***** Top Gun: Maverick *****
POSTED BY: JEWELSTAITEFAN
UPDATED: Saturday, April 5, 2025 22:46
VIEWED: 7585
PAGE 3 of 10
Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
My guess for next weekend's top 5 at the US Box Office:
1. Nope
2. Vengeance
3. Thor: Love and Thunder
4. DC League of Super Pets
5. Top Gun: Maverick
That's an early guess though, without much to base it on. I haven't actually seen any real reviews for Nope yet, and there really hasn't been much buzz around Vengeance or Super Pets from any source that remains reputable in 2022. The media seems to love Jordan Peele even though he's an overrated hack just like M Knight Shamalyan was. (I do find it humorous when the media keeps calling him the next M Knight as if that were a compliment in current year).
I'm firm on Maverick being 5th place next weekend though, and would not be surprised to see it taking in more than at least two of those other 4 movies two weekends from now. I still think it won't get higher than 5th place after that though given how long its run has been in the theaters. Even though the movies coming out in August don't look like anything special, theaters aren't exactly cheap these days and I think the number of people who wanted to see Maverick on the big screen and still haven't are pretty small and how many times are you going to go see the same movie over and over again?
Well... I guess before I write a top five I should do a little more research.
1. DC's League of Super Pets is going to be the obvious 1st place this weekend, and I had it at 4th. Not only does it have The Rock and Kevin Heart voice acting, but it's being released is a whopping 4,314 locations in the US. If that's not a post-pandemic record for a debut, it's pretty damn close. Also, in current year, if I haven't heard anything about a likely blockbuster movie until a day before it gets released, that probably means that it's pretty decent and Twitter isn't preemptively calling people Istaphobes if they don't go and see it.
That being said, I'm sure Minions is going to take the biggest hit this week because of this release, and expect DC's LoSP to fall quickly off the charts after 45 days since it will be streaming on HBO Max at that time (If it hadn't already).
2. There's no way that Vengeance is taking 2nd place either. I'm not sure why The-Numbers had it listed as a (WIDE) release since it's not even getting 1,000 theaters in its first weekend.
3. Where the Crawdads Sing has surprised me. After falling behind Maverick on Sunday, it's pulled ahead every single day since. I don't think that there are a whole bunch of feminists that are rushing to the theaters to see it though. It's probably doing so well because there is a dearth of serious adult flicks out right now. I'm still going to say that Maverick will pull in more this weekend than Crawdads though, as it's more likely that the adults going to see this one without the kids in tow are doing it during the middle of the week when the prices are cheaper and everything is quieter. Also, Vengeance will probably be in competition with this one, even though it's a dark comedy.
4. Nope is not getting very good scores from the audience, and what would be considered middling reviews for a Peele movie from the critics. Given the new information about DC's movie above, I have to downgrade this from 1st place, and I expect to see it take a pretty big hit in its 2nd weekend.
New Top Five prediction for the weekend:
1. DC League of Super Pets
2. Nope
3. Thor: Love and Thunder
4. Minions: Rise of Gru
5. Top Gun: Maverick
I really don't think that Vengeance can even break the top five. Maverick is still going to be shown in 3,008 theaters this weekend and Vengeance only gets 998.
I'm also playing it safe and giving Minions the 4th spot over Maverick even though League of Super Pets will be its direct competition, but I think it will be very close. It took in double what Maverick did just yesterday, it's going to be in more than 500 mo
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Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
New Top Five prediction for the weekend:
1. DC League of Super Pets
2. Nope
3. Thor: Love and Thunder
4. Minions: Rise of Gru
5. Top Gun: Maverick
Well...
Regardless of what happens now, I'm happy with the fact that my revised top 5 perfectly mirrors the top five list The-Numbers put out nearly 24 hours after my prediction.
You guys looking for new talent?
How about putting somebody on staff that loves talking about movies but doesn't actually watch any of them.
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Friday's take. So far, so good...
1 DC League of Super Pets ... $9,300,000
2 Nope ..................... $5,840,000
3 Thor: Love and Thunder .... $3,751,000
4 Minions: The Rise of Gru .. $3,310,000
5 Top Gun: Maverick ......... $2,400,000
Looks like a 70% drop for Nope from Friday to Friday, making my prediction that it was going to drop like a stone its 2nd week come true.
Feminist's Crawdad flick came close to Maverick though... 5th place will be a tight race this weekend.
6. Where the Crawdads Sing .. $2,335,000
It also looks like Vengeance despite it's sub-1000 theaters is faring better than The-Numbers predicted. They thought it would take 11th place for the weekend, but as of now it's sitting at 8th place in front of Jurassic Turd at 9th, and Paws of Fury which is sitting at 12th.
