Real World Event Discussions

new deadly human-to-human-transmissible coronavirus emerges out of China

POSTED BY: 1KIKI
UPDATED: Tuesday, May 5, 2026 22:21
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Saturday, March 7, 2020 11:47 PM

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa-coronavirus/
As of March 07, 2020 at 18:35 GMT, there have been 373 confirmed cases and 17 deaths due to coronavirus COVID-19 in the United States.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda75
94740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Total Confirmed
376


U.S. Is Lagging in Coronavirus Tests, and It's Not Even Close
Washington Post|16 minutes ago
If you look only at a list of confirmed novel coronavirus cases ... fewer residents than New Jersey, has tested nearly twice as many people. The U.K., which has far fewer cases, has tested over 20,000. This gap is particularly worrisome given evidence of community spread in a number of different states and a high death count, both of which ...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/us-is-lagging-in-coronavirus-t
ests-and-its-not-even-close/2020/03/07/bfdf5326-607c-11ea-ac50-18701e14e06d_story.html



South Korea has tested 140,000 people for the coronavirus. That could explain why its death rate is just 0.6% — far lower than in China or the US.
Business Insider|2 days ago
Experts have suggested that coronavirus death rates could decrease as more mild cases are confirmed.
https://www.businessinsider.com/south-korea-coronavirus-testing-death-
rate-2020-3

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Sunday, March 8, 2020 12:23 AM

There's no way I'd get tested or get a vaccine for this thing.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Sunday, March 8, 2020 1:21 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Case case case cluster cluster BOOM!

Italy coronavirus cases jump by 1,247 in a day
https://www.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-03-07-20-intl-
hnk/h_6fcd7e82f91b2cdf48b6ae094d210d77



And it's not because they haven't been testing all along.

The China example of SARS-COV-2 having entrenched itself in a geographic area - and what might be necessary to stop it

China
Quote:

lockdown Hubei province
banning factories from opening after the Lunar New Year holiday
travel bans
people forced into isolation
self-quarantine
people are stopped and given random health checks. Restaurants are mostly closed and do takeout. Many people simply have not left their apartments for a month
in China, where no one is allowed in public spaces without surgical masks
https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2020/03/06/coronavirus-impact-l
essons-from-china-and-south-korea-for-the-us/#e9eaeea64751

Chinese authorities have allegedly started forcefully taking away people suspected of having coronavirus from their homes... and taken to camps
China’s central government ordered Wuhan to round up all suspected patients and anyone they are thought to have been in close contact with in mass quarantine camps.
https://thenationonlineng.net/coronavirus-china-in-mass-arrest-of-suff
erers
/



And it looks like the shutdown involves the entire country,


which appears to have stopped the spread from satellite areas of infection:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
China total cases 80,652 new cases 100


So when they say the Chinese measures are draconian, I guess that's what they mean. The Chinese had/ have no soft spot for individuals, their goal appears to have been to stop the spread by any means necessary. And unless they're fudging the numbers, it appears to have worked.

But it's an open question if spread of the virus will resume along with Chinese manufacturing, sales, and services.



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Sunday, March 8, 2020 2:54 AM


This site
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
now says 14% of Active Cases are critical/serious, 6% of Closed cases are fatal.


DP cases have 6 deaths. 245 recovered, 32 serious/critical.

France and Germany surpassed Diamond Princess for 5th and 6th place.

US is in 10th place, with 402 cases and 15 recoveries. 19 deaths.

Canada is 25th place, with 60 cases, 8 recoveries. 0 deaths.

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Sunday, March 8, 2020 3:02 AM

I guess the questions are 1) what does it take to stop the spread of the virus, 2) is the US doing what it needs to do to stop the spread of the virus, and 3) what will be the effect of a worst-case scenario where SARS-COV-2 spreads maximally?

Originally, WHO and the CDC appear to have been following - at least in rhetoric - the ID, trace, and isolate formula for stopping a contagion. While that might work for STDS and needle-sharing diseases, where contacts are of necessity limited, it doesn't look like it would be appropriate for a highly infectious disease like COVID-19. (I liken it to approaching the measles end of infectiousness in its ability to spread, where simply going through the same airport terminal that someone with measles had passed through before can get you sick.) So I find the basic model to be unhelpful.

