new deadly human-to-human-transmissible coronavirus emerges out of China

POSTED BY: 1KIKI
UPDATED: Tuesday, May 5, 2026 22:21
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SIGNYM

Sunday, March 22, 2020 3:07 AM

Quote:
Unlike people who have immediately gone from viewing the government by its own nature as an enemy of the people to their savior when they get panicked, just like our Forefathers warned us against, I will never, EVER waver on that issue.

And that means that you're ideologically-possessed.

I'm not one to say that government is ALWAYS the solution. OTOH I wouldn't say that government is NEVER the solution either. That's the difference between you and me: You don't allow reality to intrude on your ideology, which is pretty much what I've been saying all along. That, and you're pretty self-centered.

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#STAYTHEFUCKHOME

SIGNYM

Sunday, March 22, 2020 3:17 AM

So I did some pencil-whipping of my own. I took a look at the USA population distribution by age https://www.statista.com/statistics/241488/population-of-the-us-by-sex
-and-age/ and crossed it with the Chinese death rate by age https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-death-age-older-people-hig
her-risk-2020-2?op=1 assuming that the virus is unconstrained and that 80% of the population gets the virus within one year.

Using those basic figures and assumptions, I calculate a death rate of 15.73 MILLION in one year:

127,000 dead in the 40-50 age range
445,000 .... 50-60
1,077,000 ... 60-70
2,169,000 ... 70-80
1,501,000 ... 80+

The remainder of the population accounts for an additional 322,000 deaths

So we can discuss the differences in basic health status of Chinese v Americans, health care delivery, the speed of the spread of contagion (maybe it will take 2 years to reach the 80% mark), whether the overwhelmed medical system will allow additional deaths from car accidents, heart attacks, cancer, difficult childbirths etc. but I think 15 million in one year is a good first estimate.

Check my math!

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#STAYTHEFUCKHOME

1KIKI

Sunday, March 22, 2020 4:36 AM

Quote:
https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-03-21-20-
intl-hnk/h_78c431662464112a27434663a0860cdc

Health officials in New York City and Los Angeles County are signaling a change in local strategy when it comes to coronavirus testing, recommending that doctors avoid testing patients except in cases where a test result would significantly change the course of treatment.

A news release from the Los Angeles Department of Public Health this week advised doctors not to test those experiencing only mild respiratory symptoms unless “a diagnostic result will change clinical management or inform public health response.”

The recommendation reflects a "shifting from a strategy of case containment to slowing disease transmission and averting excess morbidity and mortality," according to the statement.

The guidance said coronavirus testing at L.A. County public health labs will prioritized those with symptoms, health care workers, residents of long-term care facilities, paramedics and other high-risk situations. Others are encouraged to simply stay at home.

At about the same time, the New York City Department of Health directed all healthcare facilities to immediately stop testing non-hospitalized patients for Covid-19.

I've been thinking about this.

First of all, it means the testing capacity is so FUBARed they've given up even trying to test in a high demand situation.

And it looks like NYC Health has pretty much written off the entire city ... unless they're now issuing blanket quarantine orders for anything that looks like COVID-19. They're not even trying to isolate cases, or even count numbers as they go in and out of medical offices, clinics, and ERs.

And what specifically is LACounty doing?

And, as usual, important specifics got left out! If someone presents with something that looks like COVID-19, are they still recommending quarantine at home even if it's unconfirmed? And quarantine of family members from the sick person in the same home? Or have they written communities and families off along with quarantines? If so, was it because experience was showing them that people weren't, or couldn't, stick to quarantines due to asocial responses, mingy apartments, and lack of helpful family and/ or neighbors?

LACounty is going with quarantining unconfirmed COVID-19 patients.
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-03-20/coronavirus-county
-doctors-containment-testing
As I read this, lack of confirming test results were an obstacle to quarantining patients. They've decided to both stop testing AND simultaneously not base quarantine orders on test results. Instead, they're ordering quarantines based on 'clinical' diagnosis only.

6IXSTRINGJACK

Sunday, March 22, 2020 8:54 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:

Quote:
Unlike people who have immediately gone from viewing the government by its own nature as an enemy of the people to their savior when they get panicked, just like our Forefathers warned us against, I will never, EVER waver on that issue.
And that means that you're ideologically-possessed.

I'm not one to say that government is ALWAYS the solution. OTOH I wouldn't say that government is NEVER the solution either. That's the difference between you and me: You don't allow reality to intrude on your ideology, which is pretty much what I've been saying all along. That, and you're pretty self-centered.

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#STAYTHEFUCKHOME

Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

SIGNYM

Sunday, March 22, 2020 12:08 PM

Quote:
1KIKI:
Quote:
https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-03-21-20-
intl-hnk/h_78c431662464112a27434663a0860cdc

Health officials in New York City and Los Angeles County are signaling a change in local strategy when it comes to coronavirus testing, recommending that doctors avoid testing patients except in cases where a test result would significantly change the course of treatment.

A news release from the Los Angeles Department of Public Health this week advised doctors not to test those experiencing only mild respiratory symptoms unless “a diagnostic result will change clinical management or inform public health response.”

The recommendation reflects a "shifting from a strategy of case containment to slowing disease transmission and averting excess morbidity and mortality," according to the statement.

The guidance said coronavirus testing at L.A. County public health labs will prioritized those with symptoms, health care workers, residents of long-term care facilities, paramedics and other high-risk situations. Others are encouraged to simply stay at home.

At about the same time, the New York City Department of Health directed all healthcare facilities to immediately stop testing non-hospitalized patients for Covid-19.

I've been thinking about this.

First of all, it means the testing capacity is so FUBARed they've given up even trying to test in a high demand situation.

And it looks like NYC Health has pretty much written off the entire city ... unless they're now issuing blanket quarantine orders for anything that looks like COVID-19. They're not even trying to isolate cases, or even count numbers as they go in and out of medical offices, clinics, and ERs.

And what specifically is LACounty doing?

And, as usual, important specifics got left out! If someone presents with something that looks like COVID-19, are they still recommending quarantine at home even if it's unconfirmed? And quarantine of family members from the sick person in the same home? Or have they written communities and families off along with quarantines? If so, was it because experience was showing them that people weren't, or couldn't, stick to quarantines due to asocial responses, mingy apartments, and lack of helpful family and/ or neighbors?

LACounty is going with quarantining unconfirmed COVID-19 patients.
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-03-20/coronavirus-county
-doctors-containment-testing
As I read this, lack of confirming test results were an obstacle to quarantining patients. They've decided to both stop testing AND simultaneously not base quarantine orders on test results. Instead, they're ordering quarantines based on 'clinical' diagnosis only.

How can the testing situation become so incredibly FUBARED? Is it overwhelming demand? Inability to prioritize testing? Kits that don't work? Desire NOT to see the results? Concern that the testing situation is mixing the worried well with the truly sick?

Isn't it a little late to wait until someone is hospitalized until they're tested? If they have Covid-19, shouldn't they be put into a negative pressure isolation unit immediately??

WTF do you think is going on?

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#STAYTHEFUCKHOME

6IXSTRINGJACK

Sunday, March 22, 2020 12:13 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:

WTF do you think is going on?

It's hard to justify telling millions of Americans they can't be caught leaving their homes without a damned good reason if they keep testing like they have started to do and the numbers show that COVID-19 is no more dangerous than the Flu.

If there are problems at this point, it's manufactured problems.

Your skepticism is warranted.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

SIGNYM

Sunday, March 22, 2020 12:27 PM

Quote:
SIX: Unlike people who have immediately gone from viewing the government by its own nature as an enemy of the people to their savior when they get panicked, just like our Forefathers warned us against, I will never, EVER waver on that issue.

SIGNYM: And that means that you're ideologically-possessed.
I'm not one to say that government is ALWAYS the solution. OTOH I wouldn't say that government is NEVER the solution either. That's the difference between you and me: You don't allow reality to intrude on your ideology, which is pretty much what I've been saying all along. That, and you're pretty self-centered.
#STAYTHEFUCKHOME

SIX: Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety.

Oh jeez, now you sound just like WISHY. SHE'S willing to sacrifie millions ... billions ... on her altar of "liberty" and so, apparently, are you. No wonder you argue so much: you're very much the same.

SOMETIMES you have to sacrifice "essential liberty" ... like, the freedom to go around potentially infecting others ... because real-world circumstances (which respect no ideology) require you to do so.

But people should be able to make distinctions between virus-related responses and power-grabs.

Making test kits as available as possible to as many as possible? A useful response.
Quarantining demonstrably infectious people? Useful response.
Arrogating the power to confiscate guns and alcohol? Power grab.
Asking for the power to indefinitely detain people without trial? Power grab.
Ordering "shelter in place"? Useful, but only if combined with enhanced testing, otherwise it becomes, in effect, indefinite detention.
MANDATORY de-identified case reporting? Useful response.
Transparency of data? Useful response.
Doxxing people? Power grab.
Enforcing "political correctness" on discussions? Power grab.

I would, for example, never accept that Congress write a new, permanent law (like the so-called "Patriot" Act) when the government already has all of the power that it needs AND the situation is only temporary.

I would never accept censorship of the internet (like RUSSIA!RUSSIA! prompted).

Nor would I accept universal surveillance.

Not too keen on the Fed bailing out hedge funds either. These are big boys and girls, whenyou invest in a hedge fund you know your money is at risk, and if your bet goes sideways you should expect to swallow the results.

I understand "never let a good crisis go to waste" means that all kinds of interests will be doing their best to weaponize the event. But since "doing nothing" is not an option, you simply have to be a wise analyst of cui bonoand separate the wheat from the chaff,

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#STAYTHEFUCKHOME

SIGNYM

Sunday, March 22, 2020 1:02 PM

There's a lot here in this article, I can't possibly sum it up. One place where the author and I agree is that we need MORE TESTING. Also, MANDATORY centralized reporting.

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/covid-19-evidence-over-hysteria

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#STAYTHEFUCKHOME

1KIKI

Sunday, March 22, 2020 1:13 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
How can the testing situation become so incredibly FUBARED? Is it overwhelming demand? Inability to prioritize testing? Kits that don't work? Desire NOT to see the results? Concern that the testing situation is mixing the worried well with the truly sick?

Isn't it a little late to wait until someone is hospitalized until they're tested? If they have Covid-19, shouldn't they be put into a negative pressure isolation unit immediately??

WTF do you think is going on?

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#STAYTHEFUCKHOME

It's shortages ... shortages of test kits, and of masks, gowns, and gloves to safely do the testing; and an unwillingness to risk medical people by doing unsafe testing when they are, and will be, needed elsewhere. I wouldn't be surprised if was also long turn-around-times because the US doesn't have high-volume testing capabilities. Many different laboratories are all siloed with their own different mix of equipment and instrumentation geared towards flexible but EXTREMELY low-volume 'specialty testing'.

1KIKI

Sunday, March 22, 2020 2:10 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
There's a lot here in this article, I can't possibly sum it up. One place where the author and I agree is that we need MORE TESTING. Also, MANDATORY centralized reporting.

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/covid-19-evidence-over-hysteria

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#STAYTHEFUCKHOME

Checking out the link back to the original at medium.com - it's always interesting when a recent link gives a 410 error "This post is under investigation or was found in violation of the Medium Rules.".

OMG his analysis was - scrambled. Here's one example - he talked about the 'fact' that R0 was dropping in different countries, as if it was some magical kinder, gentler virus that was being more polite. But measured R0 - which is all we have in the real world, and which is what he was talking about - is VITALLY dependent on the social circumstances of the society the virus is spreading through. To illustrate the point - measured R0 will vary between a society where everyone lives alone v a society where extended families live 30 in a single hut. And as a matter of recent historical fact - R0 was dropping because countries were/ are taking active measures to stop viral spread.

I'd do an extended discussion of his discussion, but I know no one would read it because their minds are already made up.

Anyway, he's a guy who definitely has an agenda to push -
Who is Aaron Ginn?
Aaron Ginn
Aaron Ginn is a Silicon Valley technologist who has worked in Republican party politics in Silicon Valley. Ginn has contributed writing to Breitbart, TechCrunch, TheNextWeb, and Townhall on various subjects.

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