***** Top Gun: Maverick *****
POSTED BY: JEWELSTAITEFAN
UPDATED: Saturday, April 5, 2025 22:46
VIEWED: 7585
PAGE 4 of 10
Next weekend's new WIDE releases as follows:
FALL: https://www.imdb.com/title/tt15325794/
PG-13; Survival Thriller
Quote:
Best friends Becky and Hunter find themselves at the top of a 2,000-foot radio tower.
Probably not going to be anything special or anything most people will remember was a thing a month or two later.
Mack and Rita: https://www.imdb.com/title/tt14330236/?ref_=nv_sr_srsg_0
PG-13; Comedy
Quote:
A 30-year-old writer (Elizabeth Lail) spends a wild weekend in Palm Springs and wakes up to find she has magically transformed into her 70-year-old self (Diane Keaton).
Hmmmmmm... No comment on this one yet. Is Diane Keaton still a draw in 2022? Honestly, I wasn't even aware she was still alive. No offense. Good for her.
Bodies Bodies Bodies: https://www.imdb.com/title/tt8110652/?ref_=nv_sr_srsg_0
R; Comedy/Horror/Thriller
I like A24 for sure, but I hate this genre, so anything I have to say about it would be coming from a place of pretty extreme bias. It's probably not great though, simply because it was already released this weekend in only 6 theaters and is going to be opening wide next weekend (at a time where there were quite a few empty theater screens and they ended up being taken by Bullet Train, giving that movie Brad Pitt's widest opening weekend release ever).
We'll have to see how many theaters "WIDE" means for this movie. I fully expect it to do about as well as Vengeance did, with a spot in the low top 10 temporarily then quickly falling off the chart.
All in all, I don't think any of them will even hit the Top 5 in first weekend, which is just more good news for the longevity of Maverick, and would likely see Maverick bumped up a spot or two.
Early predictions for next weekend... (These will certainly change when we see what the theater counts are going to be)
1. Bullet Train
2. DC League of Super Pets
3. Nope
4. Top Gun: Maverick
5. Thor: Love and Thunder
6. Fall
7. Mack & Rita
8. Minions: Rise of Gru
9. Where the Crawdads Sing
10. Bodies, Bodies, Bodies
If Bodies, Bodies, Bodies does well, Easter Sunday, The Black Phone and Elvis will not make the Top 10. If BBB is a stinker, Elvis will take the 10th spot.
--------------------------------------------------
Falsus in unum, falsus in omnibus
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Full Weekend Projections are in...
1 Bullet Train $30,125,000
2 DC League of Super Pets $11,200,000
3 Nope $8,500,000
4 Thor: Love and Thunder $7,600,000
5 Minions: The Rise of Gru $7,110,000
6 Top Gun: Maverick $7,030,000
7 Where the Crawdads Sing $5,650,000
8 Easter Sunday $5,250,000
9 Elvis $4,000,000
10 The Black Phone $1,460,000
Unless anything changes when the real dollar amounts roll in tomorrow or Tuesday, here's the reults of the predictions.
Mine:
GOOD 1. Bullet Train
GOOD 2. DC League of Super Pets
GOOD 3. Nope
GOOD 4. Thor: Love and Thunder
BAD. 5. Easter Sunday............(Actual 5th: Minions: Rise of Gru)
BAD. 6. Minions: Rise of Gru.....(Actual 6th: Top Gun: Maverick)
BAD. 7. Top Gun: Maverick........(Actual 7th: Where the Crawdads Sing)
BAD. 8. Where the Crawdads Sing..(Actual 8th: Easter Sunday)
GOOD 9. Elvis
GOOD 10. The Black Phone
The Numbers
GOOD 1. Bullet Train
BAD. 2. Nope.....................(Actual 2nd: DC League of Super Pets)
BAD. 3. DC League of Super Pets..(Actual 3rd: Nope)
GOOD 4. Thor: Love and Thunder
GOOD 5. Minions: Rise of Gru
BAD. 6. Easter Sunday............(Actual 6th: Top Gun: Maverick)
BAD. 7. Top Gun: Maverick........(Actual 7th: Where the Crawdads Sing)
BAD. 8. Where the Crawdads Sing..(Actual 8th: Easter Sunday)
GOOD 9. Elvis
GOOD 10. The Black Phone
I'd think the only one that even has any possibility of changing would be Maverick and Minions since there's only $80k difference between them. Everything else should be safely out of range of pulling an upset.
