The Polling Aggregates 101

POSTED BY: 6IXSTRINGJACK
UPDATED: Friday, November 6, 2020 20:14
VIEWED: 12307
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6IXSTRINGJACK

Saturday, August 1, 2020 9:15 AM

This information can be used to decipher any polling aggregate and to figure out how to follow trending information, but this was written specifically about the President Trump Job Approval on the RCP Aggregate in the Ruh Roh thread. I hope you find this informative, and please feel free to ask any questions or request that I further elaborate on anything. And by all means, if you believe that I have posted something in error please point that out as well.

PRESIDENT TRUMP JOB APPROVAL, THE RCP AGGREGATE 101

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_app
roval-6179.html

I. HOW IT ALL WORKS:
A step-by-step breakdown of the important information on the entire page.

I.A.: The "Polling Data" table on top of the graph.

The first line highlighted in yellow is the RCP aggregate, or the average of all of the polls that were used in the table in real time (you might notice this page regularly refreshes on its own).

These numbers are what are plotted on the "RCP POLL AVERAGE: President Trump Job Approval" graph underneath the main table. (We'll get to that in detail shortly).

I.A.(x): The breakdown and definition of columns in the Polling Data table.

I.A.1 - POLL: The name of the Polling Firm.

I.A.2 - DATE: The date range of the specified poll in that line.

I.A.3 - SAMPLE: The amount of people who were in the poll. RV = Registered Voters. LV = Likely Voters.

I.A.4 - APPROVE: The percentage of respondents counted in the Sample column who expressed their approval for Trump. (Likely those who "Agreed Strongly" and "Somewhat Agree" when given 5 choices after the statement "I approve of the job that President Trump has done so far")

I.A.5 - DISAPPROVE: The percentage of respondents counted in the Sample column who expressed their disapproval of Trump. (Likely those who "Disagree Strongly" or "Somewhat Disagree" when given 5 choices after the statement "I approve of the job that President Trump has done so far")

SIDE NOTE: You'll notice it's extremely rare for the Approve and Disapprove numbers to reach 100. The missing percentages are people who would have selected "Don't Know" or "Have No Opinion" when posed with the statement "I approve of the job that President Trump has done so far".

I.A.6 - SPREAD: This is simply the difference between the Approve and Disapprove column in terms of the lines for each poll.

SIDE NOTE:In the case of the "RCP Average" line, APPROVE is the average of all approve numbers in the current aggregate table. DISAPPROVE is the average of all the disapprove numbers in the current aggregate table. SPREAD is the average spread of all of the polls currently included in the aggregate.

I.B.: The RCP Poll Average graph

This is a graph of the daily average APPROVE, DISAPPROVE, and SPREAD of any polls that were included on that day in the RCP aggregate. The polls included need to have a DATE column range that falls within the DATE column range of the first yellow "RCP Average" line of the table to be included.

You can hover your mouse over any point in time on that graph and it will display the exact numbers for the exact day that you hover over. The buttons at the bottom of the graph allow you to choose 7 Days, 14 Days, 30 Days, 6 Months, 1 Yea

THG

Saturday, August 1, 2020 7:34 PM

Since this thread came about due to another you fucked up badly, I am going to repost my response to you in that thread here as well. I feel it necessary to do so because my post thanks you profusely for creating a thread, which so thoroughly shows Biden destroying Trump in the polls. When I think of another way you can assist the never Trumpers, I'll let you know.

Bravo…

It shouldn't go unnoticed that Jack is now referencing as true, all the polls he has been claiming to be fake news for months. What a fucking dummy. Enjoy the repost below.

Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Please keep any trolling in here, Ted, but I did make a lesson plan for you to learn how to use Polling Aggregates and read the tables.

http://fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=18&tid=63767&mid=11066
78#1106678

If you have any legitimate questions though, please feel free to ask them in the lesson thread.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

You went back and edited your posts. Glad I was able to help. I didn't mean to upset you so. I see you were so pissed off you started a new thread. This time posting what you wanted to post here originally, and then everything else you could find. It's as though you couldn't stop yourself.

I suppose you did that because you fucked this one up so badly. Again, so sorry to have upset you so. After a brief glance at your new thread, it appears you've gotten it right. Good for you dummy.

It does seem though, that you've spent hours doing so. It looks as though a mad man spent all night creating the new thread and cleaning this one up. Holy shit you must've been pissed.

It is a beautiful thread though Jack. And it really shows from all the different angels just how badly Biden is beating Trump. You've done this days' work for me. I couldn't have done better myself, and be prouder of you Jack. Thanks dummy.

Hey everybody, please check out Jacks new thread. It shows just how badly Biden is beating Trump. This shits just too funny Jack. You're killing me.

T

Stupid people don't know they're stupid, and they certainly don't realize how obvious it is to others.

THG

Saturday, August 1, 2020 8:14 PM

T

Stupid people don't know they're stupid, and they certainly don't realize how obvious it is to others.

Trump attempts to sow doubt over Election Day

REAVERFAN

Saturday, August 1, 2020 9:32 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by THG:
Since this thread came about due to another you fucked up badly, I am going to repost my response to you in that thread here as well. I feel it necessary to do so because my post thanks you profusely for creating a thread, which so thoroughly shows Biden destroying Trump in the polls. When I think of another way you can assist the never Trumpers, I'll let you know.

Bravo…

It shouldn't go unnoticed that Jack is now referencing as true, all the polls he has been claiming to be fake news for months. What a fucking dummy. Enjoy the repost below.

Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Please keep any trolling in here, Ted, but I did make a lesson plan for you to learn how to use Polling Aggregates and read the tables.

http://fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=18&tid=63767&mid=11066
78#1106678

If you have any legitimate questions though, please feel free to ask them in the lesson thread.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

You went back and edited your posts. Glad I was able to help. I didn't mean to upset you so. I see you were so pissed off you started a new thread. This time posting what you wanted to post here originally, and then everything else you could find. It's as though you couldn't stop yourself.

I suppose you did that because you fucked this one up so badly. Again, so sorry to have upset you so. After a brief glance at your new thread, it appears you've gotten it right. Good for you dummy.

It does seem though, that you've spent hours doing so. It looks as though a mad man spent all night creating the new thread and cleaning this one up. Holy shit you must've been pissed.

It is a beautiful thread though Jack. And it really shows from all the different angels just how badly Biden is beating Trump. You've done this days' work for me. I couldn't have done better myself, and be prouder of you Jack. Thanks dummy.

Hey everybody, please check out Jacks new thread. It shows just how badly Biden is beating Trump. This shits just too funny Jack. You're killing me.

T

Stupid people don't know they're stupid, and they certainly don't realize how obvious it is to others.

6IXSTRINGJACK

Saturday, August 1, 2020 10:31 PM

See Reply Here:

http://fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=18&tid=63763&p=1#11067
23

This is a thread for intelligent discussion, which it seems that you are incapable of, Ted. Unless you actually want to learn something, I'll request that you keep the trolling in the other thread.

THG

Sunday, August 2, 2020 12:23 AM

Ok, since Jack is still posting to me from both threads, I'll again post here my response in the other thread. Enjoy the post below.

Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

Yes. I edited the post. I was completely transparent about that fact and I noted what the edits were. I'll post them again here, because I'm not hiding anything.

I made three edits to the original thread. All of them were remarked in the original post. Only one of them had any bearing on the outcome of the numbers due to a mistake on my part, and it was small.

1. Added the Emerson poll which was added to the RCP Aggregate after I made the original post. (And raised Trumps aggreage approval from 43.2% to 43.4%.)

2. Changed the names of the polling firms to the expanded names that RCP was using last night when I took screenshots. They change these from time to time and I have no idea why. I commented both in this lesson and in the original post that I did so. All numbers and dates matched and it did not change the outcome.

3. I had originally added 2 points to Trump's approval rather than subtract two points from The Hill poll. This had a very small net effect on his overall IMPROVEMENT of his polling average, which was still a sizable improvement either way.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

Wow, again a long rambling post. I’ll keep the opening part because it details some of the mistakes you are willing to admit to. It also validates my post pointing out your mistakes. After you fixed them in the other thread, I only explained that your posts, plural, had been edited. I didn't say anything regarding the content of the edits. Only that I was glad I could help. To be honest I never read them. At a glance I noticed changes. All the other shit you speak of is going on in your head.

That said, it’s hard to go forward in opposition against posts that have been drastically altered. Riddle me this dummy. How can you claim I was wrong after you went ahead and admittedly fixed it all? Even created a new thread because the old one was so fucked up?

Now, I once again wish to thank you for creating a polling thread that will constantly remind you, and the rest of us, Trump doesn’t stand a chance. Then explain to you. If you think posting all those polls showing Trump being destroyed in any way enhances your viewpoint, that he is doing better when he may have went from -17 to – 15 is laughable. What a number like that shows he is getting killed.

And as I’ve stated in the other thread. The economy just tanked in a big way. His forced reopening turned into a nightmare for the country. In the areas where most of his support comes from. Yes, even for his most ardent supporters. This month is going to be bad. Many are going to be thrown to the streets because of the Republicans if they don’t do something quick. I’m looking forward to seeing the polling that follows. I’ll speak for all the never Trumpers and say, please Jack please, keep posting these polls.

Remember, temper temper boy. It only drives your low two digit IQ into the single digits. Why is this important to you? Because you’ve created a polls thread. Posting negative polls regarding Trump puts you into the never Trumpers camp; welcome.

T

Stupid people don't know they're stupid, and they certainly don't realize how obvious it is to others.

THG

Sunday, August 2, 2020 1:18 AM

'Nobody likes me,' Trump complains, as even his allies fade

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/nobody-likes-me-trump-complain
s-as-even-his-allies-fade/ar-BB17rVTf?ocid=msedgntp

6IXSTRINGJACK

Sunday, August 2, 2020 4:28 AM

We'll revisit this thread in November when Trump wins again.

Maybe you'll decide it's time you learn how things actually work when that happens.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

THG

Sunday, August 2, 2020 6:12 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

We'll revisit this thread in November when Trump wins again.

Maybe you'll decide it's time you learn how things actually work when that happens.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

Me, I’m the one who’s going to realize how things work come November. You’re the one who just got hit in the face with reality dummy. For a brief moment you entered the real world. You entered my world. The world of documented facts. And Jack, you got smashed.

Dealing in the world of facts is different than trolling Jack. Dealing in facts is different than ignorant street coroner wrongheaded bullshit. Dealing in facts means, you can’t retreat to the world of bullshit, then claim you’re dealing in facts because the facts will always show how you are not.

I guess looking at the polls was too much for you? Visiting the world of facts and seeing the reality of Trump getting crushed was too much. So, you tell us you’ll revisit your polling threads in 3 months. This isn’t just a reality check for you Jack. This is a character check. And again, you fail. You show yourself to be of very weak character.

For you, It’s back to calling all future polls fake news, aye dummy. It’s back to calling the mainstream media around the world fake, because you can not produce documented facts to prove them wrong. You’re a very sad individual. I’ll go back to ignoring most of what you post. Run little girl, run.

T

Stupid people don't know they're stupid, and they certainly don't realize how obvious it is to others.

6IXSTRINGJACK

Sunday, August 2, 2020 9:14 AM

Wow. Do you think it was me who learned something yesterday while taking the time to write that up last night?

Do you think I haven't been paying attention to polls or know how they work?

None of your arguments you made yesterday were valid, and I proved them all wrong here. And you still haven't displayed that you have an ounce of understanding of how polling aggregates and trending works.

All you have left is "Biden is up in the polls"???

No shit. So was Hillary. And by more than Biden. Trump's approval has always been outweighed by his disapproval except for one single day in January of 2017.

What is your point there? This is nothing new.

So your lessons for today are on Trending and Historical Data.

1. Trending:

Trump rises yet again in the polling Aggregate on August 1st, 2020, from 43.4% to 43.6%. Yesterday morning when I started the other thread it was 43.2%.

Contrary to everything that you have said so far, Trump's numbers are not going down. Unless we're talking his DISAPPROVAL and the SPREAD, but as the lesson plan established, a lowering of the SPREAD for Trump is a good thing.

And at the end of the day the SPREAD is the most meaningless of all three of the numbers anyhow. People who already hate Trump are not going to vote for Trump no matter what happens.

What you need to start worrying about is the Enthusiasm Gap. Trump isn't worried about that one. But you should be.

2. Historiacal Data:

Obama's Approval on August 1st of 2012 was only 47.4%.

Since we can't be sure you know how to Math, I'll just let you know right now that's a whopping 3.8% higher than Trump is right now, and Trump was just 0.1% shy of that on March 27th before all of this 2020 garbage started.

And the Legacy Media spent 8 full years blowing Obama every single day. And nobody was worried that they were going to be called a Nazi or a racist or have people attack them or doxx them or try to get them fired for saying they supported Obama either.

As for me? I beat Nate Silver in 2016. And I was so drunk I had to buy a new keyboard because I kept mistaking my keyboard for an ashtray at the time.

I ain't drunk now. And you're no Nate Silver.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

THG

Sunday, August 2, 2020 7:55 PM

You don’t understand polls Jack. You haven’t connected when the poll was taken with what event or events may have caused any uptick. Also, what may have occurred that will bring them down.

The May jobs report helped Trump. It kept him from going over the edge. But it remains true that in May he had an approval rating of 49% and as of now he is at 43%. For the third time in as may posts. What happened the day before you decided to post the polls wiped out, and then some, any gains Trump may have had. The economy tanked and contracted by a third. Knowing this, and understanding what it means, I am aware he no longer holds that 43% rating.

Look at your post. As of Aug 1st, Trumps disapproval rating shows an average of a +10 jump. As of, May 22, 2020. Trump’s approval rating was at a 49%. Look at the poll you just posted again today. He went from 49% to 43% since May.

Again, if you connect the poll to when it was taken and what events had and have occurred since, you gain insights into what’s actually happening. The day you posted the poll, Trumps approval ratings were already tanking again because of what just happened to economy two days before. This is how pollsters understand how to interpret polls. You see the poll as Trumps numbers going up because you lack insight. I see the events of the day as causing Trumps approval to subtract again. When what happened to our economy has had time to permeate amongst the voters, the polls will reflect I'm right. Trumps not at 43%.

tick tock

T

Stupid people don't know they're stupid, and they certainly don't realize how obvious it is to others.

SECOND

Sunday, August 2, 2020 9:03 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by THG:

tick tock

What about the money? The U.S. has thrown more than $6 trillion at the coronavirus crisis. That number could grow. Between Congress and the Federal Reserve, the government has committed record levels to try to stop an economic calamity — with just limited success.
www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/04/15/coronavirus-economy-6-trill
ion/

$6 trillion can buy a President a lot of love on election day. Trump has that money. Obama did NOT, yet he still got reelected. If Trump doesn't get reelected, it means that the next round of free money, an additional $3 trillion added to the previous $6 trillion, wasn't enough. To put those numbers into context, the National debt held by the public at the end of March 2020 was $17.7 trillion. Such debt is issued in a range of maturities from 1-month bills to 30-year bonds.
www.pgpf.org/blog/2020/06/how-much-is-the-national-debt-what-are-the-d
ifferent-measures-used

House Democrats passed a $3 trillion bill in May that would have extended the benefits for those without work at the current level of $600 per week, in addition to their weekly unemployment insurance check. Great Job, Democrats! Help Trump be reelected! However, Republicans have balked at the price tag. I sure hope the GOP kills the Democrats' very generous bill to reelect Trump.
www.cbsnews.com/news/white-house-democrats-closer-deal-covid-19-relief
-bill/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

6IXSTRINGJACK

Sunday, August 2, 2020 9:45 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by THG:
You don’t understand polls Jack.

I don't understand polls, huh?

And then you follow up that sentence by displaying a staggering lack of understanding on your own part?

Quote:
You haven’t connected when the poll was taken with what event or events may have caused any uptick. Also, what may have occurred that will bring them down.

The May jobs report helped Trump. It kept him from going over the edge.

Going over the edge? The middle of May was just short of all-time-high polling for Trump. And since then, despite the shit show that is 2020, you guys couldn't even get him down to below 41% in the polls. Which, incidentally, he's already rebounded 2.4% since his low last month.

Quote:
But it remains true that in May he had an approval rating of 49%

No he didn't. Trump's peak in may was only 46.3%, his valley was 43.6% (Which is what it stands at today, coincidentally).

In fact, Trump has never once had an aggregate of 49% in nearly 4 years.

Quote:
and as of now he is at 43%. For the third time in as may posts. What happened the day before you decided to post the polls wiped out, and then some, any gains Trump may have had. The economy tanked and contracted by a third. Knowing this, and understanding what it means, I am aware he no longer holds that 43% rating.

You're aware of that, huh?

So, genius... How low do you suspect it's going to go now?

Quote:
Look at your post. As of Aug 1st, Trumps disapproval rating shows an average of a +10 jump.

Are you talking about the SPREAD again?

If you are, you still don't know what the SPREAD means. If you aren't, I have no idea what you're looking at when you say "+10 jump."

The closest thing I can see to a "+10 jump" in disapproval is if you count his most recent lowest Disapproval rating of 49.5% on March 29th and compare it to his most recent highest Disapproval rating of 56.4% on July 12, but that's still only a 6.9% jump.

And today it stands at 54.1%, so it's only up 4.6% since March 29th.

Quote:
As of, May 22, 2020. Trump’s approval rating was at a 49%.

No. It wasn't.

On May 22nd, Trump's approval was 45%.

At no time in May was Trump's approval over 46.3%.

At no time during his entire presidency was Trump's approval over 47.3%.

Quote:
Look at the poll you just posted again today. He went from 49% to 43% since May.

I didn't post a poll. I posted the RCP aggregate of polls, which I went to a lot of effort to explain to you. A complete waste of time, obviously.

In May he ranged from 43.6% to 46.3% Approval. Today he is at 43.6% Approval.

Quote:
Again, if you connect the poll

Not one poll. An aggregate of polls.

Quote:
to when it was taken and what events had and have occurred since, you gain insights into what’s actually happening. The day you posted the poll, Trumps approval ratings were already tanking again because of what just happened to economy two days before. This is how pollsters understand how to interpret polls. You see the poll as Trumps numbers going up because you lack insight.

I've got a lot of insight. I'm also not focusing on a single issue (or one single poll), which is the trap you're falling into.

Unwittingly, you're providing a hilarious example for everyone why you shouldn't take a single poll seriously and should instead use the aggregate of polls as the tool to judge trends by. At no point in time did you ever go around waving a 49% approval rating for Trump when one of those polls came out, even though you've always been quick to wave around single polls that show a horrible percentage for Trump.

But now that you (think that you) like the trajectory that Trump has been on since a single poll said he was at 49%, you LOVE waving that number around and have brought it up no less than 3 times in this post.

The problem is, th

THG

Sunday, August 2, 2020 11:32 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Quote:
Originally posted by THG:

tick tock
What about the money? The U.S. has thrown more than $6 trillion at the coronavirus crisis. That number could grow. Between Congress and the Federal Reserve, the government has committed record levels to try to stop an economic calamity — with just limited success.

$6 trillion can buy a President a lot of love on election day. Trump has that money. Obama did NOT, yet he still got reelected. If Trump doesn't get reelected, it means that the next round of free money, an additional $3 trillion added to the previous $6 trillion, wasn't enough. To put those numbers into context, the National debt held by the public at the end of March 2020 was $17.7 trillion. Such debt is issued in a range of maturities from 1-month bills to 30-year bonds.
www.pgpf.org/blog/2020/06/how-much-is-the-national-debt-what-are-the-d
ifferent-measures-used

Already baked into the pie second.

House Democrats passed a $3 trillion bill in May that would have extended the benefits for those without work at the current level of $600 per week, in addition to their weekly unemployment insurance check. Great Job, Democrats! Help Trump be reelected! However, Republicans have balked at the price tag. I sure hope the GOP kills the Democrats' very generous bill to reelect Trump.
www.cbsnews.com/news/white-house-democrats-closer-deal-covid-19-relief
-bill/

Key phrase is, democrats pass a $3 Trillion bill second. Another key phrase, the republicans blocked it. Add to that because of the republicans unemployment ran out Friday.

tick tock

T

Stupid people don't know they're stupid, and they certainly don't realize how obvious it is to others.

6IXSTRINGJACK

Monday, August 3, 2020 12:03 AM

This is a thread about polling aggregates.

Unless you would like to discuss them and learn why you haven't yet figured out how they work, I would recommend you keep your comments in your other threads.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

THG

Monday, August 3, 2020 12:07 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

This is a thread about polling aggregates.

Unless you would like to discuss them and learn why you haven't yet figured out how they work, I would recommend you keep your comments in your other threads.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

You're a funny guy Jack. You've been trolling me and others for years. Do you really think anyone gives a shit about what you want. Yep, you're a funny guy.

Add to that the fact you've been calling the mainstream media fake news for like, forever. Realclear politics is mainstream media. So Jack, why would you think for a second anyone would seek out an understanding of anything reported in the media from you? You viewed as a nut job here. Yep, you're a funny guy.

T

Stupid people don't know they're stupid, and they certainly don't realize how obvious it is to others.

SECOND

Monday, August 3, 2020 4:37 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

Democrats are largely to blame for where the economy is at right now. I'm aware that you don't believe this, but that point is moot. You were never going to vote to reelect Trump before the Democrats caused us to lose over 7 years of GDP gains in a single quarter. Fortunately for America, a lot of Americans know this.

I'd also heed Second's warning here as well.

Depsite the fact GDP has tanked, Trump essentially has a mandate to pass a new stimulus bill that will give everybody who isn't working free money for the next 3 months, and everybody else a 2nd stimulus check that's going to come with his signature on it again and another letter to every American.

People already forgot about the first one, but the second one is going to come right before election day. Right or wrong, that's huge free campaign advertising on the taxpayer's dime.

Spending $9 trillion this year to bribe voters WILL IMPROVE TRUMP'S POLLING NUMBERS.

The GOP has increased the National Debt by 50% in the last 6 months so that they could mail cash to voters. That has got to buy Trump millions and millions of votes.

The GOP is in charge of the economy, not Democrats. The economy crashed because the President and the Federal Reserve crashed it by NOT HANDLING Covid-19 with any sense of responsibility for what happens. Despite the crash, the GOP thinks it can buy the election with $9 trillion in cash to voters. Maybe it can. Maybe the famous "Independent" voters are that stupid or have amnesia about who was, and still is, in charge when the economy crashed.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

THG

Monday, August 3, 2020 5:30 AM

T

Stupid people don't know they're stupid, and they certainly don't realize how obvious it is to others.

North Carolina, Georgia both in play for Biden, Trump in November

THG

Monday, August 3, 2020 5:56 AM

T

Stupid people don't know they're stupid, and they certainly don't realize how obvious it is to others.

North Carolina, Georgia both in play for Biden, Trump in November

6IXSTRINGJACK

Monday, August 3, 2020 8:04 AM

This is a thread about polling aggregates.

Unless you would like to discuss them and learn why you haven't yet figured out how they work, I would recommend you keep your comments in your other threads.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

6IXSTRINGJACK

Monday, August 3, 2020 8:12 AM

The change today:

Addition of updated Emerson Poll:

CURRENT EMERSON: 7/29 - 7/30
APPROVE: 45
DISAPPROVE: 51
SPREAD: -6

PREVIOUS EMERSON: 6/2 - 6/3
APPROVE: 43
DISAPPROVE: 50
SPREAD: -7

CHANGE:
APPROVE: +2
DISAPPROVE: +1
SPREAD: -1

Do Right, Be Right. :)

6IXSTRINGJACK

Tuesday, August 4, 2020 12:07 AM

RCP Aggregate at 43.7% today. (+0.1 from yesterday. +0.5 since the day this lesson began.)

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_app
roval-6179.html

The changes today:

1. ADDITIONAL POLL:

Addition of updated Rasmussen Poll:

CURRENT RASMUSSEN REPORTS: 7/29 - 8/2
APPROVE: 51
DISAPPROVE: 47
SPREAD: +4

PREVIOUS RASMUSSEN REPORTS: 7/12 - 7/14
APPROVE: 48
DISAPPROVE: 50
SPREAD: -2

CHANGE:
APPROVE: +3
DISAPPROVE: -3
SPREAD: +6

LESSON OF THE DAY: This is one of the rare instances so far where a positive SPREAD for Trump is a good thing since he's in positive APPROVE territory on the Rasmussen Reports outlier poll.

As we've established in previous lessons, it is usually a bad thing for Trump when the SPREAD increases because usually on most polls as well as the Aggregate he polls with lower APPROVE than DISAPPROVE.

2. AGED POLLS (Which have fallen out of the Aggregate Date Range):

FOX NEWS: 7/12 - 7/15
APPROVE: 45
DISAPPROVE: 54
SPREAD: -9

ABC NEWS/WASH POST: 7/12 - 7/15
APPROVE: 40
DISAPPROVE: 58
SPREAD: -18

Until these firms release new polling data that falls within the RCP Aggregate, this means that their data is now considered too old to be a part of any averages.

SECOND LESSON OF THE DAY: This will actually be an update to a previous lesson about why we shouldn't count polls that aren't regularly done and have wild inconsistencies among their contemporaries. See my notes on the two most recent ABC NEWS/WASH POST polls at the end of the original lesson for the in depth reason why.

So... Here is what happened today regarding the polls that aged off. Both ABC/WASH POST and FOX NEWS's most recent polls have fallen off the aggregate today. FOX had a -9 spread on the last poll while ABC had a -18.

Because of this, we went from 11 total polls counted in the aggregate yesterday down to only 9 polls today.

And yet, there was only a minor change of +0.1 to the APPROVE for Trump.

This is because when you look at the two polls, the FOX NEWS poll showed a middling score for APPROVE and a middling DISAPPROVE compared to the rest in the pack, which actually made it toward the top in favor of Trump on the SPREAD with a -9. Only being beaten out by Emerson at -6 and Rasmussen with +4. The ABC NEWS showed the absolute low of 40 for APPROVE and the absolute high of 58 for DISAPPROVE in their most recent poll. Because of this, the bump Trump would have gotten by the ABC NEWS outlier falling off was negated entirely by the aging off of the FOX NEWS poll, and the fact that we are now dividing only by 9 firms rather than 11. This gives more power to each of the firms temporarily, and more of them are negative toward Trump than positive.

What does this mean?

In the short term it's going to mean more good news for Trump.

Why?

Two reasons:

1. Because if you look at the Historical Polling Table, you'll see that FOX NEWS has a poll every month, roughly during the second week of the month, while ABC NEWS only has one every other month.

This means that in another week or so we should expect another FOX NEWS poll on the aggregate, while it might not be until the end of August or early September before we get another ABC NEWS/WASH POST poll.

2. FOX NEWS was pretty middling on all three numbers. If current trends are anything to go by... and they are... expect a modest increase in Trump's favor to the aggregate when the new FOX poll comes out. And even if it were identical to the last poll, it would still be in Trump's favor because we'd be dividing by 10 now instead of 9, with numbers by FOX that are generally more positive than most of the other firms currently aggregated.

OTOH, ABC NEWS/WASH POST was an extreme outlier poll against Trump before it aged off, with all three numbers either being the least favorable for Trump or tied with the other outliers for least favorable. Barring a significant downturn for Trump before the new ABC NEWS/WASH POST poll is r

THG

Tuesday, August 4, 2020 1:27 AM

These are the countries right track wrong track numbers. Only 23.2% of the people polled believe the countries on the right track. 70.3% think it's not. No way Trump wins with numbers like this. I'll say it again, no way Trump wins with numbers like this.

This people, is the lesson for the day. These numbers are all fact, and zero speculation.

RCP Average 7/9 - 7/28 --___ 23.2____ 70.3____ -47.1

T

Stupid people don't know they're stupid, and they certainly don't realize how obvious it is to others.

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Tuesday, August 4, 2020 2:18 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
This information can be used to decipher any polling aggregate and to figure out how to follow trending information, but this was written specifically about the President Trump Job Approval on the RCP Aggregate in the Ruh Roh thread. I hope you find this informative, and please feel free to ask any questions or request that I further elaborate on anything. And by all means, if you believe that I have posted something in error please point that out as well.

PRESIDENT TRUMP JOB APPROVAL, THE RCP AGGREGATE 101

Quote:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_app
roval-6179.html

I. HOW IT ALL WORKS:
A step-by-step breakdown of the important information on the entire page.

I.A.: The "Polling Data" table on top of the graph.

Quote:
The first line highlighted in yellow is the RCP aggregate, or the average of all of the polls that were used in the table in real time (you might notice this page regularly refreshes on its own).

These numbers are what are plotted on the "RCP POLL AVERAGE: President Trump Job Approval" graph underneath the main table. (We'll get to that in detail shortly).

Believe it or not, I tried to keep this as brief as possible, but unfortunately it's not something you can explain to somebody in a paragraph or two (Ask me how I know).

I'll mention a minor technical error, based on how you composed your words. I noticed this when I first saw your post, when it was much smaller. I have not re-read the post after editing and expansion.

That 11.1% in the table you show, it is not an average of all of the other percentages in that column, which your sentences might imply. That would be an unweighted averaging. But that figure is from the gross total of all Approval responses from all of the polls, divided by the gross total of all of the responses from all of the polls. So an inaccurate/biased poll with more participants has greater weight than an accurate/unbiased poll with smaller sampling.

I might find something else when I check out the whole post.

THG

Tuesday, August 4, 2020 2:37 AM

I can't believe my eyes every time Jack and now JSF post poll numbers showing Trump getting his ass kicked. So, the number they keep posting is Trumps approval ratings.

43.4% as of a few days ago approve. This was before the economy tanked by a third, and 54.5% disapproved. And that number also reflects the mood of people before the economy tanked. That's 11.1% more people disapprove. Why the hell would they want to brag about that?

These are the countries right track wrong track numbers. Only 23.2% of the people polled believe the countries on the right track. 70.3% think it's not.

RCP Average 7/9 - 7/28 --___ 23.2____ 70.3____ -47.1

T

Stupid people don't know they're stupid, and they certainly don't realize how obvious it is to others.

1KIKI

Tuesday, August 4, 2020 3:14 AM

Yanno JACK, I can't believe you spent all those words to say the gap in the polls was narrowing.

But just as the polls are moving in one direction, the betting odds are moving in the other.

Anyway, while republicans in Congress are telling each other to cut loose from Trump if it'll help their reelection campaigns, democrats are urging Biden to skip the debates.

6IXSTRINGJACK

Tuesday, August 4, 2020 4:18 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
I'll mention a minor technical error, based on how you composed your words. I noticed this when I first saw your post, when it was much smaller. I have not re-read the post after editing and expansion.

That 11.1% in the table you show, it is not an average of all of the other percentages in that column, which your sentences might imply. That would be an unweighted averaging. But that figure is from the gross total of all Approval responses from all of the polls, divided by the gross total of all of the responses from all of the polls. So an inaccurate/biased poll with more participants has greater weight than an accurate/unbiased poll with smaller sampling.

I might find something else when I check out the whole post.

I'm going to need you to be more specific, and how you would rather I word it.

The 11.1 is the SPREAD. Because the polls show a higher DISAPPROVE than APPROVE for Trump, the lower the SPREAD the better. The inverse would be true if his APPROVE were higher than his DISAPPROVE.

Just like the APPROVE and DISAPPROVE columns, the SPREAD is calculated by adding up all of the SPREAD(s) from the polls in the Aggregate, then dividing by how many polls were in the Aggregate.

ie: -6 +2 -18 -9 -11 -12 -12 -17 -12 -9 -18 = 122

122 / 11 (polls in the aggregate) = 11.0909090909 (to inifinity) or 11.1

On a side note, it seems that Ted is still oblivious to the point of this thread.

The polls are biased bullshit today, just as they were in 2016. Perhaps more so.

But that doesn't mean that they're still not useful when comparing them to themselves to find how things are TRENDING.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

6IXSTRINGJACK

Tuesday, August 4, 2020 4:21 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by 1KIKI:
Yanno JACK, I can't believe you spent all those words to say the gap in the polls was narrowing.

That's not what I did.

I've already said that, but Ted doesn't get it.

I did it to try to teach Ted how polls and polling aggregates work. But more importantly, how and why to follow how polls are trending.

And now, until I hear back from JSF, I'm not so sure that he couldn't benefit from the lesson as well. At least in regard to how the spread works and what its function is.

Maybe if you have more to say yourself, we'll find out that you don't know how polling aggregates work either?

Do Right, Be Right. :)

6IXSTRINGJACK

Tuesday, August 4, 2020 4:29 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by THG:
These are the countries right track wrong track numbers. Only 23.2% of the people polled believe the countries on the right track. 70.3% think it's not.

So what?

70.3% believe the country is not on the right track.

Yet nearly 44% approve of the job that Trump is doing.

That would suggest to me that a great deal of those people who aren't happy with the way things are going aren't saying anything bad about Trump and what he's trying to do, and that's more a referendum on other people.

That's bad news for Biden.

That's why we've got a record number of new gun owners this year that certainly aren't going to be voting for Biden.

BLM, Antifa and Mask Karens are going to kill Biden's chances.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

THG

Tuesday, August 4, 2020 4:30 AM

Hint, the Rasmuson poll that puts trumps approval at 50% is the outlier. Without that, Oops. Another reason why Trumps approval in not 43%.

T

Stupid people don't know they're stupid, and they certainly don't realize how obvious it is to others.

6IXSTRINGJACK

Tuesday, August 4, 2020 4:35 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by THG:
Hint, the Rasmuson poll that puts trumps approval at 50% is the outlier. Without that, Oops. Another reason why Trumps approval in not 43%.

T

Stupid people don't know they're stupid, and they certainly don't realize how obvious it is to others.

It is AN outlier. Which I've already pointed out several times. (Do a CTRL+ F and search for outlier, and you'll see that this is the case).

There are several on the other side as well.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

THG

Tuesday, August 4, 2020 4:44 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Quote:
Originally posted by THG:
Hint, the Rasmuson poll that puts trumps approval at 50% is the outlier. Without that, Oops. Another reason why Trumps approval in not 43%.

T

Stupid people don't know they're stupid, and they certainly don't realize how obvious it is to others.

It is AN outlier. Which I've already pointed out several times. (Do a CTRL+ F and search for outlier, and you'll see that this is the case).

There are several on the other side as well.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

Sure dummy, but you keep forgetting to say because of this, Trumps approval rating is closer to 41%, not 43%. And Jack, that means there never was an uptick for Trump. As for outliners for Biden. His spread only differs 6%. Can you see it Jack, can you see it?

Now Jack, can you recognize who is schooling who? I think not, but I wanted to point it out anyway.

T

Stupid people don't know they're stupid, and they certainly don't realize how obvious it is to others.

1KIKI

Tuesday, August 4, 2020 5:39 AM

JACK - how far back do you want to go, and how many polls do you want to eliminate?

Here's one poll, all the way back to the beginning (most recent at the top):

ABC/WP 7/12 - 7/15 845 RV 40 58 -18
ABC/WP 5/25 - 5/28 835 RV 45 53 -8
ABC/WP 3/22 - 3/25 845 RV 49 47 2
ABC/WP 2/14 - 2/17 913 RV 46 52 -6
ABC/WP 1/20 - 1/23 880 RV 47 50 -3
ABC/WP 10/27 - 10/30 876 RV 39 59 -20
ABC/WP 9/2 - 9/5 877 RV 40 55 -15
ABC/WP 6/28 - 7/1 875 RV 47 50 -3
ABC/WP 4/22 - 4/25 865 RV 42 54 -12
ABC/WP 1/21 - 1/24 893 RV 38 58 -20
ABC/WP 10/29 - 11/1 1041 RV 44 52 -8
ABC/WP 10/8 - 10/11 991 RV 43 53 -10
ABC/WP 8/26 - 8/29 879 RV 38 60 -22
ABC/WP 4/8 - 4/11 865 RV 44 54 -10
ABC/WP 1/15 - 1/18 846 RV 38 58 -20
ABC/WP 10/29 - 11/1 884 RV 38 58 -20
ABC/WP 9/18 - 9/21 RV 42 54 -12
ABC/WP 8/16 - 8/20 RV 39 58 -19
ABC/WP 7/10 - 7/13 RV 39 56 -17
ABC/WP 4/17 - 4/20 1004 A 42 53 -11

If I go back to the beginning of this year, Trump's in trouble. If I go ALL they way back, he's doing more or less the same.

Here's another one, but with merely uniformly bad news.
CBS News 5/29 - 6/2 1309 A 40 54 -14
CBS News 1/26 - 1/29 1202 A 43 51 -8
CBS News 5/17 - 5/20 1101 A 41 52 -11
CBS News 1/18 - 1/21 1102 A 36 59 -23
CBS News 11/15 - 11/18 1103 A 39 55 -16
CBS News 10/14 - 10/17 RV 42 53 -11
CBS News 6/14 - 6/17 1100 A 42 52 -10
CBS News 5/3 - 5/6 1101 A 40 55 -15
CBS News 3/8 - 3/11 1223 A 38 57 -19
CBS News 1/13 - 1/16 1225 A 37 58 -21
CBS News 12/3 - 12/5 1120 A 36 57 -21
CBS News 10/27 - 10/30 1109 A 39 55 -16
CBS News 9/21 - 9/24 1202 A 35 55 -20
CBS News 8/3 - 8/6 1111 A 36 58 -22
CBS News 6/15 - 6/18 1117 A 36 57 -21
CBS News 4/21 - 4/24 1214 A 41 53 -12
CBS News 4/7 - 4/9 1006 A 43 49 -6
CBS News 3/25 - 3/28 1088 A 40 52 -12
CBS News 2/17 - 2/21 1280 A 39 51 -12
CBS News 2/1 - 2/2 1019 A 40 48 -8

CNN looked hopeful from the beginning of the year as compared to his historic polling, but the last poll took a serious dump.
CNN 6/2 - 6/5 1125 RV 40 57 -17
CNN 5/7 - 5/10 1001 RV 46 51 -5
CNN 4/3 - 4/6 875 RV 44 53 -9
CNN 3/4 - 3/7 1084 RV 45 52 -7
CNN 1/16 - 1/19 1051 RV 45 51 -6
CNN 12/12 - 12/15 888 RV 44 52 -8
CNN 11/21 - 11/24 910 RV 43 53 -10
CNN 10/17 - 10/20 892 RV 42 57 -15
CNN 9/5 - 9/9 1526 RV 42 54 -12
CNN 8/15 - 8/18 886 RV 41 54 -13
CNN 6/28 - 6/30 1466 RV 45 51 -6
CNN 5/28 - 5/31 902 RV 43 53 -10
CNN 4/25 - 4/28 913 RV 44 53 -9
CNN 3/14 - 3/17 914 RV 43 51 -8
CNN 1/30 - 2/2 RV 42 54 -12
CNN 1/10 - 1/11 848 A 37 57 -20
CNN 12/6 - 12/9 RV 40 53 -13
CNN 11/1 - 11/3 1151 LV 41 57 -16
CNN 10/4 - 10/7 920 RV 43 52 -9
CNN 9/6 - 9/9 923 RV 37 57 -20
CNN 8/9 - 8/12 921 RV 44 53 -9
CNN 6/14 - 6/17 901 RV 41 54 -13
CNN 5/2 - 5/5 901 RV 44 51 -7
CNN 3/22 - 3/25 913 RV 43 53 -10
CNN 2/20 - 2/23 909 RV 39 56 -17
CNN 1/14 - 1/18 RV 43 53 -10
CNN 12/14 - 12/17 898 RV 36 59 -23
CNN 11/2 - 11/5 RV 38 57 -19
CNN 10/12 - 10/15 RV 38 57 -19
CNN 9/26 - 9/28 1037 A 37 56 -19
CNN 9/17 - 9/20 RV 42 53 -11
CNN 8/3 - 8/6 RV 40 56 -16

So, what do you want us to do, JACK? Squint our eyes and eliminate those bad polls and select our timeframe to create a particular outcome?

THG

Tuesday, August 4, 2020 5:46 AM

You guys crack me up. The only numbers that matter are those that are current. Not knowing that just shows your ignorance.

43.4% as of a few days ago approve. This was before the economy tanked by a third, and 54.5% disapproved. And that number also reflects the mood of people before the economy tanked. That's 11.1% more people disapproving. We've also discussed why Trumps extreme outliers exaggerate his 43% approval number.

These are the countries right track wrong track numbers. Only 23.2% of the people polled believe the countries on the right track. 70.3% think it's not.

RCP Average 7/9 - 7/28 --___ 23.2____ 70.3____ -47.1

T

Stupid people don't know they're stupid, and they certainly don't realize how obvious it is to others.

T

Stupid people don't know they're stupid, and they certainly don't realize how obvious it is to others.

1KIKI

Tuesday, August 4, 2020 5:47 AM

I imported ALL job approval data on Trump.

I eliminated those polls that didn't have at least 3 polls this year.

I found the 2020 average for EACH remaining poll.

I compared the average of the 3 most recent polls in each for Trump compared to his 2020 average in that poll.

In all instances but one, Trump was either down slightly or significantly comparing his most recent results to his 2020 average. In the exception, he was only up by 1 pct point from his 2020 average.

HOW TO EXPLAIN THE GRAPH: Many polling groups had no recent (July 2020) polling on Trump, leaving a particular subset to dominate the graph.

NOTE: I MAKE NO PREDICTIONS ABOUT WHICH WAY THE GRAPH WILL GO. LOOKING AT PAST DATA ONE CAN FIND MANY INSTANCES OF UNEXPECTED REVERSALS FROM POSITIVE TO NEGATIVE, OR NEGATIVE TO POSITIVE.

THG

Tuesday, August 4, 2020 5:52 AM

Really kiki, really. Let's see the numbers and calculations. For instance, what is his current job approval according to you?

T

Stupid people don't know they're stupid, and they certainly don't realize how obvious it is to others.

1KIKI

Tuesday, August 4, 2020 5:59 AM

HEY DOOOD ! STUPIDO !

YEAH ...*** YOU ! ***

I don't NEED to calculate Trump's overall approval rating and come up with my own number.

It's *** RIGHT HERE ***

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_app
roval-6179.html

Currently at 43.7%

My god what a dumb fuck you are.

6IXSTRINGJACK

Tuesday, August 4, 2020 6:05 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by 1KIKI:
HEY DOOOD ! STUPIDO !

YEAH ...*** YOU ! ***

I don't NEED to calculate Trump's overall approval rating and come up with my own number.

It's *** RIGHT HERE ***

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_app
roval-6179.html

Currently at 43.7%

My god what a dumb fuck you are.

lol.

Yup.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

6IXSTRINGJACK

Tuesday, August 4, 2020 6:07 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by THG:
Sure dummy, but you keep forgetting to say because of this, Trumps approval rating is closer to 41%, not 43%.

I'm never going to say that because all of the polls are bullshit, just like they were in 2016.

He's doing WAY better than those polls suggest he is, just as was the case in 2016.

THAT IS NOT THE FUCKING POINT OF WATCHING TRENDS ON THE AGGREGATE FOR THE 1000 FUCKING TIME, IDIOT.

Quote:
And Jack, that means there never was an uptick for Trump.

And what fucking planet are you living on when this is the conclusion you draw?

Every one of those polls, even the most anti-Trump poll out there, is giving the uptick to Trump.

THAT is the point of following the trends. Not buying their numbers, but watching which way things are trending.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

THG

Tuesday, August 4, 2020 6:09 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by 1KIKI:
I imported ALL job approval data on Trump.

I eliminated those polls that didn't have at least 3 polls this year.

I found the 2020 average for EACH remaining poll.

I compared the average of the 3 most recent polls in each for Trump compared to his 2020 average in that poll.

In all instances but one, Trump was either down slightly or significantly comparing his most recent results to his 2020 average. In the exception, he was only up by 1 pct point from his 2020 average.

HOW TO EXPLAIN THE GRAPH: Many polling groups had no recent (July 2020) polling on Trump, leaving a particular subset to dominate the graph.

Really kiki, really. Let's see the numbers and calculations. For instance, what is his current job approval according to you?

T

NOTE: I MAKE NO PREDICTIONS ABOUT WHICH WAY THE GRAPH WILL GO. LOOKING AT PAST DATA ONE CAN FIND MANY INSTANCES OF UNEXPECTED REVERSALS FROM POSITIVE TO NEGATIVE, OR NEGATIVE TO POSITIVE.

Quote:
Originally posted by 1KIKI:
HEY DOOOD ! STUPIDO !

YEAH ...*** YOU ! ***

I don't NEED to calculate Trump's overall approval rating and come up with my own number.

It's *** RIGHT HERE ***

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_app
roval-6179.html

Currently at 43.7%

My god what a dumb fuck you are.

What a fucking moron, and as we already know, a lier. Holy shit, between you Jack and sig I'm having too much fun to change the channel, so to speak.

T

Stupid people don't know they're stupid, and they certainly don't realize how obvious it is to others.

6IXSTRINGJACK

Tuesday, August 4, 2020 6:10 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by 1KIKI:
I imported ALL job approval data on Trump.

I eliminated those polls that didn't have at least 3 polls this year.

I found the 2020 average for EACH remaining poll.

I compared the average of the 3 most recent polls in each for Trump compared to his 2020 average in that poll.

In all instances but one, Trump was either down slightly or significantly comparing his most recent results to his 2020 average. In the exception, he was only up by 1 pct point from his 2020 average.

HOW TO EXPLAIN THE GRAPH: Many polling groups had no recent (July 2020) polling on Trump, leaving a particular subset to dominate the graph.

NOTE: I MAKE NO PREDICTIONS ABOUT WHICH WAY THE GRAPH WILL GO. LOOKING AT PAST DATA ONE CAN FIND MANY INSTANCES OF UNEXPECTED REVERSALS FROM POSITIVE TO NEGATIVE, OR NEGATIVE TO POSITIVE.

Do you have this graph somewhere available for download?

I'm not understanding exactly what you're trying to say here and I'll need to see all of the data as you've processed it to know what you're talking about.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

6IXSTRINGJACK

Tuesday, August 4, 2020 6:16 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by 1KIKI:
JACK - how far back do you want to go, and how many polls do you want to eliminate?

Here's one poll, all the way back to the beginning (most recent at the top):

ABC/WP 7/12 - 7/15 845 RV 40 58 -18
ABC/WP 5/25 - 5/28 835 RV 45 53 -8
ABC/WP 3/22 - 3/25 845 RV 49 47 2
ABC/WP 2/14 - 2/17 913 RV 46 52 -6
ABC/WP 1/20 - 1/23 880 RV 47 50 -3
ABC/WP 10/27 - 10/30 876 RV 39 59 -20
ABC/WP 9/2 - 9/5 877 RV 40 55 -15
ABC/WP 6/28 - 7/1 875 RV 47 50 -3
ABC/WP 4/22 - 4/25 865 RV 42 54 -12
ABC/WP 1/21 - 1/24 893 RV 38 58 -20
ABC/WP 10/29 - 11/1 1041 RV 44 52 -8
ABC/WP 10/8 - 10/11 991 RV 43 53 -10
ABC/WP 8/26 - 8/29 879 RV 38 60 -22
ABC/WP 4/8 - 4/11 865 RV 44 54 -10
ABC/WP 1/15 - 1/18 846 RV 38 58 -20
ABC/WP 10/29 - 11/1 884 RV 38 58 -20
ABC/WP 9/18 - 9/21 RV 42 54 -12
ABC/WP 8/16 - 8/20 RV 39 58 -19
ABC/WP 7/10 - 7/13 RV 39 56 -17
ABC/WP 4/17 - 4/20 1004 A 42 53 -11

If I go back to the beginning of this year, Trump's in trouble. If I go ALL they way back, he's doing more or less the same.

Here's another one, but with merely uniformly bad news.
CBS News 5/29 - 6/2 1309 A 40 54 -14
CBS News 1/26 - 1/29 1202 A 43 51 -8
CBS News 5/17 - 5/20 1101 A 41 52 -11
CBS News 1/18 - 1/21 1102 A 36 59 -23
CBS News 11/15 - 11/18 1103 A 39 55 -16
CBS News 10/14 - 10/17 RV 42 53 -11
CBS News 6/14 - 6/17 1100 A 42 52 -10
CBS News 5/3 - 5/6 1101 A 40 55 -15
CBS News 3/8 - 3/11 1223 A 38 57 -19
CBS News 1/13 - 1/16 1225 A 37 58 -21
CBS News 12/3 - 12/5 1120 A 36 57 -21
CBS News 10/27 - 10/30 1109 A 39 55 -16
CBS News 9/21 - 9/24 1202 A 35 55 -20
CBS News 8/3 - 8/6 1111 A 36 58 -22
CBS News 6/15 - 6/18 1117 A 36 57 -21
CBS News 4/21 - 4/24 1214 A 41 53 -12
CBS News 4/7 - 4/9 1006 A 43 49 -6
CBS News 3/25 - 3/28 1088 A 40 52 -12
CBS News 2/17 - 2/21 1280 A 39 51 -12
CBS News 2/1 - 2/2 1019 A 40 48 -8

CNN looked hopeful from the beginning of the year as compared to his historic polling, but the last poll took a serious dump.
CNN 6/2 - 6/5 1125 RV 40 57 -17
CNN 5/7 - 5/10 1001 RV 46 51 -5
CNN 4/3 - 4/6 875 RV 44 53 -9
CNN 3/4 - 3/7 1084 RV 45 52 -7
CNN 1/16 - 1/19 1051 RV 45 51 -6
CNN 12/12 - 12/15 888 RV 44 52 -8
CNN 11/21 - 11/24 910 RV 43 53 -10
CNN 10/17 - 10/20 892 RV 42 57 -15
CNN 9/5 - 9/9 1526 RV 42 54 -12
CNN 8/15 - 8/18 886 RV 41 54 -13
CNN 6/28 - 6/30 1466 RV 45 51 -6
CNN 5/28 - 5/31 902 RV 43 53 -10
CNN 4/25 - 4/28 913 RV 44 53 -9
CNN 3/14 - 3/17 914 RV 43 51 -8
CNN 1/30 - 2/2 RV 42 54 -12
CNN 1/10 - 1/11 848 A 37 57 -20
CNN 12/6 - 12/9 RV 40 53 -13
CNN 11/1 - 11/3 1151 LV 41 57 -16
CNN 10/4 - 10/7 920 RV 43 52 -9
CNN 9/6 - 9/9 923 RV 37 57 -20
CNN 8/9 - 8/12 921 RV 44 53 -9
CNN 6/14 - 6/17 901 RV 41 54 -13
CNN 5/2 - 5/5 901 RV 44 51 -7
CNN 3/22 - 3/25 913 RV 43 53 -10
CNN 2/20 - 2/23 909 RV 39 56 -17
CNN 1/14 - 1/18 RV 43 53 -10
CNN 12/14 - 12/17 898 RV 36 59 -23
CNN 11/2 - 11/5 RV 38 57 -19
CNN 10/12 - 10/15 RV 38 57 -19
CNN 9/26 - 9/28 1037 A 37 56 -19
CNN 9/17 - 9/20 RV 42 53 -11
CNN 8/3 - 8/6 RV 40 56 -16

So, what do you want us to do, JACK? Squint our eyes and eliminate those bad polls and select our timeframe to create a particular outcome?

Well here, you're missing the point.

If you compare those CNN polls to its contemporaries, and specifically polls which generally are in agreement with CNN plus or minus a few points, you should find that they match up pretty well with those other polling firms on the dates that you're looking at.

The ABC NEWS/WASH POST polls, at least the last two, are hugely inconsistent. The on at the beginning of June was as much a pro-Trump outlier as Rasmussen Reports was. But the one that just aged off from the middle of July was as much an Anti-Trump outlier as Politico or Reuters.

Because of this, that is polling that you can't count on.

Obviously, Rasmussen and Reuters are going to have extreme differences in any two polls from the same timeframe, but we expect this because they are extreme outliers on either side,

THG

Tuesday, August 4, 2020 6:17 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Quote:
Originally posted by 1KIKI:
I imported ALL job approval data on Trump.

I eliminated those polls that didn't have at least 3 polls this year.

I found the 2020 average for EACH remaining poll.

I compared the average of the 3 most recent polls in each for Trump compared to his 2020 average in that poll.

In all instances but one, Trump was either down slightly or significantly comparing his most recent results to his 2020 average. In the exception, he was only up by 1 pct point from his 2020 average.

HOW TO EXPLAIN THE GRAPH: Many polling groups had no recent (July 2020) polling on Trump, leaving a particular subset to dominate the graph.

NOTE: I MAKE NO PREDICTIONS ABOUT WHICH WAY THE GRAPH WILL GO. LOOKING AT PAST DATA ONE CAN FIND MANY INSTANCES OF UNEXPECTED REVERSALS FROM POSITIVE TO NEGATIVE, OR NEGATIVE TO POSITIVE.

Do you have this graph somewhere available for download?

I'm not understanding exactly what you're trying to say here and I'll need to see all of the data as you've processed it to know what you're talking about.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

Not to worry Jack. Kiki doesn't understand what she's saying either. And that's because she is speaking gibberish.

T

Stupid people don't know they're stupid, and they certainly don't realize how obvious it is to others.

6IXSTRINGJACK

Tuesday, August 4, 2020 6:19 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by THG:
Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Quote:
Originally posted by 1KIKI:
I imported ALL job approval data on Trump.

I eliminated those polls that didn't have at least 3 polls this year.

I found the 2020 average for EACH remaining poll.

I compared the average of the 3 most recent polls in each for Trump compared to his 2020 average in that poll.

In all instances but one, Trump was either down slightly or significantly comparing his most recent results to his 2020 average. In the exception, he was only up by 1 pct point from his 2020 average.

HOW TO EXPLAIN THE GRAPH: Many polling groups had no recent (July 2020) polling on Trump, leaving a particular subset to dominate the graph.

NOTE: I MAKE NO PREDICTIONS ABOUT WHICH WAY THE GRAPH WILL GO. LOOKING AT PAST DATA ONE CAN FIND MANY INSTANCES OF UNEXPECTED REVERSALS FROM POSITIVE TO NEGATIVE, OR NEGATIVE TO POSITIVE.

Do you have this graph somewhere available for download?

I'm not understanding exactly what you're trying to say here and I'll need to see all of the data as you've processed it to know what you're talking about.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

Not to worry Jack. Kiki doesn't understand what she's saying either. And that's because she is speaking gibberish.

T

Stupid people don't know they're stupid, and they certainly don't realize how obvious it is to others.

At least she's trying.

Because of that, I'm curious to see what she has come up with and exactly what she is saying.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

THG

Tuesday, August 4, 2020 6:23 AM

Hey, in all seriousness. I want to thank all of you for continually posting these polls that are devastating to Trump. I'm not sure he'd be happy with you guys, but I sure am.

And again, welcome to the never Trump club.

T

Stupid people don't know they're stupid, and they certainly don't realize how obvious it is to others.

THG

Tuesday, August 4, 2020 6:40 AM

Lying isn't trying Jack. If you had half a brain you'd know that.

T

Stupid people don't know they're stupid, and they certainly don't realize how obvious it is to others.

1KIKI

Tuesday, August 4, 2020 7:05 AM

THUGGER - if you had half a brain - which seriously would be an improvement - you'd know that I'm saying that Trump isn't doing as well as JACK thinks he is.

But KEEP POSTING TO PROVE ME WRONG !

You're a hoot whenever you repeatedly shoot yourself in the foot !

1KIKI

Tuesday, August 4, 2020 7:34 AM

ABC/WP 7/12 - 7/15 -18
ABC/WP 5/25 - 5/28 -8
ABC/WP 3/22 - 3/25 2
ABC/WP 2/14 - 2/17 -6
ABC/WP 1/20 - 1/23 -3

last 3 polls average -8
2020 average -6.6

CNBC 7/24 - 7/26 -12
CNBC 7/10 - 7/12 -14
CNBC 6/26 - 6/28 -14
CNBC 6/19 - 6/22 -13
CNBC 6/12 - 6/14 -14
CNBC 5/29 - 5/31 -12
CNBC 5/15 - 5/17 -8
CNBC 5/1 - 5/3 -8
CNBC 4/3 - 4/6 3

last 3 polls average -13.3333333333333
2020 average -10.2222222222222

CNN 6/2 - 6/5 -17
CNN 5/7 - 5/10 -5
CNN 4/3 - 4/6 -9
CNN 3/4 - 3/7 -7
CNN 1/16 - 1/19 -6

last 3 polls average -12.6666666666667
2020 average -8.8

Emerson 7/29 - 7/30 -6
Emerson 6/2 - 6/3 -7
Emerson 4/26 - 4/28 -9
Emerson 3/18 - 3/19 1
Emerson 2/16 - 2/18 4
Emerson 1/21 - 1/23 -1

last 3 polls average -7.33333333333333
2020 average -3

FOX News 7/12 - 7/15 -9
FOX News 6/13 - 6/16 -11
FOX News 5/17 - 5/20 -10
FOX News 4/4 - 4/7 0
FOX News 3/21 - 3/24 -3
FOX News 2/23 - 2/26 -5
FOX News 1/19 - 1/22 -9

last 3 polls average -10
2020 average -6.71428571428571

Gallup 7/1 - 7/23 -15
Gallup 6/8 - 6/30 -19
Gallup 5/28 - 6/4 -18
Gallup 5/1 - 5/13 1
Gallup 4/14 - 4/28 2
Gallup 4/1 - 4/14 -11
Gallup 3/13 - 3/22 4
Gallup 3/2 - 3/13 -8
Gallup 2/17 - 2/28 -4
Gallup 2/3 - 2/16 1
Gallup 1/16 - 1/29 -1
Gallup 1/2 - 1/15 -10

last 3 polls average -12.6666666666667
2020 average -6.5

Harris 7/21 - 7/23 -12
Harris 6/17 - 6/18 -14
Harris 5/13 - 5/14 -6
Harris 4/14 - 4/16 -2
Harris 3/24 - 3/26 -4
Harris 2/26 - 2/28 -6
Harris 1/27 - 1/29 -8

last 3 polls average -10.6666666666667
2020 average -7.42857142857143

IBD/TIPP 7/25 - 7/28 -11
IBD/TIPP 6/27 - 6/30 -17
IBD/TIPP 5/31 - 6/3 -10
IBD/TIPP 4/26 - 4/29 0
IBD/TIPP 3/29 - 4/1 0
IBD/TIPP 2/20 - 2/29 -13
IBD/TIPP 1/23 - 1/30 -7
IBD/TIPP 1/3 - 1/11 -8

last 3 polls average -12.6666666666667
2020 average -8.25

Monmouth 6/26 - 6/30 -13
Monmouth 5/28 - 6/1 -11
Monmouth 4/30 - 5/4 -7
Monmouth 4/3 - 4/7 -3
Monmouth 3/18 - 3/22 0
Monmouth 2/6 - 2/9 -7
Monmouth 1/16 - 1/20 -9

last 3 polls average -10.3333333333333
2020 average -7.14285714285714

NBC/WSJ 7/9 - 7/12 -14
NBC/WSJ 5/28 - 6/2 -8
NBC/WSJ 4/13 - 4/15 -5
NBC/WSJ 3/11 - 3/13 -5
NBC/WSJ 2/14 - 2/17 -3
NBC/WSJ 1/26 - 1/29 -5

last 3 polls average -9
2020 average -6.66666666666667

NPR/PBS 6/22 - 6/24 -16
NPR/PBS 6/2 - 6/3 -13
NPR/PBS 3/13 - 3/14 -7
NPR/PBS 2/13 - 2/16 -7
NPR/PBS 1/7 - 1/12 -11 -8.54545454545455

last 3 polls average -12
2020 average -8.54545454545455

Politico 7/24 - 7/26 -17 -16.3333333333333
Politico 7/17 - 7/19 -17
Politico 7/10 - 7/12 -15
Politico 6/26 - 6/29 -20
Politico 6/19 - 6/21 -19
Politico 6/12 - 6/14 -17
Politico 6/6 - 6/7 -19
Politico 5/29 - 6/1 -14
Politico 5/22 - 5/26 -17
Politico 5/15 - 5/18 -14
Politico 5/8 - 5/10 -10
Politico 5/2 - 5/3 -10
Politico 4/24 - 4/26 -8
Politico 4/18 - 4/19 -7
Politico 4/10 - 4/12 -7
Politico 4/3 - 4/5 -10
Politico 3/27 - 3/29 -7
Politico 3/20 - 3/22 -7
Politico 3/13 - 3/16 -11
Politico 3/6 - 3/8 -9
Politico 2/28 - 3/1 -9
Politico 2/21 - 2/23 -7
Politico 2/15 - 2/17 -12
Politico 2/7 - 1/9 -11
Politico 1/24 - 1/26 -14
Politico 1/17 - 1/19 -10
Politico 1/10 - 1/12 -11
Politico 1/4 - 1/5 -15

last 3 polls average -16.3333333333333
2020 average -12.2857142857143

Quinnipiac 7/9 - 7/13 -24
Quinnipiac 6/11 - 6/15 -13
Quinnipiac 5/14 - 5/18 -11
Quinnipiac 4/2 - 4/6 -6
Quinnipiac 3/5 - 3/8 -13
Quinnipiac 2/5 - 2/9 -10
Quinnipiac 1/22 - 1/27 -9
Quinnipiac 1/8 - 1/12 -9

last 3 polls average -16
2020 average -11.875

Rasmussen 7/29 - 8/2 4
Rasmussen 7/12 - 7/14 -2
Rasmussen 7/5 - 7/7 -10
Rasmussen 6/28 - 6/30 -10
Rasmussen 6/21 - 6/23 -5
Rasmussen 6/14 - 6/16 -7
Rasmussen 6/8 - 6/10 -13
Rasmussen 6/1 - 6/3 -6
Rasmussen 5/25 - 5/27 -9
Rasmussen 5/18 - 5/20 -9
Rasmussen 5/11 - 5/13 -3
Rasmussen 5/4 - 5/6 1
Rasmussen 4/27 - 4/29 -6
Rasmussen 4/20 - 4/22 -11
Rasmussen 4/13 - 4/15 -7
Rasmussen 4/6 - 4/8 -6
Rasmussen 3/30 - 4/1 -2

6IXSTRINGJACK

Tuesday, August 4, 2020 8:06 AM

Okay, I see your data now.

Quote:
THUGGER - if you had half a brain - which seriously would be an improvement - you'd know that I'm saying that Trump isn't doing as well as JACK thinks he is.

I don't think that I was ever saying that Trump is doing as well as you think I'm saying that Trump is doing right now.

Of course he's off of his high for the year. ESPECIALLY if you're looking at the last three polls compared to the entire year, since even right now is lower than he was doing in the first 4 or 5 months, and in most cases the previous two polls were his rock bottom for the year.

Once again, that's not my point.

The trend is upward. By every conceivable measure.

Ted still says to this day that this is not the case.

This is because Ted doesn't know how to read.

And he still thinks that I'm showing him good news when I show these polls because they have Trump down. They've always had Trump down. They will always have Trump down. Even in 2016 before he was elected. Even right before he's reelected in November. Even every day all four years of his second term.

He doesn't need 50 to win. If it were any other president I would say he needs 47. But because it's Trump and people just aren't saying that they're Trump supporters IRL because they don't want to be abused by people like Ted and Second's sockpuppet and Wishy, Trump only needs 45 going into election week to win.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

1KIKI

Tuesday, August 4, 2020 8:21 AM

Quote:
The trend is upward. By every conceivable measure.

Except the polls. And the betting sites.

REAVERFAN

Tuesday, August 4, 2020 9:42 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK

Tuesday, August 4, 2020 11:05 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by 1KIKI:

Quote:
The trend is upward. By every conceivable measure.
Except the polls.

WTF Karen.

Can't you read?

Congratulations.

Both you and Ted are retarded.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

1KIKI

Tuesday, August 4, 2020 11:50 AM

Maybe you don't understand how RealClearPolitics reports their chart.

Poll
IBD/TIPP

Date
7/25 - 7/28

Sample
1160 RV

Approve
41

Disapprove
52

Spread
-11

They report it in a way that's intuitively obvious: when more DISapprove than APProve it's a bad thing - and the number is negative. (ie A negative number is associated with a bad situation.) A negative number is a BAD THING. Getting a more negative number is a WORSE THING.

If your yearly average is -8 but your recent average is -12 you're doing worse now than average and it's a BAD THING.

Here are the final numbers, without the data. Note that in all but 1 poll (Rasmussen), Trump has a more negative number recently than his to-date 2020 average.

ABC/WP
last 3 polls average -8
2020 average -6.6

CNBC
last 3 polls average -13.3333333333333
2020 average -10.2222222222222

CNN
last 3 polls average -12.6666666666667
2020 average -8.8

Emerson
last 3 polls average -7.33333333333333
2020 average -3

FOX News
last 3 polls average -10
2020 average -6.71428571428571

Gallup
last 3 polls average -12.6666666666667
2020 average -6.5

Harris
last 3 polls average -10.6666666666667
2020 average -7.42857142857143

IBD/TIPP
last 3 polls average -12.6666666666667
2020 average -8.25

Monmouth
last 3 polls average -10.3333333333333
2020 average -7.14285714285714

NBC/WSJ
last 3 polls average -9
2020 average -6.66666666666667

NPR/PBS
last 3 polls average -12
2020 average -8.54545454545455

Politico
last 3 polls average -16.3333333333333
2020 average -12.2857142857143

Quinnipiac
last 3 polls average -16
2020 average -11.875

Rasmussen
last 3 polls average -2.66666666666667
2020 average -4.48148148148148

Reuters
last 3 polls average -17.3333333333333
2020 average -13.1111111111111

The Hill
last 3 polls average -10
2020 average -7.1

YouGov
last 3 polls average -12.6666666666667
2020 average -8.96666666666667

Within each poll (except one) (your metric) Trump is doing worse now than average.

6IXSTRINGJACK

Tuesday, August 4, 2020 2:07 PM

You're not telling me anything I don't know, regarding those numbers.

I don't know what you're trying to argue here.

His numbers are up. Not up to where they were back in March, but they're certainly up from where they were a month to a month and a half ago.

They went down too during the peak of the fake impeachment. Then they went back up again. We're witnessing it going back up again. To deny it is stupid. You're not looking at the trend. You're using an obscure way of manipulating the data, and I can't figure out to what end.

I get why Ted denies it. Why are you acting stupid?

Do Right, Be Right. :)

6IXSTRINGJACK

Tuesday, August 4, 2020 2:07 PM

Vaush is a soy cuck tard.

200K subs and only 65k views. People have just forgotten to unsubscribe to him at this point.

1KIKI

Tuesday, August 4, 2020 2:38 PM

Quote:
His numbers are up.

Not according to YOUR metric - that one must look ONLY at within-poll results.

THG

Tuesday, August 4, 2020 8:48 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

You're not telling me anything I don't know, regarding those numbers.

I don't know what you're trying to argue here.

His numbers are up. Not up to where they were back in March, but they're certainly up from where they were a month to a month and a half ago.

They went down too during the peak of the fake impeachment. Then they went back up again. We're witnessing it going back up again. To deny it is stupid. You're not looking at the trend. You're using an obscure way of manipulating the data, and I can't figure out to what end.

I get why Ted denies it. Why are you acting stupid?

Do Right, Be Right. :)

T

Stupid people don't know they're stupid, and they certainly don't realize how obvious it is to others.

Joe Biden Leading Trump In North Carolina: Poll

THG

Tuesday, August 4, 2020 8:52 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

You're not telling me anything I don't know, regarding those numbers.

I don't know what you're trying to argue here.

His numbers are up. Not up to where they were back in March, but they're certainly up from where they were a month to a month and a half ago.

They went down too during the peak of the fake impeachment. Then they went back up again. We're witnessing it going back up again. To deny it is stupid. You're not looking at the trend. You're using an obscure way of manipulating the data, and I can't figure out to what end.

I get why Ted denies it. Why are you acting stupid?

Do Right, Be Right. :)

T

Stupid people don't know they're stupid, and they certainly don't realize how obvious it is to others.

Joe Biden is leading the president 51 to 42 percent in new general election polling from Morning Consult. And, while Trump is leading in South Carolina, the race there is tighter than expected. The panel discusses. Aired on 08/04/2020.

THG

Tuesday, August 4, 2020 9:00 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

You're not telling me anything I don't know, regarding those numbers.

I don't know what you're trying to argue here.

His numbers are up. Not up to where they were back in March, but they're certainly up from where they were a month to a month and a half ago.

They went down too during the peak of the fake impeachment. Then they went back up again. We're witnessing it going back up again. To deny it is stupid. You're not looking at the trend. You're using an obscure way of manipulating the data, and I can't figure out to what end.

I get why Ted denies it. Why are you acting stupid?

Do Right, Be Right. :)

T

Stupid people don't know they're stupid, and they certainly don't realize how obvious it is to others.

NBC News National Political Correspondent Steve Kornacki breaks down the 2020 general election poll average across states as Joe Biden continues to maintain lead over Donald Trump. Aired on 7/24/2020.

Road To 270: A Look At The 2020 General Election Poll Average

6IXSTRINGJACK

Tuesday, August 4, 2020 9:48 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by 1KIKI:
Quote:
His numbers are up.
Not according to YOUR metric - that one must look ONLY at within-poll results.

Yeah. They are. Math better.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

THG

Tuesday, August 4, 2020 9:59 PM

Jacks sweating bullets so he is grasping at anything that can help him continue to believe Trump will win. Even a one-point gain in a poll showing Trump losing by 11 points.

tick tock Jack

T

Stupid people don't know they're stupid, and they certainly don't realize how obvious it is to others.

6IXSTRINGJACK

Tuesday, August 4, 2020 10:01 PM

Hey Ted...

If mail-in ballots don't steal the election, maybe you should try to make sure that this happens before 2024?

Do Right, Be Right. :)

THG

Tuesday, August 4, 2020 10:36 PM

Yep, Jacks upset. As evidenced by his huge post of Clintons polls from 4 years ago. Hey dummy, every time you bring up Clinton, you only reinforce that what is currently happening is terrible for Trump. If it weren't you would be posting that instead. So, I see your rant which is riveted in the past. And I raise you Trumps current polls showing he is being destroyed.

Let’s try saying it a different way Jack. Question, why post shit from 4 years ago? Answer, because there is nothing good to post regarding how Trump is doing today. And he knows it, and he's shiting himself thinking about whats going to happen to him when he loses.

tick tock

T

Stupid people don't know they're stupid, and they certainly don't realize how obvious it is to others.

6IXSTRINGJACK

Tuesday, August 4, 2020 11:45 PM

There is plenty good to post today. You just don't want to hear it.

I'm not worried, buddy.

I can't wait until election night.

You're boy Joey better do whatever he can to keep the debates from happening, because it's going to be a slaughter.

Have a nice day.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

6IXSTRINGJACK

Tuesday, August 4, 2020 11:58 PM

Whoopsie.

THG

Wednesday, August 5, 2020 12:54 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

There is plenty good to post today. You just don't want to hear it.

I'm not worried, buddy.

I can't wait until election night.

You're boy Joey better do whatever he can to keep the debates from happening, because it's going to be a slaughter.

Have a nice day.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

It's your not you're boy Joe. Your departure from the current state of affairs concerning Trump, can only be taken as a sign there is no good news out there. Also, I haven't seen any.

As for any debates he may have with Biden, remember, Biden will be dealing in facts and Trump in lies.

So, because of his lying and incompetence. Every time Trump has opened his mouth in the past few months, his polls go down. I see no way the debates benefit him.

tick tock

T

Stupid people don't know they're stupid, and they certainly don't realize how obvious it is to others.

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Wednesday, August 5, 2020 1:08 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
I'll mention a minor technical error, based on how you composed your words. I noticed this when I first saw your post, when it was much smaller. I have not re-read the post after editing and expansion.

That 11.1% in the table you show, it is not an average of all of the other percentages in that column, which your sentences might imply. That would be an unweighted averaging. But that figure is from the gross total of all Approval responses from all of the polls, divided by the gross total of all of the responses from all of the polls. So an inaccurate/biased poll with more participants has greater weight than an accurate/unbiased poll with smaller sampling.

I might find something else when I check out the whole post.
I'm going to need you to be more specific, and how you would rather I word it.

The 11.1 is the SPREAD. Because the polls show a higher DISAPPROVE than APPROVE for Trump, the lower the SPREAD the better. The inverse would be true if his APPROVE were higher than his DISAPPROVE.

Just like the APPROVE and DISAPPROVE columns, the SPREAD is calculated by adding up all of the SPREAD(s) from the polls in the Aggregate, then dividing by how many polls were in the Aggregate.

ie: -6 +2 -18 -9 -11 -12 -12 -17 -12 -9 -18 = 122

122 / 11 (polls in the aggregate) = 11.0909090909 (to inifinity) or 11.1

On a side note, it seems that Ted is still oblivious to the point of this thread.

The polls are biased bullshit today, just as they were in 2016. Perhaps more so.

But that doesn't mean that they're still not useful when comparing them to themselves to find how things are TRENDING.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

Hey, man, I screwed up, and also misspoke. Partly from being too sleepy on Friday night, and partly from not posting until Monday, after reading Friday.

You are correct about the spread. I knew that and understood it, but by the time I posted yesterday had forgotten which column was which and I incorrectly described the meanings.

Turns out that 11.1% really is unweighted, and is merely an average of the other figures in that column.
While looking at that, noticed that Politico was listed as a polling source, and also WaPo. How did they miss the DNC poll? Why skip the Soros poll as well?
With WaPo having the smallest sampling (probably only folk in CA and NYC) as well as the greatest outlier, it has equal weight as the poll with 3.5 times the sample.

Sorry to have wasted your time.

6IXSTRINGJACK

Wednesday, August 5, 2020 3:11 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
I'll mention a minor technical error, based on how you composed your words. I noticed this when I first saw your post, when it was much smaller. I have not re-read the post after editing and expansion.

That 11.1% in the table you show, it is not an average of all of the other percentages in that column, which your sentences might imply. That would be an unweighted averaging. But that figure is from the gross total of all Approval responses from all of the polls, divided by the gross total of all of the responses from all of the polls. So an inaccurate/biased poll with more participants has greater weight than an accurate/unbiased poll with smaller sampling.

I might find something else when I check out the whole post.
I'm going to need you to be more specific, and how you would rather I word it.

The 11.1 is the SPREAD. Because the polls show a higher DISAPPROVE than APPROVE for Trump, the lower the SPREAD the better. The inverse would be true if his APPROVE were higher than his DISAPPROVE.

Just like the APPROVE and DISAPPROVE columns, the SPREAD is calculated by adding up all of the SPREAD(s) from the polls in the Aggregate, then dividing by how many polls were in the Aggregate.

ie: -6 +2 -18 -9 -11 -12 -12 -17 -12 -9 -18 = 122

122 / 11 (polls in the aggregate) = 11.0909090909 (to inifinity) or 11.1

On a side note, it seems that Ted is still oblivious to the point of this thread.

The polls are biased bullshit today, just as they were in 2016. Perhaps more so.

But that doesn't mean that they're still not useful when comparing them to themselves to find how things are TRENDING.

Do Right, Be Right. :)
Hey, man, I screwed up, and also misspoke. Partly from being too sleepy on Friday night, and partly from not posting until Monday, after reading Friday.

You are correct about the spread. I knew that and understood it, but by the time I posted yesterday had forgotten which column was which and I incorrectly described the meanings.

Turns out that 11.1% really is unweighted, and is merely an average of the other figures in that column.
While looking at that, noticed that Politico was listed as a polling source, and also WaPo. How did they miss the DNC poll? Why skip the Soros poll as well?
With WaPo having the smallest sampling (probably only folk in CA and NYC) as well as the greatest outlier, it has equal weight as the poll with 3.5 times the sample.

Sorry to have wasted your time.

No worries man. Everybody else has been wasting my time in here too.

At least you know how polling and aggregates work.

Nice talking with somebody who's got a triple digit IQ in here for once.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

6IXSTRINGJACK

Wednesday, August 5, 2020 3:13 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by THG:
Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

There is plenty good to post today. You just don't want to hear it.

I'm not worried, buddy.

I can't wait until election night.

You're boy Joey better do whatever he can to keep the debates from happening, because it's going to be a slaughter.

Have a nice day.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

It's your not you're boy Joe.

I know it's not my boy Joe.

It's your boy Joey.

He's going to get annihilated in the debates. It will be the funniest comedy show since Dave Chappelle's Sticks and Stones.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

THG

Sunday, August 16, 2020 8:55 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

You're not telling me anything I don't know, regarding those numbers.

I don't know what you're trying to argue here.

Why are you acting stupid?

Do Right, Be Right. :)

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

That Trumps numbers are still the same; dismal. And, that you know it or you'd still be posting the polls in this thread. You started this thread on 7/31. It is now 8/16, and Trumps numbers have not improved in the least.

Again, Trumps numbers have not improved at all.

Times a ticking...

T

Stupid people don't know they're stupid, and they certainly don't realize how obvious it is to others.

6IXSTRINGJACK

Sunday, August 16, 2020 10:07 PM

The numbers are fine.

You'll see.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

THG

Monday, August 17, 2020 12:02 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
The numbers are fine.

You'll see.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

Really, show us.

T

Stupid people don't know they're stupid, and they certainly don't realize how obvious it is to others.

1KIKI

Monday, August 17, 2020 12:04 AM

If this was just a vote about weighing Trump against a set of standards, that would be one scenario.

But, in most people's minds, this is a CHOICE between TRUMP/(Pence) and Biden/(HARRIS), which is a completely different scenario.

This is a bit like 2016, when Trump was being weighed against Hillary. Hillary's 'basket of deplorables' (and the DNC's identity politics platform) made Trump look kinda' good.

THG

Monday, August 17, 2020 12:11 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by 1KIKI:

this was just a vote about weighing Trump against a set of standards, that would be one scenario.

But, in most people's minds, this is a CHOICE between TRUMP/(Pence) and Biden/(HARRIS), which is a completely different scenario.

This is a bit like 2016, when Trump was being weighed against Hillary. Hillary's 'basket of deplorables' (and the DNC's identity politics platform) made Trump look kinda' good.

Moron, this is about before Trump became president and now. Look at the polls. He's getting destroyed. Destroyed based on his record. I'll add, you said he was the best person for the job in 2016. Your creds are shit. Trumps fucked up and broke everything he has touched.

T

Stupid people don't know they're stupid, and they certainly don't realize how obvious it is to others.

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Tuesday, August 18, 2020 3:22 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
The numbers are fine.

You'll see.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

You just don't seem to understand. You must have failed Libtard Maths.

I had inferred that this thread was a tutorial about how the polling works, the trends and such. Yoou seem to think thatMaths remain the same from one day to the next.

But Libtards understand what you do not. Although 2 + 2 was 3 the other day, by now 2+2 is 5 - and Libtards are hoping that by November 2 + 2 will be at least 9.

Enroll yourself in some re-education Camp and learn up on some Libtard Maths.

REAVERFAN

Tuesday, August 18, 2020 3:50 AM

Ask yourself a question: Are you better off now than you were 4 years ago?

I am, but the overwhelming majority will tell you no. Trump's fucked.

However, I think all the chicanery going on with the post office along with all the other tricks Republicans constantly use to steal elections means it will be close.

6IXSTRINGJACK

Tuesday, August 18, 2020 7:19 AM

I'm far better off than I was 4 years ago. But that's 99% me and wouldn't be any different right now if Hillary had won.

My Trump fandom is due to my wanting everybody else in the country to be better off.

That means you too. It's not your fault that you're stupid. You're still a citizen.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

1KIKI

Tuesday, August 18, 2020 9:43 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by THG:
Moron, this is about before Trump became president and now. Look at the polls. He's getting destroyed. Destroyed based on his record.

Well, if you live by the polls then you die by them.

CNN Poll of Polls: Biden's lead is narrowing
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/17/politics/biden-trump-poll-of-polls-
august-election/index.html

That's backed up by my scan of nearly a dozen betting sites and other polls.

Biden was a poor choice. Adding Harris on top was an extra helping of a poor choice.

Quote:
I'll add, you said he was the best person for the job in 2016. Your creds are shit.

NOPE. I never, ever, not once, posted that Trump was the best person for the job. Let me repeat: not ever.

I posted that I was going to vote for NOT THE DEMOCRAT. That covers a lot of people on the ballot who were NOT THE DEMOCRAT.

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Wednesday, August 19, 2020 2:57 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by 1KIKI:
Quote:
Originally posted:
Moron, this is about before Trump became president and now. Look at the polls. He's getting destroyed. Destroyed based on his record.
Well, if you live by the polls then you die by them.

CNN Poll of Polls: Biden's lead is narrowing
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/17/politics/biden-trump-poll-of-polls-
august-election/index.html

That's backed up by my scan of nearly a dozen betting sites and other polls.

Biden was a poor choice. Adding Harris on top was an extra helping of a poor choice.
Quote:
I'll add, you said he was the best person for the job in 2016. Your creds are shit.
NOPE. I never, ever, not once, posted that Trump was the best person for the job. Let me repeat: not ever.

I posted that I was going to vote for NOT THE DEMOCRAT. That covers a lot of people on the ballot who were NOT THE DEMOCRAT.

Butbutbutbutbutbut if you voted for Not The Democrap and Trump Voters also did not vote for The Democrap, then that's the same as you voting for Trump.
snigger.

REAVERFAN

Monday, August 24, 2020 11:57 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

Tuesday, August 25, 2020 12:21 AM

^ Warmongering, NeoCon backed Lincoln Project.

He is leading in Rasmussen, which is an outlier compared to the contemporaries, true.

But it was the only one that was right in 2016, and is likely more reflective of the actual situation again in 2020.

So, you're right. He's not leading in the polls. But the polls are bullshit.

Tracking trending from bullshit polls is useful, however, and the point of this thread. And it's not looking good for Democrats.

Have a nice day.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Tuesday, August 25, 2020 3:28 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
^ Warmongering, NeoCon backed Lincoln Project.

He is leading in Rasmussen, which is an outlier compared to the contemporaries, true.

But it was the only one that was right in 2016, and is likely more reflective of the actual situation again in 2020.

So, you're right. He's not leading in the polls. But the polls are bullshit.

Tracking trending from bullshit polls is useful, however, and the point of this thread. And it's not looking good for Democrats.

Have a nice day.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

You replied in 24 minutes, but then it looks like he deleted his post, which he/she seems to do a lot lately. Maybe it gets confused about which sockpuppet is intended to post what.

But your statement might more accurately read: He is not leading in the polls that are always wrong. In the poll which has a proven track record of being accurate, he is leading now.

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Tuesday, October 6, 2020 2:06 AM

I heard report that the Zogby poll following the debate and Covid shows Trump 1% higher than he was at the same time 2016.

SECOND

Tuesday, October 6, 2020 2:31 AM

Latest Polls Give Biden 90 Percent Chance of Winning

Biden continues to slowly widen his lead over Trump, which explains much of Trump’s reckless behavior lately. As he gets more and more desperate, I expect him to respond like a cornered animal. The worst is yet to come from him.

https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

6IXSTRINGJACK

Tuesday, October 6, 2020 6:13 AM

No they don't.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

SECOND

Tuesday, October 6, 2020 6:16 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
No they don't.

FiveThirtyEight Employees Scrambling To Jolt Nate Silver Awake After He Traveled Too Far Into Undecided Voter’s Mind

NEW YORK—Panicked FiveThirtyEight employees reportedly scrambled to jolt Nate Silver awake Thursday after the statistician traveled too far into an undecided voter’s mind while collecting data for the 2020 presidential election. “Nate, Nate—if you can hear me, you need to find a way out of this man’s temporal lobe now, because if you go any further into his voting history, you might not make it out alive,” said Senior Computational Journalist Masha Sidorov, who screamed after the incapacitated statistician—attached via electrodes to a 65-year-old independent from West Virginia—began to seize up, shake uncontrollably, and bleed from his nose and ears. “Oh my God, he promised he was just going to do a quick scan for implicit attitudes, but he’s been in there for hours, coming in and out of consciousness to yell either ‘Biden’ or ‘Trump.’ Nate, the further you go, the harder it will be for you to remember how to get out—in less than five minutes, you could become an undecided voter yourself.” At press time, several FiveThirtyEight employees strapped down Geoffrey Skelley, who had offered to go into the undecided voter’s mind and rescue Silver, after the statistician began to repeatedly scream “Jill Stein” and then flatlined.

www.theonion.com/fivethirtyeight-employees-scrambling-to-jolt-nate-sil
ve-1845215650

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

6IXSTRINGJACK

Tuesday, October 6, 2020 7:53 PM

It's funny because if Nate plays his cards right he won't be yesterday's news by blowing two presidential elections in a row. He should probably stay in there a while longer.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

THG

Tuesday, October 6, 2020 7:57 PM

T

Stupid people don't know they're stupid, and they certainly don't realize how obvious it is to others.

Joe Biden is leading the president 57 percent to 41 percent

REAVERFAN

Tuesday, October 6, 2020 7:59 PM

US election polls tracker: who is leading in the swing states?
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/oct/06/us-election-polls-trac
ker-who-is-leading-in-the-swing-states

6IXSTRINGJACK

Tuesday, October 6, 2020 8:07 PM

He's still doing better than he was against Hillary on October 6th in the Top Battlegrounds, despite fact he was just released from the hospital and your claims that he lost the 1st debate.

He's also still doing quite a bit better than he was when this thread was started at the end of July despite this temporary poll hit.

He'll be fine.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

CAPTAINCRUNCH

Tuesday, October 6, 2020 8:23 PM

I have my own, very scientific polling method: I drive around the city to all the different neighborhoods and count the campaign signs. Doesn't matter, rich or not so rich, Biden leads by an 8 to 1 margin. Incredible really. And the number of angry signs, "Flush the White House" "Get rid of the Turd" "ByeDon" etc, also stands out. I have never seen any pres candidate more hated in my city ever, than Trump. I am encouraged by this.

But... drive outside the city, where less "sophisticated," more gullible voters live, and you will see the reverse.

So - toss up.

6IXSTRINGJACK

Tuesday, October 6, 2020 8:24 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by captaincrunch:
I have my own, very scientific polling method: I drive around the city to all the different neighborhoods and count the campaign signs. Doesn't matter, rich or not so rich, Biden leads by an 8 to 1 margin. Incredible really. And the number of angry signs, "Flush the White House" "Get rid of the Turd" "ByeDon" etc, also stands out. I have never seen any pres candidate more hated in my city ever, than Trump. I am encouraged by this.

But... drive outside the city, where less "sophisticated," more gullible voters live, and you will see the reverse.

So - toss up.

Fuck your elitism.

There aren't any campaign signs around here at all. People around here aren't assholes like they are where you live.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

SECOND

Tuesday, October 6, 2020 8:34 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

He'll be fine.

If Trump was as confident as you are, would he be ramping up his attacks on voting? Would he refuse commitment to a peaceful transition of power? He is not confident he will win. What's his worry?

If he is not President, he loses his fortune and his freedom. High officials in other countries end up jailed for tax evasion and graft. Nixon, for an American example, would have if President Ford, Nixon's former V.P., had not pardoned him. Biden won't pardon Trump. Trump is acting like he is afraid of losing all his money and spending a life sentence in prison. He shows that he is afraid. In terms of the statements that Trump is making that undermine democratic elections and the rule of law, we’re kind of off the charts. No other politician is making the kind of incendiary, unsupported statements undermining our election process like Trump has done.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

THG

Tuesday, October 6, 2020 8:34 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Quote:
Originally posted by captaincrunch:

I have my own, very scientific polling method: I drive around the city to all the different neighborhoods and count the campaign signs. Doesn't matter, rich or not so rich, Biden leads by an 8 to 1 margin. Incredible really. And the number of angry signs, "Flush the White House" "Get rid of the Turd" "ByeDon" etc, also stands out. I have never seen any pres candidate more hated in my city ever, than Trump. I am encouraged by this.

But... drive outside the city, where less "sophisticated," more gullible voters live, and you will see the reverse.

So - toss up.

Fuck your elitism.

There aren't any campaign signs around here at all. People around here aren't assholes like they are where you live.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

So tell me G. Do you see anyway after the election for Jack to be seen as anything but a troll? He’s all in when it comes to the hate ticket. All in when it comes to posting bullshit and denying facts. It's as clear as a glass of water who and what he is.

T

Stupid people don't know they're stupid, and they certainly don't realize how obvious it is to others.

6IXSTRINGJACK

Tuesday, October 6, 2020 8:36 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by THG:
So tell me G. Do you see anyway after the election for Jack to be seen as anything but a troll? He’s all in when it comes to the hate ticket. All in when it comes to posting bullshit and denying facts. It's as clear as a glass of water who and what he is.

This statement is only correct in the alternate timeline where you're right and Biden wins in November.

You'll be eating these words, and then we'll see who was dealing with facts and who was dealing in propaganda.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

REAVERFAN

Tuesday, October 6, 2020 9:04 PM

Biden's lead widens to 16 points nationally: survey
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign-polls/519751-bidens-lead-widens-
to-16-points-nationally-survey

6IXSTRINGJACK

Wednesday, October 7, 2020 12:30 AM

I beat you to that by a few hours, Marcos.

Do try to keep up.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

CAPTAINCRUNCH

Wednesday, October 7, 2020 2:19 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Quote:
Originally posted by captaincrunch:
I have my own, very scientific polling method: I drive around the city to all the different neighborhoods and count the campaign signs. Doesn't matter, rich or not so rich, Biden leads by an 8 to 1 margin. Incredible really. And the number of angry signs, "Flush the White House" "Get rid of the Turd" "ByeDon" etc, also stands out. I have never seen any pres candidate more hated in my city ever, than Trump. I am encouraged by this.

But... drive outside the city, where less "sophisticated," more gullible voters live, and you will see the reverse.

So - toss up.

Fuck your elitism.

There aren't any campaign signs around here at all. People around here aren't assholes like they are where you live.

WHOZIT? Is this the stupider 6?

What’s elitist about yard signs? You don’t even have “Trump is my Savior” signs? Weird.

CAPTAINCRUNCH

Wednesday, October 7, 2020 2:29 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by THG:

So tell me G. Do you see anyway after the election for Jack to be seen as anything but a troll? He’s all in when it comes to the hate ticket. All in when it comes to posting bullshit and denying facts. It's as clear as a glass of water who and what he is.

He’s been reduced to a pull string dummy. He has about 6 responses for everything, pull string: “wait until Nov 4th.” Pull string: “Faggot” Pull string: “C*nt” Nothing to say, no discussion, runs from any challenge. As far as I’m concerned Jack has always been a troll, drunk or sober. He’s insulted everyone here except maybe Sig. What he gains by posting here? No idea. Maybe a perverse need to relive his mom’s abuse?

6IXSTRINGJACK

Wednesday, October 7, 2020 2:31 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by CAPTAINCRUNCH:
Quote:
Originally posted by THG:

So tell me G. Do you see anyway after the election for Jack to be seen as anything but a troll? He’s all in when it comes to the hate ticket. All in when it comes to posting bullshit and denying facts. It's as clear as a glass of water who and what he is.

He’s been reduced to a pull string dummy. He has about 6 responses for everything, pull string: “wait until Nov 4th.” Pull string: “Faggot” Pull string: “C*nt” Nothing to say, no discussion, runs from any challenge. As far as I’m concerned Jack has always been a troll, drunk or sober. He’s insulted everyone here except maybe Sig. What he gains by posting here? No idea.

Run from challenges?

What challenges?

I shut you all down constantly, and you scurry away from threads when I do.

Look back at the history of the last few pages of threads. You'll see dozens upon dozens of instances where I shut you mindless fucks up completely, never to be heard from again until somebody necroposts the thread.

When Trump wins, I'm going to lord it over you dipshits with glee.

Then I'll let you kiss my ass and tell me how stupid you are.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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