Russia Invades Ukraine. Again
POSTED BY: captaincrunch
UPDATED: Sunday, September 6, 2026 21:09
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How the War in Ukraine Could End Sooner Than Expected
by Peter A. Wilson and William Courtney
Predictions merit only guarded confidence when so many have proven wrong, e.g., that Kyiv could fall within days or Russia would quickly gain air superiority over Ukraine.
Policymakers might be prudent, however, to consider not only possibilities of a long war but also how it might end sooner.
Putin Could Fall
Putin's ex-KGB cohort in the Kremlin could be in trouble. A surprise, poorly executed draft of several hundred thousand men has been unpopular. Defeats in Ukraine have sparked a torrent of hardline pro-war criticism. Some Kremlin insiders may be experiencing growing discontent. Putin could be pressured or ousted by renegade security forces, such as those led by hardliners Yevgeny Prigozhin (Wagner Group) or Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov.
Abrupt regime change could be risky. Russia might become ungovernable. If Moscow persisted in its war, the West may continue to arm Ukraine, enforce biting sanctions, and control some $300 billion in Russian financial assets. Only liberalizers who withdrew forces from Ukraine might relieve the pressure.
Russia's Army Could Collapse
In World War I, a poorly motivated and provisioned Russian army collapsed, helping bring down an out-of-touch czar. Today, Russia might face a similar risk. While Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visits frontline troops, Putin is mostly hidden from view far from any fighting. No surprise that morale of Ukrainian soldiers is strong and that of Russians is weak. In some instances, enforcers shoot those who refuse to fight.
In October, a British intelligence chief said Russian forces in Ukraine were overstretched and exhausted. Troops train at dilapidated bases, fight with obsolete equipment, and lack medical supplies. Soldiers complain of being sent into a meat grinder. Some mutiny. During this winter some might freeze without warm clothing.
Ukraine's Army Could Win
It repelled early Russian lunges to seize Ukraine's three largest cities—Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Odessa. Recently, Ukrainian forces took back half the land in eastern and southern Ukraine, which Russians seized in the second invasion launched on February 24, including the only regional capital taken since then, Kherson.
If the ground freezes deep and long enough, Ukraine's army might conduct combined arms operations to push deeper into occupied areas. Even Crimea could be vulnerable if Ukrainians seized the rail hub of Melitopol. Such initiatives might take place before the Russian army could train and equip a large second echelon force, with the aim of conducting a renewed offensive against Kyiv or Kharkiv.
Finally, there remains the specter that a desperate Kremlin might escalate the war, such as by direct attacks on supply and training bases in nearby NATO countries or even limited use of nuclear weapons.
The former option might be unattractive because of NATO reinforcement of its eastern European flank and a lack of Russian long-range precision attack munitions. The latter might be deterred in part by NATO nuclear maneuvers or by Chinese, Indian, or other international opposition.
How this war ends remains uncertain. It does seem the West will continue to ensure that Ukrainian forces retain their qualitative lead in arms and access to Western intelligence information. A Russian mobilization of more conscripts, even if ill-trained and poorly equipped, could shore up Russian defenses.
The stage might be set for drawn-out attritional warfare. But policymakers ought not overlook contingencies that might seem unlikely but could end the war earlier.
Peter A. Wilson is an adjunct senior international and defense researcher at the nonprofit, nonpartisan RAND Corporation and teaches a course on the history of military technological innovation at the Osher Lifelong Learning Institute. William Courtney is an adjunct senior fellow at RAND and was U.S. ambassador to Kazakhstan, Georgia, and the U.S.-USSR commis
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Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Oh yeah bc Sick Francisco Mayor Breed and Gavin "Noisesome" Newsom represent everyone in California.
/snicker
"We support Ukraine": It's a gubmint thing.
Edited to add: Yanno,THUGR, if you had ANY respect for democracy at all, you'd be interested in what PEOPLE are thinking, instead of trying to impose an official narrative on them.
Polish Russian Collaborator Signym who for years has promoted Putin’s’ way over Americas, has no idea how stupid she makes herself look with posts like this one.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. Stupid people don’t know they’re stupid, and they certainly don’t know how obvious it is to others.
T
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Quote:
Originally posted by THG:
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. Stupid people don’t know they’re stupid, and they certainly don’t know how obvious it is to others.
Know thyself, Ted. Know thyself.
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Growing up in a Republic was nice... Shame we couldn't keep it.
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Quote:
Originally posted by second:
How the War in Ukraine Could End Sooner Than Expected
Putin Could Fall
Russia's Army Could Collapse
Ukraine's Army Could Win
That all seems rather one sided.
Quote:
Finally, there remains the specter that a desperate Kremlin might escalate the war, such as by direct attacks on supply and training bases in nearby NATO countries or even limited use of nuclear weapons.
Here's an idea. Don't push nuclear war if you're not ready for nuclear war.
Looking at you Biden* and NATO.
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Growing up in a Republic was nice... Shame we couldn't keep it.
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Ukraine Interior Minister Killed In Chopper Crash...and Russia Exposed as 'Not So Strong' as people previously thought
but Does anyone have a plan to end this war?
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Quote:Yes, the Ukrainians do, but their plan requires NATO to do the maximum when supplying weapons and ammo to Ukraine. But NATO is only going part way because, you know, each country in NATO keeps expecting the other countries to take up the slack. The countries are economizing, including the USA. Here is the editorial:
Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:
but Does anyone have a plan to end this war?
Why won’t NATO send weapons that could end the war?
The delayed delivery of weapons systems doomed the victims in Dnipro. The West's continued refusal to send tanks and long-range missiles gives Putin the chance to raze Ukraine.
by Trudy Rubin | Columnist
Updated Jan 18, 2023
To understand why Russia’s war on Ukraine remains the key foreign issue for Americans in 2023, you should watch the video of a Ukrainian mother whose son died when a Russian missile blasted a nine-story apartment building in Dnipro on Saturday.
Timed at midday on the Orthodox New Year holiday, when people would be home, the Russians deliberately fired a 2,000-pound Kh-22 supersonic cruise missile — which was designed to sink aircraft carriers — at a building full of civilians. At least 72 apartments collapsed into a hideous mountain of concrete, household goods, and wires, while some remained partially intact with their front walls sheared off, leaving furniture dangling. The remains of 45 people — including two young doctors, a dentist, a boxing coach, and several children — have been pulled from the rubble so far, and many are still missing.
“Why did you kill him?” the bereaved mother in the video screamed, restrained by a relative as she railed at the Russians. “You used to come here, to our city, we were treating you as normal people, as normal relatives. Let you be cursed your whole life by all people, by me, by all mother’s tears. Let your whole country be cursed.”
In the meantime, Russian TV talk show hosts were praising their country for uniquely embodying traditional Orthodox Christian values, and decrying the Ukrainians — and Americans — as Nazis and Satanists. One prominent Russian official declared, “We are humans, and they [Ukrainians] are nonhumans.” Yet it is Russians who have embraced the inhuman behavior of Nazis.
Vladimir Putin is ready to raze Ukraine to the ground if he can’t conquer the country — so long as the West permits him. Decision time for the NATO allies is right now.
On Friday, NATO defense ministers will meet at Ramstein air base in Germany to discuss how to move forward with aiding Ukraine.
Contrary to popular perception, the U.S. and Europe have still not given Ukraine the weapons to stop Putin.
In Dnipro, Ukraine had no means of shooting down the Kh-22 missile, which had previously caused gruesome damage to civilian targets. Nor does Kyiv yet have the means to stop Russian ballistic missiles — never mind Iranian ballistic missiles, which Tehran may soon send as part of its new military alliance with the Kremlin.
In both cases, long-range Patriot antimissile systems are the only answer. They are required to layer over the mid- and lower-range Western and old Soviet-made systems that have so far prevented total Russian destruction of Ukraine’s power grid.
Ukraine has been begging for Patriots for months. Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov told me in July in Kyiv that he was certain the United States would agree to send Patriots by the end of 2022, but by then thousands of Ukrainian civilians would have died.
Reznikov was correct. Dnipro is only the latest victim of Russian terror attacks as I saw in July in Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, and other cities where Russia’s missiles have shattered apartment buildings, markets, hospitals, and schools.
As Reznikov foresaw, the United States and Germany finally agreed to send one Patriot battery each in late December (the Netherlands will probably send a third). But one battery can only defend part of a city and requires months of training — which the Ukrainians are just beginning — to operate it.
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Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:Quote:
Finally, there remains the specter that a desperate Kremlin might escalate the war, such as by direct attacks on supply and training bases in nearby NATO countries or even limited use of nuclear weapons.
Here's an idea. Don't push nuclear war if you're not ready for nuclear war.
Looking at you Biden* and NATO.
Russia is too chicken to directly nuke Ukraine, but it might arrange a series of "nuclear accidents" where the Ukrainians are said by Russia to have blown up their own nuclear power plants. Russia would express sympathy but insist it had nothing to do with these "accidental" explosions spreading radiation all over Ukraine.
In other news, Germany says its Prime Minister is a coward afraid of making a decision because of the cost and because Putin's Army might be unable to prevent Ukraine from blowing up Ukrainian nuclear power plants "accidentally" which would spread radiation across Germany, as did the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant on April 26, 1986:
Berlin sets condition for U.S. on exports of German tanks to Ukraine
Germany will allow German-made tanks to be sent to Ukraine but only if the United States agrees to send its own tanks before the Germans send theirs. Ukraine has pleaded for heavy battle tanks.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz has stressed the condition about U.S. tanks several times in recent days behind closed doors, the German government source said, speaking on condition of anonymity.
https://web.archive.org/web/20230119001441/https://www.reuters.com/wor
ld/europe/berlin-sets-condition-us-exports-german-tanks-ukraine-source-2023-01-18/
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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Berlin will allow exports of German tanks to Ukraine if U.S. sends its tanks -source
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/berlin-will-allow-exports-german-
tanks-ukraine-if-us-sends-its-tanks-source-2023-01-18/
Russian Soldiers Who Fled Front Lines Call Out Putin for Lying About War
https://www.newsweek.com/russian-soldiers-who-fled-front-lines-call-ou
t-putin-lying-about-war-1774839
Serbian President Vucic denounces Russian occupation of Crimea and Donbas
https://news.yahoo.com/serbian-president-vucic-denounces-russian-18310
0868.html
“We said from the beginning that we cannot support Russia's invasion of Ukraine,” Vucic said in an interview with Bloomberg on Jan. 18.
“For us Crimea is Ukraine, Donbass is Ukraine – it will remain so.”
Vucic suggested that the worst is yet to come in Russia's war against Ukraine. The president added that he hadn’t spoken with Putin for “many months.”
He stressed that his government doesn't always agree with Moscow’s foreign policy.
“We aren’t always happy with some of their positions,” the president added. ...
At the same time, Vucic said he was grateful to Russia for its support of Serbia regarding Kosovo, citing it as the reason why Serbia cannot support economic sanctions against Moscow.
It appears Sweden also wants to test their toys against Russian toys
Sweden to send infantry fighting vehicles to Ukraine
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/sweden-send-infantry-fighting-veh
icles-ukraine-2023-01-19/
Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Russia is too chicken to directly nuke Ukraine
Have you been to Nagasaki? or maybe you went to vist or trip to the dome covers the top of a crater left by one of the blasts, on Enewetak Atoll in the Marshall Islands? have you talked with atomic veterans that were told to run out into sand burning by atomic fire in the Nevada Test Site?
I don't think its a matter of 'chicken'
Do you know what happens when one Nuke flies, do you not understand they all go in the air
maybe as crazy as Putin is he has a little sanity left
According to strategic military doctrines, full use and deployment of nuclear weapons are expected, of which shall ensure the mutually assured destruction of all parties involved.
Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
America does not support Ukraine.Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
I have never seen Ukrainian colors anywhere in my neighborhood. Not house flags or backpacks or purses or jackets or even modest window decals or bumper stickers (the cheapest form of "support"). Not back in February 2022, and not now.
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Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE someone poor - William Blake
I don't think flags matter so much, if people remember how many waved Afghan flags during the Soviet invasion or how many people were flying the flag of South Vietnam....I know there was a famous photo with Reagan and jihads at the Whitehouse but outside tv speeches and political circles how many will truly wave those flags
its just another proxy war
It might not be Total but it is a way to damage and injure the Russian Army, hundreds of thousands of Russia causalities while hundreds of thousands of Ukraine people also die
Zelensky calls on the world to act fast against Russian attacks at WEF
https://www.business-standard.com/article/international/zelensky-calls
-on-the-world-to-act-fast-against-russian-attacks-at-wef-123011900180_1.html
Canada announces it will donate 200 armoured vehicles to Ukraine
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-ukaine-armoured-personnel-carr
iers-donation-1.6717597
maybe nobody in the West likes that Bear growling, drinking vodka and living in the snow, its maybe like funding a wild fox and wolf pack to bite the ass of Bear but in reality nobody is truly going to replace their Flag with a flag of a Wolf or Fox
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In a long and rambling post, I noticed this from Jayneztown:
Quote:You are delusional, Jayneztown, with your "just another proxy war" explanation. The Russians have murdered 4 million Ukrainians in the past over political differences. The Russians would murder another 4 million in the present if the Ukrainians forget or misunderstand how Russians think about Ukrainians. (President Zelenskyy didn't believe Russia would attack. That was nearly a fatal case of amnesia for him.)
its just another proxy war
It might not be Total but it is a way to damage and injure the Russian Army, hundreds of thousands of Russia causalities while hundreds of thousands of Ukraine people also die
NATO will not do what Europe did when the Soviet Union existed. NATO will not let the Russians go unimpeded on another murder rampage across Ukraine.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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Putin ally: Russia’s defeat in Ukraine could trigger nuclear war
by Jared Gans - 01/19/23
Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, a close ally of President Vladimir Putin, warned on Thursday that a Russian defeat in Ukraine could cause a nuclear war to break out.
Medvedev said in a Telegram post that a nuclear power losing a conventional war can provoke the outbreak of a nuclear war, which he said was an “elementary” conclusion. Medvedev said nuclear powers have not lost major conflicts “on which their fate depends” before, but this should be “obvious.”
Putin has repeatedly threatened to use at least tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine as the conflict has dragged on much longer than experts think Putin intended.
Putin claimed in October that Russia would not use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, but President Biden cast doubt on that, questioning why he continually mentions Russia’s nuclear arsenal if he does not have any intention of using it.
Reuters reported that Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Medvedev’s comments do not mean that Russia is escalating the situation. He said his post is in line with Russian policy to use nuclear weapons after conventional ones have been used and the “very existence” of Russia is threatened.
https://thehill.com/policy/international/3819326-putin-ally-russias-de
feat-in-ukraine-could-trigger-nuclear-war/
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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