Some Covid-19 thoughts
POSTED BY: captaincrunch
UPDATED: Monday, September 29, 2025 18:59
VIEWED: 301579
PAGE 69 of 384
Quote:Well, now we see that SIX can't carry on an intelligent discussion of viruses, so he has to call people names.
KIKI: How this virus moves in a population isn't clear to me.
SIX: Nothing is clear to you.
You're a retard.
-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
#WEARAMASK
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I ran across this at Moon of Alabama
Quote:WHO has been corrupt since the beginning
How Cluster Cases Drive The Covid Pandemic
One of the many mysteries of the Covid-19 pandemic is how the disease actually spreads. We were told to wash hands and about the dangers of droplets in one to one contacts. But newer evidence continues to point in another direction.
There are more and more reports about cases where the infections seems to have spread by aerosol, droplets smaller than 5µm in diameter, instead of by bigger droplets or fomites like surfaces and objects. Lambert Strether has collected reports of cluster cases in restaurants, buses, ships and a callcenter where aerosol transmission was the most likely cause:
There’s mounting evidence that airborne transmission indoors is a key — perhaps the main — pathway to SARS-COV-2 transmission. In this post I want to look at why that’s so, give examples, and suggest a simple heuristic to stay safe....
That paragraph is footnoted with a link to a WHO recommendation from March.
Quote:
Since then much has been learned about cluster cases in which aerosols were the most likely transmitter of the disease.
Aerosols are droplets smaller than 5 micrometers. At that small size they do not fall to the ground but float in the airstream. Unlike droplets they are not a problem outside of closed rooms as the normal air movement will start to disperse them immediately.
A study in Hubei tracked down 318 cluster creating incidents in which at least 3 persons were involved. It found that only one happened in open air. A Japanese study says that the risk of infection indoors are 19 times higher than outdoors.
An early study has found that the secondary attack rate in households defined as "the probability that an infection occurs among susceptible people within a specific group (ie, household or close contacts)" is quite low at some 35%. Other studies have come to even lower values of some 25%. There were a number of reports of families where only one or two persons were infected while other members of the household did not catch the disease.
But the overall reproduction rate R0 of Covid-19 is estimated to be somewhere between 2 and 3. That means that without isolation measures each newly infected person will on average infect 2 to 3 other persons. How does that fit with the relatively low secondary infections in households?
Science has published a must read piece that explains this conundrum:
Other infectious diseases also spread in clusters. But COVID-19, like two of its cousins, severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), seems especially prone to attacking groups of tightly connected people while sparing others. It's an encouraging finding, scientists say, because it suggests that restricting gatherings where superspreading is likely to occur will have a major impact on transmission and that other restrictions—on outdoor activity, for example—might be eased.
...
Most of the discussion around the spread of SARS-CoV-2 has concentrated on the average number of new infections caused by each patient. Without social distancing, this reproduction number (R) is about three. But in real life, some people infect many others and others don't spread the disease at all. In fact, the latter is the norm, Lloyd-Smith says: “The consistent pattern is that the most common number is zero. Most people do not transmit.”
That's why in addition to R, scientists use a value called the dispersion factor (k), which describes how much a disease clusters. The lower k is, the more transmission comes from a small number of people. In a seminal 2005 Nature paper, Lloyd-Smith and co-authors estimated that SARS—in which superspreading played a major role—had a k of 0.16. The estimated k for MERS, which emerged in 2012, is about 0.25. In the flu pandemic of 1918, in contrast, the value was about one, indicating that clusters played less of a role.
Current estimates of the dNOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
This health care worker could also be looking at criminal charges.
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Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:Quote:Well, now we see that SIX can't carry on an intelligent discussion of viruses, so he has to call people names.
KIKI: How this virus moves in a population isn't clear to me.
SIX: Nothing is clear to you.
You're a retard.
-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
#WEARAMASK
Karen's been bouncing around from thread to thread, some not even related tot he virus, just to personally attack me.
I don't feel sorry. Even Wishy never stalked me like this when she was off her pills and at her worst. At this point I quite prefer dialog with Wish.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Quote:
KIKI: How this virus moves in a population isn't clear to me.
SIX: Nothing is clear to you.
You're a retard.
SIGNY: Well, now we see that SIX can't carry on an intelligent discussion of viruses, so he has to call people names.
SIX: Karen's been bouncing around from thread to thread, some not even related tot he virus, just to personally attack me.
I don't feel sorry. Even Wishy never stalked me like this when she was off her pills and at her worst. At this point I quite prefer dialog with Wish.
OH POOR BABY!
Well, maybe if you hadn't CONTINUALLY LIED ABOUT HER in the first place, saying she was panicked about the virus, supported government control over everything, and constantly mischaracterizing her as a "Karen" ... which, from MY reading of her posts, she is not ... then you wouldn't have gotten such a bad reaction. Yanno, some people get really pissed when they're lied about and unjustly criticized, and she's one of them.
So yeah You started it. AND you kept it going in post after post, and THREAD AFTER THREAD, like you had turned into a GSTRING or something.
The ironic part? When KIKI says you bring NOTHING to the table: no data, no quotes, no links, not even any logic, but that you know JACKSHIT about the topic and are merely interested in denying facts and whining about your poor propects, she's not lying (unlike you) she's telling the truth. I've read your posts, SIX, and they're pure mental garbage, one big giant temper tantrum.
You could roll back the ill will by stop calling her a "Karen", especially since the whiniest bitch around here right now is YOU, Karen.
-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
#WEARAMASK
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Thanks! for this post, Signy! It clarifies, formulates, and expounds on an notion I had.
Way back when I supposed that perhaps NYC or other large outbreaks of COVID-19 were driven by exceptional events - I called them super super-spreaders - more likely found and exploited by the virus when there are large numbers of people --- and noticed only when a super super-spreader encounters a large naive population. A super super-spreader may start a transmission chain of tens of thousands in a large naive population; but that same super super-spreader may start a transmission chain of only 100 in a small community (where the chain of transmission would be damped out by either the statistical improbability of encountering another super super-spreader, or by the physically small number of a naive population that gets exposed.).
That would explain NYC, and the initial infection wave of the Diamond Princess.
And it explains further the fact that Mardi Gras sparked outbreaks in Louisiana, Detroit, Chicago, and several other places of returned revelers, which then damped out.
So I'll alter that and say that maybe large outbreaks are driven by one super super-spreader in very large gatherings like Grand Central Station, perhaps infecting other super super-spreaders.
But as you've noted, and which I've been puzzling over, that leaves California (specifically Los Angeles County), the prolonged transmission of the Diamond Princess, and the Navajo Nation unexplained.
Still, I thank you so much! for finding this and understanding the significance it seems to have in puzzling out how SARS-COV-2 moves through populations.
SARS-COV-2 seems to me to not move uniformly through a population, and its transmission has been puzzling me.
So THANK YOU!! so much again!
Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
I ran across this at Moon of AlabamaQuote:WHO has been corrupt since the beginning
How Cluster Cases Drive The Covid Pandemic
One of the many mysteries of the Covid-19 pandemic is how the disease actually spreads. We were told to wash hands and about the dangers of droplets in one to one contacts. But newer evidence continues to point in another direction.
There are more and more reports about cases where the infections seems to have spread by aerosol, droplets smaller than 5µm in diameter, instead of by bigger droplets or fomites like surfaces and objects. Lambert Strether has collected reports of cluster cases in restaurants, buses, ships and a callcenter where aerosol transmission was the most likely cause:
There’s mounting evidence that airborne transmission indoors is a key — perhaps the main — pathway to SARS-COV-2 transmission. In this post I want to look at why that’s so, give examples, and suggest a simple heuristic to stay safe....
That paragraph is footnoted with a link to a WHO recommendation from March.Quote:
Since then much has been learned about cluster cases in which aerosols were the most likely transmitter of the disease.
Aerosols are droplets smaller than 5 micrometers. At that small size they do not fall to the ground but float in the airstream. Unlike droplets they are not a problem outside of closed rooms as the normal air movement will start to disperse them immediately.
A study in Hubei tracked down 318 cluster creating incidents in which at least 3 persons were involved. It found that only one happened in open air. A Japanese study says that the risk of infection indoors are 19 times higher than outdoors.
An early study has found that the secondary attack rate in households defined as "the probability that an infection occurs among susceptible people within a specific group (ie, household or close contacts)" is quite low at some 35%. Other studies have come to even lower values of some 25%. There were a number of reports of families where only one or two persons were infected while other members of the household did not catch the disease.
But the overall reproduction rate R0 of Covid-19 is estimated to be somewheNOTIFY: N | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:
Originally posted by 1KIKI:
But as you've noted, and which I've been puzzling over, that leaves California (specifically Los Angeles County), the prolonged transmission of the Diamond Princess, and the Navajo Nation unexplained.
To me the Diamond Princess was a giant incubator because people inspite of "isolation" where still close to one another.
As to the Navajo, people move off and on the reserves for work and medical treatment. Also they live in generational housing. Grandparents, aunts, uncles, parents and children.
Also the real kicker is even though the Navajo fund their own schools and police this is done by the tribal councils. Reservations are FEDERAL land and guess what it is hard to have proper sanitation without any running water.
There are wells for families and only in the medical facilities and I would hope the schools and maybe any stores on the reserves have the privilege of running water.
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Thank you so much for your information, Brenda.
But it's sad information, to be sure.
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Quote:
Originally posted by 1KIKI:
Thank you so much for your information, Brenda.
But it's sad information, to be sure.
It is sad. Now, you see why I get angry with your federal government and state governments for how they've handled what is happening on the reserves.
A congresswoman from New Mexico by the name of Deb Haaglad who is a member of the Laguna Pueblo, wanted I believe in one stimulus package between 22 to 40 million for "Indian Country". The Democrats were fighting for this and all the Republicans could scrounge up was 8.4 million. I listened to this lady do an interview on CNN over a month ago. And I know most of you don't like CNN but they at least cover what is happening. It's that or the internet for me to know. I should also mention that Trump wanted $0 to go to Indian Country.
All reserves are Federal land that was given to us and by "us", I mean all the tribes in the US by treaty. "For as long as the grass grows, the wind blows and the rivers flow."
Another piece of news from down there and this is also over a month old now was Gov. Kristi Noem of South Dakota was demanding then threatening legal action against several bands of the Dakota nation. These bands had put up Covid-19 check points on the roads leading onto their reserves. They were trying to protect their own people. Main highways can go through reserve lands as short cuts. They were stopping cars and if they weren't tribe members, they were asked to turn around.
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My relationship with the First Nations is pretty tenuous. I might have mentioned that after I graduated, the very first interview I had for my very first real full time job was at the Navajo reservation hospital in Ganado. I did turn down the job because they wanted a 5 year commitment on the reservation, and it was so different and unimaginable to me that I wasn't sure I had 5 years in me.
But that sparked a lifelong curiosity. I always want to know more.
And I'm sorry to know that people are struggling there and on many reservations with COIVD-19.
There are so many historic and current-day injustices against the First Nations. It would take a lifetime to even right one of them. That's why I still stand in awe of the Canadian legal system, and the creation of Nunavut.
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