Russia Invades Ukraine. Again
POSTED BY: captaincrunch
UPDATED: Sunday, September 6, 2026 21:09
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Putin is running out of options in Ukraine
Lawrence Freedman writes:
Governments start wars in pursuit of various objectives, from conquering territory to changing the regime of a hostile state to supporting a beleaguered ally. Once a war begins, the stakes are immediately raised. It is one of the paradoxes of war that even as its original objectives drift out of reach or are cast aside, the necessity of not being seen as the loser only grows in importance—such importance, in fact, that even if winning is no longer possible, governments will still persevere to show that they have not been beaten.
The problem with losing goes beyond the failure to achieve objectives or even having to explain the expenditures of blood and treasure for little gain: loss casts doubt on the wisdom and competence of the government. Failure in war can cause a government to fall. That is often why governments keep on fighting wars: an admission of defeat could make it harder to hold on to power.
All of these dynamics are evident in Russia’s war against Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin set as his objectives the “denazification” and “demilitarization” of Ukraine. By the first, he presumably meant regime change, in which case the war has clearly been a failure. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s position is as strong as ever. As for demilitarization, Ukraine is on its way to becoming the most militarized country in Europe. Many of the Russian speakers in Ukraine on whose behalf Putin claimed to be acting now prefer to speak Ukrainian, while the Russian-speaking areas of the Donbas have been battered, deindustrialized, and depopulated because of this ruinous war.
Russian forces have failed to take complete control of any of the four oblasts, or administrative regions—Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia—that Putin claimed for Russia in September 2022. Much of the ground initially seized after the full-scale invasion has been relinquished, and more is being lost, albeit slowly, during the current Ukrainian offensive. Before February 2022, Russia could be confident that Ukraine would not be able to challenge the illegal annexation of Crimea, but now even Russia’s hold of the peninsula is no longer certain. Ukraine still hopes that its war aims—the liberation of all occupied land and the restoration of the borders created in 1991—can be achieved. Even if Ukraine’s current offensive falters, Russia lacks for now the combat power to seize the advantage and take more territory.
Putin is not close to achieving any of his war aims while the price of his gambit grows ever steeper. He may, of course, believe that at least some of his original objectives are still possible, or take some comfort from those analysts in the West who are convinced that the best Ukraine can hope for is a military stalemate. But the Russian leader has never shown himself to be satisfied with a stalemate. He wants a resolution in which he can be shown to be the clear victor. When asked about negotiation, including by sympathetic interlocutors, for example from Africa, he still demands that Ukraine recognize the annexations of the four oblasts, which would require Kyiv to hand over more territory to Moscow. That is clearly not going to happen.
More at https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/putin-running-out-options-ukrai
ne
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
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Russian soldiers in Ukraine have said the defense ministry is abandoning the bodies of fighters killed on the battlefield so it doesn't have to pay compensation to families.
On January 3, President Vladimir Putin signed a decree promising to pay 5 million rubles ($55,600) to the families of Russian soldiers killed in the war. Troops who are injured or experience trauma on the battlefield will receive 3 million rubles ($33,300), under legislation from March 2022.
Russian troops have voiced frustration over failures to pay compensation.
https://www.newsweek.com/russian-soldiers-killed-ukraine-bakhmut-compe
nsation-putin-war-1815514
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Ukraine isn't killing enough Russians
Story by Colonel Richard Kemp
We learned this week that Russia has increased its upper age limits for reservist mobilization from 45 to 55, and in some cases even as high as 70. Having sustained huge numbers of casualties in the last 17 months, the shortage of fighting troops is also being tackled with plans to increase the age of compulsory conscription from 27 to 30, and laws to reduce the country’s perennial problem of draft dodging have been tightened.
All this shows that, despite the abject failure of its initial plans for the subjugation of Ukraine, the Kremlin is keen to give the appearance that it is not backing down. But it also reveals Moscow’s Achilles’ heel.
When the war began to go badly wrong for Russia, Putin unexpectedly needed many more men to feed his war machine but was desperate to avoid general mobilization for fear of backlash among the population. Even the partial mobilization of 300,000 in September triggered sporadic protests in several cities and led to an exodus of nearly 400,000 young men frightened of being called up to fight. That number may now be considerably higher.
Historically, high casualty rates have created instability in Russia and the Soviet Union. Death tolls in the Russo-Japanese War, the First World War, and the war in Afghanistan contributed respectively to the Russian revolutions of 1905 and 1917 and the fall of the USSR. Some of the other ingredients of such rebellions are also present today, including increasing economic hardship and incompetent military leadership that has seen several Russian generals dismissed and even arrested.
Casualties foment discontent at home and among the already demoralized troops on the front line – as well as eroding Russian physical fighting power. High enemy attrition rates might therefore be more effective for Ukraine in turning this conflict around than re-taking territory, important though that also is.
Although a wide range of numbers has been bandied around, casualty figures on both sides in this war have been impossible for outside observers to assess in any reliable way. But, despite Kyiv’s claims, the likelihood is that attrition rates have not so far been in its favor.
That means they have to find more efficient ways of killing Russian soldiers or delivering strategic victories which render numbers irrelevant (such as via large-scale encirclements) while preserving their own. Frontal attacks, fighting outnumbered and outgunned against heavily defended obstacle belts, are likely to have the opposite effect, which is why Kyiv has so far been holding back its most powerful armored brigades.
The most prolific killer in this war is artillery. Here, Russia has superiority, perhaps 10-1, in guns, shells, and missiles. The West, and in particular the US, has supplied Ukraine with enormous quantities, especially of 155mm shells, but with thousands fired every day, arsenals are running dry. The US has even shipped operational stocks held in Israel to Ukraine, and the recent decision to supply controversial cluster munitions is a further indication of grave shortages. Western defense industry has been unable to keep up with demand, and it is essential that even greater investment is now made to dramatically increase production.
Air power too is essential. It is not going to be possible for NATO to train pilots and supply F-16s in time to influence the current counter-offensive, but we are facing a long-term war of attrition and President Biden needs to stop prevaricating and make sure the planes that Ukraine so badly needs are got to them as quickly as possible.
The same goes for ATACMS long-range missiles. Biden’s fear has always been, despite Ukrainian guarantees, that these weapons might be used to fire at sovereign Russian territory. But that among other targets – is what they should be used for. Western fears of escalation were once perhaps understandable, but many of Moscow’s supposed red lines have been crossed long since without consequences and this war is now
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Amid Odesa Attacks, Russia Deploys Standard Lie of Excluding Civilian and Cultural Targets:
“The planning of strikes with precision weapons against military and terrorist infrastructure facilities of the Kiev regime is carried out on the basis of information carefully checked and confirmed through several channels, knowingly excluding the civilian facilities, as well as cultural and historical heritage sites.”
That is false.
Russia’s July 23 strikes on Odesa destroyed and damaged 44 buildings and sites of cultural significance. Russia provided no evidence to back its claim that the civilian buildings struck in the attack were being used to “prepare terrorists acts.”
https://www.polygraph.info/a/fact-check-amid-odesa-attacks-russia-depl
oys-standard-lie-of-excluding-civiliand-and-cultural-targets/7198916.html
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
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One of the difficulties in covering the Russo-Ukraine War as a journalist is the tendency of so many in this profession to assemble facts in favor of whatever the prevailing narrative of the day is. Sixteen months ago, it was hard to find many people in prominent Washington think tanks or at major broadsheets who did not think Kyiv would fall in three days. When it didn’t, those wedded to the notion that Russia was a near-indomitable military power still found the conventional wisdom, built up over years of diligent study and perhaps the unconscious assimilation of Russian propaganda, hard to slough off. Just because Kyiv wasn’t sacked and the Russian army was driven out of the capital region, ran this line of thinking, didn’t mean Ukraine hadn’t exhausted its inventory of miracles. It could not claw back more territory. Then Kharkiv happened. A wondrous bait-and-switch operation, to be sure, but a one-off for that very reason. The Russians were learning, adapting and preparing, and the long-shot play to retake Kherson would prove it. Then Russia withdrew from half of that region in November as a “goodwill gesture.” And so on.
Having serially outperformed expectations, Ukraine finds itself in the unenviable position of having gone from scrappy underdog to victim of its own mythologized success. Six and a half weeks into a much-anticipated counteroffensive and there are no dramatic battlefield developments. A handful of settlements have been reclaimed in the southern regions of Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk, and that’s it. An absence of climax has begun to lead to impending anti-climax and the sort of doomcasting that characterized the preliminaries of Russia’s full-scale invasion. The counteroffensive into which Kyiv and its NATO partners have invested so much kit, manpower and money is already a busted flush, we are told. “Ukraine’s counter-offensive is failing, with no easy fixes,” ran one comment piece in The Daily Telegraph. This was preceded four days earlier by an even less sunny prognosis in the same newspaper, “Ukraine and the West are facing a devastating defeat.”
Ironically, such assessments stand in marked contrast to what Russians in the field are saying about the capability of their adversary. But to understand where Ukraine is headed, it’s first necessary to explain where it is.
Ukraine launched this operation in June hoping, but not expecting, a quick breakthrough of Russian defensive lines in the south. The objective, as several Western and Ukrainian officials told New Lines, is to press through all the way to the Sea of Azov, in Ukraine’s southeast, to sever Russia’s “land bridge” to occupied Crimea and isolate Russian forces on the left bank of the Dnipro, the remaining area of Kherson oblast that is still under Moscow’s control. This was never to be an easy or quick undertaking, as was well known before the counteroffensive got underway. Russian forces have spent more than a year building up enormous fortifications known collectively as the “Surovikin Line,” named for the former commander of Russia’s war in Ukraine, Gen. Sergey Surovikin, who has not been seen or heard from since the Wagner putsch last month and who, the Wall Street Journal reports, may be detained as a willing or passive accomplice in that affair.
