new deadly human-to-human-transmissible coronavirus emerges out of China
POSTED BY: 1KIKI
UPDATED: Tuesday, May 5, 2026 22:21
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I did just calculate the case fatality rate for countries with greater than 5,000 cases from worldOmeters, but I also calculated it from JH for the US. Then I restricted the data to western developed nations.
The reason I did this is because I wanted to see what might be an expectable case fatality rate in a developed western world setting.
I think Germany's and SK's numbers are the most reliable, since they have the most extensive population testing in the group. And those numbers give an average case fatality rate of 2.4%. The US is ~4.35% by comparison. Sweden is 10.1% and the UK is 13.1%.
But as time goes on and countries move over to the backside of the curve, I think the case fatality rate will go up as deaths catch up to cases.
Australia 1.0
Israel 1.0
Japan 1.8
S. Korea 2.1
Norway 2.2
Germany 2.7
Austria 2.7
Canada 3.5
Ireland 3.5
USA 4.3
USA 4.4
Denmark 4.6
Switzerland 4.7
Sweden 10.1
Spain 10.5
France 11.0
Netherlands 11.1
UK 13.1
Italy 13.1
Belgium 13.2
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Meanwhile, in reality...
Fatality rate will be much, much lower than is ever reported because we will never have any idea how many hundreds of millions or even billions of people had it and never got tested.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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I picked 3,000 cases per state because it's a good substantial number, not easily moved by fluke incidents. But 3,000 cases is a lot of cases. And in 2 and a half weeks, the US went from having 5 states with more than 3,000 cases to 28 states with more than 3,000 cases.
Last updated: April 16, 2020, 18:59 GMT
28 states with more than 3,00 cases
Last updated: April 15, 2020, 17:29 GMT
28 states with more than 3,00 cases
Last updated: April 14, 2020, 20:12 GMT
26 states with more than 3,00 cases
Last updated: April 13, 2020, 21:04 GMT
25 states with more than 3,00 cases
Last updated: April 09, 2020, 20:28 GMT
22 states with more than 3,00 cases
Last updated: April 09, 2020, 00:24 GMT (posted late April 08, 2020)
21 states with more than 3,00 cases
Last updated: April 06, 2020
20 states with more than 3,00 cases
Last updated: April 06, 2020, 01:13 GMT (posted April 5, 2020)
19 states with more than 3,00 cases
Last updated: April 04, 2020, 20:33 GMT
18 states with more than 3,00 cases
Last updated: April 02, 2020, 18:17 GMT
16 states with more than 3,00 cases
Last updated: April 01, 2020, 21:16 GMT
13 states with more than 3,00 cases
As of March 29, 2020 at 18:24 GMT
10 states with more than 3,00 cases
As of March 28, 2020 at 18:19 GMT
5 states with more than 3,00 cases
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Quote:Meanwhile, in the REAL real world, if you don't have enough ventilators, doctors, hospital beds, masks, and morgue space ... Houston, we have a problem. No matter how many tests are, or aren't, done.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Meanwhile, in reality...
Fatality rate will be much, much lower than is ever reported because we will never have any idea how many hundreds of millions or even billions of people had it and never got tested.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
#WEARAMASK
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Quote:
Originally posted by 1KIKI:
I picked 3,000 cases per state because it's a good substantial number, not easily moved by fluke incidents. But 3,000 cases is a lot of cases. And in 2 and a half weeks, the US went from having 5 states with more than 3,000 cases to 28 states with more than 3,000 cases.
Last updated: April 16, 2020, 18:59 GMT
28 states with more than 3,00 cases
Last updated: April 15, 2020, 17:29 GMT
28 states with more than 3,00 cases
Last updated: April 14, 2020, 20:12 GMT
26 states with more than 3,00 cases
Last updated: April 13, 2020, 21:04 GMT
25 states with more than 3,00 cases
Last updated: April 09, 2020, 20:28 GMT
22 states with more than 3,00 cases
Last updated: April 09, 2020, 00:24 GMT (posted late April 08, 2020)
21 states with more than 3,00 cases
Last updated: April 06, 2020
20 states with more than 3,00 cases
Last updated: April 06, 2020, 01:13 GMT (posted April 5, 2020)
19 states with more than 3,00 cases
Last updated: April 04, 2020, 20:33 GMT
18 states with more than 3,00 cases
Last updated: April 02, 2020, 18:17 GMT
16 states with more than 3,00 cases
Last updated: April 01, 2020, 21:16 GMT
13 states with more than 3,00 cases
As of March 29, 2020 at 18:24 GMT
10 states with more than 3,00 cases
As of March 28, 2020 at 18:19 GMT
5 states with more than 3,00 cases
KNOWN cases.
Huge difference between the spin and the reality here.
It's hard to miss counting people who get sick enough that they go to the hospital and impossible to trip over dead bodies.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:Quote:Meanwhile, in the REAL real world, if you don't have enough ventilators, doctors, hospital beds, masks, and morgue space ... Houston, we have a problem. No matter how many tests are, or aren't, done.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Meanwhile, in reality...
Fatality rate will be much, much lower than is ever reported because we will never have any idea how many hundreds of millions or even billions of people had it and never got tested.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
#WEARAMASK
I don't give a shit, Sigs.
We've fucked the economy over this, and there's no going back from that.
Once this panic is over you're going to realize that pretty quickly.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Quote:fify
more untrue stuff posted by Kevin
Do Right, Be Right. :)
lol
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Whatever you say, wackjob.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Quote:fify
more untrue stuff posted by Kevin
Do Right, Be Right. :)
lol
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So I assume you're saying that the worldwide and US birth and death rates that I posted are bullshit then?
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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