Russia Invades Ukraine. Again

POSTED BY: captaincrunch
UPDATED: Sunday, September 6, 2026 21:09
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SECOND

Monday, July 24, 2023 5:54 PM

Russia’s Nuclear Option Hangs Over Ukraine and NATO

Some Western officials say Putin’s nuclear threats are all talk. Others are more wary.

By Robbie Gramer, July 11, 2023

https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/07/11/nato-summit-russia-nuclear-ukrain
e-deterrence/

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has thrust the risk of a nuclear showdown between Moscow and the West back into the spotlight. While all allied countries agree the risk of Russia escalating the conflict in Ukraine remains low, there’s a growing gap between the United States and some other allies as to when and how that risk could increase, according to interviews with nearly a dozen current and former NATO officials and security experts.

The nuclear question is an existential one for the alliance, one that’s driven Washington’s calculations on what military aid to send to Ukraine and when, and it has also influenced the debate on when and how to allow Ukraine to join the military alliance as a full-fledged member.

Some U.S. and other NATO defense officials believe there could be an increased risk of Russia launching a limited nuclear strike with a low-yield tactical nuclear weapon to stave off a major battlefield defeat if its forces look to be on the verge of a rout, or if Ukraine appears poised to capture Crimea and large swaths of occupied territory in southern and eastern Ukraine. Others say that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s nuclear saber-rattling won’t go further than that, and bowing to such threats will only embolden Russia to use such “nuclear blackmail” in the future.

At the same time, Ukrainian and Western officials also fear that Russia could mount an attack on Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant to attempt to trigger a major radiological event, irrespective of whether it launches a nuclear strike—though it’s unclear how successful those efforts would be.

That debate over Russia’s threshold for going nuclear in Ukraine sharpened after Putin announced Russia would deploy tactical nuclear weapons to neighboring Belarus, the first time that Moscow will dispatch part of its nuclear arsenal outside of Russia’s borders since the end of the Cold War. Back in Moscow, meanwhile, prominent Russian scholars and officials are engaging in an unusually public debate about the merits of using tactical nuclear weapons if the war in Ukraine continues to drag on. Many NATO leaders dismissed the move of nuclear weapons to Belarus as posturing aimed at unnerving NATO. Other officials and experts warned that some NATO allies missed or dismissed signs of Russian military escalation before, most notably in the run-up to the invasion of Ukraine last February, and needed to take these signals from Moscow more seriously.

Top Biden administration officials, meanwhile, say they take the nuclear threat very seriously but aren’t letting it bind U.S. support for Ukraine. “I think that there are two caricatures in the discourse about the threat of the use of tactical nuclear weapons,” U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan told a small group of reporters ahead of the NATO summit in Vilnius. “One caricature is the Biden administration is paralyzed by the nuclear threat and therefore won’t support Ukraine sufficiently. I think that is nonsense.”

“The other caricature is this nuclear threat is complete nonsense. Don’t worry about it at all. It’s to be completely discounted. That also is wrong,” Sullivan said. “It is a threat. It is a real threat. It’s one we need to take seriously. And it is one that does evolve with changing conditions on the battlefield.”

Other major voices in NATO say the prospect of Russia actually launching nuclear weapons, even lower-yield tactical nuclear weapons, remains too slim to factor into support for Ukraine. “I’m not concerned about the nuclear issue. I don’t think Putin dares to push the nuclear button,” Anders Fogh Rasmussen, the former NATO secretary-general and Danish prime minister, said in an interview. “The response from the United States and its allies would be very harsh and the rest of the wor

THG

Monday, July 24, 2023 11:36 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:

mines are just one reason why i question the west's implaccable desire to ee a ukrainian 'offensive'. the only thing the offensive is doing is creating a lot od dead soldiers and amputees.

if the ukrainians had gone on the defensive instead, it would be russians having to thread their way thru minefields.

What a dummy. Nobody falls for that. If Ukraine goes on the defensive Russia pays no price for occupying Ukrainian land. And they get to lay more mines and dig more trenches while reinforcing troop levels. Nope...

T

SIGNYM

Tuesday, July 25, 2023 1:01 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:

mines are just one reason why i question the west's implaccable desire to ee a ukrainian 'offensive'. the only thing the offensive is doing is creating a lot od dead soldiers and amputees.
if the ukrainians had gone on the defensive instead, it would be russians having to thread their way thru minefields.

THUGR: What a dummy. Nobody falls for that. If Ukraine goes on the defensive Russia pays no price for occupying Ukrainian land. And they get to lay more mines and dig more trenches while reinforcing troop levels. Nope...

Did you see the video of Ukies getting their feet and lower legs blown off in a minefield heavily salted with anti-personnel mines, trying to drag or wriggle or squirm their way to the safety of a Bradley while their potential rescuers try - sometimes unsuccessfully - to avoid the very same mines?

It's not for the faint of stomach, and not a winning tactic. Suicide attacks only result in suicide. Ukraine needs to try something besides suicide, bc RIGHT NOW Ukrainians are paying a far heavier 'price' than Russians. Sometimes at 10:1. Not sustainable.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM

SIGNYM

Tuesday, July 25, 2023 1:29 AM

So meanwhile, in real news...

Ukrainian military has once again changed tactics, from the initial "combined arms" attack on the southern front (which lost 20-30 pct of its armored vehicles and appx 15,000 soldiers dead or wounded), to attacks with small units of infantry supported by artillery, and now (under the sting of USA criticism that Ukraine doesn't "know how' to run a combined arms offensive) the heavy weaponry is once again at the southern front. The one place that Ukraine has attacked over and over since June 5 is a small place called Rabotino (sp?) in southern Donbas, which is threatening to become another Bakhmut. AFAIK Ukraine eventually decided to move around Rabotino and has made its way appx a half kilometer to the south, but still in the gray zone. In other words, the southern front is essentially static.

Ukrainians are also making a push towards Bakhmut, without the heavy NATO weaponry dedicated to the southern front, but are apparently stuck there, too.

They (Ukrainians) still have very defensible positions in Marinka and Adiivka and Russia is having a hard time dislodging them. Russia appears to be slowly surrounding these positions.

Russians are slowly advancing in the north, towards Lyman.

Odessa was pounded five nights in a row with drones and various missiles (Onyx, KH101, Zircon, Iskander). The explanation that makes sense to me is that Odessa (and other "grain deal" ports) - with docks, warehouses, and rail and roadway networks, became a prime weapons-moving facility and storehouse for weapons, munitions, fuel, even foreign volunteers under the protection of that grain deal. Once the grain deal expired, it was open season on all of that materiel and personnel.
So far, only one civilian death has been confirmed.

But Ukraine is not entirely without a response: it says it destroyed three ammo dumps in Crimea using drones and/or missiles..

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM

SIGNYM

Tuesday, July 25, 2023 2:15 AM

Another suicide attack by Ukraine on the southern front. Remember, this is a PRO Ukrainian channel.

Quote:
Summer Operation | Complete Defeat of NATO Armored Vehicles. Military Summary For 2023.07.24

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM

THG

Tuesday, July 25, 2023 2:40 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Another suicide attack by Ukraine on the southern front.

Remember, this is a PRO Ukrainian channel.

Quote:
Summer Operation | Complete Defeat of NATO Armored Vehicles. Military Summary For 2023.07.24

Wow pro Ukraine site. Then why do all their headlines show Russia winning. Nope, another Russian bullshit propaganda site.

T

SECOND

Tuesday, July 25, 2023 3:54 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by THG:

Wow pro Ukraine site. Then why do all their headlines show Russia winning. Nope, another Russian bullshit propaganda site.

T

Tokyo Rose and Axis Sally told the soldiers that Japan and Germany were winning. So much winning! Why step on a landmine? If you don't get blown to pieces you will face the invincible soldiers of Japan (or Germany).

https://everything-everywhere.com/tokyo-rose-and-axis-sally/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

SIGNYM

Tuesday, July 25, 2023 1:41 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Another suicide attack by Ukraine on the southern front.

