Russia Invades Ukraine. Again
POSTED BY: captaincrunch
UPDATED: Sunday, September 6, 2026 21:09
VIEWED: 562266
PAGE 157 of 1104
Experts predicted a stalemate in Ukraine, here’s why they keep getting it wrong
Opinion by Orysia Lutsevych
Ukraine’s recent stunning success in liberating a huge swathe of its territory from Russian occupation directly contradicted months of consensus opinion by commentators and experts who predicted that the war had settled into an indefinite stalemate. Public perception of the conflict, as well as important policy decisions, are swayed by such assumptions. At this stage we must ask: why do experts keep overestimating Russian strength and underestimating Ukraine’s military capabilities, and how can they avoid doing so again?
One obvious point is that western states have gradually increased supplies of powerful and sophisticated weapons, and Ukraine’s forces have convincingly demonstrated they can use them to powerful effect on the battlefield. But this is only part of the story.
By focusing on military hardware, experts often miss the “software” of war: the quality of leadership, morale and motivation, decision-making and governance and the engagement of society.
War is an expression of political culture on the battlefield. And there are stark differences between Ukrainian and Russian culture. Many in the west mistakenly thought Ukraine was just like Russia, but weaker, more corrupt and chaotic. In fact, while Ukraine is by no means perfect, it is more agile and decentralised, compared to the autocratic and rigid Russian state.
On paper, Russia’s military power is massive, with three times the forces, and a 10-fold higher military budget. It looked like Ukraine had no chance of withstanding a full-scale invasion. But it did. President Zelenskiy was extremely effective in stabilising the situation by demonstrating personal bravery, staying in the capital and delivering regular briefings. This wasn’t just a media exercise; his work in boosting morale and organising society around supporting the war effort in novel ways has been crucial to Ukraine’s success.
This societal mobilisation and cohesion have paid off throughout the conflict. The high morale of the Ukrainian armed forces reflects the general societal resolve to resist Russian aggression. Ukraine’s military budget is in effect much larger than the official state funding. Ukrainian citizens and the private sector work to support the army every day, and every company, family and city is providing additional support to soldiers on the battlefield. News outlets fundraise and buy drones for units where their journalists are serving. Agricultural companies send night vision goggles, used all-terrain vehicles, mobile showers, chocolate and much more to employees who have signed up to fight. Private companies of all sizes invest millions in upgrading Soviet equipment with modern microchips and electronics, add armour to vehicles, assemble drones and retune communication devices. Millions of these invisible threads connect soldiers to families and companies back home. They feel they are supported; they know there is a home front.
Moreover, many in the west have underestimated the basic intellectual and combat capacity of Ukraine’s forces. They have substantially improved after eight years of holding back the Russian incursion into Donbas. The strategic deception of drawing more Russian forces to Kherson while concealing the gathering counter-offensive in Kharkiv in the north would be seen as a huge success for any army. The commander-in-chief, General Valeriy Zaluzhny, is 49 years old and has combat experience in Donbas. Younger officers with promise are quickly promoted, and unit commanders are empowered to act independently and provide feedback. He is turning the army into an agile and modern network of truly collaborative units.
The societal crowdsourcing approach employed by Ukrainians has also seriously impeded Russian capacity to advance, occupy and gather intelligence. A new crowdsourcing intelligence tool allows Ukrainians to report Russian collaborators and saboteurs instantly and anonymously. Over 300,000 Ukrainians have used it. Vario
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Quote:
Originally posted by SECOND:Quote:You are doing the same kind of bragging/lyin... blah blah blah
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
No. it's not. No it's not. No it's not.
And the great part is, November 8th is getting really close.
Thanks for proving me right. The only threads you two idiots posted in all day long was the three Russia threads.
Democrats are done. They've got nothing positive to run on.
But keep focusing on this and being delusional that anybody but college educated white folk give one single shit about Ukraine.
And, spoiler alert... The rest of us know that you don't really give a single shit about Ukraine either.
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Falsus in unum, falsus in omnibus
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Quote:Until Pearl Harbor, most Americans, except college educated white folk, didn't care how many millions Hitler killed. The GOP protected Hitler from evil President Roosevelt with his wasteful spending on the lend-lease program, which was a way of helping Hitler's enemies. The GOP still says FDR was a terrible President with wasteful government spending, a Commie, except Biden is even worse.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Thanks for proving me right. The only threads you two idiots posted in all day long was the three Russia threads.
Democrats are done. They've got nothing positive to run on.
But keep focusing on this and being delusional that anybody but college educated white folk give one single shit about Ukraine.
And, spoiler alert... The rest of us know that you don't really give a single shit about Ukraine either.
In the 1938 election, the GOP gained seats in Congress and Democrats lost the support of angry poor white trash, who were angry about blacks and foreigners, Jews in particular, fleeing from Hitler to America. The GOP gained 81 seats in Congress and gained 12 state governorships.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1938_United_States_elections
In the 1940 election, the GOP gained 4 more Senators and 2 more governorships. Angry poor white trash were very pleased with their continuing gains and hoped to end FDR's wasteful spending on foreign wars after the next election in 1942. Pearl Harbor temporarily slowed that GOP plan.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1940_United_States_elections
In 1942, the GOP gained 9 Senate seats and 47 House seats. Angry poor white trash hated WWII. FDR was losing the war! So much wasteful government spending and still the war wasn't over! Hitler was winning! If a Republican was President, the war would have already been won. FDR was an incompetent commander-in-chief. FDR allowed the Japanese to bomb Pearl Harbor, according to the GOP.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1942_United_States_elections
GOP says Roosevelt knew that Japan planned to attack Pearl Harbor and just let it happen
https://fee.org/articles/the-day-of-deceit-the-truth-about-fdr-and-pea
rl-harbor/
Lend-Lease https://www.fdrlibrary.org/lend-lease
09/19/2022 03:16 PM EDT
Ukrainian air defenses have shot down at least 55 Russian warplanes since the start of the war in late February, a U.S. general said Monday, saying the huge losses are a major reason Russian fighter planes and bombers have not played much of a role in the conflict.
Ukrainians took down those planes using older Russian-made air defenses, forcing the Russians to severely limit the sorties they flew near Ukrainian positions. The shootdown also cut Russian ground forces off from the kind of air support they would need to take and hold territory, Air Forces in Europe and Africa commander Gen. James Hecker told reporters at the annual Air Force Association conference.
That lack of protection from the sky has been one of the big surprises of the war, as most analysts expected Russia to quickly establish dominance over Ukraine’s airspace in the early days of the invasion. That failure allowed the Ukrainian air force to regroup and survive mostly intact. Hecker estimated that Ukraine retains about 80 percent of its air force, seven months into the war.
At the Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting at Ramstein Air Base in Germany this month, one of the “big asks” from the Ukrainians was more SA-10 and SA-11 air defense systems in order to fend off Russian drones and aircraft, Hecker said.
The U.S. doesn’t produce or use the missiles, so the onus is on European allies to supply them to Kyiv.
https://www.politico.com/amp/news/2022/09/19/ukraine-has-shot-down-55-
russian-warplanes-00057569
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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Misleading analogy.
Magic Eightball says TRY AGAIN.
-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE someone poor - William Blake
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Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Misleading analogy.
Magic Eightball says TRY AGAIN.
-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE someone poor - William Blake
The two idiots talking only about Russia again today, huh?
--------------------------------------------------
Falsus in unum, falsus in omnibus
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Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Misleading analogy.
Magic Goofball says TRY AGAIN.
ZIGGY: Well, they used human shields, didn't they?
What the fck would be the purpose of using your own people as shields when Russians are indiscriminately killing any/all Ukrainians they can?!?!? Fcksake, ZIGGY!
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Quote:I find it completely unsurprising that 6ix is worried about his future and blames Democrats. I have seen this before in the 1960's. I'm 70 now and remember East Texans claiming FDR allowed Pearl Harbor to happen, and that nobody would have attacked America if Herbert Hoover had been President, and that Social Security was not a government program because it took your money before giving it back to you, that Nixon was the greatest wartime President ever, that Germany understood the Jewish threat, that General Robert E Lee was an excellent man. If the truth that Lee was a traitor to his country was mentioned, somebody would get hit. Those East Texans had children who voted for Trump twice and will vote for him again because he represents what they believe in. And if Ukraine is conquered by Russia, it is of no concern to them, but they will blame the Democrats as they blame Democrats for all their struggles, and those of their children, to remain in the middle class. According to those East Texans, America has been nearly destroyed by Socialism, Mexicans, and Jews who run the country behind the cover of the Democratic Party. Did you know the President of Ukraine is Jewish? That explains everything, at least according to the angry poor white trash in East Texas.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Misleading analogy.
Magic Eightball says TRY AGAIN.
-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE someone poor - William Blake
The two idiots talking only about Russia again today, huh?
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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Quote:I'm sorry that you're butt-hurt bc you can't argue a point with facts or logic.
Originally posted by captaincrunch:Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Misleading analogy.
Magic Goofball says TRY AGAIN.
ZIGGY: Well, they used human shields, didn't they?
What the fck would be the purpose of using your own people as shields when Russians are indiscriminately killing any/all Ukrainians they can?!?!? Fcksake, ZIGGY!
Kiev has been indiscrimtely shelling UKRAINIAN civilian centers for YEARS, killing thousands. Clearly, they don't mind killing SOME Ukrainians (ie Russian-speaking ones) or using SOME Ukrainians (Russian-speaking ones) as human shields (documented by Amnesty International). You've never accepted the fact that there is a political and cultural divide in Ukraine, and that Kiev sees SOME "Ukrianians" not as fellow citizens but as a subgroup that is to be ethnically cleansed.
-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE someone poor - William Blake
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Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:Quote:I'm sorry that you're butt-hurt bc you can't argue a point with facts or logic.
Originally posted by captaincrunch:Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Misleading analogy.
Magic Goofball says TRY AGAIN.
ZIGGY: Well, they used human shields, didn't they?
What the fck would be the purpose of using your own people as shields when Russians are indiscriminately killing any/all Ukrainians they can?!?!? Fcksake, ZIGGY!
Kiev has been indiscrimtely shelling UKRAINIAN civilian centers for YEARS, killing thousands. Clearly, they don't mind killing SOME Ukrainians (ie Russian-speaking ones) or using SOME Ukrainians (Russian-speaking ones) as human shields (documented by Amnesty International). You've never accepted the fact that there is a political and cultural divide in Ukraine, and that Kiev sees SOME "Ukrianians" not as fellow citizens but as a subgroup that is to be ethnically cleansed.
Not to worry. One thing we can be sure of, is that Signyms' reputation will never recover from her years of pro Putin posts.
T
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