More at https://newlinesmag.com/argument/russians-see-ukrainian-progress-where
-others-dont/
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
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Russian cybersecurity chief jailed for 14 years for treason
Did he do what he was accused of? No. What did he actually do? Same as others:
The tech businessman is the latest among many people, including scientists, soldiers, officials and a former journalist, to face the charge in recent years.
A year before his arrest, Sachkov ruffled feathers after he stood up at an event attended by Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin. In a televised speech, Sachkov accused authorities of allowing a prominent Russian criminal hacker to go about his business unimpeded, criticised the appointment of someone he said was a former spy to a body covering the export of advanced technologies, and accused Russian President Vladimir Putin’s cybersecurity envoy of making toxic statements.
Sachkov’s former colleagues, who bought Group-IB’s Russian business and renamed it FACCT, said in a statement that his legal team would appeal his conviction and ask Putin to intervene. In a statement, the company wrote, “While he remains wrongfully imprisoned, we will continue to stand up against injustice and operate our business with the same mission in mind – to fight against cybercrime.”
At the time of his arrest, the firm was focused on investigating high-tech crimes and online fraud, including in Russia, with a global client base that included banks, energy companies, telecoms firms and Interpol.
More at https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/26/russian-cybersecurity-chief-j
ailed-for-14-years-on-treason
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
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Quote:
Originally posted by second:
One of the difficulties in covering the Russo-Ukraine War as a journalist is the tendency of so many in this profession to assemble facts in favor of whatever the prevailing narrative of the day is.
There you go.
You just cracked the code why AI is coming for your jobs next, buddy.
You get what you deserve.
--------------------------------------------------
How you do anything is how you do everything.
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Ukraine's Armed Forces to be in Crimea soon – Defense Intelligence Chief
Ukrainska Pravda — Saturday, 29 July 2023, 03:10
Kyrylo Budanov, Chief of the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine, has said that the Ukrainian military will soon be able to liberate Russian-occupied Crimea. Budanov did not name the exact date of the liberation of the peninsula. In September 2022, Kyrylo Budanov said that Ukraine would return to Crimea by the end of spring 2023.
More at https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/07/29/7413330/
The story I want to read would include a prediction about the collapse of the Crimea Bridge.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_Bridge
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
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Two super successful leaders praise each other for killing their neighbors and their own citizens while placing all blame on the USA, which they threatened to nuke:
Putin thanks North Korea for supporting Ukraine war as Pyongyang displays its nukes in parade
North Korea’s “firm support” for Russia’s war in Ukraine emboldens the two countries’ determination to cope with Western nations, Russian President Vladimir Putin said in a speech to North Korean officials on Thursday, according to a report in North Korean state media.
Putin did not go into detail of the nature of Pyongyang’s support in what he called Russia’s “special military operation.” But US officials said last year that North Korea was selling millions of rockets and artillery shells to Russia for use on the battlefield in Ukraine.
“Solidarity with Russia on key international issues highlight our common interests,” Putin said in the speech, according to the state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).
The Russian leader’s remarks on his invasion of Ukraine were contained within a message of congratulations to North Korea on the 70th anniversary of the Korean War armistice, known as Victory Day in the North, even though the grueling conflict ended in stalemate and the peninsula divided.
Putin specifically cited Soviet pilots, whom he claimed “carried out tens of thousands of combat flights” for contributing to “annihilating the enemy,” KCNA said.
“The historic experience of combative friendship has noble values, and is serving as a reliable foundation to further develop the connection between Russia and North Korea in the field of politics, economy and safety,” Putin said, according to KCNA.
Much more at https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/28/asia/putin-north-korea-ukraine-parade-i
ntl-hnk/index.html
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
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If Ukraine’s ongoing counteroffensive against Moscow’s invasion captures Russian territory, there would be no alternative to using strategic nuclear weapons, Russia’s Dmitry Medvedev warned on Sunday.
“There would simply be no other way out” of using nuclear weapons if the Ukrainian offensive succeeded in taking Russian territory, Medvedev, former Russian president and current National Security Council deputy chairman, said in a post on social media.
“Just imagine that the NATO-supported ukrobanderovtsy’s offensive turned out successful, and they took away a part of our land: Then we would have to, following the president’s degree of 02.06.2020, use the nuclear weapon,” Medvedev wrote, referring to followers of Stepan Bandera, a nationalist leader who waged a violent campaign for Ukrainian independence in the 1930s and 1940s.
“That’s why our enemies must worship our warriors. They are keeping global nuclear fire from flaring up,” Medvedev said, referring to Russian efforts to stop the Ukrainian offensive.
Medvedev has not been shy in using Russia’s nuclear arsenal to threaten Ukraine and its Western supporters. During Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin’s failed coup, Medvedev said the rebellion could lead to a nuclear war.
Before that, Medvedev had said that the war in Ukraine could be “brought to an end within a few days” by doing what “the Americans did in 1945 when they deployed nuclear weapons and bombed two Japanese cities, Hiroshima and Nagasaki.”
https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-dmitry-medvedev-ukraine-counter
offensive-russia-invasion-war-nuclear-weapons/
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
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