlight II, where I played several hundred hours beyond finishing the "story" and just literally KILLING time by upgrading things that didn't need to be upgraded anymore and trying to 100% a game that would have taken me another 400 hours to complete if I didn't somehow break free of the loop and the Sunk Cost Fallacy that I had to overcome to leave after wasting all that time.

But kind of like the Borderlands movie, I think this one is just coming out way too late. I'm pretty sure a lot of the kids that grew up playing Minecraft have moved on to bigger and better games by now. More mature content with better graphics and an edgy backdrop, but full of new-and-improved addictive gameplay loops.

I'd say that most of the people who played Minecraft enough to want to see this movie are also not old enough yet to really have any kids old enough to want to see this in the theater yet, so it's also coming out too early at the same time. They won't be getting any Nostalgia bump from adults out of it.


I'd guess that anybody saying this movie is going to make a Billion or more is just nuts.

Forbes: ‘Minecraft’ Movie Reviews Are In, And A Billion Dollar Haul Is Nigh

https://www.forbes.com/sites/paultassi/2025/04/03/minecraft-movie-revi
ews-are-in-and-a-billion-dollar-haul-is-nigh/



And I'm wondering if it can actually make the low-end predictions of $600 Million that I'm seeing too.

Everybody in the world knows who the Mario Bros. are, and that movie made $1.36 Billion a few years back. Who would you even know besides maybe a teenage or 20-something nephew who could name a single character in Minecraft. (Assuming that named characters are even a thing in this game).


There's no way that it's going to do Borderlands levels of bad. Not even close to that.

But can it justify the $150 Million budget?

$375 Million to break even.

It's far less than the lowest worldwide predictions I've seen out there, so unless everybody has just lost the ability to predict which way the wind is blowing on everything in 2025 entirely, I think it should at least make $375 Million without any problems.


Variety is predicting $65 Million opener here and $135-$150 worldwide opening.

https://variety.com/2025/film/news/a-minecraft-movie-box-office-openin
g-weekend-projection-1236354645/

That is nowhere NEAR the territory you need to get $1 Billion.

Dune 2 made $182.5 million on opening weekend. That ended up making $714 Million worldwide.

Super Mario Bros. made $375 million on opening weekend. That ended up making $1.359 Billion.

Ya see... There's patterns here you can figure out pretty easily when looking at something long enough...

Dune 2 made roughly half of what SMB made on opening weekend, and it finished off roughly with half of the worldwide box office that SMB got.

Now that isn't always going to be the

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So its April and your typical Hollyweird action 'block buster' big studio film can barely move past 50 Million ...Hollywood is dead?

Budgets can be as high as 250 Million, sometimes they even spend billion on combined production projects, big overseas companies like Sony might also suffer

One of Them Days $50 million, Paddington in Peru $45 million,
Death of a Unicorn $5 million!
Mickey 17 Warner Bros $44 million, The Monkey $39 million, Den of Thieves 2 Pantera Lionsgate $36 million, Heart Eyes $30 million,
The Last Showgirl $4 million, Wolf Man Universal $20 million, Novocaine Paramount $19 million
compared to the other crap is the Disney/Marvel hit on Captain America that bad

however there is worse, last years comicbook flops...Snow White seems terrible


Overseas

Japan Box Office
Wknd 28-30 ( Spring Break )
https://x.com/Franspeech/status/1906349369227452572#m
1 #Doraemon44 $2.7M/$19.35M (+16%)
2 #Wicked $1.6M/$14.8M ( -10%)
3 #Mickey17 $800K
4 #SnowWhite $720K /$3.8M (42%)
5 #Yamada999_movie $600K

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Quote:

---

Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:
So its April and your typical Hollyweird action 'block buster' big studio film can barely move past 50 Million ...Hollywood is dead?

---

Theater ticket sales are shrinking because of streaming.