It's the little movie that could.
9 Vengeance ................... $650,000
Until I hear about some dumb woke bullshit or find out that B.J. Knovak is just another fake Hollywood woke turd like most of the rest of them, I'll root for it.
I think in the case of Paws, The-Numbers neglected to factor in how damaging DC's Super Pets and the Minions movie would be on a weekend where 3 kids movies were trying to hit the top 10 all at once.
In the case of Vengeance, I think it probably ate more into Nope's profits than Crawdad's. The-Numbers had Nope at a -54% drop for the 2nd weekend when so far it's been a -70% drop. (It won't remain that high is my prediction. In the past I've seen other movies that I've been rooting for failure end up with a much nicer weekend drop number post-Friday's numbers. I'll split the difference and predict a 62% drop for Nope for the weekend).
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Interesting note I just discovered about Maverick.
There have only been 5 movies released all year that did better for their opening weekend than Maverick did on its second weekend. 4 of the 5 were the titles that ranked higher opening weekends than Maverick's opening weekend. The 5th one was the Minions movie.
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Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Friday's take. So far, so good...
1 DC League of Super Pets ... $9,300,000
2 Nope ..................... $5,840,000
3 Thor: Love and Thunder .... $3,751,000
4 Minions: The Rise of Gru .. $3,310,000
5 Top Gun: Maverick ......... $2,400,000
Weekend Take:
1 DC League of Super Pets ... $23,003,441
2 Nope ...................... $18,588,875
3 Thor: Love and Thunder .... $13,176,531
4 Minions: The Rise of Gru .. $10,963,545
5 Top Gun: Maverick ......... $8,407,590
Quote:
It also looks like Vengeance despite it's sub-1000 theaters is faring better than The-Numbers predicted. They thought it would take 11th place for the weekend, but as of now it's sitting at 8th place in front of Jurassic Turd at 9th, and Paws of Fury which is sitting at 12th.
It's the little movie that could.
9 Vengeance ................... $650,000
Until I hear about some dumb woke bullshit or find out that B.J. Knovak is just another fake Hollywood woke turd like most of the rest of them, I'll root for it.
Vengeance still ended up losing 9th place to Jurassic Turd, but not by much. Made the Top 10.
Quote:
The-Numbers had Nope at a -54% drop for the 2nd weekend when so far it's been a -70% drop. (It won't remain that high is my prediction. In the past I've seen other movies that I've been rooting for failure end up with a much nicer weekend drop number post-Friday's numbers. I'll split the difference and predict a 62% drop for Nope for the weekend).
Final drop for Nope was 58%.
DC Super Pets only pulled in $23 Million and was expected to reach nearly $40 Million. They can't be too happy with those numbers. That means in its first weekend it took in what it would have hoped the best case scenario for a second weekend drop in their first weekend. Probably will end up being a flop with only $23 Million domestic and $41 Million worldwide on a $90 Million production budget.
I still haven't heard anything negative or positive on this one, so unless I hear otherwise I think this is simply a case of DC/WB being punished for all of their previous woke bullshit, and not anything having to do specifically with this movie.
Time to fire some 30-Somethings and get some real talent back in the DC offices.
Quote:
I'm firm on Maverick being 5th place next weekend though, and would not be surprised to see it taking in more than at least two of those other 4 movies two weekends from now. I still think it won't get higher than 5th place after that though given how long its run has been in the theaters. Even though the movies coming out in August don't look like anything special, theaters aren't exactly cheap these days and I think the number of people who wanted to see Maverick on the big screen and still haven't are pretty small and how many times are you going to go see the same movie over and over again?
And The Numbers now expects Top Gun to be in the Top 10 for at least 20 weeks since the Summer season is over and they don't expect another blockbuster hit until the new Halloween movie comes out in October.
If Minions and Thor have the same week to week drop that they've been having along with the same for Maverick, they will both fall below Maverick on the list next weekend. I'm giving a 99% chance of that to Minions and a 70% chance of that for Thor. It would be another week or two or three after that before Nope and Pets falls below Maverick though.
I'm wondering if we might even see it have another weekend higher than 5th place if the new movies before Halloween can't make bank and the existing top four fall too fast for them to make up for it.
Anybody see anything in the release schedule they think will do well between now and October 14th?
https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/release-schedule
The only real standout is what looks to be a re-release of Spiderman: No Way Home with different scenes in it called (The More
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I'm veering off of The-Number's predictions this week... Slightly.
My predictions for top 10.
1. Bullet Train
2. DC League of Super Pets
3. Nope
4. Thor: Love and Thunder
5. Easter Sunday
6. Minions: Rise of Gru
7. Top Gun: Maverick
8. Where the Crawdads Sing
9. Elvis
10. The Black Phone
Nothing is going to come close to Bullet Train this weekend, no matter if it's any good or not. A bit of trivia... It's the widest release of any movie Brad Pitt did in his entire career, which is pretty impressive post-plandemic.
I disagree with the-numbers on Nope taking 2nd place over Super Pets. Nope is being shown in 1,300 less theaters than Super Pets will be, which should easily overcome the hit it will take from Minions still doing as well as it is. Minions is also being shown in 170 more theaters than Nope is this weekend. Out of all of the movies in the top 10 this weekend, Nope would be the one most negatively impacted by Bullet Train as well as the other wide release Easter Sunday, demographically speaking.
I'm going to play it safe and put Thor and Minions above Maverick for one more weekend. I might regret that decision, but they both seem to be just a little too much above Maverick this week for them to fall behind just yet (while it is very possible that Maverick is only behind them during the weekdays now because parents taking their kids to matinees during the week are taking them to the two kid's movies... It's hard to say because they're all so close). While they'll both lose more viewers because of Super Pets this weekend, Maverick is also likely to lose some to Bullet Train. Interestingly enough though, on Thursday the Minions movie actually pulled in more than Thor did for the first time. I think Thor is going to drop like a stone like Dr. Strange 2 did going forward.
Easter Sunday is going to be pretty niche and will probably be forgotten about by September. But considering it is the first weekend and it has 400 more theaters than Maverick, I expect it to make a good deal more for at least its opening weekend.
This will be Maverick's lowest showing so far, but I expect it to outlast most of the movies on that list and gradually take the spots back from them, probably never rising above 5th place again, but only competing with new movies for at least the next month or two, which really don't seem all that impressive after Bullet Train and before the new Halloween movie in mid-October.
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I have seen 1 Sold Out showing of Minions. This is a cinema which practically shares a parking lot with IHOP - where kids eat free during Minions promotion.
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Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
I have seen 1 Sold Out showing of Minions. This is a cinema which practically shares a parking lot with IHOP - where kids eat free during Minions promotion.
Wow. That's a huge deal in 2022 economy. Especially for a kids movie that I didn't hear any woke crap about.
How often do restaurants even do free meals for kids anymore? I thought that was a relic of the past. That would be a fun day with the kids without breaking the bank.
Early results for last night are starting to trickle in. Looks like they're putting Thor at 4th place right now and Maverick at 5th place. I don't exactly know what that means when they don't have anything else except for Paws of Fury, Lightyear and Dr. Strange with a combined total last night of $73,000. I think it's time to retire all three of them.
If Maverick actually did get 5th place last night with $1,900,000, that's not indicative of a very good weekend for the theaters. I wonder what fell below it then? Thor has 4th with $2,200,000. No way that Bullet Train didn't run away with 1st place.
Could Nope have fallen to 6th place already? Was Easter Sunday a total flop? Did Super Pets have a disastrous 2nd Friday?
Edited to Add: Nope. It wasn't Nope. Nope's got 2nd place now with $2,520,000.
So what's got 2nd and 3rd, and what fell below 5th last night?
Whatever the results, it probably won't really matter too much in the long run. Friday night box office doesn't seem to predict how the weekend goes at all, which makes sense because the kids are largely out of the equation until Saturday.
It was probably DC's Super Pets and Minions that fell below 5th place for Friday night, which would mean that Easter Sunday took 3rd last night.
We'll see.
Edited to Add 2: I see what happened. Their columns aren't very well denoted. The (5) next to the movies on this list were the place they had last weekend. It must have just been confusing to look at since it was a very partial list I was looking at. Maverick didn't get 5th last night. It will get 7th place once Bullet Train and Super Pets are added to the list, as it is currently sitting at 5th place without them.
It looks like Easter Sunday just barely eeked out the win over Maverick last night but was also extremely close to coming in ahead of Minions.
That's got to be a really hard job for places like The-Numbers to do these sorts of predictions when you've got spreads like this. Without figures for Bullet Train and Super Pets, I'm looking at 5 movies that pulled in about $10.5 Million total but only have $600k difference between first place and last place.
Edited to Add 3: Bullet Train comes in with $12.62 Million. Easy first.
All that's left is to see where Super Pets landed. I'm really going to have a hard time believing The-Numbers that it loses the weekend to Nope. It pulled in $2.24 Million on Thursday night, which would have been enough to beat Thor on Friday night, and is only $280,000 less than Nope made last night. Nope barely cracked $1.5 Million Thursday night as well. Because of the kid factor, I think that even if Super Pets somehow loses to Nope Friday there's still no chance of Nope taking 2nd place for the weekend.
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Yup. Super Pets gets easy 2nd place with $3.35 Million over Nope's $2.52 Million.
Like I said before, Friday night is not indicative of how the entire weekend will go, but here's where we are for Friday.
1. Bullet Train $12,620,000
2. DC League of Super Pets $3,350,000
3. Nope $2,520,000
4. Thor: Love and Thunder $2,200,000
5. Minions: Rise of Gru $2,090,000
6. Easter Sunday $2,030,000
7. Top Gun: Maverick $1,900,000
8. Where the Crawdads Sing $1,665,000
9. Elvis $1,150,000
10. The Black Phone $440,000
So far, I'm right about Nope losing to Super Pets, and because of how kids movies do on weekends compared to weekdays and going into the weekend with a $830k buffer, I'm pretty confident I'll win that one.
I was wrong about Easter Sunday so far though. I had it at 5th place over Minions, but it lost to Minions by $60k on Friday. $60k isn't much, but unless this is a family movie that parents are going to want to take their kids to see (I know nothing about this movie at all except the movie poster and that it's been called a "family movie"), it probably won't take Minions spot. It's still a lot more likely than Nope coming in 2nd for the weekend though, so maybe my prediction will hold after Sunday's numbers come in. And even though it's a family movie, I still believe that this movie is also taking ticket sales away from Nope, even if just in a small amount.
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It appears it was an interesting Saturday.
1 Bullet Train $9,600,000
2 DC League of Super Pets $4,440,000
3 Nope $3,400,000
4 Thor: Love and Thunder $3,114,000
5 Top Gun: Maverick $2,865,000
6 Minions: The Rise of Gru $2,790,000
7 Where the Crawdads Sing $2,205,000
8 Easter Sunday $1,800,000
9 Elvis $1,550,000
10 The Black Phone $600,000
1. At this point there's no way The-Numbers was right about Nope taking 2nd place, and I was right that Super Pets would beat it.
2. Not only did Easter Sunday fall to 8th place on Saturday, below Crawdads by quite a bit, but Top Gun: Maverick just leapfrogged both ES and Minions to take 5th place back for the day. It looks like Easter Sunday is already out for the count just halfway into its first weekend.
Perhaps my prediction early last week that Maverick would beat Minions this weekend was correct after all?
Totals for both Friday and Saturday this weekend:
1. Bullet Train $22,220,000
2. DC League of Super Pets $7,790,000
3. Nope $5,920,000
4. Thor: Love and Thunder $5,314,000
5. Minions: Rise of Gru $4,880,000
6. Top Gun: Maverick $4,765,000
7. Where the Crawdads Sing $3,870,000
8. Easter Sunday $3,830,000
9. Elvis $2,700,000
10. The Black Phone $1,040,000
1. If Maverick has a Sunday just slightly better than yesterday in relation to Minions, it will take 5th place again this weekend. Even if it doesn't, it will beat Minions next week for sure.
2. Unless people are waiting for Not Easter Sunday to go see Easter Sunday, I got this one really wrong when thinking it would get 4th place and The Numbers fared a little better having it at 6th place. Calling this one a first week loser against Maverick, giving Maverick another chance to stay in the top five even next weekend with Minions and Thor coming dangerously close to slipping behind, and Nope not that far behind them.
I'm thinking when I make my final predictions in the future I shouldn't taint my own gut judgement with The Numbers statistical evaluations. They're good at what they do with data, for sure, but I think if I continue doing this in the future I will put my final prediction up before I look at what theirs is on Friday. It's not exactly an outsider's prediction if I'm also factoring in their statistical judgement. I will look at things like the theater count and news articles for the buzz though.
Here's what my predictions look like with one day left to go.
GOOD 1. Bullet Train
GOOD 2. DC League of Super Pets
GOOD 3. Nope
GOOD 4. Thor: Love and Thunder
BAD. 5. Easter Sunday
BAD. 6. Minions: Rise of Gru
BAD. 7. Top Gun: Maverick
BAD. 8. Where the Crawdads Sing
GOOD 9. Elvis
GOOD 10. The Black Phone
Here's what The Number's Predictions look like with one day left to go.
GOOD 1. Bullet Train
BAD. 2. Nope
BAD. 3. DC League of Super Pets
GOOD 4. Thor: Love and Thunder
BAD. 5. Minions: Rise of Gru
BAD. 6. Easter Sunday
BAD. 7. Top Gun: Maverick
BAD. 8. Where the Crawdads Sing
GOOD 9. Elvis
GOOD 10. The Black Phone
If you put aside how wrong their predictions were for Nope and Super Pets, we got the same 4 movies wrong in the same 4 spots. Like I mentioned earlier though, it was really hard to place them because there is such a small amount of money between quite a few of the movies this week. But Easter Sunday ended up being a bad surprise.
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