new deadly human-to-human-transmissible coronavirus emerges out of China
POSTED BY: 1KIKI
UPDATED: Tuesday, May 5, 2026 22:21
VIEWED: 203741
PAGE 96 of 283
see latest post for updated figures
NOTIFY: N | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
see latest post for updated figures
NOTIFY: N | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
see latest post for updated figures
NOTIFY: N | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
see latest post for updated figures
NOTIFY: N | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
with all of the data available we shold be able to start to draw some conclusions, or at least ask questions.
I noticed, for example, that after Italy went on lockdown the number of new cases tends to stick pretty close to an average of about 5,500, which means it is no longer exponential. But where is the transmission still occurring?
-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
#STAYTHEFUCKHOME
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Another overwhelmed hospital - this time Kaiser in Santa Clara, California.
Nearly Half Of All Patients At Bay Area Hospital Are Confirmed Or Suspected Coronavirus Cases
https://www.zerohedge.com/health/half-all-patients-bay-area-hospital-a
re-confirmed-or-suspected-coronavirus-cases
NOTIFY: N | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:I was looking at that myself. If a month is the lag between infections and deaths, then it'll be about a month between looking at any action and any possible 'deaths' result. But maybe 2weeks is the lag between infection and diagnosed cases. Since Italy went into a lockdown on March 9, then tightened it significantly March 11, we SHOULD be seeing the results in lowered new infections right about now. But after hovering at the roughly low5,X00 mark for 3days, and an interlude day even dipping into the high4,X00 mark during that time, new cases suddenly jumped up to low6,X00. Maybe that's just a blip, but I haven't seen anything ratchet downward after ratcheting upward. The next 2 or 3 days will indicate better which way this is going. But if the numbers are TRULY going up, I expect it's due to another 'hot-spot' of infection rather than country-wide, because that's how this seems to work.
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
with all of the data available we shold be able to start to draw some conclusions, or at least ask questions.
I noticed, for example, that after Italy went on lockdown the number of new cases tends to stick pretty close to an average of about 5,500, which means it is no longer exponential. But where is the transmission still occurring?
-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
#STAYTHEFUCKHOME
BTW, when it comes to China, I don't trust their numbers at all. I read that China announced severe penalties for covering up cases and deaths. But the flip side to that official statement is that China is 'open for business'. (I wonder if that's what's pushing Trump - to not get too far behind the Chinese timetable ...) So the takeaway message in China is don't get CAUGHT covering up cases and deaths. I've read in more than 1 place hospitals and clinics routinely turning away people with COVID symptoms. 'What they eye does not see does not trouble the mind'. Or TPTB.
Hong Kong was one of the few places that brought it under control before it had a chance to take off. (Singapore was another). But Hong Kong recently relaxed some of their restrictions. That experiment, which I posted about before, doesn't seem to be going well.
ETA:
OTOH the Hong Kong experiment isn't going well ...
https://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/national/after-relaxing-restrict
ions-hong-kong-seeing-third-wave-of-covid-19-cases
After relaxing restrictions, Hong Kong seeing 'third wave' of COVID-19 cases
NOTIFY: N | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Apparently "social distancing" isn't working too well in NYC. Parks, farmer's markets, athletic fields, promenades, basketball courts are filled with people taking in the sun, shooting hoops, and in general getting up in each others business, like NYCers are wont to do.
Gov Cuomo is talking about taking a "harder line" and closing [some?all?] parks etc to enforce social distancing.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/25/coronavirus-new-york-city-weighs-closi
ng-parks-playgrounds-and-streets-to-enforce-social-distancing-gov-cuomo-says.html
So while the NYC hospitals are almost full, they may not see as much of a reprieve as they had hoped in the next two weeks, since the "stay home" order has obviously failed.
*****
Oh by the way, just for fun we watched Contagion which we had seen many years ago. In some ways it was surprisingly accurate, in other ways very much off the mark.
But the term "social distancing" isn't a new one; they used it in the movie, which was made in 2011.
-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
#STAYTHEFUCKHOME
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
There's always a silver lining ..
Quote:
France, Czechs, & Other US Allies Exit Iraq Over COVID-19 Fears
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/france-other-us-allies-exit-ira
q-bases-over-covid-19-fears
Not the USA, tho. But maybe with its regime change partners-in-crime having left the scene. the USA military will follow?
-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
#STAYTHEFUCKHOME
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
New data from the rest of Europe suggests that the outbreak is running faster than expected, said Ferguson. As a result, epidemiologists have revised their estimate of the reproduction number (R0) of the virus. This measure of how many other people a carrier usually infects is now believed to be just over three, he said, up from 2.5. “That adds more evidence to support the more intensive social distancing measures,” he said.
www.newscientist.com/article/2238578-uk-has-enough-intensive-care-unit
s-for-coronavirus-expert-predicts/
Neil Ferguson is the guy in charge of the Imperial College study that predicted 2 million coronavirus deaths in the US and 500,000 in Britain if no control measures were taken. He now believes that Britain will keep its death toll under 20,000 due to the strong isolation and social distancing measures being taken.
Which is great! At the same time, estimating that R0 has increased from 2.5 to 3.1 is . . . very, very bad. It means that on average, every infected person infects three other people, not 2.5 other people—which makes the spread of the virus much wider and faster. Without any control measures, for example, it means that after ten generations a single person will be responsible for 80,000 infections instead of 10,000 infections.
In other words, control measures are even more important than we thought.
www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2020/03/ferguson-r0-for-coronavirus-is-
probably-3-1/
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME