new deadly human-to-human-transmissible coronavirus emerges out of China
POSTED BY: 1KIKI
UPDATED: Tuesday, May 5, 2026 22:21
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see latest post for most recent figures
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see latest post for most recent figures
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Quote:This seems entirely possible for a few reasons. And it's why I've been tracking numbers and noting when measures were instituted.
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/25/health/coronavirus-death-peak-three
-weeks-epidemiologist/index.html
Coronavirus deaths in the US could reach peak in three weeks, epidemiologist says
In terms of the numbers to track, a good article I read said the most reliable numbers are deaths, since testing live people is subject to the numbers of test kits and the vagaries of testing policies.
My observations of China(Wuhan), SK(Shincheonji Church of Jesus), the Diamond Princess, Italy(Lombardy), and the US(NYC) are that there are very intense hotspots of infection, while lower levels of infection can be achieved elsewhere. These intense hotspots are driven by ~ early undetected spread and/ or the kinds of conditions you associate with viral disease transmission, ~tight quarters, ~person to person contact, ~ a lot of generic environmental contact with many different people, like Grand Central Station or the Wuhan wet market, and possibly ~the presence of super-spreaders.
If you control the rampant hotspots you can control the overall growth of the epidemic through more targeted means elsewhere.
The US had 4 early candidates as hotspots - Washington state, SanFran, LACounty, and NYC. But Washington SARS-COV-2 was spreading among nursing homes rather than the general population, when it was discovered, because of people (having to) working multiple jobs at different nursing homes. SanFran instituted shelter-in-place early. LACounty seems to have been protected by its relatively dispersed geography. NYC otoh looks like it ticked off the right boxes.
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Your figures ... just to be clear, the # of infections in the USA almost pentupled in the space of five days. And THAT is limited by test criteria of the CDC (which the fuckers STILL haven't changed) and by the number of test kits available in states which have chosen to relax the test criteria, plus the creaky reporting system.
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Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
#STAYTHEFUCKHOME
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Quote:That's true! And I don't trust those numbers, which is why I noted a factor of up to X60 might be applicable. So even though I started out tracking infections I later also began recording deaths as the more relevant number.
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Your figures ... just to be clear, the # of infections in the USA almost pentupled in the space of ten days. And THAT is limited by test criteria of the CDC (which the fuckers STILL haven't changed) and by the number of test kits available in states which have chosen to relax the test criteria, plus the creaky reporting system.
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Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
#STAYTHEFUCKHOME
But looking at the top 5 states' numbers, it's clear the driver of US numbers is NYC (with ~ 15,00 cases https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/coronavirus/new-york-starts-new-experi
mental-drug-therapies-to-treat-covid-19-heres-what-we-know/2341931/ ), which all by itself has roughly 1/4 of all cases and 1/4 of all deaths in the entire country.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
state/ cases/ new cases/ deaths
New York 30,811 +4,463 285
New Jersey 3,675 ===== 44
California 2,643 +77 55
Washington 2,469 ===== 123
Michigan 1,791 ===== 54
Total: 60,653 +5,797 819
ETA: China is starting the first COVID-19 experiment that the rest of the world will be watching - what happens when you relax restrictions? Will it rise up again? SK is still maintaining its intense testing, face-masking in public, tracing-and-quarantining policies.
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see latest post for updated figures
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Well, OK! The # of infections in the USA has almost sextupled in the space of about 6 days! It's getting pretty hard to keep up with those numbers!!
And STILL limited by the #of test kits and CDC test criteria!
-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
#STAYTHEFUCKHOME
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I expect to see more cases in young people in the next few weeks, because - yanno - spring break.
This is by no means done. But ~IF~ the US and the individual states continue to do what we're doing for another month or 2, we'll hopefully turn this back.
And then we'll have to look to the China experiment which is starting now, for what to do next - what happens when you relax restrictions?
ETA:
OTOH the Hong Kong experiment isn't going well ...
https://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/national/after-relaxing-restrict
ions-hong-kong-seeing-third-wave-of-covid-19-cases
After relaxing restrictions, Hong Kong seeing 'third wave' of COVID-19 cases
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see latest post for updated figures
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