Hollywood's Abysmal 2023 in Numbers
POSTED BY: 6ixStringJack
UPDATED: Friday, August 2, 2024 09:17
VIEWED: 13031
PAGE 13 of 25
They now officially admit DC and Marvel are flopping
Dave Rubin on why ‘The Marvels’ flopped at the box office
https://www.skynews.com.au/opinion/paul-murray/dave-rubin-on-why-the-m
arvels-flopped-at-the-box-office/video/c7c8ba32a8fcf45ce68ea1a39184cea8
‘Ms. Marvel’ star responds to ‘The Marvels’ box office flop
https://www.nme.com/news/film/ms-marvel-star-responds-to-the-marvels-b
ox-office-flop-3544579
News is Reporting Takings ‘Napoleon’ Makes $3 Million in Previews, ‘Wish’ Follows With $2.3 Million
also report Disney’s ‘Wish’ Grosses $8.3 Million, Apple’s ‘Napoleon’ Earns $7.7 Million
'Napoleon' is a hit with the box office but not with all critics
https://uk.style.yahoo.com/napoleon-hit-box-office-not-165940248.html
Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
$28-$32 Million Domestic for a 5-day weekend is already a death sentence for Napoleon unless everybody else in the world goes out to see it like crazy.
I'm not sure but the USA numbers for The Friday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday and Tuesday seem to be worse than Dungeons & Dragons Honor Among Thieves 2023, Dungeons and Dragon had a Budget $150 million, there were no big buck extras made in downloads or T-Shiorts or no big DVD sales after the cinema they said Dungeons and Dragons was mostly falling short of its break-even point.
A lot of entertainment people say the Thanksgiving Weekend is a Boost of Sales
the field is crowded, its back to the royal rumble days on a crowded arena, the Nun thing, Wish, Five Nights at Freddy's movie, Killers of the Flower Moon, the Taylor Swift thing are still making money...it might not be a lot of money but maybe it will be enough to eat the Napoleon profits? not sure about overseas, Russia has sanctions, South Korea is a big market, others China, Germany, India is also big but their domestic industry is strong and it is hard for Hollywood to make money competing against Bollywood etc maybe the British and French markets are very important, Australia cinema – maybe 1 Billion to zero point 8 or $ 0. 85 Billion but it has not been the same since the Covid Lockdown and the Hollywood SJW casting
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Quote:
Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:
Sixstring seems to be better than the Weatehrman or the 401K guy on the phone...mostly
I'm probably better than any 401K manager is in the tough times like these days. I'm definitely better than any weatherman that I've ever seen... But I live around Chicago where you can have all 4 seasons in 1 day, so take that for what it's worth.
Quote:
It has been interesting to watch 6IXSTRING's predictions and forecasts once cinema movies get their release
I would say the majority of the time he gets it correct and does true predictions at anywhere between 70% to 90% of the time
sometimes his projections are almost exactly right for each week
Thank you. That's actually some pretty kind words there buddy.
Quote:
but he has got stuff wrong also
there are movies that won't follow a normal trend or do their own thing with a unique financial path due to circumstance
6IXSTRING got Barbie and Oppenheimer wrong
He is correct to predict most of the Marvel DC failures but there have been exception to the rule such as Spider-Man No Way Home
Yeah... I don't know how much anybody, including you, read my ramblings in this forum since I took an interest in it. But I do take credit for my mistakes and wrong predictions, usually as soon as I realize that I made them.
You can see me doing a LOT of that right now in the Hunger Games Prequel Failure Thread all the way back since October 30th when I found out that the budget for that movie was only $100 Million. To be fair though, all the way back on September 27th I posited correctly that nobody in their right mind at Lionsgate would have dumped $200 Million into S&S the same year that they spent only $100 Million on both John Wick 4 and the Expendables 4, so I wasn't very surprised when the $100 Million budget was announced. So between the reasonable budget and now that it's performing so well because it was sandwiched between two Disney flops that I called which are both flopping harder than I ever would have imagined it's looking more every day like my prediction that S&S will be a flop was incorrect.
This is an especially strange scenario playing out right now, and sometimes there are just too many external variables to account for. I did think that what is happening now would be a possibility all the way back on November 12th though when Whozit correctly guessed that The Marvels would tank over -60% on its 2nd weekend. I even went so far as to say that I saw people online claiming it was going to fall -75% and this flat out wasn't going to happen, only to get that one wrong too when it fell -78%. But I REALLY didn't want it to fail that hard because I knew that if it did too poorly that Songbirds and Snakes would benefit from it, and that's exactly what happened. Then the very same thing appears to be happening again this weekend with Disney's Wish failing too hard and S&S taking 1st place above Wish 3 days in a row.
What do you do when there are 3 movies in theaters simultaniously that you're rooting to fail?
I still don't think I got Barbie and Oppenheimer "wrong"... at least not as bad as the above examples, anyhow. I gave the whole Barbieheimer a roasting in their own thread and gave them a degrading thread title with my early personal opinions on both movies, but I never gave either of them their own failure threads like I have specifically done for a half-dozen or so other movies. Yeah... I'm shocked at how much both of them did. Seriously shocked. But I don't believe I ever claimed that either one of them would be failures.
Maybe it's the fact that I haven't sat through TV advertisements for about 2 decades and I'd quit watching YouTube altogether if they ever figure out a way to actually block the ad blocker software, but the mystery in my head about the whole Barbieheimer thing was that I just didn't get it. It was an insanely eff
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I wonder if Bruce is using the holiday weekend as an excuse not to make any predictions this week. I don't think I've ever seen this late on a Friday night without weekend predictions.
I don't blame him. 2023 is ending on a pretty strange note. Deserved, but strange.
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Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.
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This is not a profitable way to run a business:
The Strange $55 Million Saga of a Netflix Series You’ll Never See
After suitors flocked to a sci-fi project by Carl Rinsch, director of a single movie, the winner handed over money and control. They’re still fighting.
By John Carreyrou | Nov. 22, 2023
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/22/business/carl-rinsch-netflix-conque
st.html
Near the height of the streaming boom in the fall of 2018, a half-dozen studios and video platforms lined up to woo a little-known filmmaker named Carl Erik Rinsch. He had directed only one movie, “47 Ronin.” It was a commercial and critical dud, and Mr. Rinsch’s tussles with its producers had raised eyebrows, even in an industry where such conflicts are the norm.
(47 Ronin (2013) rated 28 on a scale of 0 to 100 https://www.metacritic.com/movie/47-ronin/
47 Ronin failed financially https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/47-Ronin )
But memories in Hollywood are short, and the demand for new content was intense. In just a decade, the number of scripted TV shows had soared from 200 to more than 500, with new streaming services from Disney, Apple and NBCUniversal on the way. Amid the feeding frenzy, the project that Mr. Rinsch was pitching — a science-fiction series about artificial humans — became a hot property.
(Movie scriptwriters like to claim they are superior to those writing for TV, but there is only one new talent pool for both, at least in the American industry, AKA "Hollywood". Expanding from 200 to 500 TV series hurts the quality of movie scripts because the pool of strong writers doesn't get bigger. Instead, confident & strong talkers but weak writers get their weak movies made. Essentially, con men talk their way into being scriptwriters, but they can't do the job.)
After a competitive auction, Mr. Rinsch and his representatives reached an informal eight-figure agreement with Amazon. But before they had a chance to put it in writing, Netflix swooped in. Cindy Holland, the company’s vice president of original content at the time, called Mr. Rinsch at home on a Sunday and dangled millions of dollars more, as well as something studios rarely gave directors: final cut.
Netflix won the deal — and would soon come to regret it.
The project with Mr. Rinsch has turned into a costly fiasco, a microcosm of the era of profligate spending that Hollywood studios now are scrambling to end. Netflix burned more than $55 million on Mr. Rinsch’s show and gave him near-total budgetary and creative latitude but never received a single finished episode.
Soon after he signed the contract, Mr. Rinsch’s behavior grew erratic, according to members of the show’s cast and crew, texts and emails reviewed by The New York Times, and court filings in a divorce case brought by his wife. He claimed to have discovered Covid-19’s secret transmission mechanism and to be able to predict lightning strikes. He gambled a large chunk of the money from Netflix on the stock market and cryptocurrencies. He spent millions of dollars on a fleet of Rolls-Royces, furniture and designer clothing.
Mr. Rinsch and Netflix are now locked in a confidential arbitration proceeding initiated by Mr. Rinsch, who claims the company breached their contract and owes him at least $14 million in damages. Netflix has denied owing Mr. Rinsch anything and has called his demands a shakedown.
It’s not uncommon for Hollywood productions to run into trouble, but a debacle of this magnitude is rare. And it has surfaced at an inopportune moment, with Hollywood under pressure from investors to cut back on lavish spending and to focus on making profits rather than adding streaming subscribers at any cost. That squeeze is only expected to intensify. Hollywood studios’ recent agreements to pay writers and actors more are likely to further pinch profits.
Mr. Rinsch declined to respond to a detailed list of questions. In a recent Instagram post, he said he did not cooperate with The Times because he expected the artic
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That dude probably belongs in prison now. Nowhere near as long as SBF will be if his appeal doesn't help him, but a few years in a white collar cell would do him good. His ex-wife shouldn't get a dime until Netflix liquidates everything they had and gets their money back first.
That's probably the most interesting story I've read of these streaming services wasting tens of millions of dollars on unproven talent for shows that may or may not even be created in the future.
Check this one out... And it's reported by Left/Center The Guardian, so given who the article is about there shouldn't be any questions about whether or not it's true.
The Guardian: The biggest new moneymaking scheme for Hollywood stars? Doing nothing
https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2023/apr/14/phoebe-waller-bri
dge-amazon-deal-fleabag
Quote:
How hard do you have to work to earn $60m in just three years? The answer, for Phoebe Waller-Bridge, at least, is not very hard at all. In 2019 the Emmy-winning creator of the hit TV show Fleabag signed a $20m-a-year deal with Amazon Studios. Originally, she was supposed to collaborate with Donald Glover on a series based on the 2005 movie Mr and Mrs Smith, but she reportedly left the show after a few months because of clashing creative styles. No worries, Amazon said, you can work on a Tomb Raider series instead. However, the Hollywood Reporter notes, since a showrunner (the person who has overall creative authority over a show) was also being hired, it’s questionable just how much work would actually be needed by the Fleabag creator. In short: Waller-Bridge has collected $60m from Amazon over the last few years without ever making a new show.
That's $5 Million more than the Mad Lad got, and she hasn't done anything for it.
Quote:
There certainly seems to be a lot of that going on lately. Waller-Bridge is far from the only creative to be being paid big bucks for doing very little. In 2020, Harry and Meghan signed a multi-year Netflix deal, worth a reported $100m. “Our focus will be on creating content that informs but also gives hope,” the couple said at the time. No doubt Netflix is hoping that, once they’re done mining their personal lives for views, they’ll come up with some decent original content. So far it’s not clear that will be the case. Their most recent output was a seven-episode series called Live to Lead – dry profiles on Greta Thunberg, Ruth Bader Ginsburg and Gloria Steinem – which was released on Netflix on 31 December with little fanfare and almost no reviews. Netflix has also cancelled Meghan’s animated series called Pearl, amid cutbacks.
That's $45 Million more than the Mad Lad got and all Netflix has gotten from them is a 7 episode series that nobody even bothered to watch.
There are a LOT of stories like this. More in this article, but all over the internet as well. Amazon and Netflix in particular have pissed away more money than we'll ever know.
They needed the writer's/actor's strike to happen. So far, because of the strikes, they've shut down 300 shows that were previously greenlit, which was a good deal more than half of the shows that were collectively on the streaming slate. With this economy and all the venture capital dried up because of the high interest rates, they're slamming the brakes hard on the spending and are presumably going to put a lot more thought into what they actually do spend their money on.
The people who actually still manage to get a job are going to make a better wage for the work, but about half of Hollywood is going to be perpetually unemployed in that industry and are going to need to find a way to pivot their degrees and experience into another line of work or they'll end up working in the service industry for minimum wage.
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Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.
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Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Oh shit...
The game has changed completely here, regarding FNAF!
My rule from the start is that I always use Bruce's Production Budget number for a movie when he has made it available before going to alternative sources such as BoxOfficeMojo or Deadline/Variety.
Bruce didn't have the PB for FNAF before, but I just noticed today that he must have added that info in and the budget according to him is only $20 Million, and not $25 Million.
https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Five-Nights-at-Freddys-(2023)#tab=su
mmary
Forget everything I said before about whether or not it beats The Super Mario Bros. Movie for 4th place because it already has.
FNAF now has a 1,450% for WW Gross vs. Production Budget.
Not only is it in 4th place, but by the end of this weekend it's easily going to take 3rd place from M3GAN (which is at 1,508%).
We're now looking at a possibility that FNAF even displaces Sound of Freedom for 2nd place. It would need a WW Gross of $342 Million to break even with SoF, and $343 Million to beat it (Assuming SoF doesn't make another $1 Million Internationally). I don't think this is a real possibility, but this movie has been nothing if not full of surprises up until this point.
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Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.
Well it's still $7 Million shy of taking 3rd place from M3GAN.
But FNAF is the movie that Bruce has been updating the international numbers twice per week in the past for whatever reason, which has only added to my chronic underestimation for this film's performance on top of all the other oddities about it like the fact it was available to stream for free on Day 1 if you had a $5.99/mo Peacock subscription.
FNAF is at 1,480% of the Production Budget right now, so it made exactly half of what it needed to pass M3GAN. If there is a 2nd international update this week like there has been in the past and it's the same amount as the Sunday update, it will be in 3rd place behind only Talk To Me and Sound of Freedom, with just about a 0% chance that there will be anything else coming out this year making it anywhere close tot the top 5 of 2023.
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Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.
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FNAF just got up to $299 Million. Not sure if that's it for internationals or not for the week.
That gets it up to 1,495%. It will beat M3GAN over the weekend either way.
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Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.
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Check your Woke Bruce... it's dangling out your fly for everyone to see again...
Weekend projections: Beyoncé powers to $21-million opening
https://www.the-numbers.com/news/255690830-Weekend-projections-Beyonce
-powers-to-21-million-opening
"Powers", huh? Yeah. Let's just forget about the fact that you predicted that it was going to make $49.9 Million over the weekend.
Bruce's predictions for the Top 10 movies this weekend was a grand total of $150,860,000.
What was reality this weekend?
$84,797,331.
So... How does Bruce sugar-coat what is probably his worst weekend predictions since he started The-Numbers?
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The bottom line is that a diverse slate of films are performing well this weekend, and making up for some notable underperformances from major studio films in recent weeks. If that’s broadening the audience of moviegoers beyond its regular demographics, that’s surely good news going into the end of the year.
You celebrate that all you'd like dude.
Meanwhile, the rest of us are getting a real kick out of watching Hollywood diversifying itself right into the poorhouse.
And also, nobody knows what the fuck you're talking about when you say that they're "making up for some notable underperformances from major studio films" either, when every single one of your predictions were far above what any of the movies actually pulled in this weekend and the combined total fell an embarrassing $66 MILLION short of what you expected.
43.71% off the mark. Even my dipshit weatherman does better than that.
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Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.
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Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
FNAF just got up to $299 Million. Not sure if that's it for internationals or not for the week.
That gets it up to 1,495%. It will beat M3GAN over the weekend either way.
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Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.
Bruce just stole $8 Million from FNAF over at the-numbers.com. It's now reading only $291,481,935.
Unfortunately, BoxOfficeMojo only has it at $286,595,570 right now, so they're not any help either.
I wonder if Disney put out some threats?
It makes no matter if they did. Neither The Marvels nor Wish will come close to $286 Million, let alone $291 Million.
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Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.
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I said in the Aquaman 2 thread I didn't think Wonka was going to do all that great.
I'm probably not wrong there...
BoxOfficePro has predicted a $32 to $42 million opening weekend and $175 to $252 Million total Domestic range.
https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-the-color-
purple-hopes-to-stand-out-over-christmas-and-new-years/
I may have noted before that I don't like how they guess their total Domestic range compared to their Opening Weekend range since quite a lot of the films they predict have a range far too high for the final total compared to the initial weekend predictions.
Wonka happens to be one of them.
I mean, just look at the predictions in the same article for Aquaman 2. The give A2 the same $32 to $42 Million opening weekend, but the final Domestic total for that film only gets $105 to $168 Million.
If Wonka only gets $42 Million to open, there's no way it's getting $175 Million in the US total, let alone $252 Million. So I don't know what they're talking about.
Word is Wonka cost $125 Million to make, so it needs to get $312.5 Million worldwide to break even.
I'm not saying that it won't make that, I just don't think that it's going to be any sort of blockbuster movie and if I were one of the heads at WB I wouldn't have green lit another Willy Wonka. And if I did, it wouldn't have gotten more than $60 Million for the budget.
Make some new shit people.
Speaking of new shit. There's a new Studio Ghibli movie coming out this weekend called The Boy and the Heron. Supposedly it's Hayao Miyazaki's last movie. Box Office Pro predicts that it will edge out Songbirds and Snakes and Beyonce's concert thing for 1st place this weekend.
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Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.
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