Trump's Budget
POSTED BY: JEWELSTAITEFAN
UPDATED: Monday, July 13, 2026 16:10
VIEWED: 32160
PAGE 17 of 32
Budget. Future Projections.
Last Thursday, 2 May, CBO again updated their projections to reasonably conform more to reality.
This means they had to revise downward, yet again, the projected Deficit for FY2019 compared to their Libtard exaggerations.
And they had to, yet again, revise downward the projected Deficits and Debt for the next 10 years, instead of sticking with their exaggerations.
Their last downward revision was in January.
They are sticking with the same GDP Projections from Jan, even though they always overestimate GDP during Liberal Administrations and always underestimate GDP during Conservative Administrations.
I'll need to copy over the data.
This does not address the FY2020 Budget, which cuts spending further. It was released by OMB on 11 March, and I neglected to update here.
In May 2018 CBO released its Analysis of Trump's FY2019 Federal Budget.
To reconcile it's prior projections with Reality it had to begrudgingly increase the Revenues, decrease the Outlays, Deficit, and Debt, and increase the GDP - at least for FY2018. And these revisions are compared to the delusions they persisted with as of the PRIOR MONTH, or 7 weeks before.
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53884
The new CBO report is from 2 May 2019. It is https://www.cbo.gov/publication/55151
For comparison, I'll post on the same Table as Trump's projections.
The left has President's Federal Budget, FY2019, and then the CBO Analysis from May 2018, and then Budget and Economic Outlook and Updates from May 2019:
Year Rvnu Outl Defct NtGDP || CBR CBOt CBOD CBDb CBGDP || CBR CBOt CBODb CBGDP
2029 8888 8888 888 88888 || 8888 8888 8888 88888 88888 || 5664 6973 33579 31006
2028 5818 6181 363 32602 || 5264 6351 1087 33851 29803 || 5437 6836 32505 29862
2027 5506 5955 450 31089 || 5063 6029 $965 32542 28677 || 5244 6406 31330 28738
2026 5231 5748 517 29647 || 4886 5778 $893 31367 27608 || 4946 6125 30311 27667
2025 4946 5526 579 28253 || 4659 5553 $895 30042 26595 || 4637 5526 29164 26656
2024 4675 5348 672 26900 || 4446 5305 $859 28730 25583 || 4439 5510 28006 25642
2023 4386 5160 774 25605 || 4232 5202 $971 27468 24621 || 4200 5321 26892 24672
2022 4089 4941 852 24369 || 4016 5055 1039 26179 23716 || 4004 5121 25734 23778
2021 3838 4754 916 23194 || 3830 4775 $945 24877 22872 || 3834 4796 24580 22939
2020 3609 4596 987 22067 || 3682 4548 $866 23675 22034 || 3681 4573 23507 22120
2019 3422 4407 984 21003 || 3493 4448 $955 22546 21136 || 3511 4407 22455 21252
2018 3340 4214 873 20029 || 3339 4131 $792 21375 20103 || 3330 4109 21462 20236
2017 3316 3982 665 19177 || 3316 3982 $665 20206 19178
In the left section, Trump's Budget, compared to Obama projections:
The Revenue projections are reduced from the exaggerated amounts Obama assumed. Deficits upcoming are increased due to more realistic projections. For 2017 the figures were updated from Obama's base projections and last year corrections. Trump's GDP is revised up, and Expenditures are revised down.
Trump's Budget accumulates $8.632 Trillion in Deficits by 2028.
Indicating the Federal Debt would add about $13 Trillion in that period.
Which holds true to historical practice. Democrats always exaggerate or overestimate Revenues and downplay or underestimate Expenditures, and Conservative Republicans always underestimate Revenue projections and overestimate Expenditure projections (but Democrats then find some pork to fill in the difference).
In the middle section, the CBO Analysis from May 2018:
The Liberal biased practices of the CBO bloat the Expenditures, and undervalue the Revenues and long-term GDP, thus exaggerate the Deficits. The GDP in the short term is more because even the Liberal bias was unable to deny the reality of Trump's Fiscal Policies and subsequent GDP growth.
The CBO projections bloat the accumulative Deficits to $13.888 Trillion by 2028. The CBO Analysis projects $11.033 Trillion accumulated Deficits by 2028.
Indic
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:With huge budget deficits, the Trump administration has implemented the kind of huge fiscal stimulus followers of John Maynard Keynes pleaded for when unemployment was high — but Republicans blocked.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Trump's Budget accumulates $8.632 Trillion in Deficits by 2028.
Indicating the Federal Debt would add about $13 Trillion in that period.
Contrary to what Donald Trump and his supporters claim, we are not seeing an unprecedented boom. The U.S. economy grew 3.2 percent over the past year, a growth rate we haven’t seen since … 2015. Employment has been growing steadily since 2010, with no break in the trend after 2016. Still, the long stretch of growth has pushed the unemployment rate down to levels not seen in decades. How did that happen, and what does it tell us?
The strength of the economy doesn’t reflect a turnaround of the U.S. trade deficit, which remains high. Nor does it reflect a giant boom in business investment, which proponents of the 2017 tax cut promised, but didn’t happen. What’s driving the economy now is, instead, deficit spending.
Economists often use the cyclically adjusted budget deficit — an estimate of what the deficit would be at full employment — as a rough measure of how much fiscal stimulus the government is providing. By that measure, the federal government is now pumping as much money into the economy as it was seven years ago, when the unemployment rate was more than 8 percent.
The explosion of the budget deficit isn’t just a result of that tax cut. After Republicans took control of the House in 2010, they forced the federal government into austerity, squeezing spending despite high unemployment and low borrowing costs. But once Trump was in the White House, spending was suddenly O.K. again (as long as it didn’t help poor people). In particular, real discretionary spending — expenditures other than those on Social Security, Medicare and other safety net programs — has surged after years of decline.
So there’s really no mystery about the economy’s continuing strength: It’s a Keynesian thing. But what do we learn from the experience?
Politically, we’ve learned that the G.O.P. is deeply hypocritical. After all that Obama-era shrieking about the dangers of debt and the looming threat of inflation, the party cheerfully opened the spigots as soon as it had its own man in the White House. You still see news reports that describe prominent Republicans as “deficit hawks,” and puzzle over their relaxed attitude toward the current flood of red ink. Come on, everyone knows what that was all about.
Deficits are apparently good only if they’re incurred giving huge tax breaks to corporations, which use the money to buy back their stock.
So that’s the story of the economy in 2019. Employment is high and unemployment low, because Republicans have embraced the kind of deficit spending they claimed would destroy America when Democrats held power. But none of that spending is building infrastructure to make us stronger in the long run.
www.nytimes.com/2019/05/06/opinion/republican-economics.html
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
How do you know when nytimes is telling it's biggest lies, so big they are insupportable by actual facts or news? They call it "opinion"
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:Are you claiming that Republicans were not calling for belt tightening of the Federal Government and GOP controlled states in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013? The government should have been spending freely in order to reduce unemployment, but instead, it was holding spending steady rather than increasing it. See the graph:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
How do you know when nytimes is telling it's biggest lies, so big they are insupportable by actual facts or news? They call it "opinion"
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=nRrj
Under Trump, spending is increasing at an ever accelerating rate, completely unlike in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, when the GOP grabbed control of the budget in the House and Senate, slowing down spending in the Republican controlled budget process. All Obama could do is watch the Republicans screw over everybody until Trump came to power. Then it was time to start spending like crazy.
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Updated with today's CBO Report.
I think I will go forward with data from the Monthly Treasury Statement each month. It has already been shown that CBO distorts and Fakes their data, and the more accurate MTS is usually less than a week later.
I won't redo all the past years, but will look up the FY2019 data.
The projected Deficit numbers will continue to be from CBO, since I have not seen Treasury delve into that. I should check OMB.
https://fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/mts/
https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/mts/mts0219.p
df
CBO still has this new format to their report, which again tried to hide the numbers, since highly partisan Deep State CBO was too incompetent to report clearly.
This looks like an interesting resource linky:
https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/major-recurring-reports#9
https://WWW.CBO.Gov/about/press-center
Apr 2018 CBO estimate:
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53821#section2
These data sources actually seem to correlate to the figures in the Budget Statements.
I'll try to post some data to breakdown how the projections progress.
The 1st column is Category and Fiscal Year. Categories are Revenue, Outlays, Surplus/Deficit (estimate) and Surplus/Deficit (Actual, or corrected). Projected is the figure that CBO projected for the FY, most recent at the time of the report. Proportional Percent is the cumulative Deficit compared to the actual FY Total. For the newest year, % Projection is based upon the historical proportion for that month of the cycle.
Each FY has 2 groups. First group is the individual month data. Second group is the cumulative Deficit for that FY so far.
Figures in Billions.
