Hollywood's Abysmal 2023 in Numbers
POSTED BY: 6ixStringJack
UPDATED: Friday, August 2, 2024 09:17
VIEWED: 13031
PAGE 12 of 25
Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
It made $15 Million in the US and another $18 Million Worldwide this week.
That actually was a fairly sizable drop on the International front from last weekend. It may or may not have the legs it needs to take 5th place, but because of a virtual 50/50 Domestic/International split, a 1,000% finish after the monster 2nd week drop in the states is still something they should be very happy about.
FNAF at 1,044% now. It needs just 121% to beat Insidious: The Red Door for 5th place.
There must have been some stray internationals that came in late for that increase from 1,008% to 1,044% since FNAF is only getting a 4% bump for every Million with the $25 Million Production Budget and it's only made little over $1.5 Million domestic between Monday and Wednesday this week.
So this probably means an extra $7 Million or so international on top of the $18 Million international recorded on Sunday. This would be more in line with what I would expect the movie to do from the previous weekend, with somewhere in the area of a 50% to 60% drop. It's kind of hard to tell on this one since this isn't the first week it's gotten international numbers updated piecemeal.
It should probably get around another $12 Million international by next week and another $4 to $6 Million domestic by the end of the weekend, and at $277 to $280 Million it would be more than halfway where it needs to be from here to take 5th place for 2023.
There's no way it's getting 1,362% to beat The Super Mario Bros. Movie for 4th place, but considering the fact I didn't even know if it was going to clear 800 or 900% after the terrible 2nd week drop in the US, this is a really great performance for yet another indie horror flick this year.
Had they not made the nonsensical decision to stream it on Peacock in the US from day one, this thing might have beat M3GAN's 1,508% for 3rd place in 2023. That near 50/50 Domestic/International split may have been 65/35 otherwise.
But what are you gonna do? The Suits are gonna Suit.
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Killers gets bumped up to 73% this weekend. This puts it in a virtual tie with Haunted Mansion for 54th place. No sense in doing any math on that one since it's just temporary. HM isn't making anything anymore and Killers still will make money and move up. Next spot is Strays with 77% but after that it's got a Sisyphean hill to climb to reach Shazam II and Blue Beetle with 106% and 107%, respectively.
FNAF didn't manage getting the low end of my $4 to $6 Million prediction from Thursday through Sunday, but it came close with $3,855,360. If projections were just a little bit low it hits $4 Million. I'm sure that 4 new wide releases this weekend contributed to this, and it didn't help that one of them was a horror flick.
Worldwide total is now at $271,841,000, so it's now at 1088%
I'm unsure if they managed to add all the international numbers already this week or if we're going to see more down the line like we have the past few weeks here. I predicted $12 Million more international by Friday of this week, and so far this looks to be half of that $12 Million prediction. I expect to see another bump later in the week for the international numbers.
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Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack (November 17th):
FNAF at 1,044% now. It needs just 121% to beat Insidious: The Red Door for 5th place.
...
It should probably get around another $12 Million international by next week and another $4 to $6 Million domestic by the end of the weekend, and at $277 to $280 Million it would be more than halfway where it needs to be from here to take 5th place for 2023.
There's no way it's getting 1,362% to beat The Super Mario Bros. Movie for 4th place, but considering the fact I didn't even know if it was going to clear 800 or 900% after the terrible 2nd week drop in the US, this is a really great performance for yet another indie horror flick this year.
Had they not made the nonsensical decision to stream it on Peacock in the US from day one, this thing might have beat M3GAN's 1,508% for 3rd place in 2023. That near 50/50 Domestic/International split may have been 65/35 otherwise.
But what are you gonna do? The Suits are gonna Suit.
A second round of Internationals must have come in early for FNAF.
It's now sitting at $284 Million, rounding down, or 1,136% as of Monday the 20th (not including Monday's Domestic BO).
Can it hit $300 Million and outright box out The Marvels and even Songbirds and Snakes from ever catching up to it?
It cost 11 times less than The Marvels to make and 4 times less than Songbirds and Snakes (At least with the Production Budgets that Disney and Lionsgate admit to).
FNAF is now only 29% shy of overtaking Insidious: The Red Door for 5th place in 2023 (Around $8 Million). It should easily have this by some time next weekend.
At that point it only needs another $8 Million worldwide to cross $300 Million. I think it's got an excellent chance to reach this milestone.
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The choice for watching Napoleon - either the shorter version at the movies or the 4-hour-long version at home which, hopefully, expands on truncated story arcs and underdeveloped characters:
In the absence of any sense of how French society at large responded to the tumultuous era of Napoleon’s reign, the audience is stuck with two ultimately unsatisfying choices: We can marvel in extreme closeup at the dysfunctionality of its subject’s private life, or marvel in extreme long-shot at the brutality of armed conflict in the early industrial era.
The film’s biggest flaw is this lack of engagement with the political meaning of Napoleon’s outsized achievements and even more outsized failures. This isn’t some niggling complaint about historical accuracy. Director Scott is free to compress timelines and concoct colorful details to his heart’s content, but he leaves a huge storytelling opportunity on the table by not taking time to explore the intense debates that raged around the Corsican upstart in his own lifetime. Was he a revolutionary reformer or a merciless autocrat? How did he win the personal admiration even of many who opposed him politically?
I found myself hoping in vain to understand how such an obviously flawed and self-serving man as Napoleon became a hero to so many. Maybe the four-hour-long director’s cut, which is scheduled to be released on Apple TV+ after the film’s theatrical run, will expand on some of these truncated story arcs and underdeveloped characters.
https://slate.com/culture/2023/11/napoleon-movie-2023-joaquin-phoenix-
ridley-scott-gladiator.html
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
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I'm sure your broke ass will be providing a pirate link for it soon.
I wonder how many tax dollars you've not paid for all those movies, books and comic books you pirated.
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Killers of the Flower Moon is not impressing much at the box office anymore with under $300k per day on Monday and Tuesday after a $2 Million weekend. And now there's just so much competition out there too. The 3rd and 4th weekend drops were only -26% and -33%, but last weekend's drop was -57%.
My original prediction for Killers on October 18th was $132 Million, but I incorrectly gauged international interest, assuming a 75/25 to 70/30 split Domestic/International split, and as of today it is enjoying a 43.8/56.2 D/I split.
I was right that it wouldn't get the 30/70 split that Wolf of Wall Street got, but it came far closer to it than I would have ever imagined it would given the subject matter.
I upped my prediction to say $150 Million on November 2nd, but it appears I was probably wrong there too because of the international take. It currently sits at $146.3 Million Worldwide. Even if it didn't play another single day outside of the US and only got 2.5 more weeks here, it would probably hit $150 Million.
I don't feel like doing any math on this and I'll just say I don't expect it to do above $175 Million to be safe. If it makes it there, it's 87.5% of the Production Budget, putting it above Strays and far below Shazam II and Blue Beetle. I'd guess that with all the new movies that have come out since my last table update it would put it somewhere around 57th place on the list for 2023.
This movie is going to end up losing $300-$325 Million by the time it exits theaters.
Not quite Indy 5 levels of flop, but more like The Marvels levels of flop.
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Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack (November 17th):
FNAF at 1,044% now. It needs just 121% to beat Insidious: The Red Door for 5th place.
There must have been some stray internationals that came in late for that increase from 1,008% to 1,044% since FNAF is only getting a 4% bump for every Million with the $25 Million Production Budget and it's only made little over $1.5 Million domestic between Monday and Wednesday this week.
So this probably means an extra $7 Million or so international on top of the $18 Million international recorded on Sunday. This would be more in line with what I would expect the movie to do from the previous weekend, with somewhere in the area of a 50% to 60% drop. It's kind of hard to tell on this one since this isn't the first week it's gotten international numbers updated piecemeal.
It should probably get around another $12 Million international by next week and another $4 to $6 Million domestic by the end of the weekend, and at $277 to $280 Million it would be more than halfway where it needs to be from here to take 5th place for 2023.
FNAF continues to come in ahead of schedule on my predictions and it keeps posting more international numbers with no rhyme or reason.
Once we have tomorrows numbers, it should be just above $290 Million worldwide, or 1,160% of the Production Budget. It may or may not get the $500 Million on top of that it needs to get another 4% bump and take 5th place from Insidious before the weekend, but when I made that prediction only 5 days ago I thought it would only be around 1,100% worldwide AFTER this Holiday weekend.
Quote:
There's no way it's getting 1,362% to beat The Super Mario Bros. Movie for 4th place, but considering the fact I didn't even know if it was going to clear 800 or 900% after the terrible 2nd week drop in the US, this is a really great performance for yet another indie horror flick this year.
I still think this statement is true, but like Sound of Freedom did, FNAF keeps surprising me.
It would have to get $341 Million Worldwide to beat The Super Mario Bros. Movie, and $51 Million would be a literal miracle to pull off. It would have to get to around $320 Million and show that it still had some international legs at that point for me to even entertain that idea.
But at this point, I'm there's no way The Marvels is ever going to catch up with it, and I'm just about 100% sure that Songbirds and Snakes won't even come close either. We'll see what this weekend holds for Wish, but wouldn't that be something if Five Nights at Freddy's with its $25 Million budget beats all 3 of them?
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Oh shit...
The game has changed completely here, regarding FNAF!
My rule from the start is that I always use Bruce's Production Budget number for a movie when he has made it available before going to alternative sources such as BoxOfficeMojo or Deadline/Variety.
Bruce didn't have the PB for FNAF before, but I just noticed today that he must have added that info in and the budget according to him is only $20 Million, and not $25 Million.
https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Five-Nights-at-Freddys-(2023)#tab=su
mmary
Forget everything I said before about whether or not it beats The Super Mario Bros. Movie for 4th place because it already has.
FNAF now has a 1,450% for WW Gross vs. Production Budget.
Not only is it in 4th place, but by the end of this weekend it's easily going to take 3rd place from M3GAN (which is at 1,508%).
We're now looking at a possibility that FNAF even displaces Sound of Freedom for 2nd place. It would need a WW Gross of $342 Million to break even with SoF, and $343 Million to beat it (Assuming SoF doesn't make another $1 Million Internationally). I don't think this is a real possibility, but this movie has been nothing if not full of surprises up until this point.
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Damn...
Sorry Joaquin. Your Napoleon movie cost $200 Million to make and is going in the Highbrow Heap of failures right on top of Killers of the Flower Moon. These budgets are stupid, and I'm quite certain that the failure of this movie is not going to be any fault of your own.
https://deadline.com/2023/11/box-office-wish-napoleon-thanksgiving-123
5634036/
$28-$32 Million Domestic for a 5-day weekend is already a death sentence for Napoleon unless everybody else in the world goes out to see it like crazy.
Killers of the Flower Moon which also cost $200M to make only made $23.25 Million on Opening Weekend and after 5 weeks has still failed to make back even 75% of the Production Budget Worldwide.
Napoleon may do better, given the kick start of the 5-Day Holiday Weekend, but probably not by much if it does. The audience and critics ratings are both in the middling 60's here, which doesn't bode well.
I really hope that 2023 has taught a lot of lessons all around and gets the studios to put their budgets in check. Especially in this economy.
Universal doesn't really need to learn that lesson, aside from the mistake that was Renfield, and the stupid-stupid-stupid expensive Fast X. They've spent somewhere in the area of $1 Billion on Production Budgets for their 2023 slate, but they've pulled in around $4 Billion Worldwide Gross from them.
Fast X is their lesson, since the PB of that movie was about 1/3 of the entire production budgets for all of their movies in 2023. If somebody pitches Fast XI to you, tell them you won't give them more than $100 Million on the budget and Vin Diesel can go screw himself if he doesn't like what the pay is.
The only reason Lionsgate isn't dying like Disney this year is because they've kept all of their movies to $100 Million or less like Universal did (outside of Fast X). They're still going to lose 2023, but it's not nearly as bad as it could have been.
Thanks to Barbie, Warner Bros. is still going to come out on top even if Aquaman 2 is a major flop, but they'd better learn that if they're going to spend even as low as $104 Million on a superhero flick going forward it had damned well better be a good one. They would have had a banner year with Barbie had most of the Barbie profits not gone to covering their losses on Shazam II, Blue Beetle, The Flash and (probably) Aquaman 2.
If it weren't for the huge upcoming loss of Napoleon, I would have said that Sony can just keep doing its thing the way it's doing it. They're still going to be a winner at the end of 2023, but Napoleon is going to take a monster bite out of their otherwise current half-Billion+ profit.
There's no hope for Disney in 2024. They don't appear to have learned any lessons yet. The best decision they've made is to not release any Superhero movies outside of Deadpool 3 in 2024.
Maybe they can turn it around by 2025, but with them giving Dave Filoni a big promotion at Lucasfilm this week I don't think so, even if it means they're divesting Kathleen Kennedy of her power. I don't think he's going to be any better for the Star Wars/Indiana Jones/Willow brands than Kennedy was. But who knows? KK set such an awful low bar there, how could Dave screw it up any more than she already did?
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Sixstring seems to be better than the Weatehrman or the 401K guy on the phone...mostly
It has been interesting to watch 6IXSTRING's predictions and forecasts once cinema movies get their release
I would say the majority of the time he gets it correct and does true predictions at anywhere between 70% to 90% of the time
sometimes his projections are almost exactly right for each week
but he has got stuff wrong also
there are movies that won't follow a normal trend or do their own thing with a unique financial path due to circumstance
6IXSTRING got Barbie and Oppenheimer wrong
He is correct to predict most of the Marvel DC failures but there have been exception to the rule such as Spider-Man No Way Home
Five Nights at Freddy's might have been a little difficult to forecast since its budget was hidden until the last moment, it did unusually well being a Horror and opening on the Halloween weekend but then had a strong drop of, however even on its second weekend with a smaller taking of $5,000,000 Friday and Saturday $8,636,000 + and a Sunday taking it was beating it budget during the second week also, the film was very cheap at $20 million
Many predicted Shazam! Fury of the Gods would fail and predicted The Marvels would flop not just 6IXSTRING the word was out it was a bad movie.
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