With this new info, I'm already changing my predictions for next week. If there's only $900,000 between Nope and Maverick already, I'm bumping Maverick up to 3rd place next weekend.
1. Bullet Train
2. DC League of Super Pets
3. Top Gun: Maverick
4. Nope
5. Thor: Love and Thunder
6. Fall
7. Mack & Rita
8. Minions: Rise of Gru
9. Where the Crawdads Sing
10. Bodies, Bodies, Bodies OR Elvis
These might change depending on what I hear about the 3 new releases, but as far as movies already released this weekend, I'm firm on this being the order they place unless some insane theater count changes happen.
--------------------------------------------------
Falsus in unum, falsus in omnibus
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
With this new info, I'm already changing my predictions for next week. If there's only $900,000 between Nope and Maverick already, I'm bumping Maverick up to 3rd place next weekend.
1. Bullet Train
2. DC League of Super Pets
3. Top Gun: Maverick
4. Nope
5. Thor: Love and Thunder
6. Fall
7. Mack & Rita
8. Minions: Rise of Gru
9. Where the Crawdads Sing
10. Bodies, Bodies, Bodies OR Elvis
These might change depending on what I hear about the 3 new releases, but as far as movies already released this weekend, I'm firm on this being the order they place unless some insane theater count changes happen.
There was actually $1.5 Million difference between Nope and Maverick, not just $900k. I'm still putting Maverick above Nope next week based off of the weekly drops. Even with a conservative estimate, giving +8% favor to Nope and -7% handicap against Maverick, Nope still loses by $1 Million next weekend.
I'll look closer to the weekend, but the only change in the top 5 that I think could be a possibility is Minions actually doing better than Thor.
It's hard to really predict anything about Fall and the Keaton flick. I'm seeing some real negative buzz about Keaton's movie, with insults about it looking out of touch like some 90's movie. The Bodies movie seems to be met with pure derision.
Fall actually has me pretty intrigued after looking deeper into it. I don't know anybody who's in it, but assuming that the two leads are good actresses that can sell it, this might be another "Bottle Movie" like Locke, Phone Booth, Circle and Devil. I actually really like that genre, personally. I don't know how that would translate in the box office though. I'm interested in learning more about it.
--------------------------------------------------
Falsus in unum, falsus in omnibus
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
There was actually $1.5 Million difference between Nope and Maverick, not just $900k. I'm still putting Maverick above Nope next week based off of the weekly drops. Even with a conservative estimate, giving +8% favor to Nope and -7% handicap against Maverick, Nope still loses by $1 Million next weekend.
I'll look closer to the weekend, but the only change in the top 5 that I think could be a possibility is Minions actually doing better than Thor.
That prediction didn't take long to pan out...
Monday's Box Office top 6:
1 Bullet Train $2,690,972
2 DC League of Super Pets $1,519,703
3 Nope $1,091,145
4 Minions: The Rise of Gru $1,090,450
5 Top Gun: Maverick $1,056,561
6 Thor: Love and Thunder $1,001,197
Thor falls to 6th place from 4th, falling behind both Minions and Maverick, making $50k less than Maverick which took back 5th from 6th.
Minions steals 4th back from it's 5th place weekend showing, netting less than $35k more than Maverick.
Nope holds on to 3rd place by the skin of its teeth, making only $695 (yes, six hundred and ninety-five dollars) more than Minions.