CatFY Oct Nove Dece Janu Febru Marc April MMay June July Augu Sept
Rev16 211 $205 $350 $314 $169 $228 $438 $225 $330 $210 $231 $358
Out16 347 $270 $364 $258 $362 $336 $332 $277 $323 $323 $338 $323
S/D16 -136 -$65 --$14 +$55 --193 --108 +106 --$53 +$06 --113 --107 +$35
Rev16 211 $416 $766 1079 1248 1476 1915 2139 2469 2679 2910 3268
Out16 347 $617 $981 1240 1601 1936 2268 2545 2868 3191 3529 3852
S/D16 -136 -201 --216 --160 --353 --459 --353 --405 --399 --512 --619 --585
Projtd -414 -414 --414 --544 --544 --534 --534 --534 --534 --534 --590 --590
Port% 23.2 34.4 36.9% 27.4 60.3% 78.5 60.3 69.2% 68.2 87.5 106% 100%
Rev17 222 $200 $319 $344 $172 $217 $456 $240 $339 $231 $226 $348
Out17 267 $337 $347 $293 $364 $393 $273 $327 $426 $276 $336 $342
S/D17 --46 --137 --$27 +$51 --192 --176 +182 --$87 --$87 --$45 --109 +$06
Rev17 222 $422 $741 1085 1257 1473 1929 2168 2509 2738 2966 3314
Out17 267 $604 $951 1243 1607 2000 2273 2600 3028 3307 3642 3982
S/D17 --46 --183 --210 --159 --351 --527 --344 --432 --520 --568 --675 --668
Projtd -594 -594 --594 --559 --559 --559 --559 --559 --693 --693 --693 --693
Port% 06.9 27.5 31.6% 23.9 52.8% 79.2 51.7 65.0% 78.2 85.4 101% 100%
Rev18 235 $210 $326 $362 $157 $213 $515 $217 $314 $225 $219 $343
Out18 299 $344 $352 $311 $373 $420 $297 $361 $389 $301 $430 $227
SDEst --62 --134 --$26 +$51 --216 --207 +218 --144 --$75 --$75 --211 +116
Act18 --63 --139 --$23 +$49 --215 --209 +214 --146 --$74 --$77 --214 +118
Rev18 235 $445 $770 1131 1287 1499 2012 2224 2539 2766 2985 3328
Out18 299 $643 $998 1306 1679 2097 2394 2754 3146 3448 3880 4110
SDEst --62 --198 --228 --174 --392 --598 --382 --530 --607 --682 --894 --782
Act18 --63 --202 --225 --176 --391 --600 --386 --532 --606 --683 --897 --779
Projtd -873 -873 --873 --873 --873 --873 --804 --792 --793 --793 --793 --793
%Prjt7 -911 -734 --713 --736 --741 --757 --747 --815 --776 --799 --885 --782
%Prjt6 -271 -588 --609 --644 --648 --765 --640 --766 --890 --779 --845 --782
Port% 08.1 25.9 28.9% 22.6 50.2% 77.0 49.6 74.7% 77.8 87.7 115% 100%
Rev19 253 $205 $312 $340 $171
Out19 353 $408 $324 $331 $398
SDEst --98 --203 --012 +$09 --227
Act19 -100 -205 --013 +$09 --234
Rev19 253 $458 $771 1111 1282
Out19 353 $761 1088 1421 1819
SDEst --98 --303 --317 --310 --
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:Is there anybody here reading this baloney and believing any of it?
Originally posted by second:Quote:Are you claiming that Republicans were not calling for belt tightening of the Federal Government and GOP controlled states in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013? The government should have been spending freely in order to reduce unemployment, but instead, it was holding spending steady rather than increasing it. See the graph:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
How do you know when nytimes is telling it's biggest lies, so big they are insupportable by actual facts or news? They call it "opinion"
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=nRrj
Under Trump, spending is increasing at an ever accelerating rate, completely unlike in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, when the GOP grabbed control of the budget in the House and Senate, slowing down spending in the Republican controlled budget process. All Obama could do is watch the Republicans screw over everybody until Trump came to power. Then it was time to start spending like crazy.
Or thinking this Troll might have a point?
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:Or this manure?
Originally posted by second:Quote:With huge budget deficits, the Trump administration has implemented the kind of huge fiscal stimulus followers of John Maynard Keynes pleaded for when unemployment was high — but Republicans blocked.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Trump's Budget accumulates $8.632 Trillion in Deficits by 2028.
Indicating the Federal Debt would add about $13 Trillion in that period.
Contrary to what Donald Trump and his supporters claim, we are not seeing an unprecedented boom. The U.S. economy grew 3.2 percent over the past year, a growth rate we haven’t seen since … 2015. Employment has been growing steadily since 2010, with no break in the trend after 2016. Still, the long stretch of growth has pushed the unemployment rate down to levels not seen in decades. How did that happen, and what does it tell us?
The strength of the economy doesn’t reflect a turnaround of the U.S. trade deficit, which remains high. Nor does it reflect a giant boom in business investment, which proponents of the 2017 tax cut promised, but didn’t happen. What’s driving the economy now is, instead, deficit spending.
Economists often use the cyclically adjusted budget deficit — an estimate of what the deficit would be at full employment — as a rough measure of how much fiscal stimulus the government is providing. By that measure, the federal government is now pumping as much money into the economy as it was seven years ago, when the unemployment rate was more than 8 percent.
The explosion of the budget deficit isn’t just a result of that tax cut. After Republicans took control of the House in 2010, they forced the federal government into austerity, squeezing spending despite high unemployment and low borrowing costs. But once Trump was in the White House, spending was suddenly O.K. again (as long as it didn’t help poor people). In particular, real discretionary spending — expenditures other than those on Social Security, Medicare and other safety net programs — has surged after years of decline.
So there’s really no mystery about the economy’s continuing strength: It’s a Keynesian thing. But what do we learn from the experience?
Politically, we’ve learned that the G.O.P. is deeply hypocritical. After all that Obama-era shrieking about the dangers of debt and the looming threat of inflation, the party cheerfully opened the spigots as soon as it had its own man in the White House. You still see news reports that describe prominent Republicans as “deficit hawks,” and puzzle over their relaxed attitude toward the current flood of red ink. Come on, everyone knows what that was all about.
Deficits are apparently good only if they’re incurred giving huge tax breaks to corporations, which use the money to buy back their stock.
So that’s the story of the economy in 2019. Employment is high and unemployment low, because Republicans have embraced the kind of deficit spending they claimed would destroy America when Democrats held power. But none of that spending is building infrastructure to make us stronger in the long run.
www.nytimes.com/2019/05/06/opinion/republican-economics.html
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Post under construction.
Budget. Trump's FY2020, with forecasting and projections to 2029
From 11 March 2019, Office of Management and Budget.
The new CBO report is from January 2019. It is https://www.cbo.gov/publication/54918
For comparison, I'll post on the same Table as Trump's projections. This is in the middle section.
The left has President's Federal Budget, FY2019, and then the CBO Budget and Economic Outlook and Updates from January 2019, and then Trump's FY2020 Budget and Projections from OMB on 11 March 2019.
Year Rvnu Outl Defct NtGDP || CBR CBOt CBOD CBDb CBGDP || Rvnu Outl Defct FdGFD NtGDP
2029 8888 8888 888 88888 || 5672 7042 1370 33681 31006 || 6292 6495 0202 31506 34727
2028 5818 6181 363 32602 || 5446 6881 1435 32581 29862 || 5939 6447 0508 31195 33116
2027 5506 5955 450 31089 || 5254 6446 1192 31353 28738 || 5608 6122 0513 30695 31580
2026 5231 5748 517 29647 || 4956 6160 1204 30331 27667 || 5323 5899 0577 30128 30116
2025 4946 5526 579 28253 || 4647 5859 1212 29175 26656 || 5040 5671 0631 29386 28700
2024 4675 5348 672 26900 || 4448 5539 1091 28020 25642 || 4753 5453 0700 28582 27326
2023 4386 5160 774 25605 || 4208 5347 1139 26922 24672 || 4421 5330 0909 27645 26007
2022 4089 4941 852 24369 || 4012 5140 1128 25759 23778 || 4129 5177 1049 26544 24753
2021 3838 4754 916 23194 || 3841 4814 0973 24598 22939 || 3877 4945 1068 25333 23558
2020 3609 4596 987 22067 || 3686 4589 0903 23522 22120 || 3645 4746 1101 24057 22410
2019 3422 4407 984 21003 || 3515 4412 0897 22465 21252 || 3438 4529 1092 22776 21289
2018 3340 4214 873 20029 || 3329 4108 0779 21461 20236 || 3330 4109 0779 21462 20236
2017 3316 3982 665 19177 ||
In the left section, Trump's Budget, compared to Obama projections:
The Revenue projections are reduced from the exaggerated amounts Obama assumed. Deficits upcoming are increased due to more realistic projections. For 2017 the figures were updated from Obama's base projections and last year corrections. Trump's GDP is revised up, and Expenditures are revised down.
Trump's Budget accumulates $8.632 Trillion in Deficits by 2028.
Indicating the Federal Debt would add about $13 Trillion in that period.
Which holds true to historical practice. Democrats always exaggerate or overestimate Revenues and downplay or underestimate Expenditures, and Conservative Republicans always underestimate Revenue projections and overestimate Expenditure projections (but Democrats then find some pork to fill in the difference).
In the middle section, the CBO Analysis from May 2018:
The Liberal biased practices of the CBO bloat the Expenditures, and undervalue the Revenues and long-term GDP, thus exaggerate the Deficits. The GDP in the short term is more because even the Liberal bias was unable to deny the reality of Trump's Fiscal Policies and subsequent GDP growth.
The CBO projections bloat the accumulative Deficits to $13.888 Trillion by 2028. The CBO Analysis projects $11.033 Trillion accumulated Deficits by 2028.
Indicating the Federal Debt would add about $16 Trillion in that period.
Which would exaggerate by $3 Trillion what Trump's Budget projected.
The section to the right is the CBO Analysis of Trump's Budget, from January 2019.
Because the numbers from BEA are not used in the President's Federal Budget during this century, the relevant figures had to be interpolated. For this reason the 20,029 would be replaced by 20,103. An increase of $74 Billion for 2018.
Well, that link at the top of this post does not correlate to the data from any of the past 2 dozen Budget statements.
But it does provide link to source data at BEA.
Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
As can be seen, actual figures have GDP far outpacing the forecasts, as well as Outlays are less than any projections, Deficit for 2018 below any of these projections.
For FY2020: As u
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:JewelStaiteFan, the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis says you are wrong, as usual:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Is there anybody here reading this baloney and believing any of it?
Or thinking this Troll might have a point?
Trump has a $1.2 Trillion larger budget per year than Obama. For years, Obama had the same amount, with no raises. Trump gets a raise every year.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=nRrj
Government total expenditures, Billions of Dollars, Quarterly, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
2010-01-01 5820.399
2010-04-01 5862.866
2010-07-01 5811.144
2010-10-01 5839.370
2011-01-01 5859.500
2011-04-01 5918.370
2011-07-01 5837.918
2011-10-01 5872.701
2012-01-01 5834.960
2012-04-01 5831.685
2012-07-01 5801.406
2012-10-01 5901.705
2013-01-01 5832.062
2013-04-01 5848.976
2013-07-01 5867.311
2013-10-01 5868.146 This is how much Obama spent per year
2019-01-01 7092.825 This is how much Trump spends per year: $1.2 Trillion more.
That extra $1.2 Trillion Trump has explains the difference with Obama.
The Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis is responsible for advising the Bank president on matters of economic policy. The Division monitors the economic and financial literature and produces research in the areas of money and banking, macroeconomics, and international and regional economics.
https://research.stlouisfed.org/about.html
Quote:Are you claiming that Republicans were not calling for belt tightening of the Federal Government and GOP controlled states in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013? The government should have been spending freely in order to reduce unemployment, but instead, it was holding spending steady rather than increasing it. See the graph:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
How do you know when nytimes is telling it's biggest lies, so big they are insupportable by actual facts or news? They call it "opinion"
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=nRrj
Under Trump, spending is increasing at an ever accelerating rate, completely unlike in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, when the GOP grabbed control of the budget in the House and Senate, slowing down spending in the Republican controlled budget process. All Obama could do is watch the Republicans screw over everybody until Trump came to power. Then it was time to start spending like crazy.
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:crickets?
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:Is there anybody here reading this baloney and believing any of it?
Originally posted by second:Quote:Are you claiming that Republicans were not calling for belt tightening of the Federal Government and GOP controlled states in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013? The government should have been spending freely in order to reduce unemployment, but instead, it was holding spending steady rather than increasing it. See the graph:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
How do you know when nytimes is telling it's biggest lies, so big they are insupportable by actual facts or news? They call it "opinion"
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=nRrj
Under Trump, spending is increasing at an ever accelerating rate, completely unlike in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, when the GOP grabbed control of the budget in the House and Senate, slowing down spending in the Republican controlled budget process. All Obama could do is watch the Republicans screw over everybody until Trump came to power. Then it was time to start spending like crazy.
Or thinking this Troll might have a point?
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME