Electoral College 2020

POSTED BY: JEWELSTAITEFAN
UPDATED: Sunday, July 18, 2021 01:10
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JEWELSTAITEFAN

Monday, February 10, 2020 12:44 AM

It might seem early, but I want to start filling this in and updating it.

From prior cycles, we've seen that a large portion of the picture is already known - most states are not in play.

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Monday, February 10, 2020 1:37 AM

I should probably start with this useful data.

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
In 2012 Obama beat Romney, with only 409,500 votes deciding the race. This means if the right 205,000 voters had changed, Romney would have won. With an estimated Voting Eligible Population of 222,474,000 this means that less than one one-thousandth of the Eligible Voters decided the race, or less than 0.1%. With total vote count of 129,237,000 the percentage was about 0.15% of those who voted.

In 2016, Trump beat Hilliary, with only 54,996 votes (in MI and PA) deciding the race. This means that if the right 27,498 voters had changed, Hilliary would have won. (5,352 in MI and 22,146 in PA).
Quote:

Of course, no state has voted for Democrats in every elections since 1971, but Minnesota has done so for every election after 1972. Even when the most conservative President we've had in modern times was running, every other state voted for Reagan, but not MN. But they only had an 8 percent margin in 2012, meaning that if 4% of their voters had shifted, the state would have gone to Romney. In 2008 they had a margin of 10%.
Hilliary had a 1.51% margin in MN.

Let us review 2016.
Quote:

Consider these groups of states.
Group 1. 102 Electors. 13 States.
TX, SC, AL, OK, UT, KS, MS, NE, ID, WY, ND, SD, AK.
These states have voted Republican in every election since 1979, and the closest margin in 2012 was SC with 10%. Most people can assume they will go to the GOP in 2016. This group had 91 Electors in 1980, but they have embraced progress and Free Enterprise and flourished, expanding their proportional population.

Group 2. 19 Electors.
GA, MT.
These 2 have voted for GOP in each election since 1982 except for 1992. Both can be assumed to go for GOP in 2016, although GA had only an 8% margin in 2012. They had 16 Electors in 1980.

Group 3. 59 Electors.
TN, AZ, MO, LA, KY, AR, WV.
These states have voted for GOP in almost all elections since 1979 except for the Perot years, 1992 & 1996. They also each have a margin in 2012 of 9% or more. They are likely to vote GOP in 2016.

Group 4. 26 Electors.
NC, IN.
These 2 states have voted Right every election since 1979 except 2008. In 2012 IN voted R by a margin of 10%, and 2008 voted D by a margin of 1.0%. NC voted R in 2012 by a margin or 2% and in 2008 voted D by a margin of 0.32%. These would likely vote Republican if there was a decent candidate.

5. 29 Electors.
FL*.
Florida has voted R since 1979 except 1996, 2008, and 2012. The margin in 2012 was 0.9%. This would easily go to Republican if a decent candidate was available. Florida had 17 Electors in 1980.
Groups 1-5 all voted for Trump. 235 Electors. 25 States.
Quote:
6. 40 Electors.
CO*, VA, OH*.
These 3 States usually vote for the winner since 1979, and in 2012 voted Dem by a margin ranging between 3% and 5%. A decent candidate would put these back in the GOP column. Ohio has lost 28% of it's Elector count since 1980.

Group 6: OH maintained it's record of voting for every winner since 1963. The other 2 remained on the Dark Side. Trump 253 EV, 26 States. Hilliary 22 EV, 2 States.
Quote:

Group 7. 57 Electors.
NM*, MN, WI, IA, NV*, PA.
Other than the Reagan/Bush41 years, these states have mostly voted for Dems since then, and in 2012 had margins of between 5% and 10% for Obama. These would likely vote Democrat if there was a decent candidate. This group had 63 Electors in 1980.

Group 7 split: WI, IA, PA went to Trump, the others remained on the Dark Side. Trump 289 EV, 29 States. Hilliary 43 EV, 5 States.
Quote:

Group 8. 31 Electors.
MI, OR, NH*, ME
These states have voted for Democrats since 1990, and had a large margin in 2012, with MI the tightest margin at 10%. These are likely to go to Democrats in 2016. This group had 35 Electors in 1980.

Group 8: MI voted Trump in 2016, the rest stayed on the Dark Side. Trump 305 EV, 30 States.

Quote:

Group 9. 175 Electors. 12 States.
C

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JEWELSTAITEFAN

Monday, February 10, 2020 1:38 AM

So, how this data works moving forward in 2020:

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
In 2012 Obama beat Romney, with only 409,500 votes deciding the race. This means if the right 205,000 voters had changed, Romney would have won. With an estimated Voting Eligible Population of 222,474,000 this means that less than one one-thousandth of the Eligible Voters decided the race, or less than 0.1%. With total vote count of 129,237,000 the percentage was about 0.15% of those who voted.

Of course, no state has voted for Democrats in every elections since 1971, but Minnesota has done so for every election after 1972. Even when the most conservative President we've had in modern times was running, every other state voted for Reagan, but not MN. But they only had an 8 percent margin in 2012, meaning that if 4% of their voters had shifted, the state would have gone to Romney. In 2008 they had a margin of 10%.

Consider these groups of states.
Group 1. 102 Electors.
TX, SC, AL, OK, UT, KS, MS, NE, ID, WY, ND, SD, AK.
These states have voted Republican in every election since 1979, and the closest margin in 2012 was SC with 10%. Most people can assume they will go to the GOP in 2016. This group had 91 Electors in 1980, but they have embraced progress and Free Enterprise and flourished, expanding their proportional population.

TX 9% in 2016
Quote:

Group 2. 19 Electors.
GA, MT.
These 2 have voted for GOP in each election since 1982 except for 1992. Both can be assumed to go for GOP in 2016, although GA had only an 8% margin in 2012. They had 16 Electors in 1980.
GA 5.1% in 2016
Quote:

Group 3. 59 Electors.
TN, AZ, MO, LA, KY, AR, WV.
These states have voted for GOP in almost all elections since 1979 except for the Perot years, 1992 & 1996. They also each have a margin in 2012 of 9% or more. They are likely to vote GOP in 2016.

Group 4. 26 Electors.
NC, IN.
These 2 states have voted Right every election since 1979 except 2008. In 2012 IN voted R by a margin of 10%, and 2008 voted D by a margin of 1.0%. NC voted R in 2012 by a margin or 2% and in 2008 voted D by a margin of 0.32%. These would likely vote Republican if there was a decent candidate.

5. 29 Electors.
FL*.
Florida has voted R since 1979 except 1996, 2008, and 2012. The margin in 2012 was 0.9%. This would easily go to Republican if a decent candidate was available. Florida had 17 Electors in 1980.
FL 1.2% in 2016

Groups 1-5: 235 Electors, 25 States.

I'll insert a Group 10 here - the States which went to Trump but trended Dem.

OH - 18 EV. 8.1% to Trump.
WI - 10 EV. 0.77%
IA - 6 EV. 9.4%
PA - 20 EV 0.71%
MI - 16 EV 0.22%

If Trump retains OH and IA, that adds up to 259 Electors.
Another 11 Electoral Votes wins him another 4 years.
Quote:

6. 40 22 Electors.
CO*, VA, ~~OH*.~~
These 3 States usually vote for the winner since 1979, and in 2012 voted Dem by a margin ranging between 3% and 5%. A decent candidate would put these back in the GOP column. Ohio has lost 28% of it's Elector count since 1980.
CO 4.9%, VA 5.3%
Quote:

Group 7. 57 21 Electors.
NM*, MN, ~~WI, IA,~~ NV*, ~~PA.~~
Other than the Reagan/Bush41 years, these states have mostly voted for Dems since then, and in 2012 had margins of between 5% and 10% for Obama. These would likely vote Democrat if there was a decent candidate. This group had 63 Electors in 1980.
NM 8.2%, MN 1.51%, NV 2.

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Friday, February 14, 2020 6:36 AM

We don't yet know who the Dem candidate will be, but it might not matter.

The states which Trump could most easily (numbers-wise) bring to his side look like NH and MN. That's another 14 EV (4 + 10).
Trump could lose WI, MI, PA and still pull off a win.

2020 is a Census year. Census is 1 April. Results are due to Congress by end-of-year, usually are ready in December. The House is in charge of the Apportionment Formula, and this is applied to the House races in 2022.
So the Census will not have effect on the 2020 Elections.

Does this data, so far, make sense to everybody? Or is it confusing?

1KIKI

Friday, February 14, 2020 6:48 AM

You have far more energy to write this than I have to read it at the moment! (I'm still wheezing, coughing, and dragging anchor from when I had the flu 5 weeks ago.)

I was going to do a slightly different calculation, not about actual elections but about the electoral college in general, which was to compare House representation v electors, just to see which states are over-represented or underrepresented in terms of electors, and by how much. It doesn't make a difference to what I think, btw, it's just a matter of curiosity.

I think the electoral college is fine and basically democratic. What's NOT fine imo is the 'winner-take-all' assignment of votes for all but 2 states. That strikes me as deeply undemocratic.

I hope to get back to your posts in a bit.

6IXSTRINGJACK

Friday, February 14, 2020 7:13 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
We don't yet know who the Dem candidate will be, but it might not matter.

The states which Trump could most easily (numbers-wise) bring to his side look like NH and MN. That's another 14 EV (4 + 10).
Trump could lose WI, MI, PA and still pull off a win.

2020 is a Census year. Census is 1 April. Results are due to Congress by end-of-year, usually are ready in December. The House is in charge of the Apportionment Formula, and this is applied to the House races in 2022.
So the Census will not have effect on the 2020 Elections.

Does this data, so far, make sense to everybody? Or is it confusing?

I put NH as a strong favorite for Trump to flip in the predictions thread already. I haven't considered MN yet. I'll have to look into that one.

Should probably mention that Virginia is also in play because of Democrats seemingly losing their mind there and trying to destroy the 2nd Amendment.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Saturday, February 15, 2020 1:32 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by 1KIKI:
You have far more energy to write this than I have to read it at the moment! (I'm still wheezing, coughing, and dragging anchor from when I had the flu 5 weeks ago.)

I was going to do a slightly different calculation, not about actual elections but about the electoral college in general, which was to compare House representation v electors, just to see which states are over-represented or underrepresented in terms of electors, and by how much. It doesn't make a difference to what I think, btw, it's just a matter of curiosity.

I think the electoral college is fine and basically democratic. What's NOT fine imo is the 'winner-take-all' assignment of votes for all but 2 states. That strikes me as deeply undemocratic.

I hope to get back to your posts in a bit.

I don't think I understand what you mean.

You say House, and also Electors. Not sure of your comparison.
The House has Representatives, which are apportioned based upon population - the more populous States have more Representatives, the least populous States only have 1. The number of Electors for a State are determined by adding up the number of Congresspersons for that State - 2 Senators plus the number of Representatives. Except D.C., which has 3 Electors.

If you can explain what you are curious about, I might already have a post which covers the subject.
Over-represented or under-represented in what way? As in 2010, or as in 2020?

USA is a Republic. A federation of States. Most States have their Electors vote as a block, all for the candidate who carried the State. Two States have chosen to diminish the Republic form of Representative Government by pandering to small but densely concentrated cities, and split the vote in order to avoid the Great Compromise which was made in what is known as.....The Great Compromise.

Is the thread title confusing? Should it say something else? Or more?

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Sunday, February 16, 2020 2:33 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
We don't yet know who the Dem candidate will be, but it might not matter.

The states which Trump could most easily (numbers-wise) bring to his side look like NH and MN. That's another 14 EV (4 + 10).
Trump could lose WI, MI, PA and still pull off a win.

2020 is a Census year. Census is 1 April. Results are due to Congress by end-of-year, usually are ready in December. The House is in charge of the Apportionment Formula, and this is applied to the House races in 2022.
So the Census will not have effect on the 2020 Elections.

Does this data, so far, make sense to everybody? Or is it confusing?
I put NH as a strong favorite for Trump to flip in the predictions thread already. I haven't considered MN yet. I'll have to look into that one.

Should probably mention that Virginia is also in play because of Democrats seemingly losing their mind there and trying to destroy the 2nd Amendment.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

I'm not betting on VA flipping. Or being a critical State for Trump. That's the D.C. suburbs. Swamp creatures and DEEP STATE galore.

6IXSTRINGJACK

Sunday, February 16, 2020 3:20 AM

It's definitely not a critical state for Trump. I think it's important that Trump win both the popular vote and decimate the Democrats in the Electoral College as well this time though. Democrats need to learn a lesson and stop doubling down on stupid and blaming everybody else for how terrible they've become.

Virginia is easily in play. Moody's prediction models show Trump taking Virginia even if voter turnout is average. The only model that shows Trump losing Virginia is if voter turnout is "historical maximum"

If you've been paying any attention to the Democrats now, that is an extremely unlikely scenario. How many "X Candidate or Bust" comments and hashtags are out there now? One for every candidate.

I do believe we're on the verge of witnessing a historical collapse of a political party in the US.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

1KIKI

Sunday, February 16, 2020 3:25 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
I don't think I understand what you mean.

Oh, my sideline interest was simply how much does the addition of 2 senators to each state for total electors change the calculus from proportional to population, with the House of Representatives being the base numbers for proportional-to-population to not-proportional.

AFAIK each state gets to determine how they run their elections and apportion the votes, as long as they meet minimum standards. But perhaps you know more about that.

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Monday, February 17, 2020 12:35 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by 1KIKI:
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
I don't think I understand what you mean.
Oh, my sideline interest was simply how much does the addition of 2 senators to each state for total electors change the calculus from proportional to population, with the House of Representatives being the base numbers for proportional-to-population to not-proportional.

I am still not certain I understand your focus of curiosity.

As you surely know, the number of Electors for a State is the number of members representativing it has in both chambers of Congress.

As a Republic, a Federation of States, the simplest method of tallying Election results is to count the total number of these States forming The Republic which a candidate won, and the greater total is the winner. For instance, Trump won 30 States of The Republic, and Hilliary garnered 20 States - so Trump was the winner.

I am imagining a few possibilities.

1. I don' think your are talking about the population shift in the past 9 years, since the last Apportionment of Representatives. Therefore, you must be talking about how the apportionment of Electors would be done based upon the 2010 Census.

2. Perhaps you are saying that if we ignore the Republic Federation of States and the Great Compromise, and switch to a Federation of Large Cities, then the Apportionment of Electors could be based on a common pool of 538 Electors. In other words, while the Representatives for the House are apportioned for 435 Representatives, the Electors would follow the same apportionment formula applied to all 538 Electors.

Is that what you are talking about?
Or something else?

If I had a table for what you are curious about, would you want that posted in this thread, or another?

6IXSTRINGJACK

Monday, February 17, 2020 2:26 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
We don't yet know who the Dem candidate will be, but it might not matter.

The states which Trump could most easily (numbers-wise) bring to his side look like NH and MN. That's another 14 EV (4 + 10).
Trump could lose WI, MI, PA and still pull off a win.

2020 is a Census year. Census is 1 April. Results are due to Congress by end-of-year, usually are ready in December. The House is in charge of the Apportionment Formula, and this is applied to the House races in 2022.
So the Census will not have effect on the 2020 Elections.

Does this data, so far, make sense to everybody? Or is it confusing?
I put NH as a strong favorite for Trump to flip in the predictions thread already. I haven't considered MN yet. I'll have to look into that one.

Should probably mention that Virginia is also in play because of Democrats seemingly losing their mind there and trying to destroy the 2nd Amendment.

Do Right, Be Right. :)
I'm not betting on VA flipping. Or being a critical State for Trump. That's the D.C. suburbs. Swamp creatures and DEEP STATE galore.

Check this very, very, VERY left-leaning article and what they have to say about Virginia. It's mentioned once or twice earlier in the article, but the main point is found where the good stuff in left-leaning articles always is found... in the second to last paragraph.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/06/the-states-trump-might-plausib
ly-aim-to-flip-in-2020.html

Quote:
Unfortunately for the president, though, his current approval numbers are terrible in Minnesota (40/56) and New Hampshire (39/58). He’s doing a bit better, though hardly well, in Nevada (42/53) and Maine (44/53). Of all the potential target states, the one in which he’s doing best in terms of current popularity is Virginia, where he’s at 45/51. His campaign might actually target Virginia, since it’s pretty convenient to the White House.

And this article was written 6 months before Senator Marsden called 2nd Amendment supporters "little kids" and then rather than apologizing he came out and doubled down on it and called them "mentally ill".

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/democrat-says-second-amendment
-supporters-in-virginia-have-mental-issues

Quote:
Marsden supports red flag laws that allow courts the ability to seize guns from citizens temporarily if someone believes they are a danger to themselves or others.

"What people are upset with, and I can absolutely see their point of view, is that you have your guns removed from you, and then you have to go through the court process, spend money for a lawyer, to prove your innocence in order to get your rightfully owned guns back from the government," said Walter. "It's a guilty-before-innocent law."

He's not just being insulting by saying that. The laws he proposes will allow the government to enter your home in Virginia and take your guns if somebody believes you're a danger to yourself or others.

Ever heard of Twitter? Ask Sandmann what happens on Twitter.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

1KIKI

Monday, February 17, 2020 2:47 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
I am still not certain I understand your focus of curiosity.

A LOT of people were whining about the electoral college ... as if it wasn't in the Constitution and should just be ignored ... I digress ... I'm just curious how much of a difference in per-vote weight it makes, compared to a population-proportional vote. It's just a matter of curiosity. But I actually agree with the electoral college. Whatever its original intent, I believe it keeps cities from running the entire country. Having a strictly popular-vote election could end up as a form of legislated slavery, serving city dwellers. Everyone needs to have their voice heard. Even in so-called fly-over country. Even the so-called basket of deplorables.

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Monday, February 17, 2020 2:54 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by 1KIKI:
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
I am still not certain I understand your focus of curiosity.
A LOT of people were whining about the electoral college ... as if it wasn't in the Constitution and should just be ignored ... I digress ... I'm just curious how much of a difference in per-vote weight it makes, compared to a population-proportional vote. It's just a matter of curiosity. But I actually agree with the electoral college. Whatever its original intent, I believe it keeps cities from running the entire country. Having a strictly popular-vote election could end up as a form of legislated slavery, serving city dwellers. Everyone needs to have their voice heard. Even in so-called fly-over country. Even the so-called basket of deplorables.

So, does that mean my #2?

1KIKI

Monday, February 17, 2020 3:05 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
So, does that mean my #2?

Almost, if I understand your formulation. My calculation would use the House of Representatives as the basis for proportional apportionment, including the exceptions already made for states that would mathematically have less than 1 representative by strictly mathematical proportionality, that get a minimum of 1 representative no matter what the mathematical calculation is.

But I'm not arguing for it, just to be clear.

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Wednesday, February 19, 2020 4:03 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by 1KIKI:
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
So, does that mean my #2?
Almost, if I understand your formulation. My calculation would use the House of Representatives as the basis for proportional apportionment, including the exceptions already made for states that would mathematically have less than 1 representative by strictly mathematical proportionality, that get a minimum of 1 representative no matter what the mathematical calculation is.

But I'm not arguing for it, just to be clear.

Try this thread:

http://fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=18&tid=63508&mid=10939
59#1093959

Is that what you are looking for?

1KIKI

Wednesday, February 19, 2020 5:08 AM

Since I don't know what the 'Federation of Large Cities' is, I can't answer that.

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Thursday, February 20, 2020 3:20 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by 1KIKI:
Since I don't know what the 'Federation of Large Cities' is, I can't answer that.

Do you prefer 'Federation of Concentrated Population Centers' or Large Urban Centers?

Was the description confusing?

1KIKI

Thursday, February 20, 2020 4:20 AM

I wonder about the specifics and also the intended use. How large does something need to be to counted? Do you mean total metropolitan (of or constituting a large city or urbanized area, including adjacent suburbs and towns) population, or urban centers only? As a category, how does this lump together such diverse places as Los Angeles, Miami, Houston, and New York into something meaningful?

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Friday, February 21, 2020 1:57 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by 1KIKI:
I wonder about the specifics and also the intended use. How large does something need to be to counted? Do you mean total metropolitan (of or constituting a large city or urbanized area, including adjacent suburbs and towns) population, or urban centers only? As a category, how does this lump together such diverse places as Los Angeles, Miami, Houston, and New York into something meaningful?

I have moved these questions to the other thread, where they belong.

This thread can get back on track.

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Tuesday, July 21, 2020 4:11 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
We don't yet know who the Dem candidate will be, but it might not matter.

The states which Trump could most easily (numbers-wise) bring to his side look like NH and MN. That's another 14 EV (4 + 10).
Trump could lose WI, MI, PA and still pull off a win.

2020 is a Census year. Census is 1 April. Results are due to Congress by end-of-year, usually are ready in December. The House is in charge of the Apportionment Formula, and this is applied to the House races in 2022.
So the Census will not have effect on the 2020 Elections.

Does this data, so far, make sense to everybody? Or is it confusing?

6IXSTRINGJACK

Tuesday, July 21, 2020 7:59 AM

450+ Electoral votes for Trump.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

1KIKI

Tuesday, July 21, 2020 8:01 AM

Monday, July 20, 2020 9:59 PM
Electoral College 2020

Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
450+ Electoral votes for Trump.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

copied to predictions thread
http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=18&tid=51008&p=16

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Thursday, July 23, 2020 1:23 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
450+ Electoral votes for Trump.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

Which States?

CA, NY, IL, NJ, WA, MA, MD?

Where does Obiden get only 88 EV?

55 + 28 + 20 + 14 + 12 + 11 + 10 = 151.

6IXSTRINGJACK

Thursday, July 23, 2020 6:38 AM

Marcos and his ultra-uber-left wing idiots keep their shit up, they're going to make California turn.

525 already happened once in my lifetime, and you don't have to go back much further for 520.

Legacy Media is going to pretend like there isn't a hidden Trump vote, when all signs point to a huge hidden Trump vote.

Nobody wants to wear any Trump clothes or put a Trump bumper sticker on their car when they know the only thing they're doing is asking for being attacked if they go out in public with them.

And that's the best case scenario. Unlike 1984 and 1972, everybody has a cell phone camera. Get in the middle of some bullshit because you walked out of your house wearing a MAGA hat and 20 minutes later you're on YouTube and CNN is playing it on Maddow's show and Marcos and his buddies are looking to dox you on Twitter so they can get you fired and ruin your life.

Nah... Keep that shit on the down low.

If you live in a Democrat ran shithole, walk your happy ass in the polling station wearing your Biden button and carrying a soy latte. Democrats are stupid. They won't even know that you voted Trump.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Tuesday, August 11, 2020 5:11 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
So, how this data works moving forward in 2020:
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
In 2012 Obama beat Romney, with only 409,500 votes deciding the race. This means if the right 205,000 voters had changed, Romney would have won. With an estimated Voting Eligible Population of 222,474,000 this means that less than one one-thousandth of the Eligible Voters decided the race, or less than 0.1%. With total vote count of 129,237,000 the percentage was about 0.15% of those who voted.

Of course, no state has voted for Democrats in every elections since 1971, but Minnesota has done so for every election after 1972. Even when the most conservative President we've had in modern times was running, every other state voted for Reagan, but not MN. But they only had an 8 percent margin in 2012, meaning that if 4% of their voters had shifted, the state would have gone to Romney. In 2008 they had a margin of 10%.

Consider these groups of states.
Group 1. 102 Electors.
TX, SC, AL, OK, UT, KS, MS, NE, ID, WY, ND, SD, AK.
These states have voted Republican in every election since 1979, and the closest margin in 2012 was SC with 10%. Most people can assume they will go to the GOP in 2016. This group had 91 Electors in 1980, but they have embraced progress and Free Enterprise and flourished, expanding their proportional population.
TX 9% in 2016
Quote:

Group 2. 19 Electors.
GA, MT.
These 2 have voted for GOP in each election since 1982 except for 1992. Both can be assumed to go for GOP in 2016, although GA had only an 8% margin in 2012. They had 16 Electors in 1980.
GA 5.1% in 2016
Quote:

Group 3. 59 Electors.
TN, AZ, MO, LA, KY, AR, WV.
These states have voted for GOP in almost all elections since 1979 except for the Perot years, 1992 & 1996. They also each have a margin in 2012 of 9% or more. They are likely to vote GOP in 2016.

Group 4. 26 Electors.
NC, IN.
These 2 states have voted Right every election since 1979 except 2008. In 2012 IN voted R by a margin of 10%, and 2008 voted D by a margin of 1.0%. NC voted R in 2012 by a margin or 2% and in 2008 voted D by a margin of 0.32%. These would likely vote Republican if there was a decent candidate.

5. 29 Electors.
FL*.
Florida has voted R since 1979 except 1996, 2008, and 2012. The margin in 2012 was 0.9%. This would easily go to Republican if a decent candidate was available. Florida had 17 Electors in 1980.
FL 1.2% in 2016

Groups 1-5: 235 Electors, 25 States.

I'll insert a Group 10 here - the States which went to Trump but trended Dem.

OH - 18 EV. 8.1% to Trump.
WI - 10 EV. 0.77%
IA - 6 EV. 9.4%
PA - 20 EV 0.71%
MI - 16 EV 0.22%

If Trump retains OH and IA, that adds up to 259 Electors.
Another 11 Electoral Votes wins him another 4 years.
Quote:

6. 40 22 Electors.
CO*, VA, ~~OH*.~~
These 3 States usually vote for the winner since 1979, and in 2012 voted Dem by a margin ranging between 3% and 5%. A decent candidate would put these back in the GOP column. Ohio has lost 28% of it's Elector count since 1980.
CO 4.9%, VA 5.3%
Quote:

Group 7. 57 21 Electors.
NM*, MN, ~~WI, IA,~~ NV*, ~~PA.~~
Other than the Reagan/Bush41 years, these states have mostly voted for Dems since then, and in 2012 had margins of between 5% and 10% for Obama. These would likely vote Democrat if there was a decent candidate. This group had 63 E

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6IXSTRINGJACK

Tuesday, August 11, 2020 8:13 AM

Well remember...

Not too long ago Ted was thrilled to post about how laws were going to be passed to ensure that the Electors voted the way the people voted.

To which I subsequently pointed out that this is a good thing since this did not hurt Hillary at all in 2016 and it was in fact Trump that had two electors from Texas not vote by the will of the public. He should have had 2 more electoral votes in 2016 than were on the final tally.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Friday, September 11, 2020 12:40 AM

About 7 weeks to go for in-person voting. Libtards have already started sending in fraudulent ballots - and will continue for 10-20 weeks.

I'm not tracking all of the polls for the battleground States, but so far the model in the 3rd post of this thread seems to be holding up.

OH, WI, IA, PA, MI are considered the Battleground States. FL could be in danger of being stolen.

OH - 18 EV. 8.1% to Trump.
WI - 10 EV. 0.77%
IA - 6 EV. 9.4%
PA - 20 EV 0.71%
MI - 16 EV 0.22%

Trump needs 35 EV from these, assuming all other states remain the same as 2016.

FL has 29 EV.

OH has went to the winner in every election since 1963.
The second best streak is FL with every election since 1999.
No other state has gone with the winner in every election since 1999.

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Saturday, September 12, 2020 1:20 AM

I saw uselectionatlas.com had a prediction map up - he is always heavily leaning toward the Libtards.

This shows Trump wins with 306 EV.
https://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/evcalc.php

Here is a map of polls:
https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2020/polls.php

It indicates IA is borderline R, AZ borderline D, and GA, NC, OH, TX are tossup.

Also, MN is grouped with MI, WI, PA.

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Wednesday, September 30, 2020 12:15 AM

Following the Floyd riots MN has had such an uptick in poling that Trump campaign is now spending more money there, indicating they could win there.

MN was in my "Group 7" in this thread. Group 7 had 6 States before 2016, and 3 States after 2016.
If MN flips to Trump in 2020, Group 7 would be down to NV and NM. Both of those States have voted for the winner in almost all elections from 1979 until 2015, and then wrong in 2016.

MN only has 9 EV, NM and NV have 6 each. MN had 1.51% MoV in 2016, and NV had 2.4%

MN has voted Dem every Election since 1972 for Nixon.

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Thursday, October 1, 2020 4:17 AM

I think I just heard Cory Lewandowski predict that NV, NH, and MN will vote for Trump.

And also that Obiden will not win any state which went to Trump in 2016.

So, I wonder, with that sort of template in mind, Which States do Democrats or Liberals think Obiden will win?
Which States That Trump won in 2016 will Obiden win in 2020? There must be some, otherwise Trump is automatically the winner.

REAVERFAN

Thursday, October 1, 2020 6:57 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
I think I just heard Cory Lewandowski predict that NV, NH, and MN will vote for Trump.

And we're supposed to care about what that shitstain says, because why? You are so bad at this.

God, you suck!

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Friday, October 2, 2020 1:24 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
And also that Obiden will not win any state which went to Trump in 2016.

So, I wonder, with that sort of template in mind, Which States do Democrats or Liberals think Obiden will win?
Which States That Trump won in 2016 will Obiden win in 2020? There must be some, otherwise Trump is automatically the winner.

Nobody can venture a possibility? No liberals can envision any possible way that Obiden can win?

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Wednesday, October 7, 2020 1:12 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
And also that Obiden will not win any state which went to Trump in 2016.

So, I wonder, with that sort of template in mind, Which States do Democrats or Liberals think Obiden will win?
Which States That Trump won in 2016 will Obiden win in 2020? There must be some, otherwise Trump is automatically the winner.

Not a single Liberal thinks Biden will win?

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Friday, October 9, 2020 3:00 AM

With all the turmoil and Election Theft Dems are promising, I started wondering what the EV amp would look like on Election Night.

I think that all of Groups 1-3, plus IN will be listed for Trump, out of range for Dems, unable to steal. So that would be 191 EV for Trump.

And all of Group 9 plus OR and NM would be for Obiden. For a total of 187 for Obiden.

The other States (without further examination) seem within range of Democrap Election Fraud Theft. Might need to wait for weeks or months for Dems to stuff the ballot boxes.

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Saturday, October 10, 2020 1:50 AM

270 to win is showing that Obiden will get 308 Electoral Votes.

And in the Senate, every Incumbent Dem will be re-elected ecept Jones in AL. All of the Incumbents who are going to lose are GOP.

Not endorsing any of this nonsense, just pointing out how delsional these assclowns are.

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Tuesday, October 13, 2020 2:28 AM

Kevin McCullough predicts 330 for Trump.

[img] https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ej5E5aZWsAE22EX?format=jpg&name=large [/img]

https://dougsanto.com/2020/10/11/2020-election-prediction-from-kevin-m
ccullough/

https://www.investmentwatchblog.com/kevin-mccullough-i-predicted-obama
-in-2006-then-2012-and-i-predicted-within-a-half-state-the-exact-map-of-2016-this-election-isnt-hard/

https://welovetrump.com/2020/10/12/man-who-got-every-election-map-corr
ect-since-2006-releases-his-2020-map/

[img] https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ej5E5aZWsAE22EX?format=jpg&name=large [/img]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ej5E5aZWsAE22EX?format=jpg&name=large

CAPTAINCRUNCH

Tuesday, October 13, 2020 2:41 AM

Wait, you found a web site called welovetrump.com that predicted Trump would win?!? I don’t believe you! Link or it didn’t happen!

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Wednesday, October 14, 2020 12:28 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Kevin McCullough predicts 330 for Trump.

[img] https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ej5E5aZWsAE22EX?format=jpg&name=large [/img]

https://dougsanto.com/2020/10/11/2020-election-prediction-from-kevin-m
ccullough/

https://www.investmentwatchblog.com/kevin-mccullough-i-predicted-obama
-in-2006-then-2012-and-i-predicted-within-a-half-state-the-exact-map-of-2016-this-election-isnt-hard/

https://welovetrump.com/2020/10/12/man-who-got-every-election-map-corr
ect-since-2006-releases-his-2020-map/

His updated maps already show Obiden losing more, in OR, CO, NM.

REAVERFAN

Wednesday, October 14, 2020 1:51 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Friday, October 16, 2020 12:01 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Kevin McCullough predicts 330 for Trump.

[img] https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ej5E5aZWsAE22EX?format=jpg&name=large [/img]

Although it does not get to the 450 Electoral Votes of 6ix's prediction, this Kevin prediction does show the way to 350.

With CA, WA, IL and the usual suspects east, from VA north and east except NH, one CD of ME, going to The Wrong.

To The Right:
That is all of my Groups 1-5: 235 Electors, 25 States.
Plus all of Group 10: +70 = 305 EV, 30 States,
Plus CO from Group 6: +9 = 314 EV, 31 States,
Plus NM, MN, NV from Group 7: +21 = 335 EV, 34 States,
Plus OR, NH, and 1 of ME from Group 8: +12 EV = 347 EV, 36 whole States.

Of the Groups that I identified above, only Group 9 (175 EV) remains unmolested and irrelevantly toward Liberals, other than VA (13 EV) from Group 6 and half of Maine (3 EV, total of 191 EV). I guess this Kevin supports my methodology of Groups.

Anyway, to get to 350 EV, Trump would only need to pick off 3 more EV, like the other half of ME, or VT, DE (unlikely as Obiden's Home State), or RI. I would think ME the most likely of that list. I don't know why NJ is not considered in play. I know 6ix considers VA to be going for Trump, but I am wary of such a Swamp Creature Infested locale.

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Tuesday, October 20, 2020 1:29 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
And also that Obiden will not win any state which went to Trump in 2016.

So, I wonder, with that sort of template in mind, Which States do Democrats or Liberals think Obiden will win?
Which States That Trump won in 2016 will Obiden win in 2020? There must be some, otherwise Trump is automatically the winner.

Not a single Liberal thinks Biden will win?

6IXSTRINGJACK

Tuesday, October 20, 2020 4:21 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by reaverfan:

Apparently Lindsey Graham doesn't know how things work.

No surprise though that a dumbass athlete doesn't either.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Saturday, October 31, 2020 10:32 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
About 7 weeks to go for in-person voting. Libtards have already started sending in fraudulent ballots - and will continue for 10-20 weeks.

I'm not tracking all of the polls for the battleground States, but so far the model in the 3rd post of this thread seems to be holding up.

OH, WI, IA, PA, MI are considered the Battleground States. FL could be in danger of being stolen.

OH - 18 EV. 8.1% to Trump.
WI - 10 EV. 0.77%
IA - 6 EV. 9.4%
PA - 20 EV 0.71%
MI - 16 EV 0.22%

Trump needs 35 EV from these, assuming all other states remain the same as 2016.

FL has 29 EV.

OH has went to the winner in every election since 1963.
The second best streak is FL with every election since 1999.
No other state has gone with the winner in every election since 1999.

With Real News today Trumping Fake News claims that Trump was losing PA and MI in polling, we could add MI and PA in the above quoted scenario.

That is 36 EV, giving Trump 271 Electoral Votes.

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Saturday, October 31, 2020 11:14 PM

I'm gonna post some reference data here, so I don't have to keep looking it up.

DC first had Votes in 1964, and have always voted Dem.

Historical States won, Electoral Votes, R/D-total, and turnout percentage, total votes cast.

2016 30/20-50 304/227-538 55.7% 138.8 million
2012 24/26-50 206/332-538 54.9% 126.8
2008 22/28-50 173/365-538 58.2% 129.4
2004 31/19-50 286/251-538 56.7%
2000 30/20-50 271/266-538 51.2%
1996 19/31-50 159/379-538 49.0%
1992 18/32-50 168/370-538 55.2%
1988 40/10-50 426/111-538 50.2%
1984 49/01-50 525/013-538 53.3%
1980 44/06-50 489/049-538 52.6%
1976 27/23-50 240/297-538 53.5%
1972 49/01-50 520/017-538 55.2%
1968 32/13-50 301/191-538 60.9%
1964 06/44-50 053/486-538 61.9%
1960 26/22-50 219/303-537 62.8%
1956 41/07-48 457/ 73-531 60.8%
1952 39/09-48 442/ 89-531 63.3%
1948 16/28-48 189/303-531 53.0% 4/39 for Dixiecrat.
1944 12/36-48 099/432-531 55.9%
1940 10/38-48 082/449-531 62.5%
1936 02/46-48 008/523-531 61.0%
1932 06/42-48 059/472-531 52.6%
1928 40/08-48 444/087-531 56.9%
1924 35/12-48 382/136-531 48.9%
1920 37/11-48 404/127-531 49.2%
1916 18/30-48 254/277-531 61.6%
1912 02/40-48 008/435-531 58.8% 6/88 for Bull Moose
1908 29/17-46 321/162-483 65.4%
1904 32/13-45 336/140-476 65.2%
1900 28/17-45 292/155-447 73.2%
1896 23/22-45 271/176-447 79.3%
1892 16/23-44 145/277-444 74.7%
1888 20/18-38 233/168-401 79.3%
1884 18/20-38 182/219-401 77.5%
1880 19/19-38 215/155-369 78.0%
1876 21/17-38 185/184-369 81.8%
1872 31/06-37 286/ -0-352 71.3%
1868 26/08-34 214/ 80-294 78.1%
1864 22/03-25 212/ 21-274 73.8%
1860 18/11-33 180/ 72-303 81.2%

6IXSTRINGJACK

Sunday, November 1, 2020 7:07 AM

Do keep in mind that they're shooting themselves in the foot by counting ballots early and then announcing any states where Trump is behind.

There were always going to be far more Republicans voting in person on election day.

Genius idea to sound the horns and let people who don't want Biden to be president know that they need to get their asses off the couch and vote on Tuesday.

Pure genius.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

6IXSTRINGJACK

Sunday, November 1, 2020 11:48 AM

Biden may as well just give up having his 12 person rallies in Iowa.

Trump is destroying him there, and the fake polls are even showing a huge reversal and swing as far in Trump's favor as they were lying were going for Biden just last month.

Expect to see more of this.

You can hardly read a news article now where they don't say something along the lines of "Trump still has a chance".

Sorry, Legacy Media... Trump was always going to win this.

And good luck getting the Left to believe a fucking word you have to say about anything after he does.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

1KIKI

Sunday, November 1, 2020 12:23 PM

"the fake polls are even showing a huge reversal and swing"

That would be no. Only RCP had Biden mostly ahead for a few weeks. The other polls I looked at over the last 2 months showed a mixed picture for Biden at best, or Trump mostly leading.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/presidential-polls/iowa

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/ia/iowa_trump_
vs_biden-6787.html

https://www.270towin.com/2020-polls-biden-trump/iowa/

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/iowa/

6IXSTRINGJACK

Sunday, November 1, 2020 6:42 PM

My bad. You're right.

I read this article on the Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll and mixed up some of the smaller metrics as the entire poll results from last month to this month in general.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/poll-donald-trump-leads-joe-bi
den-by-7-points-among-iowa-voters/ar-BB1azNvo

The most important demographic (independents), has seen a full swing the other way.

September's Poll (Independents): 50% Biden; 38% Trump
October's Poll (Independents): 35% Biden; 49% Trump

Also, women are now polling at 50% to 41% in favor of Biden currently, while they supposedly were 20 points in favor of Biden a month ago.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Tuesday, November 3, 2020 3:44 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Do keep in mind that they're shooting themselves in the foot by counting ballots early and then announcing any states where Trump is behind.

There were always going to be far more Republicans voting in person on election day.

Genius idea to sound the horns and let people who don't want Biden to be president know that they need to get their asses off the couch and vote on Tuesday.

Pure genius.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

Are early voting results being reported?

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Tuesday, November 3, 2020 3:45 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
With all the turmoil and Election Theft Dems are promising, I started wondering what the EV amp would look like on Election Night.

I think that all of Groups 1-3, plus IN will be listed for Trump, out of range for Dems, unable to steal. So that would be 191 EV for Trump.

And all of Group 9 plus OR and NM would be for Obiden. For a total of 187 for Obiden.

The other States (without further examination) seem within range of Democrap Election Fraud Theft. Might need to wait for weeks or months for Dems to stuff the ballot boxes.

6IXSTRINGJACK

Tuesday, November 3, 2020 4:16 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Do keep in mind that they're shooting themselves in the foot by counting ballots early and then announcing any states where Trump is behind.

There were always going to be far more Republicans voting in person on election day.

Genius idea to sound the horns and let people who don't want Biden to be president know that they need to get their asses off the couch and vote on Tuesday.

Pure genius.

Do Right, Be Right. :)
Are early voting results being reported?

Actually, I don't think so.

News headlines would make it sound as if they are, but what they seem to be touting in some of the battleground states is how many people who have voted who are card carrying members of one party or the other, so obviously only in states where that is even applicable.

It actually doesn't mean that this is the way they voted in the General. It just means that they are forced in these states to vote for their particular party in the Primary.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

6IXSTRINGJACK

Tuesday, November 3, 2020 4:17 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
With all the turmoil and Election Theft Dems are promising, I started wondering what the EV amp would look like on Election Night.

I think that all of Groups 1-3, plus IN will be listed for Trump, out of range for Dems, unable to steal. So that would be 191 EV for Trump.

And all of Group 9 plus OR and NM would be for Obiden. For a total of 187 for Obiden.

The other States (without further examination) seem within range of Democrap Election Fraud Theft. Might need to wait for weeks or months for Dems to stuff the ballot boxes.

There's no way that IN is going for Biden. Not even the most biased Leftist journalist would dare make that claim.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Wednesday, November 4, 2020 12:18 AM

Today's headline story:

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/battleground-states-12-states-determine-1001
02737.html

Toss-ups (Arizona, North Carolina, Pennsylvania)

Biden leaners (Michigan, Nevada, Wisconsin)

Trump leaners (Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Ohio)

The longshots (New Hampshire, Texas)

[img] https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/MXDi3i80GKkEccHJAKjPtQ--~A/YXBwaWQ9a
GlnaGxhbmRlcjtzbT0xO3c9ODAw/https://media.zenfs.com/en-us/usa_today_news_641/6b93eedd0d997addb49e0d9547580b3c[/img]

TX as a long shot. uh huh. While NM, OR are not listed.

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Wednesday, November 4, 2020 12:32 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
I'm gonna post some reference data here, so I don't have to keep looking it up.

DC first had Votes in 1964, and have always voted Dem.

Historical States won, Electoral Votes, R/D-total, and turnout percentage, total votes cast.

2016 30/20-50 304/227-538 55.7% 138.8 million
2012 24/26-50 206/332-538 54.9% 126.8
2008 22/28-50 173/365-538 58.2% 129.4
2004 31/19-50 286/251-538 56.7%
2000 30/20-50 271/266-538 51.2%
1996 19/31-50 159/379-538 49.0%
1992 18/32-50 168/370-538 55.2%
1988 40/10-50 426/111-538 50.2%
1984 49/01-50 525/013-538 53.3%
1980 44/06-50 489/049-538 52.6%
1976 27/23-50 240/297-538 53.5%
1972 49/01-50 520/017-538 55.2%
1968 32/13-50 301/191-538 60.9%
1964 06/44-50 053/486-538 61.9%
1960 26/22-50 219/303-537 62.8%
1956 41/07-48 457/ 73-531 60.8%
1952 39/09-48 442/ 89-531 63.3%
1948 16/28-48 189/303-531 53.0% 4/39 for Dixiecrat.
1944 12/36-48 099/432-531 55.9%
1940 10/38-48 082/449-531 62.5%
1936 02/46-48 008/523-531 61.0%
1932 06/42-48 059/472-531 52.6%
1928 40/08-48 444/087-531 56.9%
1924 35/12-48 382/136-531 48.9%
1920 37/11-48 404/127-531 49.2%
1916 18/30-48 254/277-531 61.6%
1912 02/40-48 008/435-531 58.8% 6/88 for Bull Moose
1908 29/17-46 321/162-483 65.4%
1904 32/13-45 336/140-476 65.2%
1900 28/17-45 292/155-447 73.2%
1896 23/22-45 271/176-447 79.3%
1892 16/23-44 145/277-444 74.7%
1888 20/18-38 233/168-401 79.3%
1884 18/20-38 182/219-401 77.5%
1880 19/19-38 215/155-369 78.0%
1876 21/17-38 185/184-369 81.8%
1872 31/06-37 286/ -0-352 71.3%
1868 26/08-34 214/ 80-294 78.1%
1864 22/03-25 212/ 21-274 73.8%
1860 18/11-33 180/ 72-303 81.2%

If there reallly were 93 million valid ballots before Sunday, that is a significant chuck of recent voter turnout.

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Wednesday, November 4, 2020 12:38 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
With all the turmoil and Election Theft Dems are promising, I started wondering what the EV amp would look like on Election Night.

I think that all of Groups 1-3, plus IN will be listed for Trump, out of range for Dems, unable to steal. So that would be 191 EV for Trump.

And all of Group 9 plus OR and NM would be for Obiden. For a total of 187 for Obiden.

The other States (without further examination) seem within range of Democrap Election Fraud Theft. Might need to wait for weeks or months for Dems to stuff the ballot boxes.

Ok, so it seems certain that be the end of tonight, each candidate will have at least 180 Electoral Votes. Unless there really is a landslide.

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Wednesday, November 4, 2020 1:59 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Today's headline story:

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/battleground-states-12-states-determine-1001
02737.html

Toss-ups (Arizona, North Carolina, Pennsylvania)

Biden leaners (Michigan, Nevada, Wisconsin)

Trump leaners (Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Ohio)

The longshots (New Hampshire, Texas)

[img] https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/MXDi3i80GKkEccHJAKjPtQ--~A/YXBwaWQ9a
GlnaGxhbmRlcjtzbT0xO3c9ODAw/https://media.zenfs.com/en-us/usa_today_news_641/6b93eedd0d997addb49e0d9547580b3c[/img]

TX as a long shot. uh huh. While NM, OR are not listed.

AZ is in my Group 3, 11 EV.
NC is Group 4, 15 EV.
PA is Group 10, 20 EV

NV is Group 7, 6 EV.

GA is Group 2, 16 EV.
IA and OH are Group 10, 6 EV and 18 EV.

NH is Group 8, 4 EV.
TX is Group 1, 38 EV.

WI, MI are Group 10, with 10 EV and 16 EV.
FL is the only State in my Group 5, with 29 EV.

Groups 1-5 had 235 EV, 25 States.
Minus TX, GA, AZ, NC, FL is 146 EV, 20 States likely for Trump.

Groups 6-9 had 233 EV, 20 States.
Minus NH, NV is 223 EV, 18 States likely voting for Obiden.

5 States in Group 10,

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Thursday, November 5, 2020 12:24 AM

Looks like, at this point, Biden has racked up 238 EV, and Trump 214 EV. Vote totals are more than 137 million cast.

With NV, GA, NC, PA, WI, MI not yet called.

Last night, for the first time, I heard the phrase "Great Lakes Block"- I wonder if this is a new trend, or just a Trump trend.

So Obiden needs to steal 32 EV from those states, which are all have had Trump Leading during live voting.

REAVERFAN

Thursday, November 5, 2020 12:34 AM

Biden's winning in NV, WI, and MI. That seals it.

He'll probably pick up PA, too.

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Thursday, November 5, 2020 1:27 AM

Seems like Biden may have taken East California (AZ) for 11 EV.
And it's possible Trump flipped NV, with 6 EV.

Sounds like Trump is leading NC, GA, and PA, and they have not been stolen yet by the Libtard criminals.

So Trump could lose WI (10), MI(16), AZ(11) and be at 268 without NV. And NV would give him the win in that scenario.

If only valid real votes are counted in WI with the recanvass, Trump will have WI.

REAVERFAN

Thursday, November 5, 2020 1:33 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Seems like Biden may have taken East California (AZ) for 11 EV.
And it's possible Trump flipped NV, with 6 EV.

Sounds like Trump is leading NC, GA, and PA, and they have not been stolen yet by the Libtard criminals.

So Trump could lose WI (10), MI(16), AZ(11) and be at 268 without NV. And NV would give him the win in that scenario.

If only valid real votes are counted in WI with the recanvass, Trump will have WI.

More lies from the lying piece of shit Russian liar. ^

Biden already won WI and AZ. MI is going his way, as predicted, and he's going to win NV, and probably PA.

Nothing was "stolen," you fucking moron. The only stealing will be if Trump succeeds at the endless suits he'll fraudulently try to file to get his hand-picked cultists in the courts to steal it for him.

If Republicans hadn't blocked efforts in WI/MI/PA to count mail-in votes early, we would have known last night that Biden was going to win MI/WI.

They knew exactly what they were doing, and Trump is now inciting his supporters based on lies, lies, and more lies.

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Friday, November 6, 2020 3:01 AM

Well, it seems clear that Trump won the Election of 2020, including AZ, NV, WI, MI, PA, NC, and GA.

And then, as they promised all year, Libtards stole the Election.

REAVERFAN

Friday, November 6, 2020 4:03 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Well, it seems clear that Trump won the Election of 2020, including AZ, NV, WI, MI, PA, NC, and GA.

And then, as they promised all year, Libtards stole the Election.

How much were you paid to type that, comrade?

Your meltdown is glorious to behold!

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Tuesday, November 10, 2020 4:28 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
I'm gonna post some reference data here, so I don't have to keep looking it up.

DC first had Votes in 1964, and have always voted Dem.

Historical States won, Electoral Votes, R/D-total, and turnout percentage, total votes cast.

2016 30/20-50 304/227-538 55.7% 138.8 million
2012 24/26-50 206/332-538 54.9% 126.8
2008 22/28-50 173/365-538 58.2% 129.4
2004 31/19-50 286/251-538 56.7%
2000 30/20-50 271/266-538 51.2%
1996 19/31-50 159/379-538 49.0%
1992 18/32-50 168/370-538 55.2%
1988 40/10-50 426/111-538 50.2%
1984 49/01-50 525/013-538 53.3%
1980 44/06-50 489/049-538 52.6%
1976 27/23-50 240/297-538 53.5%
1972 49/01-50 520/017-538 55.2%
1968 32/13-50 301/191-538 60.9%
1964 06/44-50 053/486-538 61.9%
1960 26/22-50 219/303-537 62.8%
1956 41/07-48 457/ 73-531 60.8%
1952 39/09-48 442/ 89-531 63.3%
1948 16/28-48 189/303-531 53.0% 4/39 for Dixiecrat.
1944 12/36-48 099/432-531 55.9%
1940 10/38-48 082/449-531 62.5%
1936 02/46-48 008/523-531 61.0%
1932 06/42-48 059/472-531 52.6%
1928 40/08-48 444/087-531 56.9%
1924 35/12-48 382/136-531 48.9%
1920 37/11-48 404/127-531 49.2%
1916 18/30-48 254/277-531 61.6%
1912 02/40-48 008/435-531 58.8% 6/88 for Bull Moose
1908 29/17-46 321/162-483 65.4%
1904 32/13-45 336/140-476 65.2%
1900 28/17-45 292/155-447 73.2%
1896 23/22-45 271/176-447 79.3%
1892 16/23-44 145/277-444 74.7%
1888 20/18-38 233/168-401 79.3%
1884 18/20-38 182/219-401 77.5%
1880 19/19-38 215/155-369 78.0%
1876 21/17-38 185/184-369 81.8%
1872 31/06-37 286/ -0-352 71.3%
1868 26/08-34 214/ 80-294 78.1%
1864 22/03-25 212/ 21-274 73.8%
1860 18/11-33 180/ 72-303 81.2%
If there reallly were 93 million valid ballots before Sunday, that is a significant chuck of recent voter turnout.

That 93 million was a lot more than half of the turnout so far. Maybe Dems can find another 10 million votes for Obiden hidden in more "ballot drop boxes"

Current totals are over 147 million votes counted, whether they were cast of not.

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Wednesday, November 11, 2020 12:19 AM

With such rampant Election Fraud, some places the Libtrds forgot to get enugh Fake Votes beyond the threshold for Recount.

WI does not have automatic Recounts. Recounts can be requested with less than 1% difference in the unofficial results.

GA allows recount if requested, and margin is 0.5% or less.

MI has automatic recount if vote margin is 2,000 votes or less. Requested recounts require alleging fraud, counting errors, and petition specifics.

NV has no automatic recount, and requested recount must pay the costs.

NC has automatic recounts if officials detect error during random-sample review. Forced recount if candidates request, and margin is 10,000 or 0.5%, whichever is less.

PA has automatic recount if Presidential race margin is 0.5% or less, or if "elections officials identify irregularities in the results" - hahahaha.

https://ca.yahoo.com/topics/us-election?cache=clear

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Wednesday, November 11, 2020 12:28 AM

Looks like honest vote counting will have Trump winning AZ. If WI Voting Fraud can be repaired, Trump wins there also.

That leaves Obiden with 269 Electoral Votes (including PA, NV).

With AK, NC, GA for Trump, he gets 269 as well.

Unless Dems can steal GA - They seem to be still voting there, like they said they would be for the whole month.

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Tuesday, November 17, 2020 2:26 AM

https://www.headlineoftheday.com/2020/11/16/hice-gsa-administrator-mus
t-adhere-to-constitution-past-precedent-in-determining-president-elect/

1KIKI

Tuesday, November 17, 2020 4:32 AM

Quote:
"Contrary to complaints issued by House Oversight Democrats, the General Services Administration has followed the letter of the law. State governments certify election results; not the media, and not political parties. When the election is certified, we fully anticipate the GSA to take appropriate action as necessary. Until then, our priority must be on ensuring that this race was a fair and free election with an honest count," said Government Operations Subcommittee Ranking Member Hice.

In the letter, Hice outlines the three situations where there is not an apparent President-Elect. All three situations apply to the 2020 election. The GSA Administrator should determine the President-Elect based on the Constitution and past precedent, which both indicate there is not an apparent President-Elect. Government-funded transition assistance can only be provided after GSA has made a determination.

Pretty much. Until results are certified, they're not legally enforceable.

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Thursday, January 14, 2021 5:43 AM

The memories of how America was will fade soon now, so we should briefly recall how much of a Landslide victory Trump had in the honest Election of 2020.

Trump won PA (20), WI (10), GA (16), MI (16), NV (6), AZ (11), NM (5), VA (13), NE-2, and numerous others - likely including OR (7) and RI (4) - on Nov 3rd, before the Election Theft eroded those Electoral Votes.

An Electoral Landslide of 330 for Trump (or higher) and only 208 (really, less than 200) for Obiden.

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Saturday, July 17, 2021 3:29 AM

Currently, tallies indicate Obiden was given 306 Electoral Votes, claiming 25 states, plus DC and NE-02.
Trump had 232, with 25 states plus ME-02.

It is getting clearer that Trump won AZ(11), and GA(16). That would have made it 279 for Obiden, 259 for Trump.
Already known that Trump won WI(10) and PA(20), and MI(16). Any one of those tallied correctly would have shown Trump as winner. (after Trump won NE-02, days following Election Night it shifted to Obiden's column.

One might think that this might be the biggest News Story in history, but journalism is vehemently trying to prove it is dead.

6IXSTRINGJACK

Saturday, July 17, 2021 3:45 AM

Anybody with half a brain knows that Trump won.

We'll survive until his reelection.

Biden* is a fucking idiot.

--------------------------------------------------

And he who is not sufficiently courageous to defend his soul — don’t let him be proud of his ‘progressive’ views, and don’t let him boast that he is an academician or a people’s artist, a distinguished figure or a general. Let him say to himself: I am a part of the herd and a coward. It’s all the same to me as long as I’m fed and kept warm.

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Sunday, July 18, 2021 1:10 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Currently, tallies indicate Obiden was given 306 Electoral Votes, claiming 25 states, plus DC and NE-02.
Trump had 232, with 25 states plus ME-02.

It is getting clearer that Trump won AZ(11), and GA(16). That would have made it 279 for Obiden, 259 for Trump.
Already known that Trump won WI(10) and PA(20), and MI(16). Any one of those tallied correctly would have shown Trump as winner. (after Trump won NE-02, days following Election Night it shifted to Obiden's column.

One might think that this might be the biggest News Story in history, but journalism is vehemently trying to prove it is dead.

I sort of made a misstatement here, again - technically.

I indicated that the NE-02 Electoral Vote which was fraudulently switched to Obiden would need to be returned. This would have made AZ, GA, WI total of 37 EV reducing Obiden's total to 269 a tie with Trump's 269 - and then the NE-02 would give Trump 270 for the win.

However, with only AZ, GA, WI cutting Obiden down to 269 for a Tie, the House would have then voted to Elect the President, and they would have had 28 GOP votes against 20 Dem Votes, and therefore Obiden was unlikely going to win that one.