I'm now 100% certain that unless any of the three new flicks being released Friday have a spectacular showing, Top Gun: Maverick is taking back the 3rd place spot. I still don't think Super Pets could ever drop enough next weekend for Maverick to take back 2nd place.
--------------------------------------------------
Falsus in unum, falsus in omnibus
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
I stopped in for a film at a local cineplex, with 18 screens.
did not see any Sold Out shows. Maverick is back up to 6 showings per day, 4 in one screen, and another screen has 2 matinee shows.
Nope had one screen, the smallest in the building. While walking past, it looked like it had less than 30 seats total in it.
Maverick had previously been down to 4 shows per day, and then 5 shows per day. I think both of those weeks I saw Sold Out shows.
Temps are the coolest here in weeks, so not as much hiding in a movie theater happening.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
I stopped in for a film at a local cineplex, with 18 screens.
did not see any Sold Out shows. Maverick is back up to 6 showings per day, 4 in one screen, and another screen has 2 matinee shows.
Nope had one screen, the smallest in the building. While walking past, it looked like it had less than 30 seats total in it.
Maverick had previously been down to 4 shows per day, and then 5 shows per day. I think both of those weeks I saw Sold Out shows.
Temps are the coolest here in weeks, so not as much hiding in a movie theater happening.
That's interesting. Thanks for the info.
I was actually thinking that overall we might see one of those more rare expansions of older movies adding a few hundred additional theaters nationally. Easter Sunday turned out to be a turd so that's going to lose a lot quickly and your observation about Nope seems to be in line with what I'm seeing. They should both free up some spots for Maverick. I think it's even possible that Minions might even pick up a few more theaters unless one of next weeks movies gets a ton of them.
I expect there to be little to no change for Bullet Train and Super Pets. There really wouldn't be any reason to expect their counts to go down because there isn't any blockbusters coming out next week, and I don't see how they'd go up since they're already at 4,357 and 4,332, respectively.
The cooler weather might make 3 weeks in a row where The-Numbers is way over the actual weekend box office take with their predictions if they don't temper them.
I still haven't really heard anything about the 3 new flicks that I haven't had to go out of my way to find. Info for Fall is almost non-existent, and it happens to be the only one I think I'll actually watch one day unless I find out it's not the "Bottle Movie" genre I think it might be from the little info I've gleaned. I'm looking forward to seeing the theater counts on Thursday.
--------------------------------------------------
Falsus in unum, falsus in omnibus
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
There was actually $1.5 Million difference between Nope and Maverick, not just $900k. I'm still putting Maverick above Nope next week based off of the weekly drops. Even with a conservative estimate, giving +8% favor to Nope and -7% handicap against Maverick, Nope still loses by $1 Million next weekend.
I'll look closer to the weekend, but the only change in the top 5 that I think could be a possibility is Minions actually doing better than Thor.
That prediction didn't take long to pan out...
Monday's Box Office top 6:
1 Bullet Train $2,690,972
2 DC League of Super Pets $1,519,703
3 Nope $1,091,145
4 Minions: The Rise of Gru $1,090,450
5 Top Gun: Maverick $1,056,561
6 Thor: Love and Thunder $1,001,197
Good news for Minions... It just took 3rd from Nope today.
1 Bullet Train Sony Pictures $3,851,738
2 DC League of Super Pets $2,139,435
3 Minions: The Rise of Gru $1,388,785
4 Nope $1,263,300
5 Top Gun: Maverick $1,215,382
6 Thor: Love and Thunder $1,203,009
Tuesday is cheap ticket day though which is good for the kids. The two kids movies almost did as well as Bullet Train did today. I don't expect Minions to stay ahead of Maverick through the weekend. It will probably get 4th or 5th place tomorrow. Still going to say that Super Pets has at least one more weekend above Maverick.
It looks like Thor and Nope are probably done at this point.
--------------------------------------------------
Falsus in unum, falsus in omnibus
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Well... Not that I was going to see it in the theater anyway, but I certainly wouldn't now.
https://www.theverge.com/2022/8/10/23299565/fall-2022-movie-fucks-gone
-ai-technology-flawless-f-bomb
Quote:
Fork me: ‘Fall’ movie removed more than 30 F-bombs with deepfake dub technology
I'll wait for the director's cut, although what little there is to read about it otherwise sounds pretty good.
Supposedly, Keaton's movie has been scaled back to a Limited Release, but The Numbers isn't showing that yet. I'll have to see tomorrow what the theater counts are, but that's going to bring it way down on the list.
Variety says that Bodies, Bodies, Bodies is going to do good. They think it will do better than Fall, Nope and Thor, so even if it's a surprise hit I wouldn't expect it to do better than Maverick. Everybody else seems to think it sucks and it only has a 5.9 on IMDB right now.
Edited to Add: I just watched the trailer for Fall. Yeah. I'm going to watch that one. Hopefully the R-Rated cut gets put out after it's out of the theaters.
--------------------------------------------------
Falsus in unum, falsus in omnibus
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
I was actually thinking that overall we might see one of those more rare expansions of older movies adding a few hundred additional theaters nationally. Easter Sunday turned out to be a turd so that's going to lose a lot quickly and your observation about Nope seems to be in line with what I'm seeing. They should both free up some spots for Maverick.
2 out of 3 ain't bad...
1. Maverick adds 421 theaters this weekend to 3,181, making it the 3rd largest theater count.
2. Nope loses 258 theaters for a total of 2,758, making it the 8th largest count.
3. Easter Sunday inexplicably adds 1 whole theater, for the 4th largest count at 3,176. I'm calling some woke bullshit shenanigans there since it's been bouncing between 8th and 9th place all week since Saturday, after opening in 6th place. No other explanation for that. It will continue to do poorly despite the huge theater count and I doubt that it will even make top 10 for the weekend.
New release theater counts:
1. Mack & Rita 1,900
2. Fall - 1,548
3. Bodies, Bodies, Bodies 1,200
Top gun took 3rd place last night by $20k over Nope (4th), which was $81k over Thor (5th), which was $7k over Minions (6th).
These were my predictions for the weekend on the 7th:
Quote:
1. Bullet Train
2. DC League of Super Pets
3. Top Gun: Maverick
4. Nope
5. Thor: Love and Thunder
6. Fall
7. Mack & Rita
8. Minions: Rise of Gru
9. Where the Crawdads Sing
10. Bodies, Bodies, Bodies OR Elvis
Without having read the predictions from The Numbers today, this is still the list I'm going with. And Maverick will take back 3rd place.
I don't think that Mack & Rita will do better than Fall, despite the additional 352 theaters. That would probably be where I get it wrong if I do though.
--------------------------------------------------
Falsus in unum, falsus in omnibus
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
The numbers be hating on Mack & Rita more than me, and don't even give it a spot in the top 10. We agree on Easter Sunday though, despite it having 4th place in theater counts.
Here's their predictions...
1. Bullet Train
2. DC League of Super Pets
3. Thor: Love and Thunder
4. Nope
5. Minions: Rise of Gru
6. Top Gun: Maverick
7. Where the Crawdads Sing
8. Bodies, Bodies, Bodies
9. Elvis
10. Fall
We'll see what happens, but I think TN is way off base this week. They do mention at the bottom of the article that Top Gun: Maverick "could" take 3rd place this weekend though.
They also mention that ET is getting a re-release to 389 IMAX theaters and could pull in $3 Million. I wasn't aware of that until now. That could screw up either of our 8th to 10th place predictions.
https://www.the-numbers.com/news/252420830-Weekend-predictions-Bullet-
Train-favorite-to-top-slow-weekend
--------------------------------------------------
Falsus in unum, falsus in omnibus
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME