***** Top Gun: Maverick *****
POSTED BY: JEWELSTAITEFAN
UPDATED: Saturday, April 5, 2025 22:46
VIEWED: 7585
PAGE 6 of 10
Maverick pulled in more than half of what the weekend's number one flick Dragon Ball did yesterday. It was also in spitting distance of Bullet Train with only $87k between them, and it was less than $135k behind the weekend's number two Beast.
It will roll over all three of them in less than two weeks.
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We got a whole page of posts here, mostly about other films at the Box Office.
Maverick has been out since Memorial Day Weekend, about 3 months ago.
My 2 local theaters have 3 showings per day at each, missing the late showing.
So I don't feel bad about mentioning some stuff, perhaps spoilers.
The revamped storyline, to not tick off China and their Box Office, is making the belligerant someplace like Iraq or Iran.
The film is about the US Navy. As in SEA NAVY. The story is about, and shows, taking off from a boat - an Aircraft Carrier - and flying across water, before entering enemy territory when they cross over the beach, from water to land. The target in the film is not land-locked.
After the mission target, they are in the mountains, volcanic ranges, and there are forests and snow.
I didn't see a bunch of sandy desert in the film.
There were a whole bunch of different photos of the original Top Gun used, and I mean a bunch of different shots, different poses, different angles, different people in the frames, almost as if there was a film crew around for this supposed Top Secret Mission. Not just one photo used repeatedly during this film.
In the credits, I saw something weird the first time. It was deep in, like the technical credits, and it said something like "TOPGUN001 - Tom Cruise"
I didn't see any other credit similar to that, and I didn't know what it was supposed to mean.
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89 days in release and Maverick is still pulling in close to a million bucks a day domestically. Way over that if you average it with the weekends.
Conversely, Beast has been out only 4 days and was already under a million bucks on day 3.
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Been way too busy to try to keep up with any predictions the last week or two. In fact, it only occured to me that it was already Saturday morning and I hadn't even looked at The Numbers articles until now.
After getting a sad 2nd place last week, Beast inexplicably gets the widest release this weekend. Despite that fact, The numbers believes it will only get 6th place, below Maverick's 5th place.
They believe The Invitation (New) will get 1st, Dragon Ball will get 2nd, Three Thousand Years of Longing (New) will get 3rd and Bullet Train will get 4th.
But they also say that their model for The Invitation is pretty jenky and could get as much as $11 Million or as little as $7 Million.
Their 2nd, 3rd and 4th spots are all super close to each other at $6.0 to $6.8 Million. while Maverick sits just a little over $5.1 Million.
The prediction for the weekend is a very low take of only $50 to $60 Million, which is the lowest since February.
Learning from prior lessons though, they do mention at the end of the article that they can't rule out Top Gun: Maverick or Bullet Train taking 1st place if The Invitation fails to draw an audience.
If Maverick took 1st place in its 14th weekend that would be an unprecedented feat.
I don't think that's very likely, but there's a good chance that it takes better than the predicted 5th place, and the 3 movies right above it won't be for very long.
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I'm hesitant to say that Maverick took 3rd place last night on it's 92nd day in the theater. Projections are in, and it looks to have beaten both Dragon Ball and Beast by $49k and $50k. That's too close to call though until the real numbers come in.
The Invitation came in first like TN says it would, with just shy of twice what Maverick made. Bullet Train was only $190k ahead of Maverick.
We'll see how the weekend plays out, but after seeing these numbers I think the only thing that might hold Maverick back from taking 1st place next weekend is if there are enough people out there hungry enough for a 2nd viewing of Spider-Man: No Way Home with the extra scenes. Jaws is also getting a re-release next weekend too, it appears.
I think it's kind of cool they're doing those re-releases. I said in the Cinema forum years ago they should do this. I never saw Avatar before. Maybe when it gets re-released next month I'll go and see it with my Dad and my brother.
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Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
The big news for Maverick this weekend is that it’s now the 6th-highest-grossing film of all time at the domestic box office, after it overtook Avengers: Infinity War on Friday.
