Russia Invades Ukraine. Again
POSTED BY: captaincrunch
UPDATED: Sunday, September 6, 2026 21:09
VIEWED: 562266
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Opinion: Putin has just laid a land mine under his regime
by Andrei Kolesnikov, Updated 9:51 AM ET, Wed September 21, 2022
Editor’s note: Andrei Kolesnikov is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He is the author of several books on the political and social history of Russia, including “Five Five-Year Liberal Reforms.” Origins of Russian Modernization and Egor Gaidar’s Legacy.”
In a televised national address Wednesday morning, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a partial mobilization. This means that he has essentially broken an unwritten social contract with Russians: we, the citizens, allow you, the authorities, to steal and fight, but in exchange you stay out of our private lives.
Beginning a new phase of the war, the cornered Putin is dragging a significant portion of Russians behind him. He has de facto declared war on the domestic front – not only on the opposition and civil society, but on the male population of Russia.
Why is Putin taking the risk? Because he himself has encouraged the lack of public attention to the war for several months. Mobilization is fraught with serious discontent in society. That is precisely why he decided to make a partial mobilization, rather than a full one. In the long run, he laid a mine under his regime; in the short run, he will face sabotage.
For so long, Putin fostered a disinclination among the masses for war, a disinclination that will now cost the Russians, who are being turned into cannon fodder.
How might Wednesday’s announcement take Russians out of their comfort zone – those who remained indifferent to the “special operation” in the current circumstances?
Until now at least, the main emotion (or rather, its absence) felt here was indifference. That indifference comes in different shades – genuine, imitative or self-cultivated.
The Russian who falls within the 30% who “rather” support the “special operation” (nearly 50% “definitely” support it, slightly less than 20% do not support it) has no opinion of his own, prefers to borrow it from the TV or from Putin, blocks out for himself the bad news and alternative sources of information. But he sometimes does not like the war itself, and a person in this 30% could potentially change his attitude toward Putin and his initiatives.
The indifference of ordinary people benefits Putin. We, the citizens, do not interfere in the affairs of our political class and support their initiatives, but in exchange we ask them to maintain an impression of normality.
Which is what Putin does, skillfully combining partial mobilization in support of the war and himself (which happened immediately after the invasion began) and demobilization. Entertainment programs are back on TV, fireworks went off on annual Moscow City Day festivities (an ironic joke of this day was that Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin celebrated the start of the Ukrainian counteroffensive), and people live their normal lives – interest in the events in Ukraine has been low throughout the summer.
But even those who were indifferent could not ignore the Ukrainian counterattack. Although here, too, a reluctance to know the truth prevailed: if the officials said that it was not a retreat, but a regrouping of troops, then that was the case. Yet even the official Kremlin talk shows were full of admissions of failure.
This did not provoke a desire for peace – which is also present in the mood even of those who generally support the operation – but caused an explosion of aggression and hate speech. There were calls to “take off the white gloves” and already really punish Ukraine. This is what Putin has done by launching missile strikes on infrastructure – power plants and hydroelectric facilities. This is revenge and anger, but anger that reveals weakness rather than strength.
The radicals are unhappy with Putin and demand a war to the bitter end and general mobilization. But the Kremlin dictator lacks the resources for a quick victory, including, above all, human resources (which is why he is beginning to r
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Quote:Huh. Seems like you don't think Ukraine is more than a "fucking piece of dirt".
Originally posted by CAPTAINCRUNCH:Quote:
Originally posted by SECOND:
Vowing that Russia would use all the means at its disposal to protect what it considers its territory, Putin accused the West of nuclear blackmail and warned: “I am not bluffing.” That was pure Putin magic: he threatens to nuke America and "Presto chango" it becomes America blackmail threatens to nuke Russia.
Pure KGB training. All for a nothing piece of dirt.
-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE someone poor - William Blake
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Quote:The Kremlin Must Be in Crisis
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Huh. Seems like you don't think Ukraine is more than a "fucking piece of dirt".
-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE someone poor - William Blake
If an American president announced a major speech, booked the networks for 8 p.m., and then disappeared until the following morning, the analysis would be immediate and damning: chaos, disarray, indecision. The White House must be in crisis.
In the past 24 hours, this is exactly what happened in Moscow. The Russian president really did announce a major speech, alert state television, warn journalists, and then disappear without explanation. Although Vladimir Putin finally gave his speech to the nation this morning, the same conclusions have to apply: chaos, disarray, indecision. The Kremlin must be in crisis.
In part, the crisis stems from Putin’s fears that he will lose whatever counts as his international support. No ideology holds together the global autocrats’ club, and no sentiment does either. As long as they believed Russia really had the second largest army in the world, as long as Putin seemed destined to stay in power indefinitely, then the leaders of China, Belarus, and Kazakhstan, along with the strongmen running India and Turkey, were happy to tolerate his company.
But Putin’s supposedly inevitable military victory is in jeopardy. His army looks weak. Western sanctions make problems not just for him but his trading partners, and their tolerance is receding. At a summit in Uzbekistan last week, he was snubbed by a series of Central Asian leaders. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi told him that “today’s era is not an era of war,” and Chinese President Xi Jinping expressed his “concerns” as well. On Monday, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan told PBS that he had urged Putin to end the war: “The lands which were invaded will be returned to Ukraine.” And those lands, he made clear, should include Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014, following a sham referendum much like the ones it now plans to stage in other parts of occupied Ukraine.
But while losing support abroad is bad, losing support at home is worse, and there are some signs of that too. Putin might not care much about the Russian liberals and exiles who oppose the war, but he may worry (and should worry) about people who are supposed to be on his side.
“Mobilization is, let’s put it bluntly, our only chance to avoid a crushing defeat,” one of them recently wrote. No one has stopped or arrested these critics, perhaps because they have protectors high up inside the security services, or perhaps because they are connected to the heavily armed mercenaries who are now doing much of the important fighting in Ukraine. If their loyalty isn’t assured, then Putin isn’t secure either.
At the same time, the Russian president has to balance the discontent of that heavily armed minority against the wishes of the mostly apathetic, mostly silent majority. For the past six months, Putin has been telling the latter that there is no war, just a special military operation; that Russia has suffered no losses, just some temporary setbacks. Given that the army is victorious and everything is fine, most people need not alter their lives in any way. Now events have forced Putin to change his language, but it seems there are limits. Thus he speaks not of a true mass mobilization — which would involve conscripting young men in enormous numbers — but of partial mobilization: no students, no general call-up, just the activation of reservists with past military experience. Supposedly Russia has 300,000 such people, though it’s not clear how many of them are actually fit to fight or whether there are enough weapons and gear for them either.
Finally, and perhaps most important, the speech and a series of legal changes announced yesterday reflect a crisis inside the military. In truth, the Russian army faces not just a logistical emergency or some tactical problems but also a collapse in
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It appears the third Leftist retard ducked in today to say nothing about anything going on except for Ukraine.
That's because Democrats are about to be destroyed, and all three of you fucktards know it.
RCP just took one of the 8 senate tossups and gave it to the GOP today.
Funny that. The fake polls make Biden*'s current approval numbers look as good as Trump's average right now, but Democrats are scared shitless about what's coming.
But keep talking about Russia when nobody cares.
--------------------------------------------------
Falsus in unum, falsus in omnibus
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Quote:Stupid stupid stupid.
Originally posted by CAPTAINCRUNCH:Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:Quote:
Originally posted by captaincrunch:
Do facts and logic say that those centers were in Bucha? Izyum? Kharkiv? No? Huh. So much for your facts.
Blame Kiev for massacring civilians. Yanni,like they've been doing all along I know that fact causes your mental gears to lock up, but that is reality. No matter how much smoke and metal shavings blow out of your ears.
What's your proof? Just saying something doesn't make it so, and it sure doesn't answer my question.
Were those pro Russian Ukrainians that you say Kiev bombed in Bucha? Izyum? Kharkiv? If not, looks like Russians murdered and tortured the Ukrainians there.
OR...
Are you saying that zero Ukrainian civilians have been harmed by any invading Russian troops?
Are you saying that ALL Ukrabinian civilian deaths/harm/torture that has happen since Russia invaded Ukraine has been done by Ukrainians?
Were these ppl killed by flechettes? Other ordnance? Tortured and murdered? You CAN tell what happened, and when, and therefore assign responsibility. But the two possibilities- having been shelled or individually killed- aren't mix-n-match possibilities. They might have been shelled by Russians or Kiev. They might have been murdered individually by Russians or Kiev.
But not "[either]Kiev bombed or Russians murdered and tortured". That's just inexpressibly stupid.
-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE someone poor - William Blake
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Quote:Natural gas production companies were making money at this time last year. Now that natural gas prices are up, thanks to Putin, the production companies are making a killing and an election will not change that killing because politicians in America have zero control over prices. Most Trumptards don't know that because they don't have any control. Somehow inflation must be the fault of the Federal Reserve Bank interest rates. The Chair of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, announced today that he was increasing the rate by .75%. Most Trumptards don't know that Jerome Powell is a Republican appointed by Trump. Powell said today that there is not enough unemployment. He won't stop raising interest rates until he has forced more people out of work. Since Trumptards won't be reading what Powell said, they won't know it.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
It appears the third Leftist retard ducked in today to say nothing about anything going on except for Ukraine.
That's because Democrats are about to be destroyed, and all three of you fucktards know it.
RCP just took one of the 8 senate tossups and gave it to the GOP today.
Funny that. The fake polls make Biden*'s current approval numbers look as good as Trump's average right now, but Democrats are scared shitless about what's coming.
But keep talking about Russia when nobody cares.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20220921.
FOMC participants expect supply and demand conditions in the labor market to come into better balance over time, easing the upward pressure on wages and prices. The median projection in the SEP for the unemployment rate rises to 4.4 percent at the end of next year, one half percentage point higher than in the June projections. Over the next three years, the median unemployment rate runs above the median estimate of its longer-run normal level.
Sadly, when an American reads a paragraph such this one, most fail to comprehend its meaning.
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:Quote:Stupid stupid stupid.
Originally posted by CAPTAINCRUNCH:Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:Quote:
Originally posted by captaincrunch:
Do facts and logic say that those centers were in Bucha? Izyum? Kharkiv? No? Huh. So much for your facts.
Blame Kiev for massacring civilians. Yanni,like they've been doing all along I know that fact causes your mental gears to lock up, but that is reality. No matter how much smoke and metal shavings blow out of your ears.
What's your proof? Just saying something doesn't make it so, and it sure doesn't answer my question.
Were those pro Russian Ukrainians that you say Kiev bombed in Bucha? Izyum? Kharkiv? If not, looks like Russians murdered and tortured the Ukrainians there.
OR...
Are you saying that zero Ukrainian civilians have been harmed by any invading Russian troops?
Are you saying that ALL Ukrabinian civilian deaths/harm/torture that has happen since Russia invaded Ukraine has been done by Ukrainians?
Were these ppl killed by flechettes? Other ordnance? Tortured and murdered? You CAN tell what happened, and when, and therefore assign responsibility. But the two possibilities- having been shelled or individually killed- aren't mix-n-match possibilities. They might have been shelled by Russians or Kiev. They might have been murdered individually by Russians or Kiev.
But not "[either]Kiev bombed or Russians murdered and tortured". That's just inexpressibly stupid.
it's like those street hawkers doing the old shell game. Meanwhile: What's your proof? Just saying something doesn't make it so, and it sure doesn't answer my question.
Were those pro Russian Ukrainians that you say Kiev bombed in Bucha? Izyum? Kharkiv? If not, looks like Russians murdered and tortured the Ukrainians there.
Keep deflecting, I'll keep asking.
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Bonus dbl - extra stupid stupid stupid for Ziggy
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Quote:
Originally posted by SECOND
Trump
Trumpety Trump
T.r.u.m.p.
Trump?
TRUMP!
Seems the only topic than can outcompete RUSSIARUSSIA! for SECOND'S attention is Trump.
Yanno, like the DNC today.
/snicker
-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE someone poor - William Blake
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Quote:No matter how many times you ask the question, it's still too nonsensical to answer.
Originally posted by CAPTAINCRUNCH:Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:Quote:Stupid stupid stupid.
Originally posted by CAPTAINCRUNCH:Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:Quote:
Originally posted by captaincrunch:
Do facts and logic say that those centers were in Bucha? Izyum? Kharkiv? No? Huh. So much for your facts.
Blame Kiev for massacring civilians. Yanni,like they've been doing all along I know that fact causes your mental gears to lock up, but that is reality. No matter how much smoke and metal shavings blow out of your ears.
What's your proof? Just saying something doesn't make it so, and it sure doesn't answer my question.
Were those pro Russian Ukrainians that you say Kiev bombed in Bucha? Izyum? Kharkiv? If not, looks like Russians murdered and tortured the Ukrainians there.
OR...
Are you saying that zero Ukrainian civilians have been harmed by any invading Russian troops?
Are you saying that ALL Ukrabinian civilian deaths/harm/torture that has happen since Russia invaded Ukraine has been done by Ukrainians?
Were these ppl killed by flechettes? Other ordnance? Tortured and murdered? You CAN tell what happened, and when, and therefore assign responsibility. But the two possibilities- having been shelled or individually killed- aren't mix-n-match possibilities. They might have been shelled by Russians or Kiev. They might have been murdered individually by Russians or Kiev.
But not "[either]Kiev bombed or Russians murdered and tortured". That's just inexpressibly stupid.
Meanwhile: What's your proof? Just saying something doesn't make it so, and it sure doesn't answer my question.
Were those pro Russian Ukrainians that you say Kiev bombed in Bucha? Izyum? Kharkiv? If not, looks like Russians murdered and tortured the Ukrainians there.
Keep deflecting, I'll keep asking.
The people killed in Bucha were killed by flechettes. Those are dispersed with force by artillery shells, you don't stick them into people's bodies as a form of torture.
-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE someone poor - William Blake
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