A thread for Democrats Only
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UPDATED: Sunday, September 6, 2026 15:36
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And you're going to lie and say that 538 or anybody said it was a cointoss now?
I also predicted this would happen.
Guess I have to put another win in my column.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Brett Kavanaugh has got a problem with his ethics. That Is Not a Surprise!
Just how friendly should US Supreme Court justices be with friends of the court, the amici who file briefs based on their interests in a case where they aren’t litigants?
On Oct. 29, Brian S. Brown, president of the conservative advocacy group National Organization for Marriage (NOMA), tweeted a photo of himself with justices Brett Kavanaugh and Samuel Alito and boasting about a “great day” at the US Supreme Court. The tweet raised alarm bells for court critics.
NOMA regularly files amicus briefs with the court, as it already has this term in some of the most controversial cases before the justices. Brown’s organization, as a “friend of the court,” submitted a filing opposing a finding that Title VII, an anti-employment-discrimination statute, protects gay and transgender people.
The court is considering the issue in three cases and heard arguments on Oct. 8. Less than three weeks later, while justices were still mulling the matters, two of the bench’s conservatives had a friendly meeting with an activist who has made it abundantly clear how he feels they should rule.
While the justices might not necessarily be swayed by anything Brown said when they all hung out, and they probably didn’t discuss their upcoming decision, the mere fact of the meeting casts doubt on their impartiality. And the appearance of fairness, the sense that litigants have a fair chance in court, is key to public confidence in the legal system. That’s why US Code Section 455 provides that “[a]ny justice, judge, or magistrate judge of the United States shall disqualify himself in any proceeding in which his impartiality might reasonably be questioned.”
In response to the revelation of the meeting on social media, Fix the Court, a nonpartisan organization advocating for judicial transparency, sent a letter to the chief justice’s counsel asking that the court either withdraw NOMA’s brief or explain why the justices may continue to sit on the cases given the standard in federal law. The organization’s executive director, Gabe Roth, told Quartz that as of Nov. 1 it had not received a response.
More at https://qz.com/1740845/
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
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Quote:The last presidential election featured one of the more accurate sets of early polls for this point in the cycle: Hillary Clinton led Donald Trump 46.2 percent to 41.2 percent in an average of all polls conducted in November and December 2015, missing the eventual national popular vote margin by about 3 points. (The actual result was Clinton 48.0 percent, Trump 46.0 percent.)
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
And you're going to lie and say that 538 or anybody said it was a cointoss now?
I also predicted this would happen.
Guess I have to put another win in my column.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/should-we-take-these-early-genera
l-election-polls-seriously-no/
That was the 538 website in November 2015. How is Trump doing in November 2019?
Warren 49.7% to Trump 44%
www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_tr
ump_vs_warren-6251.html
Biden 50.1% to Trump 43.4%
www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_tr
ump_vs_biden-6247.html
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
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The late Svetlana Boym, a professor of comparative literature at Harvard, wrote on nostalgia in Atlas of Transformation. She expounded on how nostalgia can swing in both progressive and regressive directions, identifying two types: restorative and reflective.
The former, Boym warns, can breed monsters. It’s mistaking one’s fantasy of a bygone era as reality, resulting in the desire to restore a time and place that never existed. It does not think of itself as nostalgia, Boym writes, but as truth and tradition. This flavor of nostalgia fueled the age of Trump, whose assurances spoke to the insecurities of a sizable demographic of older Americans fearful that a changing world would threaten their well-being. Some fear of change among the aging is understandable; does anyone want to go gently into the good night of their own obsolescence? But Trump’s campaign team harnessed the sinister side of nostalgia, convincing a massive portion of the population to scapegoat various imagined boogeymen for the supposed degradation of the country: immigrants, feminists, intellectuals, scientists.
Reflective nostalgia, however, is far less menacing. It’s a self-aware brand of nostalgia, one that doesn’t always take itself quite seriously. It can be ironic, funny, and irreverent. It knows, Boym says, affective memories cannot and should not prohibit critical thinking. Reflective nostalgia does not oppose progressivism. In fact, it can even support it as it’s an effective tool for assessing the present. The fantasies of the past, Boym tells us, often give us insight into what’s missing in the present and can in turn shape the future.
More at "How to Resist Late-Stage Capitalism — and Other Lessons From Charlotte’s Web"
https://lithub.com/how-to-resist-late-stage-capitalism-and-other-lesso
ns-from-charlottes-web/
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
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Svetlana, huh?
Sounds Russian.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Quote:
Originally posted by second:Quote:The last presidential election featured one of the more accurate sets of early polls for this point in the cycle: Hillary Clinton led Donald Trump 46.2 percent to 41.2 percent in an average of all polls conducted in November and December 2015, missing the eventual national popular vote margin by about 3 points. (The actual result was Clinton 48.0 percent, Trump 46.0 percent.)
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
And you're going to lie and say that 538 or anybody said it was a cointoss now?
I also predicted this would happen.
Guess I have to put another win in my column.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/should-we-take-these-early-genera
l-election-polls-seriously-no/
That was the 538 website in November 2015. How is Trump doing in November 2019?
Warren 49.7% to Trump 44%
www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_tr
ump_vs_warren-6251.html
Biden 50.1% to Trump 43.4%
www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_tr
ump_vs_biden-6247.html
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
That's an article about it, but not a link to an archive that shows it.
I don't put any stock in polls other than watching general trends. They're all lies and manipulated to favor Democrats in their methodology, always. So it's impossible to actually know what Trump's true approval rating is. What you can see is that in spite of all of this impeachment circus and cake, his approval rating is holding steady.
We'll see what happens when Trump is going head to head with a single candidate. The top three candidates for the Democrats are far different platforms to each other and cater to a specific base. The eventual nominee is going to lose a lot of that support.
Only assholes and idiots answer polls anyhow. The proper response when some stranger calls you up out of the blue and asks you who you're going to vote for President is "your mom" and then a prompt hang up.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Quote:If Trump loses, you are going to feel crushed. I'm going to feel crushed, too, because there won't be another round of tax cuts for the wealthy. But the previous Trump tax cuts will still be around because Republican Senators will still be able to filibuster any changes. No matter how wonderful an orator is the next Democrat in the White House, it is the Senate that stops those fancy words from becoming real. The GOP can filibuster so long as they control 41 seats. FDR became a great President not because he talked pretty and made big promises, but because the Senate shifted from Republican to Democrat starting in 1930, two years before FDR was elected.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
So it's impossible to actually know what Trump's true approval rating is.
Every two years there were fewer Republican Senators, which made FDR look more and more like a political genius, but it was not him. It was the voters shifting to different Senators, mainly because the Republican Senators made it obvious to voters that the Great Depression was not going to change the GOP's principles. Nowadays, GOP Senators are smarter about keeping their principles a secret.
(Did I mention that I talked to Sen Cornyn and Cruz? What a sneaky pair of dirtbags -- in private. Those two absolutely know how to keep their real principles a secret.)
53 GOP Senators in 1928 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1928_United_States_Senate_elections
50 GOP Senators in 1930 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1930_United_States_Senate_elections
36 GOP Senators in 1932 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1932_United_States_Senate_elections
25 GOP Senators in 1934 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1934_United_States_Senate_elections
But in 1938, GOP Senators starting returning, more and more, year after year, until they were once again the majority in 1946. Democrats had control for only 14 years, 1932 to 1946.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1938_United_States_Senate_elections
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
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Quote:
Originally posted by second:
If Trump loses, you are going to feel crushed.
Nah. I'll just disappear from paying attention to politics until the next idiot is out like I did with Barry.
I certainly will not behave like you have the last 3 years.
Quote:
(Did I mention that I talked to Sen Cornyn and Cruz? What a sneaky pair of dirtbags -- in private. Those two absolutely know how to keep their real principles a secret.)
Nope. You didn't didn't tell us that lie yet.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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I remember joking to someone as we were writing our book, “Oh, could you imagine if they just stopped having press conferences?” It was kind of unthinkable that that would actually happen in the White House, but it happened — along with countless other departures from what we’d consider “normal.”
So what we’ve learned in that last few years is that many things we considered impossible are, in fact, possible. And the norm violations are just getting worse seemingly every day.
But I would say I’m a little optimistic. In the last month, there have been signs that some Republicans are willing to separate themselves from Trump and I think that’s really crucial right now.
There are a couple of ways this thing could go. One is that there’s a Democratic victory so dominant and so overwhelming that it produces a kind of shock and awe model of social change. The Democrats get what they want, implement big changes, and force the GOP to correct course.
The other thing we could hope for is that Republicans finally break from Trump and reorganize themselves in a way that’s compatible with democracy. I’m not saying this is at all likely, but it’s at least possible. I recognize that Trump isn’t an aberration. In many ways, he’s the logical outcome of the Republican Party.
And yet, if we want our two-party system to work, we need both parties committed to the rules of the game. There’s just no other way forward.
It’s hard to see a way out of this trap. Democratic politics is a game that relies on the good faith of the players involved. If one side decides to ignore the rules for the sake of power, the other side has no choice but to capitulate or respond in kind, which leads to a death spiral of illiberal behavior.
I mean, this is basically our current situation, no?
Yeah, and the only way I see out of it is for the Republicans to face a series of devastating defeats and realize that the path they’re on is no longer viable. Now I understand all the pitfalls of that as a solution. First, it assumes there can be a series of devastating defeats. Second, it assumes that if those losses occur, the losers will interpret it correctly and realize what they’re doing isn’t working as opposed to just doubling down.
So all of this might be unrealistic, and I get that. But someone has to show me an alternative path forward, because I just don’t see it given the limitations of our system. So if something like this doesn’t happen moving forward, I’d be deeply worried about what comes next.
More at www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/11/4/20898605/america-democracy-p
opulism-republicans-daniel-ziblatt
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
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New Poll Shows Democratic Presidential Candidates Have Been Living in a Fantasy World
In 2018, Democratic candidates waded into hostile territory and flipped 40 House districts by avoiding controversial positions, and focusing obsessively on Republican weaknesses.
The Democratic presidential field has largely abandoned that model.
Working from the premise that the country largely agrees with them on everything, or that agreeing with the majority of voters on issues is not necessary to win, the campaign has proceeded in blissful unawareness of the extremely high chance that Trump will win again.
More at www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2019/11/the-2020-election-is-still-wide
-open/
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
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