Dow Nearing 30K. Time For You To Jump Off?
POSTED BY: JEWELSTAITEFAN
UPDATED: Saturday, September 28, 2024 08:52
VIEWED: 9969
PAGE 10 of 12
Quote:No. I find it interesting.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Heh...
I can't blame you. I'm sure it's quite depressing.
But I'm just too busy with many things. Several threads I have not kept up with.
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Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:No. I find it interesting.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Heh...
I can't blame you. I'm sure it's quite depressing.
But I'm just too busy with many things. Several threads I have not kept up with.
That's cool.
I'm not invested at all. I was surprised to see that the DOW was still over 32k after I wrote that post considering all the doom and gloom I've been hearing about everything.
I've got some meme stock just for yucks, but nothing I ever look at on even a yearly basis.
--------------------------------------------------
Me: "Remember Covid?"
Useless Idiots: "What's Covid, durr? Russia, Ukraine, Putin, NATO *drool*. DURRRR!!!!"
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Looks like Dow peaked around 37k in early January. Like 36,952.
Friday it closed at 29,888. Close on Thursday was 29,927.
A 15% drop would have been about 31,400. Looks like it finally got down to that around mid-May. I wasn't paying attention.
Before Obamanomics broke the Stock Market model, that would have been the trigger for the onset of Bear Market. A bounce in prices would have briefly followed, before the deep dive.
Looks like it only bounced back up to about 33,600 in the past few weeks. The expected bounce using the old model would have been from 33,300 to 35,200 - so this current behavior seems to mimic the pre-Obamination model. If it continues, expect Dow to continue to fall, at this point.
The time to sell the profitable funds would have been from 3 weeks to 1 week ago.
That last post of mine would have been a good time for me to look, but my mom was dying then. Been busy.
So, Dow is currently at about 19% loss compared to it's All-Time Record High in January. The coasting along off the steam generated by Trump has ended.
Bad news for Democrap Libtards in November, which is obviously great news for America when that Cancer gets reduced.
Selling during that bounce would have been a loss of about 9% from the All-Time Record High, but the 3,700 drop since then is another 10% of loss.
Because the Bear Market is now, it is still best to sell before it drops too much more. The expected drop would be another 10% to 50%, or 30% to 70% off the Record High. Then buy back in at the lower price. Buy low, sell high.
True to form, I just saw on Fake News that self-proclaimed "Financial experts" are chanting "don't sell, don't sell" just like they did for the entire year of 2008 as the Rock-The-Vote Recession kept dropping.
Oh, and they are chanting "YOU CANT TIME THE MARKET, YOU CANT TIME THE MARKET"
hahahahahahaha....
I must have mentioned in this thread or the prior one about this timing, about 18 months after Libtards overran Washington, just like Jan 2007 and thru 2008, is now like Jan 2021 thru 2022.
Looks like in 1st week of March the drop was only 12%. Not enough to get excited about, but had I looked, would have been warning to keep watch - for the 15%.
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OK, so does anybody want to guess how far the Dow will drop in this Bear Market?
Surely 30%(~25,900), but likely not 70% (~11,000).
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Quote:ha
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Selling during that bounce would have been a loss of about 9% from the All-Time Record High, but the 3,700 drop since then is another 10% of loss.
Because the Bear Market is now, it is still best to sell before it drops too much more. The expected drop would be another 10% to 50%, or 30% to 70% off the Record High. Then buy back in at the lower price. Buy low, sell high.
True to form, I just saw on Fake News that self-proclaimed "Financial experts" are chanting "don't sell, don't sell" just like they did for the entire year of 2008 as the Rock-The-Vote Recession kept dropping.
Oh, and they are chanting "YOU CANT TIME THE MARKET, YOU CANT TIME THE MARKET"
hahahahahahaha.....
I just checked my fund balances on my accounts. EXTREMELY HIGH CALL VOLUMES. LONG WAIT TIMES. Never had these problems before Lord Darth Obiden.
Even better, to ensure everything runs smoothly, Darth's Deep State Stooges have disabled the Account Access system which has been in place for over 22 years, for Federal Employees. Starting 1 June, 2022 they have a "new account system" - which doesn't work yet.
I had forgotten to mention: S&P500 is at 3,674. Had peaked at 4,818. Drop of 1,144. About 27% loss.
NASDAQ at 10,798. Had peaked at 16,212. Loss of 5,414. About 34% drop.
In case folk aren't conjuring, just watch me Time The Market, yet again, like I've done repeatedly before - just not as well this time. Mom's death was a distraction.
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Recently heard about some China Stimulus Package which bumped some stocks up briefly, but now some say the recession will resume, as it was before being interrupted. N ot sure if that was all true, but posting it for future reference.
Anyhow, some further data points I was able to collect:
Dow.
36,799 All-Time Record High Close on 4 Jan 2022.
90% = 33,119. 85% = 31,279. 80% = 29,439.
34,160 27 Jan 92.8%
32,632 8 Mar low 88.7
35,294 29 Mar peak 95.9
35,160 20 Apr 95.5
31,253 19 May 84.9%
33,212 27 May 90.3
33,248 2 Jun 90.4%
33,180 7 Jun 90.2
29.888 17 Jun 81.2
30,483 22 Jun 82.8
31,500 24 Jun 85.6
30,630 14 Jul 83.2
31,288 15 Jul 85.0
S&P 500:
4,796 3 Jan 2022. All-Time Record High Close.
So 90% = 4,316. 85% = 4,076. 80% = 3,836.
