The Hunger Games Prequel Failure Thread
POSTED BY: 6ixStringJack
UPDATED: Monday, December 25, 2023 00:02
VIEWED: 5249
PAGE 4 of 6
Well... Besides the soft-ish opening, especially when compared to the original quadrilogy, S&S certainly isn't exhibiting flopish behavior.
As I said yesterday, without any international numbers since Sunday, it crossed the 50% threshold it needed to be halfway there to breaking even.
We'll see how it actually does on the 2nd weekend, but so far it's embarrassing Disney not once, but twice in its 7 Day run.
Songbirds & Snakes pulls in another $5.9 Million for a 1st Place on Thanksgiving, while Disney's Wish pulls in only $3.9 Million for 3rd Place behind Napoleon's $4.375 Million.
I'm going to hate seeing this one break even, but the cost of admission here is probably worth it.
Rachel Zegler's big dumb mouth is one of the latest reasons that Disney is getting hammered so hard by the average consumer, and yet, at the same time, the first and only movie out of the first four starring roles she had that might break even will break even simply because Disney can't put out an even halfway-successful movie around Thanksgiving in 2023 in not one but two VERY EXPENSIVE attempts.
In any other year but 2023 there is zero chance that an Hunger Games prequel to an 8 year dormant franchise would have stood a chance in between an $275 Million MCU flick and a $200 Million / 100th Anniversary Disney animated feature.
This is just getting silly now.
I can't wait to update the Disney Failure Thread this weekend. 
ETA: I have to add both The Creator and Next Goal Wins to the Disney thread, and go back through the movie list and see if there were any others that I missed.
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$11.4M projected on Friday for only a -40% drop and 1st place above Napoleon at $8.35M and Wish at $8M.
Disney's back-to-back massive failures are almost certainly going to make S&S break even and make a few bucks at this point. With 2 days left to go on the 2nd weekend and without any international updates since Sunday, S&S already has 137% of the Production Budget. I imagine it will be over 200% by the time the Domestic Weekend is over and the new international money is counted.
Something seriously drastic would have to happen now for S&S to be considered a loser on the 2.5x RoT scale (such as finding out that the international audience just walked away by the 2nd weekend), and with no new possible competition until Wonka comes out on the 15th I really don't see that happening.
It probably won't break even after only 3 weekends, but unless there's a major shift I'd imagine it breaks even somewhere during weekend 4.
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Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Disney's back-to-back massive failures are almost certainly going to make S&S break even and make a few bucks at this point. With 2 days left to go on the 2nd weekend and without any international updates since Sunday, S&S already has 137% of the Production Budget. I imagine it will be over 200% by the time the Domestic Weekend is over and the new international money is counted.
Something seriously drastic would have to happen now for S&S to be considered a loser on the 2.5x RoT scale (such as finding out that the international audience just walked away by the 2nd weekend), and with no new possible competition until Wonka comes out on the 15th I really don't see that happening.
It probably won't break even after only 3 weekends, but unless there's a major shift I'd imagine it breaks even somewhere during weekend 4.
$28,820,000 projected for Weekend 2 in the US (The 3-Day, not the 5-Day). I'm hearing people say that it is a record low 2nd weekend drop for 2023. I'd have to do a lot of work to verify or prove that claim false, but I do have to admit that I don't believe can recall a movie that I've tracked in 2023 that dropped only -35% from the first weekend.
The international money came in too, and while neither of them quite doubled from opening weekend, it was close. The worldwide total now is $197,270,000. If the projections were lowballed it is probably over $200 Million. The Domestic lowball will be corrected by tomorrow, but because of the nature of Internationals we'll never know for sure.
So Songbirds and Snakes has now made 197% of its Production Budget back in only 10 days.
I'm eating crow for the creation of this thread now and officially certifying this Not A Flop.
I still stand by my prior prediction that we won't see this break even by next weekend, but it will probably be pretty close. If it sees another -35% drop next weekend both Domestic and International, it will already be a winner by then, but this was the holiday weekend here in the states, and typically the 7 days after Opening Weekend Internationally is pretty close to 100% of the Opening Weekend, which is what happened here.
My guess is that by the time Weekend 4 starts, it will already be over 250% and every penny it makes will be profit.
Rachel Zegler's like a frenemy now. She's destroying Disney whether she's a part of the production or not.
But yeah... See what I mean here?
I saw very early warning signs that this was going to break even and make money, all the way back when we found out it had a $100 Million budget. The colossal flop of The Marvels with the largest 2nd week drop of a comic book movie ever all but sealed the deal here. Now that Wish is going to take 3rd place this weekend and didn't give any competition at all, Rachel gets her first movie that wasn't a box office flop.
I may be eating a small dish of crow here, but all those rage-bait YouTube jagoffs I mentioned before are going to be eating a buffet of crow.
Oh... who am I kidding? They're going to pretend like Songbirds and Snakes never existed and move right on to Wish.
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Yeah. $197,490,423 after 10 days worldwide, with a virtual 50/50 split.
https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Hunger-Games-The-The-Ballad-of-Songb
irds-and-Snakes-(2023)#tab=box-office
This one is probably going to easily clear $300 Million worldwide because of back-to-back Disney flops. It could even reach $350 Million if nothing else competes with it for the rest of the year. They're already calling Aquaman 2 a flop, so we'll see.
It will make nowhere near the level of money any of the originals made, but they're already saying that it will make enough that they'll make a sequel to it.
I think that's probably ill advised, but it wouldn't be a worse idea than making Expendables 5.
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It's all like picking low-hanging fruit at this point.
I almost feel bad about making the Aquaman 2 failure thread, like I'm kicking a dead horse. I don't feel that way when I'm laughing about Disney's failures, but I don't think that WB was anywhere close to the level of attempted en masse social reprogramming that Disney has been engaging in.
I'm actually glad that S&S is going to be a winner out of this at Disney's expense. They can't ALL be losers simultaneously, and if S&S was a loser too, that would have just translated into less debt at the Box Office for Disney at the end of the year.
This incorrect prediction will keep me on my toes.
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Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
It's all like picking low-hanging fruit at this point.
I almost feel bad about making the Aquaman 2 failure thread, like I'm kicking a dead horse. I don't feel that way when I'm laughing about Disney's failures, but I don't think that WB was anywhere close to the level of attempted en masse social reprogramming that Disney has been engaging in.
I'm actually glad that S&S is going to be a winner out of this at Disney's expense. They can't ALL be losers simultaneously, and if S&S was a loser too, that would have just translated into less debt at the Box Office for Disney at the end of the year.
This incorrect prediction will keep me on my toes.
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Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.
This flick wasn't seen as 'woke' slop, the reason most people wanted it to tank was because one of it's stars is a douche. This flick isn't going to come anywhere near a billion $ at the B.O.
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Quote:
Originally posted by whozit:Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
It's all like picking low-hanging fruit at this point.
I almost feel bad about making the Aquaman 2 failure thread, like I'm kicking a dead horse. I don't feel that way when I'm laughing about Disney's failures, but I don't think that WB was anywhere close to the level of attempted en masse social reprogramming that Disney has been engaging in.
I'm actually glad that S&S is going to be a winner out of this at Disney's expense. They can't ALL be losers simultaneously, and if S&S was a loser too, that would have just translated into less debt at the Box Office for Disney at the end of the year.
This incorrect prediction will keep me on my toes.
This flick wasn't seen as 'woke' slop, the reason most people wanted it to tank was because one of it's stars is a douche. This flick isn't going to come anywhere near a billion $ at the B.O.
Yeah. I totally wanted it to fail because of her, but we can't always get what we want.
I don't think Lionsgate is particularly known for putting out woke drek, so it doesn't surprise me to hear that despite her casting it's not being considered woke. I mean, it's not as if Lionsgate was at fault for that casting. According to the Internets, casting for the movie was all the way back in June of 2022, long before anybody outside of the cast of West Side Story's remake even knew her name.
If it actually isn't woke, there's a 50/50 chance this movie was even better than John Wick 4, despite Rachel's casting. I HATED John Wick 4. The only good JW movies were the first two, but you can't even watch the 2nd one a second time because it's part of that 3 movie arc that concludes with 4.
After the financial success of JW4, Lionsgate has taken a beating this year. Before the PB and WW Gross of S&S is factored in, Lionsgate was already in the red $159,892,230 as of 10/31/2023. (And I don't know if any other LG films had made more money against that deficit going into S&S until I update all my lists).
I don't want to see Lionsgate fail. I have no particular grotch against the studio.
If there was no other movies they had in theaters, it's not likely they're going to end the year breaking even based only on Songbirds and Snakes worldwide box office, but every dollar they make above $250 Million will chip away at that $160 Million deficit for the year.
It could have been a lot worse for them, especially after Expendables 4.
Plus, a REAL bright side here for Lionsgate is that they never went the Disney-Dumb route and made a Lionsgate+ streaming service. So they get to license all of these movies including their flops to other streaming services like Netflix and Amazon and actually make money on the back end instead of showing it on their own streaming service that loses hundreds of millions of dollars every quarter.
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Songbirds & Snakes took a -50% hit this weekend from last.
That only looks bad on paper though compared to its abnormally low -35% 2nd weekend drop and Bruce's terrible prediction that it was going to make nearly $7 Million more than it did this weekend with only a -27% drop from last weekend. (That was really an insane prediction to make buddy). -50% isn't bad... Especially on a weekend with 4 new wide releases.
Without the international numbers in yet, it's at $221.3 Million, or 221% of its Production Budget.
I actually expect this movie to clear the $250 Million it needed to break even once the international numbers roll in. It's a full week of new money, and I doubt that the Beyonce concert thing dug into its international profits as much as it did in the US this weekend.
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Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Songbirds & Snakes took a -50% hit this weekend from last.
That only looks bad on paper though compared to its abnormally low -35% 2nd weekend drop and Bruce's terrible prediction that it was going to make nearly $7 Million more than it did this weekend with only a -27% drop from last weekend. (That was really an insane prediction to make buddy). -50% isn't bad... Especially on a weekend with 4 new wide releases.
Without the international numbers in yet, it's at $221.3 Million, or 221% of its Production Budget.
I actually expect this movie to clear the $250 Million it needed to break even once the international numbers roll in. It's a full week of new money, and I doubt that the Beyonce concert thing dug into its international profits as much as it did in the US this weekend.
Well the Beyonce thing didn't touch Songbirds & Snakes, since the Beyonce thing only did $5.5 Million Internationally.
It doesn't appear that anything else did either unless it was the boyfriends' turn to drag the girlfriends' to the movie they wanted to see this weekend and watch Godzilla Minus One which did twice Internationally what it did in the US.
In any event, I should have been paying more attention to my prior posts on this movie before saying that it should have 250% by the end of the weekend.
Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack (November 25th):
It probably won't break even after only 3 weekends, but unless there's a major shift I'd imagine it breaks even somewhere during weekend 4.
Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack (November 26th):
I still stand by my prior prediction that we won't see this break even by next weekend, but it will probably be pretty close. If it sees another -35% drop next weekend both Domestic and International, it will already be a winner by then, but this was the holiday weekend here in the states, and typically the 7 days after Opening Weekend Internationally is pretty close to 100% of the Opening Weekend, which is what happened here.
My guess is that by the time Weekend 4 starts, it will already be over 250% and every penny it makes will be profit.
It's at $243.6 Million right now after the internationals came in. Since it only made $8.1 Million during the week in the US last week, chances that it would make the $6.4 Million it needs to hit $250 Million are about zero. So my first prediction from November 25th was the correct one, and we'll see it hit $250 Million either Friday or Saturday night depending how big the drops are this week.
It's also maintained its virtual 50/50 Domestic/International split that it's seen since the beginning, pulling away just slightly to a $1.8 Million International lead. I think I was grossly overestimating either the impact that Beyonce's thing had here, or the lack of impact it was going to have overseas.
Any chances S&S had of grossing $350 Million are gone now, but it could still hit $300 Million if it keeps its legs and is in theaters long enough.
Two days ago I would have said that despite its surprise performance it was never going to catch up to Five Nights at Freddy's, but FNAF mysteriously lost $8 Million yesterday, dropping from $299 Million+ to only $291 Million+. If that money isn't added back to FNAF and the international run is just about done, S&S could probably end up beating FNAF.
That would be silly. I don't imagine that 2 months ago anybody was predicting that out of The Marvels, Wish and S&S the only one that would gross more worldwide than FNAF was going to be this one.
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Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack (November 25th):
It probably won't break even after only 3 weekends, but unless there's a major shift I'd imagine it breaks even somewhere during weekend 4.
Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack (November 26th):
I still stand by my prior prediction that we won't see this break even by next weekend, but it will probably be pretty close. If it sees another -35% drop next weekend both Domestic and International, it will already be a winner by then, but this was the holiday weekend here in the states, and typically the 7 days after Opening Weekend Internationally is pretty close to 100% of the Opening Weekend, which is what happened here.
My guess is that by the time Weekend 4 starts, it will already be over 250% and every penny it makes will be profit.
It did break even three days before Weekend 4 started.
Some international money must have been added for last week since my last post, because if you subtract the daily amounts that S&S has made for the week, it appears to have broken even at $250 Million on Tuesday, December 5th.
It currently stands at $255,806,535 worldwide after Friday's $2.7 Million projection, so it's already profited over $5 Million and everything else it makes now is gravy.
https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Hunger-Games-The-The-Ballad-of-Songb
irds-and-Snakes-(2023)#tab=box-office
Songbirds and Snakes... Officially not a flop as of 4 days ago.
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