The other completely necessary but crippled leg in the approach in the US is the criminally incompetent testing. If your approach needs you to ID cases, then you'd better ID them. And for some reason, the medical system was paralyzed when it came to developing tests. There wasn't an actual rule that forbid anyone from doing that. There was a REQUEST - and it was a longstanding precedent - that if you did, you file an emergency use request within 15 days. Maybe people were waiting on the CDC assuming that it was all going to roll out from there smoothly and quickly. But the CDC testing was faulty and severely limited.

But the US looks OMG bad compared to other countries that test thousands and tens of thousands PER DAY. Our failure needs to be relentlessly investigated. BTW the most recent estimate I found was that the US has tested 2300 - TOTAL. Since this all began.

Finally, I assume the US will eventually have national spread, because of our bungled model, our bungled testing, and the example of Italy.

What's the worst-case scenario? SK has done the most testing of all countries and has come up with a fatality rate of 0.6% - which is still 6x more than the flu. Even that low number would overwhelm the medical system. And a medical system overwhelmed might be a medical system infected, where the personnel themselves are unable to do a normal level of work.

It'll be interesting to see how this plays out.

What Taiwan did right:
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/taiwan-reins-spread-coronavirus
-countries-stumble-200307034353325.html


xposted here: http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=18&tid=63484&p=4

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Sunday, March 8, 2020 11:48 AM

Quote:

Coronavirus lingers in rooms and toilets but disinfectants kill it: Study

New research from Singapore's National Centre for Infectious Diseases and DSO National Laboratories has found that patients with the coronavirus extensively contaminate their bedrooms and bathrooms, underscoring the need to routinely clean high-touch surfaces, basins and toilet bowls.

The virus was however killed by twice-a-day cleaning of surfaces and daily cleaning of floors with a commonly used disinfectant - suggesting that current decontamination measures are sufficient as long as people adhere to them.

The research was published on Wednesday in the Journal of the American Medical Association and comes after cases in China where the pathogen spread extensively through hospitals, infecting dozens of healthcare workers and other patients. This led scientists to believe that, beyond catching the infection through coughing, environmental contamination was an important factor in the disease's transmission, but its extent was unclear.

The Singapore researchers looked at cases of three patients who were held in isolation rooms between late January and early February. They collected samples from their rooms on five days over a two-week period.

The room of one patient was sampled before routine cleaning, while the rooms of the other two patients were sampled after disinfection measures.

The patient whose room was sampled before cleaning had the mildest symptoms of the three, experiencing only a cough.

The other two had moderate symptoms: both had coughing and fever, one experienced shortness of breath and the other was coughing up mucus.

Despite this disparity, the patient whose room was sampled before cleaning contaminated 13 of 15 room sites tested, including a chair, the bed rail, a glass window, the floor and light switches. Three of the five toilet sites were also contaminated, including the sink, door handle and toilet bowl

people shedding virus in their stool??
Quote:

- more evidence that stool can be a route of transmission.

Air samples tested negative, but swabs taken from air exhaust outlets were positive - which suggests that virus-laden droplets may be carried by air flows and deposited on vents.

The two rooms that were tested after cleaning had no positive results.


The results, the authors wrote, "suggests the environment as a potential medium of transmission and supports the need for strict adherence to environmental and hand hygiene."


https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/coronavirus-lingers-in-rooms-an
d-toilets-but-disinfectants-kill-it-study


So, hubby and I got into a discussion as what constitutes "airborne" versus "droplet" transmission. When you sneeze, cough, or even talk, small droplets come out of your mouth. If they're large enough they'll fall to the floor, but if they're small enough they can stay suspended in air, slowly evaporating and getting smaller and smaller. At some point, are they too small to be effectively filtered out by N95? The presence of recoverable virus on air vents indicates that the droplets were "floating" and being carried on air currents, but their impaction (or at least the impaction of some of them) indicates enough mass/momentum to overcome airstream changes.



-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

Happy New Year, WISHY. I edited out your psychopathic screed!

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Sunday, March 8, 2020 6:59 PM

You're not going to find a mask that's 100%, especially if you're just putting on a small one like that. There's a reason why they have biohazard suits and they aren't cheap.

If you're considering going out in public with a mask on, at least splurge a few bucks and go with a mold and lead removal mask with the proper more expensive cartridges on it.

https://www.lowes.com/pd/3M-Reusable-Sanding-Valved-Safety-Mask/100002
7149


Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Sunday, March 8, 2020 10:07 PM


Quote:

Fauci: Coronavirus Spread In America 'Not Encouraging'; Says Americans Should Avoid Large Gatherings, Especially If Vulnerable
But, we knew all that..


Quote:

The director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Dr. Anthony Fauci, recommended on Sunday that elderly and vulnerable Americans avoid travel and large crowds as coronavirus gains a foothold in the United States.

In an interview with NBC's "Meet the Press," Fauci emphasized that the elderly and people with "underlying conditions" are "overwhelmingly" more likely to be hit worse by coronavirus, according to NBC News.

"If you are an elderly person with an underlying condition, if you get infected, the risk of getting into trouble is considerable. So it's our responsibility to protect the vulnerable," he said, adding "When I say protect, I mean right now. Not wait until things get worse. Say no large crowds, no long trips. And above all, don't get on a cruise ship."



Yes, but do you know what they're doing in S Korea? You can just ask for a test. Yep, don't need a doctor's order. You drive up, take your own sample in your own car (so no exposure to anyone) and get the results in a few hours. You don't have to pay anyone.

That's why S Korea shows a very low "case fatality rate" ... lots and lots (and lots and lots) of testing, which reveals the true extent of infection.

right now, according to Chris Martensen, people are having problems getting tested, despite the test kits having been made available last week (they said) which should be able to handle roughly 450,000 patients. According to the video, a guy working at a big box home improvement retailer in Washington state developed a dry hacking cough, the retailer sent him to get tested for covid19 but the DOCTOR only tested him for strep and flu- BOTH TESTS NEGATIVE- and wrote a scrip for fever reducer, giving him a 3-day pass from work. DOCTOR told patient he could only be tested if he was hospitalized.

Also, according to Martensen, Washington state is in dire need of masks for their medical personnel. They are scavening masks from contractors, vet and dental offices etc, and making their staff go in naked to treat suspect cases. Totally unprepared.

I have both "procedure" masks and a few N95 respirators, which I got to try to control my allergies when handling compost but which helped when dealing with suspect lead paint. We'll be using the "procedure" masks until the risk rises substantially (eg case detected in our or neighboring city) at that point we'll switch to N95s.

Also
Quote:

Washington State Warns Mail-In Ballot Voters Not To Lick Envelopes
and
Quote:

Fed quarantines U.S. dollars repatriated from Asia on coronavirus caution

Maybe you should handle all of those packages from Amazon carefully!

And finally ...
Quote:

Coronavirus Supply Chain Effects: What to Expect
There are literally dozens of articles about coronavirus' effect on the supply chain.

Did you know that the USA no longer makes ANY penicillin, at all? I've been thumping on the idea of self-sufficient economies for YEARS, literally, because of the effect of a natural or manmade disaster hitting a single point of failure.

Well, we have built our financial structure on very long, very fragile supply chains. If you need 30,000 parts to make a car, and 10,000 of them are hung up in China, how far do you think you're going to get? If you need masks but they're all made in China ... what then? What about if all of your pharmaceuticals are made in India, but half of the starting materials are made in China?




-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

Happy New Year, WISHY. I edited out your psychopathic screed!

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Sunday, March 8, 2020 11:01 PM

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa-coronavirus/
As of March 08, 2020 at 16:55 GMT, there have been 464 confirmed cases and 19 deaths due to coronavirus COVID-19 in the United States.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda75
94740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Total Confirmed
466


Quote:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa-coronavirus/
As of March 07, 2020
373

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#
376

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