4,326 27 Jan 90.2%
4,589 2 Feb 95.7
4,587 9 Feb 95.6
4,225 23 Feb 88.1
4,170 8 Mar 86.9
4,173 14 Mar 87.0
4,631 29 Mar 96.6
3,930 12 May 81.9%
3,900 19 May 81.3
4,158 27 May 86.7
4,176 2 Jun 87.1%
4,160 7 Jun 86.7
3,666 16 Jun 76.4
3,911 24 Jun 81.5
3,902 7 Jul 81.4
3,863 15 Jul 80.5
Dow and S&P made their All-Time Record Highs in early Jnuary. After that, the first time they closed below 85% was 12 May for S&P and 19 May for Dow. Under the model prior to Obamanomics, that would have been the trigger for starting the Bear Market cycle., Next would come a bounce of 5-10%, or hopefully 90-95% of the Record High.
Dow did get up to 90.4% to provide a decent selling price, at almost 10% discount of the peak historical profit. But S&P only bounced up to 87.1%, meaning a sell would be a 13% discount - or more than 1/8 loss.
That selling period was from 27 May to 7 June for both S&P 500 and Dow.
Since the low point on 16/17 June, that minor bounce may be due to that much ballyhooed "China Stimulus" or that might just be Fake News covering for Lord Darth Obiden. Regardless, I expect the Market to drop a while.
Just in time for Elections, and folk can be reminded of their wisdom in "electing" Libtards - or, allowing them to Steal the Election.
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Posted 27 Nov 2020:
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:This makes me sad.
Originally posted by Jongsstraw:
i sold a bunch of stocks back in March. The Dow had just gone from 30,000 to 18,000 in less than two weeks. Days later I was feeling pretty good about the decision I made to take a reasonable loss and stop what could have been a catastrophic loss. But as the Markets have since FULLY rebounded in only eight months I find myself realizing I panicked and did the wrong thing in March by selling. Oh well, sometimes you guess wrong. And to top it off with a cherry on top, CD rates have recently crashed, so there's almost no place left that's safe to earn any sort of substantial interest. May 2021 will mark 10 years since I retired. It's truly been wonderful not working, just enjoying living, although this year of the pandemic has kinda sucked.
On 17 March my state went into Lockdown, and I was unable to post here.
If I had been able to post here, I wanted to post a reminder of the obvious Gift Horse Buying Opportunity with the Dow drop. Although I was unable to do so, I hoped that the numerous times previously that I had posted the same thing for those who had read the other thread.
Now I am proven wrong, and my posting the same thing repeatedly in the past did not sink in.
Can you tell us why you wanted to sell at the lowest price? Your input could help others understand in the future.
It sounds like you liquidated your stocks, not just switching to a different stock. Did you keep the money within the Tax-Deferred/protected environment, or pay the penalties?
Actually, I did. I'd already posted about the situation:
http://fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=18&tid=61333&mid=10961
82#1096182
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Reference posts from the prior thread:
http://fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=18&tid=61333&mid=10674
37#1067437
http://fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=18&tid=61333&mid=10668
46#1066846
http://fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=18&tid=61333&mid=10669
49#1066949
http://fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=18&tid=61333&mid=10637
97#1063797
http://fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=18&tid=61333&mid=10640
29#1064029
http://fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=18&tid=61333&mid=10624
10#1062410
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I'm so glad none of this matters to me anymore.
--------------------------------------------------
Falsus in unum, falsus in omnibus
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Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Recently heard about some China Stimulus Package which bumped some stocks up briefly, but now some say the recession will resume, as it was before being interrupted. N ot sure if that was all true, but posting it for future reference.
Anyhow, some further data points I was able to collect:
Dow.
36,799 All-Time Record High Close on 4 Jan 2022.
90% = 33,119. 85% = 31,279. 80% = 29,439.
34,160 27 Jan 92.8%
32,632 8 Mar low 88.7
35,294 29 Mar peak 95.9
35,160 20 Apr 95.5
31,253 19 May 84.9%
33,212 27 May 90.3
33,248 2 Jun 90.4%
33,180 7 Jun 90.2
29.888 17 Jun 81.2
30,483 22 Jun 82.8
31,500 24 Jun 85.6
30,630 14 Jul 83.2
31,288 15 Jul 85.0
S&P 500:
4,796 3 Jan 2022. All-Time Record High Close.
So 90% = 4,316. 85% = 4,076. 80% = 3,836.
4,326 27 Jan 90.2%
4,589 2 Feb 95.7
4,587 9 Feb 95.6
4,225 23 Feb 88.1
4,170 8 Mar 86.9
4,173 14 Mar 87.0
4,631 29 Mar 96.6
3,930 12 May 81.9%
3,900 19 May 81.3
4,158 27 May 86.7
4,176 2 Jun 87.1%
4,160 7 Jun 86.7
3,666 16 Jun 76.4
3,911 24 Jun 81.5
3,902 7 Jul 81.4
3,863 15 Jul 80.5
Dow and S&P made their All-Time Record Highs in early Jnuary. After that, the first time they closed below 85% was 12 May for S&P and 19 May for Dow. Under the model prior to Obamanomics, that would have been the trigger for starting the Bear Market cycle., Next would come a bounce of 5-10%, or hopefully 90-95% of the Record High.
Dow did get up to 90.4% to provide a decent selling price, at almost 10% discount of the peak historical profit. But S&P only bounced up to 87.1%, meaning a sell would be a 13% discount - or more than 1/8 loss.
That selling period was from 27 May to 7 June for both S&P 500 and Dow.
Since the low point on 16/17 June, that minor bounce may be due to that much ballyhooed "China Stimulus" or that might just be Fake News covering for Lord Darth Obiden. Regardless, I expect the Market to drop a while.
Just in time for Elections, and folk can be reminded of their wisdom in "electing" Libtards - or, allowing them to Steal the Election.
Dow closed today at 31,072.
S&P 500 at 3,830.
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