Remember, this is a PRO Ukrainian channel.

Quote:
Summer Operation | Complete Defeat of NATO Armored Vehicles. Military Summary For 2023.07.24

THUGR: Wow pro Ukraine site. Then why do all their headlines show Russia winning. Nope, another Russian bullshit propaganda site.

Maybe bc RUSSIA IS WINNING???

Jeez, is it in your playbook that you have to be delusional in order to be a patriot?

Didn't you hear him in the first part of the video? He was spittin' mad that Russia struck sites right on the border with Polnd and none of the border states lifted a finger to help. Basically he was saying It wouldn't have cost them anything to fire off their air defense missiles. They could have said 'We saw missiles coming right a us and we defended ourselves' and Russia wouldn't have responded'. But in his view, Ukraine's border states are chickenshit (my word, not his.)

Every advance Ukraine makes is a victory. Every advance Russia makes is a defeat. His bias is OBVIOUS. But - unlike you- he doesn't let it get in the way of SEEING THE OBVIOUS.

You're such a fool, THUGR. And SECOND is all too willing to play you for one.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger

Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM

SECOND

Tuesday, July 25, 2023 4:45 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:

Maybe bc RUSSIA IS WINNING???

Jeez, is it in your playbook that you have to be delusional in order to be a patriot?

Didn't you hear him in the first part of the video? He was spittin' mad that Russia struck sites right on the border with Polnd and none of the border states lifted a finger to help. Basically he was saying It wouldn't have cost them anything to fire off their air defense missiles. They could have said 'We saw missiles coming right a us and we defended ourselves' and Russia wouldn't have responded'. But in his view, Ukraine's border states are chickenshit (my word, not his.)

Every advance Ukraine makes is a victory. Every advance Russia makes is a defeat. His bias is OBVIOUS. But - unlike you- he doesn't let it get in the way of SEEING THE OBVIOUS.

You're such a fool, THUGR. And SECOND is all too willing to play you for one.

Signym, using your method to track the Final Score in War, when the Vietnam War was over the USA had won a gratifying victory because tens of millions of Vietnamese were dead but only tens of thousands of Americans. And all of Vietnam had been bombed into ruins but not one US city was bombed. Go Team USA!

By the way, Germany, Italy, and Japan were "winning" until the week before signing surrender documents, according to propagandists working for the Axis Powers.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Axis_powers

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

SECOND

Wednesday, July 26, 2023 4:29 AM

The Dilemma Facing Every 17-Year-Old Boy in Ukraine

Should I stay or should I go? Given the possibility of being drafted into a brutal fight, young men in Ukraine are faced with a potentially life-or-death decision.

by Anna Neplii | July 23, 2023, 2:25 pm

For most young men, turning 18 brings with it some monumental and potentially life-changing decisions – work or university? Gap year or straight to campus? Follow your friends or venture out on your own?

Since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion, 17-year-old Ukrainian boys have been faced with one much more difficult and fundamentally life-altering choice – to stay or not to stay?

Under Ukrainian martial law, which has been in place since February of last year, men aged 18 to 60 are prohibited from traveling abroad and are potentially subject to conscription into the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU).

The AFU have for the most part managed to fill ranks with volunteers and is currently far from the point of needing to conscript as many males as possible as soon as they turn 18, but with no immediate end to the war or martial law in sight, those coming of age face an uncertain future.

For some, like Ruslan, the prospect of being sent to war was enough to make him decide to leave Ukraine. “I left in February somewhat spontaneously,” he tells Kyiv Post. “The main reason was that I don’t want to fight and none of my relatives want me to either.

“I am a patriot of Ukraine, but I’m definitely not ready to die, especially at such a young age. I am ready to support the Armed Forces of Ukraine as soon as I earn enough money.”

While staying in Ukraine comes with the many obvious risks of living in a warzone, the prospect of moving abroad raises other, perhaps less lethal but no less valid, concerns for a young adult.

“I don’t want to leave my family, friends and go into uncertainty, where no one and nothing is waiting for me,” Dmytro says.

More at https://www.kyivpost.com/post/19760

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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