Zoe Saldaña Shows Off ‘Avatar: Fire And Ash’ At Disney’s CinemaCon

By Anthony D'Alessandro, Nancy Tartaglione | April 3, 2025 4:11pm

https://deadline.com/2025/04/avatar-fire-and-ash-first-look-1236358731/

The box office year has been sluggish, but if one movie is going to bring the industry back alive it’s James Cameron‘s Avatar: Fire and Ash on December 19.

In a taped message before Zoe Saldaña took the stage at the Las Vegas confab, Cameron said “I’m in New Zealand finishing up Avatar: Fire and Ash. I think we can agree that’s a good use of my time since this sucker’s coming at us like a freight train.”

“I hope this film can provide a shot in the arm of theater owners because we are still struggling with the one-two punch of the pandemic and streaming.”

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Quote:

---

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
I'm really interested to see this Minecraft movie play out.

I have absolutely zero expectations or predictions for it. I don't really know if the media does either since I've seen projections from $600 Million to over $1 Billion worldwide.


I'm really not so sure of that though...

What is the underlying "story" of Minecraft? I never played it, but it's been big enough for long enough for me to have heard about it over the years.

I think it's really nothing more than a few highly-addictive yet simple gameplay loops, and if there is any real story associated with it, it's just a bare-bones deal. People weren't playing this game for a decade because of the story. It was those addictive loops that brought a steady stream of low-dose dopamine hits that kept people coming back for more. I could tell that was the case just from watching a little bit of gameplay here or there and I stayed FAR away from it because even though it appealed mostly to kids I could easily see myself getting trapped in those gameplay loops like I've done before in games like Torchlight II, where I played several hundred hours beyond finishing the "story" and just literally KILLING time by upgrading things that didn't need to be upgraded anymore and trying to 100% a game that would have taken me another 400 hours to complete if I didn't somehow break free of the loop and the Sunk Cost Fallacy that I had to overcome to leave after wasting all that time.

But kind of like the Borderlands movie, I think this one is just coming out way too late. I'm pretty sure a lot of the kids that grew up playing Minecraft have moved on to bigger and better games by now. More mature content with better graphics and an edgy backdrop, but full of new-and-improved addictive gameplay loops.

I'd say that most of the people who played Minecraft enough to want to see this movie are also not old enough yet to really have any kids old enough to want to see this in the theater yet, so it's also coming out too early at the same time. They won't be getting any Nostalgia bump from adults out of it.


I'd guess that anybody saying this movie is going to make a Billion or more is just nuts.

Forbes: ‘Minecraft’ Movie Reviews Are In, And A Billion Dollar Haul Is Nigh

https://www.forbes.com/sites/paultassi/2025/04/03/minecraft-movie-revi
ews-are-in-and-a-billion-dollar-haul-is-nigh/



And I'm wondering if it can actually make the low-end predictions of $600 Million that I'm seeing too.

Everybody in the world knows who the Mario Bros. are, and that movie made $1.36 Billion a few years back. Who would you even know besides maybe a teenage or 20-something nephew who could name a single character in Minecraft. (Assuming that named characters are even a thing in this game).


There's no way that it's going to do Borderlands levels of bad. Not even close to that.

But can it justify the $150 Million budget?

$375 Million to break even.

It's far less than the lowest worldwide predictions I've seen out there, so unless everybody has just lost the ability to predict which way the wind is blowing on everything in 2025 entirely, I think it should at least make $375 Million without any problems.


Variety is predicting $65 Million opener here and $135-$150 worldwide opening.

https://variety.com/2025/film/news/a-minecraft-movie-box-office-openin
g-weekend-projection-1236354645/

That is nowhere NEAR the territory you need to get $1 Billion.

Dune 2 made $182.5 million on opening weekend. That ended up making $714 Million worldwide.

Super Mario Bros. made $375 million on opening weekend. That ended up making $1.359 Billion.

Ya see... There's patterns here you can figure out pretty easily when looking at something long enough...

Dune 2 made roughly half of what SMB made on opening weekend, and it finished off roughly with half of the worldwide box office that SMB got

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