...
Maverick is 12th overall on the Worldwide chart right now.
It should have no problem knocking off Frozen II in a few weeks for 11th.
I think it will have a decent chance to move up two more to bump off The Avengers and Furious 7, but that would depend entirely on how well it is still doing internationally, and The Numbers just puts those figures as a lump sum for each country and doesn't do a weekly breakdown, so it would take a little work from that site to figure out how much it's still doing overseas. It would need to make $112 Million more to take 9th place.
That's probably where it would end though without a re-release. At that point it would still need an additional $140 Million to take 8th place from The Lion King, at which point taking 7th place would be possible with just 18 Million more.
My prediction is that it will be able to take 9th place, which would put it only behind 3 Comic Book Movies on the International list. Avengers: End Game and Infinity War, and Spider-Man: No Way Home.
PLACEHOLDER: $720,000,000 is the current International figure for Maverick as of the morning of 08/22/2022. We'll see where that number is next week.
Shenanigans?
6 days ago the estimate for international take was $720,000,000. I look today and the "actual" number is nearly $7 Million less at $713,427,630.
My guess right now is they update that number once per week with weekend projections on Sunday and a solid figure later during the week and they were seriously wrong last weekend.
It's impossible to see how many theaters there are even still open in foreign countries, at least for me, so I can't really say anything about how well it will do there. Instead of comparing from Monday to Monday, it's better to take the number from the 28th and compare it to next Sunday morning before predictions come in.
As it stands now, it's still in 12 place internationally and would need $44 Million to overtake Frozen II for 11th, and $114 Million to take 9th and displace The Avengers and Furious 7. I think $44 is still easily doable in America alone if it's allowed to stay in theaters for a few more months, but if there is no action internationally it won't move beyond 11th place internationally.
Domestically, it is still in 6th place behind Black Panther, but only by around $12 Million. It should have that within 20 days. There's about zero chance it will take 4th place from Avatar though, since it would still need $73 Million plus whatever Avatar makes in September when it's re-released.
5th and 11th place aren't bad though, especially in a post Plandemic world and considering how low it's first weekend gross was when compared to the other blockbusters at the top of the charts that sometimes started with 3 times as much money opening weekend.
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Universal's projection puts Beast above Maverick for the weekend by $150k. That might be wishful thinking.
It's strange that the projections had Maverick at 3rd on Friday, 4th on Saturday and 5th on Sunday; for a 4th place overall. We'll have to see what the actual numbers are on Monday or Tuesday. It could still take 4th from Beast, but it the projections would have to be off by $850k to beat Bullet Train and $2.5 Million to beat The Invitation this weekend, so it's doubtful it would get higher than 3rd, max.
The Invitation is the only movie in theaters this week that could beat Maverick during its 15th weekend though.
Who knows what "Honk for Jesus, Save Your Soul." will do next weekend, and there is a pretty good chance Spider-Man: No Way Home's re-release will do better than Maverick too.
Hilariously, Clerks III is a thing that Kevin Smith did and it isn't even getting a wide release next weekend. It will open wide on the 13th, but Kevin's squandered a lot of good will from previous fans so that's probably not going to do very well.
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Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
The big news for Maverick this weekend is that it’s now the 6th-highest-grossing film of all time at the domestic box office, after it overtook Avengers: Infinity War on Friday.
...
Maverick is 12th overall on the Worldwide chart right now.
It should have no problem knocking off Frozen II in a few weeks for 11th.
I think it will have a decent chance to move up two more to bump off The Avengers and Furious 7, but that would depend entirely on how well it is still doing internationally, and The Numbers just puts those figures as a lump sum for each country and doesn't do a weekly breakdown, so it would take a little work from that site to figure out how much it's still doing overseas. It would need to make $112 Million more to take 9th place.
That's probably where it would end though without a re-release. At that point it would still need an additional $140 Million to take 8th place from The Lion King, at which point taking 7th place would be possible with just 18 Million more.
My prediction is that it will be able to take 9th place, which would put it only behind 3 Comic Book Movies on the International list. Avengers: End Game and Infinity War, and Spider-Man: No Way Home.
PLACEHOLDER: $720,000,000 is the current International figure for Maverick as of the morning of 08/22/2022. We'll see where that number is next week.
Shenanigans?
6 days ago the estimate for international take was $720,000,000. I look today and the "actual" number is nearly $7 Million less at $713,427,630.
My guess right now is they update that number once per week with weekend projections on Sunday and a solid figure later during the week and they were seriously wrong last weekend.
It's impossible to see how many theaters there are even still open in foreign countries, at least for me, so I can't really say anything about how well it will do there. Instead of comparing from Monday to Monday, it's better to take the number from the 28th and compare it to next Sunday morning before predictions come in.
As it stands now, it's still in 12 place internationally and would need $44 Million to overtake Frozen II for 11th, and $114 Million to take 9th and displace The Avengers and Furious 7. I think $44 is still easily doable in America alone if it's allowed to stay in theaters for a few more months, but if there is no action internationally it won't move beyond 11th place internationally.
Domestically, it is still in 6th place behind Black Panther, but only by around $12 Million. It should have that within 20 days. There's about zero chance it will take 4th place from Avatar though, since it would still need $73 Million plus whatever Avatar makes in September when it's re-released.
5th and 11th place aren't bad though, especially in a post Plandemic world and considering how low it's first weekend gross was when compared to the other blockbusters at the top of the charts that sometimes started with 3 times as much money opening weekend.
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UPDATE:
08/22/2022: International Box Office Projection: $720,000,000
08/28/2022: International Box Office Actual: $713,427,630
08/29/2022: International Box Office Projection: $731,200,000
We'll see how much lower than the projection it is, probably tomorrow.
If that number is correct, Maverick is now only less than $23 Million below Frozen II for 11th place internationally.
08/29/2022: Domestic Box Office Projection: $691,213,000
And if this number is correct, Maverick is now only less than $9 Million below Black Panther for 5th place in the US.
EDIT:
US actual total is in...
08/29/2022: Domestic Box Office Actual: $691,185,348
Still less than $9 Million needed Domestically to take 5th place from Black Panther.
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So as of Sunday, 8/28, which is the last day on record for both the US and International audiences, Maverick needs just shy of $9 Million in the US to take 5th place from Black Panther in the Domestic Box Office, and a total of roughly $24.5 Million to take 11th place from Frozen II in the Worldwide Box Office.
These are the only bumps I expect to happen.
Here at home, Avitar and No Way Home get re-releases next month. Assuming they count the new money as additions to the box office there's zero chance Maverick beats either of them for 3rd and 4th place without a well-timed re-release of its own down the road, and even then it would still have another $69 Million and $105 Million catching up to do.
Internationally, to take 10th place from Furious 7 it would need another $94 Million at which point it should easily take 9th place from The Avengers as well since it would need less than $1 Million more to do so.
Without a re-release, that's a steep hill to climb. I won't call in impossible since it did make roughly another $24 Million in the last 7 days worldwide, but the box office in general has taken a big hit with the end of summer coming and I don't know if it can hold on long enough to make another $100 Million bucks 15 weeks into it's run.
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Maverick pulls back into 3rd place over Beast on Monday, but it's the first time it's under half a million with only $492,616. Looks like it's going to be a rough week for the theaters in general though because it was only $21k shy of Bullet Train at number 2 and $41k shy of The Invitation at number 1.
Those are rough numbers for The Invitation on its 4th day. Top Gun might actually displace all 3 of those movies next weekend and fall behind only Honk for Jesus (if that movie does well) and Spider-Man: No Way Home's re-release.
Sunday will mark Maverick's 100th day in the theater.
Oh... and P.S...
Rogue One got a re-release and nobody went to see it. Free money for Disney I guess, but in 4 days it hasn't even made $1.5 Million.
Nobody cares about any new Star Wars. Not even the decent one. You'd be better off keeping that franchise on the shelf forever after how you treated it.
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