new deadly human-to-human-transmissible coronavirus emerges out of China
POSTED BY: 1KIKI
UPDATED: Tuesday, May 5, 2026 22:21
VIEWED: 203741
PAGE 106 of 283
Simulating an epidemic
Playable simulations of a disease outbreak.
"Playable" means you'll get to tweak parameters (like transmission and mortality rates) and watch how the epidemic unfolds.
By the end of this article, I hope you'll have a better understanding — perhaps better intuition — for what it takes to contain this thing.
More at https://meltingasphalt.com/interactive/outbreak/
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
cnn had some graphs this morning that showed near future predictions for 3 areas based on if things continue as they are: Lousiana, NY, and Vermont. The graphs showed available beds and expected bed needs through the first 2 weeks of May. There were sharp spikes on each chart that exceeded the beds available - no surprise. What stood out to me though was not the beds or spikes, but what came after the spikes: the first week of May the numbers were way, way down to almost zero. I don't know if they were accurate or if because that wasn't part of the message they just drew it in like that.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/02/health/aerosol-coronavirus-spread-w
hite-house-letter/index.html
Experts tell White House coronavirus can spread through talking or even just breathing
(CNN)A prestigious scientific panel told the White House Wednesday night that research shows coronavirus can be spread not just by sneezes or coughs, but also just by talking, or possibly even just breathing.
"While the current [coronavirus] specific research is limited, the results of available studies are consistent with aerosolization of virus from normal breathing," according to the letter, written by Dr. Harvey Fineberg, chairman of a committee with the National Academy of Sciences.
Fineberg told CNN that he will wear start wearing a mask (ie cowboy bandana or balaclava) when he goes to the grocery store.
Fineberg, chair of the NAS' Standing Committee on Emerging Infectious Diseases and 21st Century Health Threats, said his letter was sent Wednesday evening in response to a query from Kelvin Droegemeier with the Office of Science and Technology Policy at the White House.
"This letter responds to your question concerning the possibility that [coronavirus] could be spread by conversation, in addition to sneeze/cough-induced droplets," the letter states. "Currently available research supports the possibility that [coronavirus] could be spread via bioaerosols generated directly by patients' exhalation," it continues.
Well, ahem! - kind of OBVIOUSLY. The Chinese patient on the Diamond Princess who spread SARS-COV-2 to at least 60 people didn't cough or sneeze on all of them. And the virus didn't then spread through the ship because everyone was coughing and sneezing on everyone else. (I wonder if 'superspreaders' are what they are by virtue of the fact that their mechanics produce far more aerosols than most people's.)
NOTIFY: N | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/02/health/cats-dogs-ferrets-coronaviru
s-wellness/index.html
Cats may get coronavirus, but experts say it's nothing to worry about
summary: Cats and ferrets can get SARS-COV-2, and cats can spread it to each other but don't appear to get sick. Dogs, pigs, chickens, and ducks seem to be inhospitable. This is similar to results from the original SARS-COV.
"Out of an abundance of caution," the AVMA suggests anyone ill with COVID-19 symptoms limit contact at this time, "until more information is known about the virus."
"Have another member of your household take care of walking, feeding, and playing with your pet," the AVMA states. "If you have a service animal or you must care for your pet, then wear a facemask; don't share food, kiss, or hug them; and wash your hands before and after any contact with them."
NOTIFY: N | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/
-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
#STAYTHEFUCKHOME
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
That's a terrific website!
NOTIFY: N | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
I got sent this. It makes the point that accurate numbers of infected, numbers of cases, and numbers of deaths due to SARS-COV-2 are extremely difficult to come by. I agree completely.
But I want to point out that IN THE US, 'the' flu numbers (which is a combination of 5 tracked and an unknown numbers of untracked influenza /viruses+other-cases-of-flu-like-symptoms) are even more obscure. The reason I mention this is because people erroneously compare SARS-COV-2 numbers to 'the' flu numbers, thinking that 'the' flu numbers are anything but statistical modeling. 'The' flu numbers aren't hard data, and there's a multiple +/-10,000 range for them.
And here's why -
When people come in to a place (that participates in the CDC influenza surveillance program) with flu-like symptoms, they're tested for 5 known circulating flu strains. But if they have a virus for which there's no test, they won't be counted in the survey. What this test does is try to track which of the known flu strains predominates. And it tries to link severity of illness with each strain. That data goes into generating vaccines for the next countries down the line. (IIRC the US gets its flu data from Australia, which leads the US in flu season and gives the US enough time to select what look like problematic strains and to manufacture vaccines.)
It may also generate a very rough idea of the presence of flu IN SYMPTOMATIC PEOPLE. But those people are probably worse off than the general symptomatic population, or they wouldn't be going to the doctor, or for the un- and under-insured, county facilities.
Nowhere does it try to do a random population survey to see what percent of people are infected, a number that would go into calculating what the article calls "infection fatality rate" or IFR.
When it comes to flu deaths, only pediatric deaths are reportable to the CDC. No other flu deaths are reportable. And that leads the CDC to rely on statistical models, along with (really patchy) surveys of death certificates that report something like 'pneumonia'. They have to estimate normal deaths, estimate non-viral-pneumonia deaths, and then calculate viral-pneumonia excess deaths from that. That number I think would be be called a 'number of fatalities' (not a case-fatality rate).
And then they report it out for the entire year, as deaths due to influenza generically (not as deaths due to 'the' flu, or due to any one strain of flu specifically). Annual reporting helps wash out the lag time between infection and death, because the number people who die now are related statistically to number of people who were infected a month before. An annual report smooths out that discrepancy.
WAY back when I opined that the only way people are going to try to unscramble the actual impact of SARS-COV-2 is to do an 'excess deaths' population calculation, a point the article also makes.
On to the article:
Quote:
China Did Not Deceive Us - Counting Death During An Epidemic Is Really Difficult
The anti-China campaign, which the Deputy National Security Advisor Matthew Pottinger is running, presented its first of April joke. It leaked to Bloomberg that a secret U.S. Intelligence Report claims that China concealed the real numbers of its Covid-19 cases:
China has concealed the extent of the coronavirus outbreak in its country, under-reporting both total cases and deaths it’s suffered from the disease, the U.S. intelligence community concluded in a classified report to the White House, according to three U.S. officials.
...
While China eventually imposed a strict lockdown beyond those of less autocratic nations, there has been considerable skepticism of China’s reported numbers, both outside and within the country. The Chinese government has repeatedly revised its methodology for counting cases, for weeks excluding people without symptoms entirely, and only on Tuesday added more than 1,500 asymptomatic cases to its total.
...
StNOTIFY: N | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
One exceptionally easy to read and lucid post about "How likely are you to die of coronavirus?"
https://unherd.com/2020/04/how-likely-are-you-to-die-of-coronavirus/
NOTIFY: N | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Shopping today in our (sanitized, re-used) N95 respirators. I consolidate errands into one day, which saves the hassle and risk of putting on/taking off masks; we just don them and leave them on until we get home, then we sanitize in the entryway and toss our masks into the "dirty" box for them to be sanitized again.
I often go to two stores because one often has what the other doesn't. Also to the drive-thru pharmacy, the drive thru post office, and the gas station bc needed a fillup. I thought to try Instacart, but they can't deliver for 5 days and I need groceries THIS week, not next! So at store #1 about 1/3 people were wearing some sort of mask or another, at store #2 about half. Some were wearing bandanas, most were wearing procedure masks, a few were wearing paper N95 resirators (like us) and one guy ... I swear to god ... was wearing a full-on army surplus gas mask. I noticed our cashier had a mask, and when I commented she said that she got it from a customer and that management finally let them wear them. Why in god's name would you NOT allow mask-wearing? Even the post office, which has a notorious stick up its ass, was letting people wear masks from home two weeks ago.
But the one thing I saw which was a little frustrating were a few couples where the wife was wearing a mask, but husband was just too cool to wear one. DOOD, if you get sick your wife gets sick! Seriously, get a clue.
-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
#STAYTHEFUCKHOME
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
The question I have about baking a mask is - does the heat not deteriorate the elastic? For myself, I only go out once a week and condense my errands into one big round trip, but I wasn't sure about heating the elastic, so I just let the mask attenuate with time.
I've been meaning to, but I just looked up what the 3M N95 masks are made from. I was curious if they were cellulose-based (paper) or something else. What they say is "The respirator incorporates 3M’s proprietary technology with advanced electrostatically charged microfiber filter media designed for ease of breathing."
NOTIFY: N | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME