my platform as presidential candidate - what's yours?
POSTED BY: rue
UPDATED: Monday, June 3, 2024 14:50
VIEWED: 27072
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"I can see where automation has eliminated an awful lot of drudgery .. like carding and spinning thread and weaving cloth."
Not all drudgery is bad. Nobody can work at cutting edge thought-work all day long every day, year after year. Sometimes you need to keep your hands busy while your thoughts drift, and to find a tangible result at the end.
Drudgery gets a bad rap because employers treat people like machines and force them to do nothing but mindless work at top speed, like on an assembly line, without reprieve; or because employers force people to do things that are physically difficult, like picking lettuce or digging ditches, without reprieve.
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True. There is a place for "chores" in the human psyche. People can also take up carding, spinning, weaving ... weeding, hoeing... hammering, planing ... knitting, sewing, cooking, sweeping ... whenever they want. The shouldn't be FORCED to work at maximal effort (whether intellectual or physical) all day, every day.
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Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
"The messy American environment, where most people don't agree, is perfect for people like me. I CAN DO AS I PLEASE." - SECOND
America is an oligarchy http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=57876 .
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Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
So, given that automation is a choice and not an inevitability
It iz not.
A manufacturer will looz the cost game wen hiz competitorz swich to automation and droidz.
I xink the only human production that haz a chans in the future will be art and niche products that benefit from 'hand crafted' az a selling point.
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DUZ XaT SEM RiT TQ YQ? - Jubal Early
http://www.7532020.com .
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China being an alternative to automation isn't going to last forever. The reason they do it is because, at least for quite some time now, the money they were getting paid which was literally pennies on the dollar of what the same labor in the US would cost was enough to at least get by on. That is going to change, and in many ways already has. For example, it looks as though it's nearly just as expensive in 2019 to go see a movie in China as it is in the US. (See my posts in the Captain Marvel thread in the cinema forum to see actual currency conversion figures to back that up). Though their small theaters cost far less than their mega-plexes, the same could also be said of ours. I saw Shazam the Thursday after it opened with my dad and bro where his section 8 housing is and the theater charges $5. $8 if you want pop and popcorn with it.
We're nearly at an end of 3rd world countries that we can exploit for production on this planet. Unless we want to find ourselves paying $200 for a t-shirt at walmart, companies who haven't started making a hard transition toward automation are going to need to start.
And as JO said, all it takes is one company to do it and it's over.
Those that refuse on moral principal will die. Those that refuse because they can't afford to will die.
Between 2000 and 2010, 87% of lost jobs were lost to automation, not trade to other countries such as China or Mexico.
https://money.cnn.com/2017/01/30/news/economy/jobs-china-mexico-automa
tion/
One can only imagine that when the studies come out for 2010 to 2020 that the percentage will remain roughly the same, although the actual number will have increased substantially.
I was pretty pissed to lose my job to low cost labor in India 10 years ago. But to be honest, in 2019 I doubt that any less than 80% of it can't be done automatically today. As it was, I would joke that my job was basically to babysit computers. Besides from a few nightly important tasks that could not yet be handled by automation, my job was mainly to be there in case shit ever hit the fan, as well as monitoring things in real time while also surfing the net and bullshiting with others in the room who were essentially doing the same thing to different parts for 12 hours a night without falling asleep.
I could probably count on my fingers and toes the actual amount of times I had to buckle down and have serious work fixing things, organizing conference calls with high-level customer contacts at 3AM or anything else out of the ordinary. I always performed those tasks excellently and proved my value on quite a few occasion. And being in the market that we were in, we were charging these huge clients a TON of money for our services that allowed babysitters like me to exist in the first place, but I really can't imagine that in 2019 they'd ever have to pay somebody to do what I used to do.
Even if my job had never been shipped to India in the first place, it would have already been eliminated and if I hadn't already been doing something else in the company with more longevity I'd still find myself in the position of being without a job or college degree in 2019 with nearly zero prospects of ever coming close to being able to make what I used to make.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Quote:JO, I just want to bang my head against a wall in frustration.
So, given that automation is a choice and not an inevitability - SIGNY
It iz not.
A manufacturer will looz the cost game wen hiz competitorz swich to automation and droidz.
I xink the only human production that haz a chans in the future will be art and niche products that benefit from 'hand crafted' az a selling point. JO
Why are so many nations in a race to the bottom of the barrel? It's because they have CHOSEN to compete in the world for market share. Just like automation is a choice, competing in the world market is ALSO a choice. There are nations that have chosen not to compete but to have a mostly self-sufficient economy, and Russia is one. For most of its existence, the USA was another ...throughout MOST of its history, the USA has had tariffs n imported manufactured goods ...
Quote:
The tariff history of the United States spans from 1789 to present. The first tariff law passed by the U.S. Congress, acting under the then-recently ratified Constitution, was the Tariff of 1789. Its purpose was to generate revenue for the federal government (to run the government and to pay the interest on its debt), and also to act as a protective barrier around newly starting domestic industries.[1] An Import tax set by tariff rates was collected by treasury agents before goods could be unloaded at U.S. ports.
Tariffs have historically served a key role in the nation's foreign trade policy and as a source of federal income. Tariffs were the greatest (approaching 95% at times) source of federal revenue until the Federal income tax began after 1913. For well over a century the federal government was largely financed by tariffs averaging about 20% on foreign imports.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tariffs_in_United_States_history
Competing in the world market is UNSUSTAINABLE. It sets off a chain of events that inevitably impoverishes more and more and more people, leading to a succession of GLOBAL busts.
Look at a mostly self-reliant economy as a foray into sustainability.
Your economy will stand or fall depending on how well you manage your resources, labor, and investments. Can your economy continue without depending on robbing other nations of their labor or resources? Can your economy continue without squeezing human beings out of it, and causing revolution? It makes sense if you're resource-rich and have few people, but if you're resource-poor and have a lot of people, well... then you need to make use of those people.
-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
"The messy American environment, where most people don't agree, is perfect for people like me. I CAN DO AS I PLEASE." - SECOND
America is an oligarchy http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=57876 .
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JO, Jack ... you've arrived at what I call the basic internal contradiction of capitalism.
Profit is the difference between the value (wage) of the work used to make a good, and the price it's sold at. So the person who builds a Mercedes can only afford a Kia, the person who builds a Kia can only afford a Honda scooter, the person who builds a Honda scooter can only afford a bicycle, the person who builds the bicycle can only afford shoes, and the person who makes the shoes goes barefoot. But it doesn't happen just once. EVERY time the circle cranks around - for food, for water, for clothes, for anything, profit gets sucked up out of the economy into the coffers, potentially until no money is left.
And the 'capitalists' aren't content with -a- profit. The goal is to continually MAXIMIZE profit by paying less and less in wages.
Until you get to automation, where the person who builds nothing can't afford to live.
THIS ISN'T A NEW IDEA. Economists over a hundred years ago were trying to come up with schemes to keep this obviously dead-ended system going. I've referenced them elsewhere, if you want I'll take the time to re-reference them here.
You're stuck on capitalism.
But it's not a natural law, like gravity. As Signy keeps pointing out, IT'S A HUMAN-BUILT SYSTEM - A CHOICE.
Try to take your thoughts out of that choice, or you will keep hitting the same dead end you've been hitting, that economists hit over a century ago.
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Thank you KIKI. I think you've explained the conundrum better that I could.
JO, SIX ... capitalism is ALSO a choice. And like other human systems, it will not last forever. There have been many systems before ... communalism, manorialism, feudalism, imperialism, mercantilism, capitalism, socialism, fascism, financialism, cooperatives ... systems that have come and gone and sometimes reappeared in different guise, and gone again ... today's capitalism itself has morphed into financialism and fascism. You've only ever known whatever economic system that we have, but if you look at history it will broaden out the scope of possibilities since all things change.
*****
So, can we get OFF the topic of automation being "inevitable"? NOTHING is inevitable except death, not even taxes. But if you still feel that automation is inevitable let's agree to disagree, OK?
Let's get back on-track to what we would like for our nation
I already tried to get a discussion going on Universal Basic Income (UBI). IMHO it is fiscally impossible (unless you somehow triple your tax base) and economically counterproductive ... it will not have the hoped-for result of improving people's living standards except in the very short run, but will then lead to generalized price increases and overall inflation. We've seen that happen in Venezuela when Chavez turned over the oil industry's profits to "help" the Venezuelan people without at the same time increasing production and hardening the economy against economic warfare. The same thing happened in Weimar Germany.
But I'm really interested if you see a flaw in my reasoning. If you do I'd be happy to discuss it.
-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
"The messy American environment, where most people don't agree, is perfect for people like me. I CAN DO AS I PLEASE." - SECOND
America is an oligarchy http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=57876 .
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It seems to me that, by lack of reply, that there's no particular flaw in my facts or in my reasoning about UBI?
HOWEVER, don't take this to mean that I think that the wealthy shouldn't be taxed and that the wealth gap shouldn't be narrowed, because right now the wealth gap is obscene. More than obscene, it's unconscionable.
I realize that people need help now, not in some utopian post-globalist/fascist/monopolist future. And I predict that more people will need help in the next year or so, because I believe that we will be facing a major downturn soon (kicked off when one of our many financial bubbles pops).
So yes, we should increase taxes on the rich. We should eliminate the Social Security cap. We should decrease military spending by 10% per year for the next 15 years. We should negotiate for better drug prices, and pop that healthcare bubble by creating Medicare for all, since it is sucking up nearly 20% of our economy with VERY poor results. We SHOULD tariff imports at 20%.
But don't we have anything better to do with the money we've saved/ collected BESIDES "money for nothing"?
Are you telling me that there's nothing else we should be doing that we're currently not doing ... no biodiversity to save and environments to restore? No housing to rehabilitate and make more energy-efficient? No small/urban farms to foster? No schools to repair? No energy-efficient cars to build, no solar panels to develop, and no windmills to raise? No electric grids to update and emergency supplies to lay in? No sick people to tend and homeless to restore?
IF we're going to save/collect this money, shouldn't it be more than a permanent welfare program? How about making it a bridge to something better? Something that will improve our production and make our environment sustainable?
I'd like you to listen to this. It's long, and - as usual (being the disagreeable person that I am) I don't agree with everything they say. I'll tell you where my major disagreements are.
But I hope after listening to this we'll have something more to discuss.
-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
"The messy American environment, where most people don't agree, is perfect for people like me. I CAN DO AS I PLEASE." - SECOND
America is an oligarchy http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=57876 .
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No reply befor kuz I wuz bizzy making stuff.
Kiki & Sig, you 2 are missing the point.
Let me try another imajinary example.
By 2030, Georgia, a punch press operator at an old medium size company, haz manajd to accumulate nearly 2 million $ over her 30 yirz at the company. Partly from being frugal, a big chunk from the lawsuit wen her huzband wuz killed by a freak manual can opener malfunction, partly frum good stock investments, and she rents out 3 uv the 4 flats in the apartment bilding she ownz & livez in.
The company, Amalgamated Punch LTD iz sumwut outmoded, all the equipment iz old fashioned manually operated. Even tho the machinez are well maintained and in perfect working order, they cant compete agenst the latest automated integrated production systemz. APL stayz in bizness only due to the owner giving loyal customerz low enuf prisez to keep them from swiching supplyerz.
Georgia iz getting old. Arthritis iz starting to make it difficult to do the job. She coud retire, but she duznt want to put old man Howard in a bind, kuz therez no way he'd be able to find anybody to do this tedious job for the minimum waje he payz her. The last 10 or 15 youngsterz they hired were gon in less than 2 munths.
So she bringz in her butler droid to do her job.
She tellz the old man 'I'll hav him stacking boardz and packing, just so I dont hav to get up all the time' just to eaze him into it. He'z been agenst droidz and automation in jeneral all along. Sumthing about 'the beast taking over' kuz he'z a fundamentalist kristian and hiz pastor iz a doomzday wakkadoodle, or a con man, or both.
But, az she intended all along, the droid iz soon doing all the work. She still bringz him home every nite to continue the home chorez, but that will chanje next week wen she buyz the latest model, wich can also drive, do any sorts uv repairz around the house, including remodeling. Also, for about 10,000$ extra, it can hav a very realistic human appearence, female or male! fully functional female or male. She can hardly wait to welkum Raul to her home.
2032 - Georgia iz still 'employed' az a punch press operator at APL. Still gets a paycheck every week. Still payz income taxez, social security, insurans. Still playz the ball game betting pool, puts a dollar into the Lotto pool. And a few timez a week, she even stops in to chat with everybody for a few owrz.
Aside from getting hiz hand crunched in the press, Darnell Jr. (they named him after the painfully skinny old janitor hoo retired last yir kuz her old droid iz hardly more than a stick figure) iz doing great. Raul replased the missing hand in like 2 minits with a new & improved wun. He actually runz 3 pressez kuz he can work so much faster than a human. Don and Dieter wanted to retire anyway, so Howard wuz happy to lower hiz payroll cost. So happy that he desided to be a good Kristian and pay them a pension! Not big - just a few thouzand a yir, rite at the limit before it woud count agenst their social security, but it did wonderz for employee moral wen they showed up at the company picnic and blabbed about it, even tho he told them not to tell anybody.
SO!
Wuts the differens? Georgia iznt forsing her creaky old joints to earn her pay anymore, but the work iz still getting dun. She ownz the droid, so she gets the money.
Wut if the company owned the droid insted?
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DUZ XaT SEM RiT TQ YQ? - Jubal Early
http://www.7532020.com .
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PS - Kunstler iz an idiot.
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DUZ XaT SEM RiT TQ YQ? - Jubal Early
http://www.7532020.com .
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